Proposal: J.T. Miller to TOR

[shortfuze]

Was thinking something along the lines of this...

I get the JT Miller to Toronto sentiment from the Leafs standpoint. He's certainly an upgrade on Kerfoot; however the Leafs are already going to have problems retaining Kerfoot beyond this season. Any deal with Toronto has to come at a minimum of 33% retention to match Kerfoot, and if Toronto's going to "dig deep", it should be 50% so as to create a situation where the Leafs can realistically plan on keeping him next year.

With respect to Toronto's prospects. Sandin isn't one anymore. He's an everyday player, that the organization likely overvalues given that he has Kyle Dubas' first draft pick. If the Canucks want a dman in the deal, it'd likely be Timothy Liljegren heading the other way.'

Ultimately, if there is a JT Miller to Toronto deal, I'd suspect it looks something along the lines of:

Miller at 50% for

- Toronto's 1st
- Timothy Liljegren
- ONE of Nick Robertson or Rodion Amirov
- Alex Kerfoot or Nick Ritchie
- Possibly a Travis Dermott <-> Luke Schenn type of swap if it's Nick Ritchie going the other way.

That's a current 1st, a former 1st who's ready to play (Liljegren), a guy likely valued equivalent to a 1st (Robertson/Amirov), and either a contributing middle-aged roster player (Kerfoot), or a cap-dump / project.

3- 1sts in that deal? Seems like a lot.

 

[shortfuze]

It’s not bad but that offer could be beat easily with one good prospect. If NYR include Schneider we take that deal over this. Again it’s not bad though

Would the rangers actually trade Schneider for Miller though? Teams don’t generally trade away top prospects.

 

[deckercky]

Sandin is a blue chip prospect that has is already a full time NHLer on an elite team.

Just to put it into perspective:

Sandin in a redraft is closer to 1st overall than he is to 29th(where the Leafs took him)

Robertson in a redraft is also a mid 1st rounder.

The Leafs 1st this year, which will hopefully be 32nd(but 2nd round value either way)

And Kerfoot who can be flipped for more assets.

So, if I was getting 2 top 15 pick values in recent drafts, plus another 1st, plus another valuable asset that can be flipped, that's a huge hit for a team trading the one player.

IN saying that, I'm sure there are teams that will beat this offer, but this is a huge haul for the Canucks.

If the Canucks got Sandin + Robertson + Kerfoot + Leafs 1st for Miller, I wouldn't be disappointed. Its not a perfect trade, and I'd hope for more (in particular, the aim would be to get one piece that's higher end) but it has quality pieces in the right range for value for trading Miller. That's roughly the return I expect Miller to go for (I've been saying 3 1sts in value for a long time).

 

[seanlinden]

It’s not bad but that offer could be beat easily with one good prospect. If NYR include Schneider we take that deal over this. Again it’s not bad though

I guess that comes down to where / how far you think Vancouver is from being a contending team.

Generally, teams that are sellers (i.e. bad) don't view themselves as one 20 year old piece away from being contenders (obvious exceptions for the top draft picks who pan out immediately). Generally, if you're rebuilding -- the focus is to get more quality into the system first, and then fill positional holes second.

As for the Rangers, I'm looking at a team that is REALLY young. Of the 9 defencemen on their roster + LTIR, 5 of them are on ELCs, and 2 of them are 23 in the first year of their post-ELC deal. Their goalies are 26 and 25. They only have 2 forwards of significance older than 28, and they're both 30.

Personally, I don't think it makes sense for the Rangers to be parting with integral future pieces like Schneider for short term gain. I also don't think it makes sense for the Canucks to pin their hopes on one 20 year old limited-upside defenceman; versus a package of potentially premier assets.

 

[bandwagonesque]

youre right thats the only problem

I love these responses. "Oh yeah? Well, I said some other stuff that wasn't bullshit!"

Have you ever just tried making a post where the whole thing was coherent?

 

[BCNate]

I guess that comes down to where / how far you think Vancouver is from being a contending team.

Generally, teams that are sellers (i.e. bad) don't view themselves as one 20 year old piece away from being contenders (obvious exceptions for the top draft picks who pan out immediately). Generally, if you're rebuilding -- the focus is to get more quality into the system first, and then fill positional holes second.

As for the Rangers, I'm looking at a team that is REALLY young. Of the 9 defencemen on their roster + LTIR, 5 of them are on ELCs, and 2 of them are 23 in the first year of their post-ELC deal. Their goalies are 26 and 25. They only have 2 forwards of significance older than 28, and they're both 30.

Personally, I don't think it makes sense for the Rangers to be parting with integral future pieces like Schneider for short term gain. I also don't think it makes sense for the Canucks to pin their hopes on one 20 year old limited-upside defenceman; versus a package of potentially premier assets.

Nobody's championship window stays open as long as they would like to think it does. That is one thing that has always rung true in sports. If a team feels they are a JT Miller away from going on 2 cup runs in the next two years, mortgaging a piece the future may make a lot of sense. Not going all in does not guarantee that you get better chances down the road, as team dynamics, performance, strength of competition and luck all play into it.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

That would be a ridiculous steal for the Canucks.

Allvin should get GM of the year if he can go out and get that offer let alone top it with another team as some are suggesting. It's the Leafs' best young player, 1st rounder, a top prospect, and a 40-50 point winger.

Those are the types of pieces you go out and include in a package for a core piece. Not a 1 1/2 year rental winger.

It's understandable if the Canucks want different pieces. But the package itself is a complete overpayment and the Leafs could get a better player from another team if they gut their pool like that.

 

[John Johnson]

In what world is Sandin, Robertson and a 1st not a quality quality package. Leafs would never do this regardless.

Its a quality package, just for a different player.

 

[Paddys Pub]

So damn sensitive are we leaf fans? Lol
Yes. It’s a good package.
Some team would be jazzed for it.
Unfortunately, it offers a bunch of what the Canucks don’t need, and a really late 1st.
So if you are thinking about what the Canucks actually need, it’s not great.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

Would the rangers actually trade Schneider for Miller though? Teams don’t generally trade away top prospects.

Possibly, who knows! They’re in a position to go for it and players of Miller’s caliber with 2 years left at an insanely good contract don’t come along very often. Going to be very very interesting to see

 

[Hoglander]

So leaf fans are offering the best of the pieces that they don't need, then are refusing to take into account that they aren't pieces Vancouver needs either, then gets all defensive when Vancouver passes.

If it isn't based around a C or RHD, then there is no deal.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

That would be a ridiculous steal for the Canucks.

Allvin should get GM of the year if he can go out and get that offer let alone top it with another team as some are suggesting. It's the Leafs' best young player, 1st rounder, a top prospect, and a 40-50 point winger.

Those are the types of pieces you go out and include in a package for a core piece. Not a 1 1/2 year rental winger.

It's understandable if the Canucks want different pieces. But the package itself is a complete overpayment and the Leafs could get a better player from another team if they gut their pool like that.

Not only do we want completely different pieces (A center or top 4 RHD) we want a Top prospect in return.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

I guess that comes down to where / how far you think Vancouver is from being a contending team.

Generally, teams that are sellers (i.e. bad) don't view themselves as one 20 year old piece away from being contenders (obvious exceptions for the top draft picks who pan out immediately). Generally, if you're rebuilding -- the focus is to get more quality into the system first, and then fill positional holes second.

As for the Rangers, I'm looking at a team that is REALLY young. Of the 9 defencemen on their roster + LTIR, 5 of them are on ELCs, and 2 of them are 23 in the first year of their post-ELC deal. Their goalies are 26 and 25. They only have 2 forwards of significance older than 28, and they're both 30.

Personally, I don't think it makes sense for the Rangers to be parting with integral future pieces like Schneider for short term gain. I also don't think it makes sense for the Canucks to pin their hopes on one 20 year old limited-upside defenceman; versus a package of potentially premier assets.

Very fair points. From the NYR perspective, they do have Fox-Trouba(who’s going to be there at least 2 more seasons)-Lundqvist.

So they are indeed trading from a position of massive strength.

I totally get the quantity point you’re saying and perhaps your right. I just think we’re 2-3 years away from being yearly contenders

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

That would be a ridiculous steal for the Canucks.

Allvin should get GM of the year if he can go out and get that offer let alone top it with another team as some are suggesting. It's the Leafs' best young player, 1st rounder, a top prospect, and a 40-50 point winger.

Those are the types of pieces you go out and include in a package for a core piece. Not a 1 1/2 year rental winger.

It's understandable if the Canucks want different pieces. But the package itself is a complete overpayment and the Leafs could get a better player from another team if they gut their pool like that.

I'd love to hear what "better player" you could get for that package, I really would.

 

[4thline]

I respect Nuck fans that don't like it for the positional/ style mix.

But any moron that said anything resembling "quantity not quality" or "spare parts" should face a one month ban, or be forced to read through every archived 08-12 era trade thread that featured 5+ assets with none being better than a 3rd rounder.

That's a far better package than it took to get Stone or Pacioretty

 

[firstemperor]

On the Leafs end, this is awful. Trade our best young prospect, another 1st, best young graduating D prospect (when defense should be our premium market buy on the trade market regardless), and a very good player in Kerfoot (who was great in the playoffs last year) for JT Miller, while a great player, is still a a 1.5 year rental who's stock is at its highest, partly because he's getting a lot of primetime minutes on a non-competitive team.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I'd love to hear what "better player" you could get for that package, I really would.

It not hard to figure out. Just think of the players who are better than Miller and you should be able to figure it out using logic. Now McDavid is a much better player than Miller, but that package would fail to get him that is the reason for logic.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Leafs have nothing of interest.

No, you’re right… the 4th best team based on p% and 15th ranked farm system have nothing to offer.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

It not hard to figure out. Just think of the players who are better than Miller and you should be able to figure it out using logic. Now McDavid is a much better player than Miller, but that package would fail to get him that is the reason for logic.

Oh bud it is hard to figure out, since you seem to be so knowledgable, why don't you share your "expertise"?

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

No, you’re right… the 4th best team based on p% and 15th ranked farm system have nothing to offer.

Nothing that we would be keen on, he didn't say nothing to offer he said nothing of interest, reading comprehension is hard isn't it?

 

[Nylanderthal]

Cost to upgrade from Kerfoot to miller isn’t Sandin + Robertson + 1st pick. I get that Vancouver fans want 5 firsts of value including the second coming of Bobby Orr, but a a right shot as part of the haul.
I would suggest the deal that gets made is probably Ritchie instead of Kerfoot and maybe Niemela instead of Robertson and drop Sandin. Maybe a dermott for Schenn swap but JT miller as good as he is isn’t getting the kind of demands some Canuck fans here yammer on about needing to get.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

On the Leafs end, this is awful. Trade our best young prospect, another 1st, best young graduating D prospect (when defense should be our premium market buy on the trade market regardless), and a very good player in Kerfoot (who was great in the playoffs last year) for JT Miller, while a great player, is still a a 1.5 year rental who's stock is at its highest, partly because he's getting a lot of primetime minutes on a non-competitive team.

So his minutes increased and so did his PPG, so he stepped up, and that's a negative? Ok then.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Oh bud it is hard to figure out, since you seem to be so knowledgable, why don't you share your "expertise"?

Why? You just said it is too hard to figure out. I gave you the method already, and I warned you not to jump to players like McDavid, but rather to use logic. What more can I do?

 

[Nylanderthal]

Nothing that we would be keen on, he didn't say nothing to offer he said nothing of interest, reading comprehension is hard isn't it?

there’s plenty of good assets a rebuilding team would be interested in, if you can get your head outta your ass about who the team is sending the offer.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

Why? You just said it is too hard to figure out. I gave you the method already, and I warned you not to jump to players like McDavid, but rather to use logic. What more can I do?

Oh is it that hard to come up with a player? Hmmmm maybe because there isn't one? Yahhhh that feels more accurate. That was my point.