Player Discussion: Ivan Provorov

[majormajor]

I liked Gabrikov, but at his age I'm not a 7 year bidder. I like Shea Theodore, but it's the age deal again. Chychrun is in my preferred age bracket, but I haven't watched him that closely. His simple stats seems ok, but I have no clue how his advanced stats look.

I don't know about Chychrun's advanced stats. Ottawa fans were not kind about his play. Caps fans like him more. That's all I know.

That and he's been very very injury prone over the years. Gavrikov has been remarkably durable and it doesn't look like he's lost any quickness at all, so take that along with his defensive ability. If I had to pick between that group it would be him.

 

[Youngguns1380]

I really dont want to see DW holding on to Provorov past deadline if there isnt a deal to be made with him. We can probably get that first round pick out of him, so if there isnt a deal agreed before TDL - Don should trade him for the highest bid.

Assett management and long term plan over maybe playoffs this year.

I just want to remind you of groundhog day with Gavrikov and now we are in the same position with Provorov. Then after Gavy left we were in bad shape for 2 seasons.

Just something to think about.

 

[SteelCityCannon]

I just want to remind you of groundhog day with Gavrikov and now we are in the same position with Provorov. Then after Gavy left we were in bad shape for 2 seasons.

Just something to think about.

This. Everyone is quick to move Provorov but nobody ever mentions who's gonna replace him. Outside of Hunt maybe we don't really have anybody knocking on the door. I don't want to see more of Jack Johnson than I have to.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

This. Everyone is quick to move Provorov but nobody ever mentions who's gonna replace him. Outside of Hunt maybe we don't really have anybody knocking on the door. I don't want to see more of Jack Johnson than I have to.

That’s the key. I still contend if you want to give up and trade him you are tanking the rest of the season without acquiring a replacement that may not be cheap on assets. There is literally nobody else in the organization that can do his role right now.

 

[SteelCityCannon]

That’s the key. I still contend if you want to give up and trade him you are tanking the rest of the season without acquiring a replacement that may not be cheap on assets. There is literally nobody else in the organization that can do his role right now.

Yup, and good problem to have, but these guys have earned the right to try and make it. The team can't wave the white flag now.

 

[majormajor]

I just want to remind you of groundhog day with Gavrikov and now we are in the same position with Provorov. Then after Gavy left we were in bad shape for 2 seasons.

Just something to think about.

The difference for me there (aside from Gavi being a better defender) is that we aren't in the middle of a rebuild anymore. It didn't make sense back then to move significant futures for a big upgrade but it does now. Giving a long term deal to Provorov locks us further in to having a middling D group behind Zach. I would like us to make our equivalent of the Ekholm deal (he was acquired for a late 1st + a prospect who was just taken in the late 1st).

My most preferred outcome is probably signing Gavrikov himself this summer, but he'll have a lot of suitors and my next preferred outcome is trading futures (perhaps our two late firsts if we add one from a Provorov trade) for a significant upgrade.

 

[Crede777]

The difference for me there (aside from Gavi being a better defender) is that we aren't in the middle of a rebuild anymore. It didn't make sense back then to move significant futures for a big upgrade but it does now. Giving a long term deal to Provorov locks us further in to having a middling D group behind Zach. I would like us to make our equivalent of the Ekholm deal (he was acquired for a late 1st + a prospect who was just taken in the late 1st).

My most preferred outcome is probably signing Gavrikov himself this summer, but he'll have a lot of suitors and my next preferred outcome is trading futures (perhaps our two late firsts if we add one from a Provorov trade) for a significant upgrade.

I think it comes down more to his fit in the room rather than his play on the ice. If they're going to extend him, it's probably going to be a deal for 5+ years which means they're committed to making him part of the core / leadership group.

I said recently that I'd do a long term extension because he is decent as a 2nd pairing player and is super durable. But I dont know how he's viewed off-ice and that will probably be the determining factor in why they would move him at the TDL.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

The difference for me there (aside from Gavi being a better defender) is that we aren't in the middle of a rebuild anymore. It didn't make sense back then to move significant futures for a big upgrade but it does now. Giving a long term deal to Provorov locks us further in to having a middling D group behind Zach. I would like us to make our equivalent of the Ekholm deal (he was acquired for a late 1st + a prospect who was just taken in the late 1st).

I agree completely with this part, particularly the bolded. A package like say two 1sts, Sillinger and Svozil should open up quite a few possibilities in the off-season.

Another thing about Provorov is the fact that the Kings already retain salary on him means that CBJ can themselves retain on him so that he gets down to a very low AAV ($2,362,500), which should make him very valuable, compared to if he's re-signed to an expensive deal and then included in a hockey trade.

He has played well this season, but he just is not a long-term fit. Now if they did re-sign him to a short deal, it wouldn't be the end of the world. But it would lower his value. And I would strongly object to letting him walk for nothing or signing him to a long-term deal.

Plus, who knows, maybe a cheap veteran or a younger player can be brought in to the line-up and help them make the playoffs anyway? It's not certain that they miss the playoffs just because of a Provorov trade, just like it isn't certain that they make the playoffs if they keep him.

 

[majormajor]

I agree completely with this part, particularly the bolded. A package like say two 1sts, Sillinger and Svozil should open up quite a few possibilities in the off-season.

Another thing about Provorov is the fact that the Kings already retain salary on him means that CBJ can themselves retain on him so that he gets down to a very low AAV ($2,362,500), which should make him very valuable, compared to if he's re-signed to an expensive deal and then included in a hockey trade.

He has played well this season, but he just is not a long-term fit. Now if they did re-sign him to a short deal, it wouldn't be the end of the world. But it would lower his value. And I would strongly object to letting him walk for nothing or signing him to a long-term deal.

Plus, who knows, maybe a cheap veteran or a younger player can be brought in to the line-up and help them make the playoffs anyway? It's not certain that they miss the playoffs just because of a Provorov trade, just like it isn't certain that they make the playoffs if they keep him.

Yeah. I don't want to say though that he's not a fit, because Provy is an okay fit. But we're in a great position as a club with so many assets, it seems like the time is coming to make a bigger upgrade on D.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

Yeah. I don't want to say though that he's not a fit, because Provy is an okay fit. But we're in a great position as a club with so many assets, it seems like the time is coming to make a bigger upgrade on D.

It was a bit harshly phrased, I'll agree. My point was that with Werenski and Mateychuk in the top 4, Provorov is redundant long-term and valuable short-term. Getting an upgrade that better complements those two makes far more sense from that perspective.

 

[majormajor]

It was a bit harshly phrased, I'll agree. My point was that with Werenski and Mateychuk in the top 4, Provorov is redundant long-term and valuable short-term. Getting an upgrade that better complements those two makes far more sense from that perspective.

I would expect Provy to still be useful, I don't think he'd be redundant, but I want to aim higher.

 

[EspenK]

Teams usually don't trade top 4 D, especially RD. Those who are looking to find such a guy via trade are probably those who were hoping we'd land a 1C that way.

 

[koteka]

Teams usually don't trade top 4 D, especially RD. Those who are looking to find such a guy via trade are probably those who were hoping we'd land a 1C that way.

That is why we’ll probably have to trade a guy people don’t want to trade. Embrace you inner Jarmo (early in his tenure Jarmo). Make the big trade to solidify the right side.

 

[CBJx614]

I'll ask this, do we really need a TRUE #1 RD? Someone worth possibly trading away a possible cornerstone piece for?

Fabbro has been eating minutes and looking good in the spot next to Werenski and has allowed him to play like a superstar.

I think we need some help and depth for sure, but a true #1? Is he going to get much PP when we're healthy? The system we had was working pretty well.

 

[koteka]

I'll ask this, do we really need a TRUE #1 RD? Someone worth possibly trading away a possible cornerstone piece for?

Fabbro has been eating minutes and looking good in the spot next to Werenski and has allowed him to play like a superstar.

I think we need some help and depth for sure, but a true #1? Is he going to get much PP when we're healthy? The system we had was working pretty well.

I think we need at least a high #2 RD that you can play at the end of the game to hold a lead. Like back in the day we had the Zach - Seth Jones pair, but when the Jackets needed to stop the other team, Ryan Murray (if healthy) would play with Jones.

So you have

Werenski - Fabbro
Mateychuk - really good 2RD

most of the game, but if you want to hold a lead, you put in Werenski - really good 2RD. And a really good 2RD doesn’t come cheap.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I'll ask this, do we really need a TRUE #1 RD? Someone worth possibly trading away a possible cornerstone piece for?

Fabbro has been eating minutes and looking good in the spot next to Werenski and has allowed him to play like a superstar.

I think we need some help and depth for sure, but a true #1? Is he going to get much PP when we're healthy? The system we had was working pretty well.

Is a dependable-in-their-own-zone RD with size a "true #1"? Can you find someone who fits that description who's not a "true #1"? I think that would be the approach.

 

[CBJx614]

Is a dependable-in-their-own-zone RD with size a "true #1"? Can you find someone who fits that description who's not a "true #1"? I think that would be the approach.

So the only reason Fabbro isn't a true #1 is his size? My point or question I guess is do we take a chance at disrupting the chemistry that Z has with Fabbro?

If the perfect piece is available sure, but they don't exactly just grow on trees, ripe for the picking.

I agree with Koteka in the idea of getting a #2, at least for the foreseeable future. If we're locking up Fabbro and planning to keep him with Z, we need to find a minute munching RH or someone capable of playing on the right side vet, who we can attach to Mateychuks hip for a few seasons.

Severson isn't likely to be going anywhere any time soon and who knows how Gudbranson looks after a year off basically.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

So the only reason Fabbro isn't a true #1 is his size? My point or question I guess is do we take a chance at disrupting the chemistry that Z has with Fabbro?

If the perfect piece is available sure, but they don't exactly just grow on trees, ripe for the picking.

I agree with Koteka in the idea of getting a #2, at least for the foreseeable future. If we're locking up Fabbro and planning to keep him with Z, we need to find a minute munching RH or someone capable of playing on the right side vet, who we can attach to Mateychuks hip for a few seasons.

Severson isn't likely to be going anywhere any time soon and who knows how Gudbranson looks after a year off basically.

I was just trying to find out what he meant by #1 to more thoughtfully answer the question if if we need one. The player I’m describing isn’t necessarily a #1. We’re all saying the same thing. A RD, ideally who trends defensive. The size thing is a nod to motels, who prefers d-men of stature.

 

[majormajor]

I'll ask this, do we really need a TRUE #1 RD? Someone worth possibly trading away a possible cornerstone piece for?

Fabbro has been eating minutes and looking good in the spot next to Werenski and has allowed him to play like a superstar.

I think we need some help and depth for sure, but a true #1? Is he going to get much PP when we're healthy? The system we had was working pretty well.

No, and you're correct we can't offer PP time.

I think we need at least a high #2 RD that you can play at the end of the game to hold a lead. Like back in the day we had the Zach - Seth Jones pair, but when the Jackets needed to stop the other team, Ryan Murray (if healthy) would play with Jones.

So you have

Werenski - Fabbro
Mateychuk - really good 2RD

most of the game, but if you want to hold a lead, you put in Werenski - really good 2RD. And a really good 2RD doesn’t come cheap.

Fabbro is looking terrific to me defensively. Very stout and very sharp.

I would like us to have a McDonagh type - excellent shutdown D with a strong all around game - to the next pairing.

Maybe Gavrikov is the closest thing to that we can get, and wouldn't cost us trade assets. Or perhaps Adam Pelech gets back to that level with a trade, he was for a while considered a top tier shutdown D.

If we're intent on a RHD then Pulock fits better than Pelech. But I'm not sure handedness is a pivotal issue. Gavrikov is playing his best hockey on the right. And we're not exactly sure how the pairings would shake out. It's possible that Mateychuk will be on a separate pairing from this incoming D or that Mateychuk will fit better on the right. Seven or eight years ago the LIghtning were in a similar position - they had Hedman as the star #1D on the left, and Sergachev coming up on the left, and they wanted a big defensive upgrade. So they traded for McDonagh, also on the left. It worked out okay, all three played big minutes anyways.

None of the targets I mentioned would cost us a Voronkov or KJ level player. Heck, McDonagh never cost a player like that either.

 

[koteka]

Seven or eight years ago the LIghtning were in a similar position - they had Hedman as the star #1D on the left, and Sergachev coming up on the left, and they wanted a big defensive upgrade. So they traded for McDonagh, also on the left. It worked out okay, all three played big minutes anyways.

Interestingly, they considered Cernak core and not Sergechev and McDonagh. Is that because they had a right D good enough to make their left D heavy system work for those Cup runs? I don’t mind being heavy on the left D, but we don’t have our Cernak. I have always thought he was the most underrated player on the Lightning during their Cup seasons.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Heavy D you say?

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I don't know about Chychrun's advanced stats. Ottawa fans were not kind about his play. Caps fans like him more. That's all I know.

i spent like two years banging the drum for chychrun here when he was reportedly available. legitimate dude and a top-pair quality defenseman. and his age aligns better to the jackets core.

that said… I'd be surprised if the caps don't extend him. player seems like a great fit there. jackets had plenty of chances to get him here and balked at it when (iirc) his agent said he didn't see columbus as a long-term home.

That and he's been very very injury prone over the years. Gavrikov has been remarkably durable and it doesn't look like he's lost any quickness at all, so take that along with his defensive ability. If I had to pick between that group it would be him.

this point is part of why I've actually come around to extending provorov if the numbers are reasonable.

he doesn't miss games, plays both sides, can log big minutes and seems well-liked in the room. also works great with werenski and should continue to be good with mateychuk as he grows. dude also plays his heart out every night.

not opposed to trading him, but the value prop getting a bit iffy in my mind.

• is this year's UFA crop (chychrun, gavrikov, pionk, ekblad) better than provorov on the ice?
• will those guys even hit the UFA market?
• if they do, can columbus win a bidding war?
• if columbus does win the bidding war, how will their contract look compared to what provorov is asking for?
• if they backfill via trade instead of free agency:
  1. will any players who are meaningful upgrades over provorov be available on the market?
  2. if so, will they be a fit?
  3. if so, will they be cost-prohibitive to acquire

I wouldn't be surprised if none of those UFAs actually hit he market. chychrun and pionk are upgrades in my mind, but as UFAs they'd likely require much bigger deals than provorov. would love a gavrikov reunion but I doubt LA lets him hit the market, and imo provorov's versatility gives him a leg up.

backfilling his spot via trade is preferable but the market is a black box and the top guy people bring up (andersson) is certainly going to have an 8-figure AAV on his next deal. the best long-term piece rumored to be available is owen power – I love the player but his fit on a roster with werenski and mateychuk is murky.

the ideal end state here is probably a short-ish term, high AAV extension for provorov (something like $8.5m x 3 years) that's maybe a tad longer than what waddell gave to orlov.

1. gives him a swing at a bigger deal when the cap is much higher
2. gives the jackets short-term stability and a bridge to mateychuk/elick
3. gives them long-term flexibility (cap and roster math)
4. can kick the can down the road on trading him

seems like the best outcome to me.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I'll ask this, do we really need a TRUE #1 RD? Someone worth possibly trading away a possible cornerstone piece for?

Fabbro has been eating minutes and looking good in the spot next to Werenski and has allowed him to play like a superstar.

I think we need some help and depth for sure, but a true #1? Is he going to get much PP when we're healthy? The system we had was working pretty well.

You don’t. Which is why the idea of trading Voronkov (or insert any of the core young pieces here) for one is unfathomable to me. Yes, you need an elite defenseman, at least one (which we do), surrounded by very good ones who play a variety of roles. You need a good RHD, at least one or two, but there’s nothing that says they have to be your best guy.

Fabbro would be fine. Severson as the third or second RHD is fine. Getting a second or third RHD who’s a shutdown guy is good enough, imo.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

You don’t. Which is why the idea of trading Voronkov (or insert any of the core young pieces here) for one is unfathomable to me.

I agree that they don't need to rush into a huge trade for a defenseman (unless they're really sold on someone like owen power and his ability to fit this roster) and I know this isn't exactly the thread for this, but I think voronkov is more likely to get traded this summer than people maybe realize.

if they were to go after a legitimate star-level player, voronkov would be a highly appealing piece.

love voronkov as a player, but his success has come 1) netfront on the power play and 2) at 5v5 with marchenko and monahan – two guys who have success with everyone. he's also due for a massive raise as an RFA.

they have other guys who can play that netfront role (monahan, jenner) and they've been connected to boeser, who is good netfront and in the bumper. kreider has also been reportedly available and he is a prolific netfront guy who brings a lot more pace.

not saying they should or will trade him, just that voronkov seems more likely to be traded than any of their other young pieces aside from sillinger.

Yes, you need an elite defenseman, at least one (which we do), surrounded by very good ones who play a variety of roles. You need a good RHD, at least one or two, but there’s nothing that says they have to be your best guy.

assuming extensions for fabbro (5ish years) and provorov (let's say an orlov-style 2-year, high-aav deal), and a push in the summer to trade one of gudbranson/severson, you'd run into next season with something like:

​

werenski - fabbro​

mateychuk - provorov​

TBD - severson/gudbranson​

​

solid group, no need to overthink things. fabbro works with werenski. provorov is a legit second pair guy who can log big minutes in any role. it's a lot easier to plug a hole at LD3 (ex: trading for soucy, signing cole) than it is to find a top-four RHD without an egregious overpay.

the alternative is signing a big-money, long-term deal to get a declining ekblad or pionk in free agency, or trading for a contract year rasmus andersson, who will surely be demanding $10m+ AAV with term on his next deal, given the cap growth curve.

 

[majormajor]

Interestingly, they considered Cernak core and not Sergechev and McDonagh. Is that because they had a right D good enough to make their left D heavy system work for those Cup runs? I don’t mind being heavy on the left D, but we don’t have our Cernak. I have always thought he was the most underrated player on the Lightning during their Cup seasons.

Cernak was a key piece. But he also struggled without McDonagh, they brought McDonagh back largely because it was like they lost both of them when they traded McDonagh.