Player Discussion: Ivan Provorov

[MFRONE]

Since the news of Provorov wanting an 8 year deal he’s played 3 of the worst games of the season in the past week. Just trade him as soon as possible

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Since the news of Provorov wanting an 8 year deal he’s played 3 of the worst games of the season in the past week. Just trade him as soon as possible

For the record, it is SPECULATION he's looking for an 8 year deal.

Nobody has confirmed as such and anyone who has said as much is just assuming because that is what most players in his situation are looking for.

 

[joybang]

My preference would be TDL move with Provorov and use the assets when possible to target a better player. No real interest in signing him for 7 years let alone 8.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Provorov at 8 years (37yo at contract's end) + Severson at 6 more years (37 at contract's end) does not = a sound strategy for a long term competitive team defense.

Trade him at the TDL and have no regrets.

 

[Forepar]

Since the news of Provorov wanting an 8 year deal he’s played 3 of the worst games of the season in the past week. Just trade him as soon as possible

Whether the reported desire for an 8-year deal and the recently observed poor play are related or coincidental, who knows !?
I have no idea what the analytics say, but the eye test supports your thesis! Provy is fighting the puck and struggling to find the right d-zone exit. I’m still of the opinion Provy is better fit (and slightly better player) than Severson but Severson’s unmovable contract and handedness makes it highly likely Provy gets moved at the TDL - and that moving him is the right move. Wish it wasn’t, I like him on our 2nd pair, but not if we’re going to have $15M tied up in two 2nd/3rd pair D for the next 7-8 years.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Provorov has done exactly what was expected of him from a roster/organizational standpoint, which is to provide a buffer against the young guys having to play early or log more minutes than they were ready for. (The fact that Jiricek has been traded doesn't change the initial intent, to give us legit NHL defenseman we could deploy.)

Let's not make it any more than that. Let's not ruin the successful strategy with a new one likely to fail.

 

[joybang]

Whether the reported desire for an 8-year deal and the recently observed poor play are related or coincidental, who knows !?
I have no idea what the analytics say, but the eye test supports your thesis! Provy is fighting the puck and struggling to find the right d-zone exit. I’m still of the opinion Provy is better fit (and slightly better player) than Severson but Severson’s unmovable contract and handedness makes it highly likely Provy gets moved at the TDL - and that moving him is the right move. Wish it wasn’t, I like him on our 2nd pair, but not if we’re going to have $15M tied up in two 2nd/3rd pair D for the next 7-8 years.

Advanced analytics for Provorov are poor. YMMV whether that’s something you want to put a lot of stock into or not. But they’re not good.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Provorov at 8 years (37yo at contract's end) + Severson at 6 more years (37 at contract's end) does not = a sound strategy for a long term competitive team defense.

Trade him at the TDL and have no regrets.

yeah zero interest in that or in paying him more than $7m aav which sure seems like where this is going.

waddell's not going to rush into anything, but provorov's struggled a bit lately and i'd be looking to make a move sooner than later. in an ideal world, they're able to move him and flip the assets for someone who fits longer-term like k'andre miller. i've seen some speculation about owen power as well, would love to get him if he's available.

 

[Xoggz22]

And I want them to win Stanley Cups in the future.

I think they can make moves to keep the focus on both.

 

[alphafox]

At this point I think you have to do something to help Fantilli using Provy. Tossing him back to a line with Sillinger or Zar is not where the future of the franchise (fingers crossed) needs to be, you have to find a partner for him and KJ and if that is the cost for Provy then so be it.

 

[VT]

I think 4 years would be ideal.

At this point I think you have to do something to help Fantilli using Provy. Tossing him back to a line with Sillinger or Zar is not where the future of the franchise (fingers crossed) needs to be, you have to find a partner for him and KJ and if that is the cost for Provy then so be it.

We have Johnson, Chinakhov, Jenner. Fantilli has partners. Also LDBB can play wing.
And d-men are more important then wingers.

 

[alphafox]

I think 4 years would be ideal.

We have Johnson, Chinakhov, Jenner. Fantilli has partners. Also LDBB can play wing.
And d-men are more important then wingers.

Other than KJ I don't view any of those as players that could take Fantilli's game to the next level. Jenner may help as someone to go into corners and dig pucks out but he lacks skill and speed. Chinakov is on the IR list to often and I think LDBB has the capacity to be a really good Center so I would rather have him centering the the third line and learning the role (I suggested in another thread moving on from Sillinger for help as well, I think a package of Proverov and Sillinger could bring back a roster player with star upside from someone like Dallas or Minnesota.)

That being said I think it is undeniable that the D needs an upgrade to compete. I just don't see a real long term upgrade available in season and with Provy wanting 8 years I feel like we are better off getting the return we can for him rather than being locked into his and Severson's contracts for the long haul.

 

[VT]

Other than KJ I don't view any of those as players that could take Fantilli's game to the next level. Jenner may help as someone to go into corners and dig pucks out but he lacks skill and speed. Chinakov is on the IR list to often and I think LDBB has the capacity to be a really good Center so I would rather have him centering the the third line and learning the role (I suggested in another thread moving on from Sillinger for help as well, I think a package of Proverov and Sillinger could bring back a roster player with star upside from someone like Dallas or Minnesota.)

Two centers in the line is a very good thing. Besides, LDBB doesn't have the physical play of Sillunger, who is the ideal third line center.
Many write that Provorov is a mediocre defenseman. If that's true, we won't get a quality player for him. And trading a center is not a good idea.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

This article is about Severson, but this part did catch my eye:

Just at face value, the Blue Jackets need a player with such a long-term contract to be a reliable, significant part of their lineup. Beyond that, they may need to rely on Severson more heavily down the stretch this season depending on how the NHL trade deadline plays out on March 7.

The Blue Jackets have had contract talks with veteran defenseman Ivan Provorov, a pending unrestricted free agent, who has switched the right side of the second pair to accommodate Mateychuk. GM Don Waddell has had talks with Provorov’s agent, Mark Gandler, about an extension, but it’s unclear if there’s a deal to be made.

The Blue Jackets would like to keep Provorov on a short-term contract. But Provorov is at an age — he turned 28 earlier this month — when most players hope to sign a seven- or eight-year contract.

There could be a middle ground in all of this. Waddell, who has plenty of salary cap space, could offer Provorov a short-term deal with a salary that’s above his market value to entice him. In fact, there is a very specific precedent for this.

On July 1, 2023, 31-year-old defenseman Dmitry Orlov was expected to land a big-ticket as a UFA — one pretty comparable to Provorov, actually. But instead of landing a monster contract, Orlov signed a two-year deal worth $7.75 million per season with Carolina.

Orlov’s agent? Mark Gandler. Carolina’s GM? Don Waddell.

Damon Severson’s return to form could be crucial for Blue Jackets’ stretch run

The veteran defenseman has gone back to basics with his game over the last three weeks.

www.nytimes.com

Never really considered that.

Would people here be okay with a 2-3 year deal for 7-8.5 million for Provorov?

 

[Jovavic]

I'd be fine with that, our cap won't have issues for quite a few more seasons, but him making 8+ halfway through an eight year deal on the third pairing would be.

 

[majormajor]

This article is about Severson, but this part did catch my eye:

Damon Severson’s return to form could be crucial for Blue Jackets’ stretch run

The veteran defenseman has gone back to basics with his game over the last three weeks.

www.nytimes.com

Never really considered that.

Would people here be okay with a 2-3 year deal for 7-8.5 million for Provorov?

I'd consider doing something like a $7m x 2 with Provorov. I don't think he's Orlov caliber so I'm not going higher than that.

There are other UFA D like Kovacevic that I'd also explore making a short term overpay offer for.

 

[stevo61]

I'd consider doing something like a $7m x 2 with Provorov. I don't think he's Orlov caliber so I'm not going higher than that.

There are other UFA D like Kovacevic that I'd also explore making a short term overpay offer for.

7mil would be over 2% of the overall cap less than Orlov made at the time of his signing. I think a major factor with any of these soon to be UFAs is they'll be asking based off of the projected cap for next season. Management around the league not named Dubas will likely be more cautious than that

 

[CBJWerenski8]

All is quiet on the Ivan Provorov contract front. The Columbus Blue Jackets would like to hold on to him, and he continues to enjoy his time there, but as of today, there hasn’t been any progress on an extension

 

[EspenK]

Provorov has done exactly what was expected of him from a roster/organizational standpoint, which is to provide a buffer against the young guys having to play early or log more minutes than they were ready for. (The fact that Jiricek has been traded doesn't change the initial intent, to give us legit NHL defenseman we could deploy.)

Let's not make it any more than that. Let's not ruin the successful strategy with a new one likely to fail.

How long is the buffer strategy good for? Till TDL? Thru end of season? For an extension? 6 or 8 years? Seems like there is a lot to consider with ongoing plans re: Ivan.

 

[CBJx614]

How long is the buffer strategy good for? Till TDL? Thru end of season? For an extension? 6 or 8 years? Seems like there is a lot to consider with ongoing plans re: Ivan.

Something else to think about, what does the org think about a guy like Hunt? If they think he's just organizational depth, they're probably more likely to keep Provy for a few years. If they think he's truly about ready to compete for an actual NHL spot, they might be more open to moving on from Provy.

It's gonna be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

How long is the buffer strategy good for? Till TDL? Thru end of season? For an extension? 6 or 8 years? Seems like there is a lot to consider with ongoing plans re: Ivan.

At the time I wrote that, I meant specifically it could be over whenever GMDW wanted to trade him.

You’ll see I have “softened” my stance inasmuchas they should do whatever they think is best regarding IP and not measure the “success” of that approach on whether the team makes this season’s playoffs.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

I'll take a stab and say that the ball is in Ivan's court.

I'm guessing that the CBJ are offering the AAV but not the term he's looking for. I can't see Waddell giving this guy a 7 or 8 year deal. 7 and 8 year deals for players who are going to be in their late 30s at the end of the deal should only be reserved for elite players and Provorov isn't one of those. I can't see anyone giving him a 7 year deal at his appropriate AAV if even he hits UFA-but money seems to fly pretty freely on day 1 of UFA so one never knows.

Given that Provorov is in a position to get his final big payday, he'll probably play it out and see what he can get as a UFA or his post TDL team. I think that he'll end up being traded by the TDL. The CBJ can use the additional pick/players and there's so much room in the cap that they can go big game hunting for a dman.

 

[majormajor]

I can't see anyone giving him a 7 year deal at his appropriate AAV

C'mon, yes you can. You can see it. Just imagine a little harder. Teams will be throwing 7 year offers at Ivan.

But yes, we can infer from Wads' comments today that the talks with Provorov's camp are about term. I'm guessing he's asking 7-8 years and Wads is offering 4-5.

The CBJ can use the additional pick/players and there's so much room in the cap that they can go big game hunting for a dman.

So who is your target? It gets a lot less fun when you realize what is out there.

Were you a huge Gavrikov fan, like I was?

 

[DankoCBJ]

I really dont want to see DW holding on to Provorov past deadline if there isnt a deal to be made with him. We can probably get that first round pick out of him, so if there isnt a deal agreed before TDL - Don should trade him for the highest bid.

Assett management and long term plan over maybe playoffs this year.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

C'mon, yes you can. You can see it. Just imagine a little harder. Teams will be throwing 7 year offers at Ivan.

But yes, we can infer from Wads' comments today that the talks with Provorov's camp are about term. I'm guessing he's asking 7-8 years and Wads is offering 4-5.



So who is your target? It gets a lot less fun when you realize what is out there.

Were you a huge Gavrikov fan, like I was?

Sure, someone will give him 7 years but at less than what he is probably currently asking. With the projection of the cap rising ($25 million in 3 years?) a lot of teams will spend like they've just won the lottery so maybe someone will be a fool and do it.

I liked Gabrikov, but at his age I'm not a 7 year bidder. I like Shea Theodore, but it's the age deal again. Chychrun is in my preferred age bracket, but I haven't watched him that closely. His simple stats seems ok, but I have no clue how his advanced stats look. I'll guess he gets a ton of money thrown at him so I'll leave it to the FO to decide whether he's worth it or not.

Overall, if the price isn't right, then I'd prefer that the CBJ don't buy. The team is in such a strong cap/asset position that they could pull a blockbuster trade if they want.