Speculation: J.T. Miller for Kevin Fiala +

[AKL]

Olli Jokinen was a PPG playing with a horrible cast in Florida, greener pastures and better linemates didnt equate to better stats. Some players do better being the big fish in a small pond. Theres no guarantee Fiala would produce more in another environment.

Weird assumption to make when most good players produce more playing with other good players as opposed to worse players.

easy to cherry pick stats for a narrative. Fiala is a one dimensional sniper. Miller is a 2-way forward. Of course when you cherry pick just goals its going to make Fiala look better as thats his best and main attribute he brings to the table. He doesn't bring much else.

I can do that too:

2019-2022 Fiala: 30 goals even strength
2019-2022 Miller: 34 goals even strength

Looks like Fiala's main attribute is only better because he gets more opportunity on the PP since only Kaprizov is ahead of him for primary puck handler. Whereas Miller is our 3rd primary handler.

Like I said before, why trade the younger RFA Fiala for Miller if he has the same value? Why take on the older player thats a UFA? They hold the same value according to you. So why not keep the younger "cost controlled" player.

Honestly I have to commend you. You've done a pretty good job explaining why the value difference is very little, maybe even nothing. It seems you're saying Miller is more of a passenger offensively, rather than the drivers that Pettersson, Boeser, and yes, Fiala, are. It seems you've also covered that Fiala's production is extremely close to Miller's at even strength, despite playing with much worse linemates (and again, Miller is third fiddle, Fiala has been first). Simultaneously, you've also shown us that Fiala is a much better special teams producer. And the icing on the cake is you even touched on the UFA/RFA status of the two. Well done.

I'll also add that during that time, Miller was playing 15.5 minutes at even strength and 3.75 minutes on the PP, while Fiala was playing 13.5 minutes at even strength and 2.75 minutes on the PP. So when it comes to /60 rates of scoring, Fiala is at .95 goals and 2.19 points, and Miller is at .88 goals and 2.23 points. That's 5v5 obviously, because if you included PP rates it wouldn't be close, as we've discussed previously.

Fun fact, Boeser is at .73 and 1.96, so he produces at an even lower rate than Fiala.

So sure, Miller can player center and he's better defensively, but the gap really isn't there in the way Canucks fans want it to be.

And again, because I know it's going to get overlooked by your crowd:

Since the start of the 19-20 season-
Miller has 49 goals in 141 games with his most common linemates being Elias Petterson and Brock Boeser

Fiala has 46 goals in 132 games with his most common linemates being Marcus Johansson, Ryan Hartman, Freddy Gaudreau, Marcus Foligno, and Joel Eriksson Ek

 

[thestonedkoala]

One of the speculations is that Benning is trying to fix the locker room and chemistry. He was sniffing around Bjugstad apparently earlier this year and Bjugstad is signed cheap. He's also a good locker room guy. Bjugstad + Fiala + 2nd?

 

[Canadian Canuck]

One of the speculations is that Benning is trying to fix the locker room and chemistry. He was sniffing around Bjugstad apparently earlier this year and Bjugstad is signed cheap. He's also a good locker room guy. Bjugstad + Fiala + 2nd?

Nope. Need a RHD back. Love Fiala though.

I'd do the Carlo+Debrusk+ deal I saw in another thread from a Bruins fan.

 

[McJedi]

I’d go differently here. Ask for Boldy and Addison instead. Go the true rebuild route. If a pick needs to be added, then add it.

JT Miller for Boldy and Addison.

 

[elitepete]

I’d go differently here. Ask for Boldy and Addison instead. Go the true rebuild route. If a pick needs to be added, then add it.

JT Miller for Boldy and Addison.

If the Canucks did something like this, they could retain 50% to maximize the return and increase the number of bidders.

 

[keppel146]

I’d go differently here. Ask for Boldy and Addison instead. Go the true rebuild route. If a pick needs to be added, then add it.

JT Miller for Boldy and Addison.

That’s not going to happen

 

[Bazeek]

I’d go differently here. Ask for Boldy and Addison instead. Go the true rebuild route. If a pick needs to be added, then add it.

JT Miller for Boldy and Addison.

Even if Minnesota's cap situation didn't kill this idea (which it would), they're not going to trade Boldy, Rossi, Addison, Lambos, etc.

 

[Legegendsofthenorth]

I’d go differently here. Ask for Boldy and Addison instead. Go the true rebuild route. If a pick needs to be added, then add it.

JT Miller for Boldy and Addison.

Oh wow, can the Wild throw in Rossi too

 

[heisenbergsitti]

Oh wow, can the Wild throw in Rossi too

No!

 

[RandV]

Even if Minnesota's cap situation didn't kill this idea (which it would), they're not going to trade Boldy, Rossi, Addison, Lambos, etc.

Just talking in theory, Minnesota isn't going to have 4 prospects that are out of reach for what Miller would bring to the table now. This is HFBoards being classic HFBoards, where every top/good prospect is going to meet their full potential and before being tested in the NHL is worth their weight in gold.

In my opinion there's two sides here. First, real value. Miller has the same type of value as Goodrow and Coleman did for Tampa, except he's a top line player instead of middle six. An $8M PPG player in his prime making $5.25M for this season and next. For a team trying to win the Stanley Cup, that has immense value. Top 10 picks do get traded from time to time and this is probably the type of situation that warrants it.

But then the second side is the reality, this is Jim Benning trying to make a trade to save his job. He's not going to pick the right direction or negotiate the best value out of a deal, if Miller is the guy he's trying to trade and he's talking to Minnesota then yeah it will probably for something like Miller and a 2nd for Fiala.

 

[Halakitlikethat]

Canucks need help on D

 

[2014nyr]

depending on the + seems a little underwhelming if i'm van...but maybe i'm underrating fiala. also seems like van is just looking to move miller and maybe looking to get something done moreso than waiting out the market for a max return.

not sure what van would be interested in that we're ok parting with, but damn i wish the rangers were at least making a play here.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Miller wouldn't fit beyond his current contract, which is probably the main reason for skepticism from Minnesota fans on this one.

Would Fiala though? 2 years of Miller is better, than 1 year of Fiala.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

depending on the + seems a little underwhelming if i'm van...but maybe i'm underrating fiala. also seems like van is just looking to move miller and maybe looking to get something done moreso than waiting out the market for a max return.

not sure what van would be interested in that we're ok parting with, but damn i wish the rangers were at least making a play here.

one article i read said the + benning asked about was filip johansson.

 

[Bazeek]

Just talking in theory, Minnesota isn't going to have 4 prospects that are out of reach for what Miller would bring to the table now. This is HFBoards being classic HFBoards, where every top/good prospect is going to meet their full potential and before being tested in the NHL is worth their weight in gold.

In my opinion there's two sides here. First, real value. Miller has the same type of value as Goodrow and Coleman did for Tampa, except he's a top line player instead of middle six. An $8M PPG player in his prime making $5.25M for this season and next. For a team trying to win the Stanley Cup, that has immense value. Top 10 picks do get traded from time to time and this is probably the type of situation that warrants it.

But then the second side is the reality, this is Jim Benning trying to make a trade to save his job. He's not going to pick the right direction or negotiate the best value out of a deal, if Miller is the guy he's trying to trade and he's talking to Minnesota then yeah it will probably for something like Miller and a 2nd for Fiala.

No, I'm pretty sure they would. In fact, it's probably more than 4, I just doubt Vancouver would be interested in Wallstedt.

This isn't a question of value. Minnesota needs to survive the next three seasons where they have dead cap space of $12m, $15m and $15m. The only realistic way to do that is to promote prospects into roles that are currently held by more expensive players. The only way to do that is to hang onto the best prospects in their pool. The worst thing they could do is trade one of those top prospects for a player that'll walk in 1.5 years because they won't be able to offer him an extension.

There's also the fact that Minnesota needs this to be a cap-in, cap-out trade: they will need to send at least as much cap out as they have coming in. Beyond Rask (who's contract isn't big enough) they don't a $5m cap dump to send back, so any potential deal is going to have to be built around a roster player. That's why the discussion immediately went to Fiala who, I agree, makes an awkward target for Vancouver. That's just what the parameters dictate here; it's the exact same discussion we had all summer around Eichel.

Would Fiala though? 2 years of Miller is better, than 1 year of Fiala.

Unfortunately no, Fiala won't fit either at this point. I don't like it, but what's done is done. And while I don't think 2 years of Miller for 1 of Fiala is a bad swap (if it's even possible), long term it could be better to take the picks and prospects you could get for him instead. Under the circumstances I think both options are appealing.

 

[Sota Popinski]

I don't think Lambos or Addison are off the table. I'm not sure if Guerin adds them to Fiala, though.

Despite JT Miller having more points, he is playing with two players that are way better than anyone Fiala has been on a line with. GSVA shows Fiala as slightly better, I'm not sure of the other fancy stats. Both players have one more year to UFA after this one, but I'll give a value bump to Miller because he's under contract.

I would add Lambos to Fiala. I just don't think Guerin sees Miller as the piece to make us a contender so I don't think he would.

 

[keppel146]

I don't think Lambos or Addison are off the table. I'm not sure if Guerin adds them to Fiala, though.

Despite JT Miller having more points, he is playing with two players that are way better than anyone Fiala has been on a line with. GSVA shows Fiala as slightly better, I'm not sure of the other fancy stats. Both players have one more year to UFA after this one, but I'll give a value bump to Miller because he's under contract.

I would add Lambos to Fiala. I just don't think Guerin sees Miller as the piece to make us a contender so I don't think he would.

IMO the only way we are adding a prospect like that is if Van is sending back their 1st unprotected. We all know that’s not happening.

 

[McJedi]

Oh wow, can the Wild throw in Rossi too

Why? Boldy + Addison should be sufficient. JT Miller is a great player but he’s only got 1.75 years left on that deal before UFA.

 

[McJedi]

Even if Minnesota's cap situation didn't kill this idea (which it would), they're not going to trade Boldy, Rossi, Addison, Lambos, etc.

You’d rather trade Fiala +? Ok. But that’s crazy. Fiala is already a very good player for you.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

You’d rather trade Fiala +? Ok. But that’s crazy. Fiala is already a very good player for you.

for cap reasons that he mentioned, yes we would rather trade Fiala. if we trade prospects and picks, then both Fiala and Miller walk as we can hardly afford our current roster let alone both getting raises next year and the following after that. by the looks of it, Zuccarello, Fiala and Greenway are all going to be gone no matter if we like it or not. that is the issue with the upcoming deadcap we have the next 3 years. it has been mentioned time and time again and will restrict the wild from doing much.

 

[Bazeek]

Why? Boldy + Addison should be sufficient. JT Miller is a great player but he’s only got 1.75 years left on that deal before UFA.

Because.

 

[AKL]

No, I'm pretty sure they would. In fact, it's probably more than 4, I just doubt Vancouver would be interested in Wallstedt.

This isn't a question of value. Minnesota needs to survive the next three seasons where they have dead cap space of $12m, $15m and $15m. The only realistic way to do that is to promote prospects into roles that are currently held by more expensive players. The only way to do that is to hang onto the best prospects in their pool. The worst thing they could do is trade one of those top prospects for a player that'll walk in 1.5 years because they won't be able to offer him an extension.

There's also the fact that Minnesota needs this to be a cap-in, cap-out trade: they will need to send at least as much cap out as they have coming in. Beyond Rask (who's contract isn't big enough) they don't a $5m cap dump to send back, so any potential deal is going to have to be built around a roster player. That's why the discussion immediately went to Fiala who, I agree, makes an awkward target for Vancouver. That's just what the parameters dictate here; it's the exact same discussion we had all summer around Eichel.


Unfortunately no, Fiala won't fit either at this point. I don't like it, but what's done is done. And while I don't think 2 years of Miller for 1 of Fiala is a bad swap (if it's even possible), long term it could be better to take the picks and prospects you could get for him instead. Under the circumstances I think both options are appealing.

I would even go as far as saying Beckman and Khusnutdinov are off the table for a piece like Miller.

 

[AKL]

I don't think Lambos or Addison are off the table. I'm not sure if Guerin adds them to Fiala, though.

Despite JT Miller having more points, he is playing with two players that are way better than anyone Fiala has been on a line with. GSVA shows Fiala as slightly better, I'm not sure of the other fancy stats. Both players have one more year to UFA after this one, but I'll give a value bump to Miller because he's under contract.

I would add Lambos to Fiala. I just don't think Guerin sees Miller as the piece to make us a contender so I don't think he would.

Fancy stats like xGAR, xWAR, RAPM show Fiala as better. Per 60 goals and points show Fiala as equal. And remember Fiala is doing this with bottom six players. So is Lambos equal to the difference in value between winger and center? Short answer is no.

 

[wetcoast]

Terrible target and bad value so pretty much spot on for dim jim and dumb f*** Canucks

I agree on this, Fiala isn't the type of player the Canucks need but I also don't see Miller getting "the value" that most Canucks fans would want either.

 

[wetcoast]

I’d go differently here. Ask for Boldy and Addison instead. Go the true rebuild route. If a pick needs to be added, then add it.

JT Miller for Boldy and Addison.

If the Canucks did something like this, they could retain 50% to maximize the return and increase the number of bidders.

I'd like to see both things but I doubt that Minny gives up Boldy and Benning is the symptom, ownership doesn't want a rebuild they believe in a retool which isn't happening given the SC structure, age of our guys and prospects in the system.

As a long suffering Canuck fan I see more pain ahead sadly.