Player Discussion: Ivan Provorov

[CBJWerenski8]

Although I’d like to keep him, it really does feel like the organization has always planned to trade him ever since they got him.

They have Mateychuk. They extended Christiansen. They traded for Hunt and Harris (even if they were just a throw in). They have Svozil and others in the wings in Cleveland. And they have a ton of cap space.

 

[Xoggz22]

Although I’d like to keep him, it really does feel like the organization has always planned to trade him ever since they got him.

They have Mateychuk. They extended Christiansen. They traded for Hunt and Harris (even if they were just a throw in). They have Svozil and others in the wings in Cleveland. And they have a ton of cap space.

I think the continued ascension of Mateychuk probably has them feeling he can take on more next year and Jake is good enough for bottom pairing/7th Dman that they can still go get someone for a couple year to play on the 2nd pair if Mateychuk has any struggles. I don't think they'll look to sign anyone long term on the left side but I still feel the right side needs work - short and long term. Until the next wave comes, I think they need another top 4 type to play big minutes. If Provorov were interested in a 2-3 year deal I would love that, but I don't see it

 

[majormajor]

For me it's not a left-side vs right-side issue. I don't think Provorov is the shutdown type of guy that we should be investing in.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

For me it's not a left-side vs right-side issue. I don't think Provorov is the shutdown type of guy that we should be investing in.

his value definitely comes from his versatility and adaptability rather than him specializing in a particular role. which, in theory, makes him more valuable in the right circumstances.

it's all dependent on whether evason's ice time distribution (heavily skewed towards the top four, very little for #5/6) is a product of the current roster or if that's how he wants to run things.

if it's the former, they could target a rugged third pair LHD and cobble together a shutdown third pair. basically filling that gap short-term and adding depth.

werenski - fabbro​

mateychuk - provorov​

TBD LHD* - severson/gudbranson​

​

*targets: ian cole, carson soucy, alec martinez ​

this approach is the most cost-effective in terms of assets, assuming provorov is open to a short-term, high-AAV extension. it also insulates them from injury impact, as provorov can play up or in a more offensively-minded role if called upon to do so.

I also don't think adding a shutdown-focused top-four RHD is mutually exclusive with keeping provorov around. they could instead embrace the lineup construction that we've seen from recent contenders:

• 1st pair: elite two-way defenseman w/ a complimentary partner
• 2nd pair: rugged shutdown pair
• 3rd pair: offensive puck mover + mobile low-event partner

if they want to maximize their chances this year they could accomplish this by finding a shutdown partner for provorov instead of mateychuk, and letting mateychuk be that puck-moving third pair guy. that would be something like:

​

werenski - fabbro​

provorov - TBD RHD*​

mateychuk - severson/gudbranson​

​

*targets: colton parayko, connor murphy, ryan pulock​

this is almost certainly the least cost-efficient route and may require them to keep provorov as an in-house rental, but they could recoup some of that value in the summer with a UFA signing + potential severson + gudbranson trades.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

They have Mateychuk. They extended Christiansen. They traded for Hunt and Harris (even if they were just a throw in). They have Svozil and others in the wings in Cleveland. And they have a ton of cap space.

christiansen has been brutal for about 2-3 months at this point, imo he should only be viewed as a #7 at most. and harris is currently their #9 in a group that includes christiansen and jack johnson. he's headed to the jake bean zone (getting non-tendered) this summer.

don waddell has a ways to go still before this is his roster on the blue line, imo. werenski is a building block and mateychuk looks like an elite game controlling defenseman in the making. fabbro should be seen as a long-term guy and should be the biggest priority UFA extension right now.

beyond that? I'd be shocked if more than one of provorov/severson/gudbranson is on the roster next year, and wouldn't be surprised if none of them are.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

From pre game radio last night and also during the ESPN broadcast it really made it seem like the CBJ and Provorov tried hard to get a deal done but there’s not a lot of optimism it will. I believe Emily Kaplan described it as “frustrating” for the CBJ.

 

[DankoCBJ]

Yeah I guess there is no trade to come. Let Provy be a blue jacket to the end of the season and when the summer comes DW tries to work some magic on that defence. What ever that means.

 

[CBJ goalie]

From pre game radio last night and also during the ESPN broadcast it really made it seem like the CBJ and Provorov tried hard to get a deal done but there’s not a lot of optimism it will. I believe Emily Kaplan described it as “frustrating” for the CBJ.

I firmly believe in 'never say never '.
I'm hoping he stays with the team.

 

[koteka]

He wants the long term deal. We don’t want to give him the long term deal. Makes perfect sense from both sides.

 

[Indy18]

He wants the long term deal. We don’t want to give him the long term deal. Makes perfect sense from both sides.

Sometimes it doesn't make sense but both parties can respect each other. Feels like this is that type of situation and let #9 get a good run to increase his final contract. Personally I don't think we should sign that but I came to respect what he has done for our team. Let him finish the fight for us.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[Xoggz22]

Maybe this explains why no push for Fabbro. I don't think they want to bring both back unless they can move Severson (and I only say that because I don't think they want all three on long term deals). I'm very excited to see what the offseason actually brings for this group. A full off season coming off a playoff push. Would be real excitement again. And we move past all the sophomore slumps so even more growth from the young players.

 

[majormajor]

Maybe this explains why no push for Fabbro. I don't think they want to bring both back unless they can move Severson (and I only say that because I don't think they want all three on long term deals).

1 - If forced to choose I would rather we had Fabbro.

2 - We shouldn't have to choose - we don't have very many defensemen. Notably our right side depth (and Fabbro is an actual RHD) is particularly bad.

**After writing this out, I think I may have figured it out, Wads is probably thinking Gudbranson will be a big contributor? I didn't include him in my above thinking because he's not good and only has a year left. If that's what Don is thinking then god dammit.

 

[Xoggz22]

1 - If forced to choose I would rather we had Fabbro.

2 - We shouldn't have to choose - we don't have very many defensemen. Notably our right side depth (and Fabbro is an actual RHD) is particularly bad.

**After writing this out, I think I may have figured it out, Wads is probably thinking Gudbranson will be a big contributor? I didn't include him in my above thinking because he's not good and only has a year left. If that's what Don is thinking then god dammit.

Don't disagree with your post at all. I do think GMDW may be thinking bigger in the off season on restructuring the defense. I too would prefer Fabbro (although I have liked the Provorov deal since it happened) because I like the true RHD on that side. I think it will all come down to contract length. I don't see JJ or Harris coming back next year and Christiansen likely slides to the #7D if they roll back with Z, Fabbro, Provo, Mateychuk, Severson and Gudbranson. Not sure I'm enamored with that group of 7, which is why I think there are more changes coming and maybe Fabbro feels he can get more $ and length elsewhere. ???

I don't mind those pieces individually, but together, I'm not thrilled and don't see a lot of upside to push a deep playoff run. Could be short sighted on my part. Ultimately there is one more year that is a little awkward on the right side from existing deals and I don't think Severson is going anywhere (and that's not me saying he's terrible, just can't get past >$6MM for a guy that is only effective at 15 min a night)

 

[MoeBartoli]

I’m probably in the minority but I’m not excited about resigning hi unless it’s short term and for an AAV that’s less than what anyone else is thinking. I would have traded him at the deadline but I can’t be overly critical of not as they are in the playoff hunt and have no immediate solution to cover that spot.

I don’t think our D as currently built is good enough. Obviously Z is a stud, Mateychuk is part of our future, Fabbro has been solid and should be resigned if at a fair price (for a guy picked from waivers), and Severson ain’t going anywhere. Christiansen is a 7th DMan IMO and Harris and Johnson are no answer.

Save the Provorov money and get a stronger defensive defensemen.

 

[Monk]

I’m probably in the minority but I’m not excited about resigning hi unless it’s short term and for an AAV that’s less than what anyone else is thinking. I would have traded him at the deadline but I can’t be overly critical of not as they are in the playoff hunt and have no immediate solution to cover that spot.

I don’t think our D as currently built is good enough. Obviously Z is a stud, Mateychuk is part of our future, Fabbro has been solid and should be resigned if at a fair price (for a guy picked from waivers), and Severson ain’t going anywhere. Christiansen is a 7th DMan IMO and Harris and Johnson are no answer.

Save the Provorov money and get a stronger defensive defensemen.

Agreed. Think it's likely this provorov is the best provorov we'd see and it's all downhill from here. Contract year stereotype, and I'm not even that excited about this provorov

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Save the Provorov money and get a stronger defensive defensemen.

you know provorov works here. He’s a good player. He’s not a shutdown D but he can do his job on both sides of the puck.

I’d rather take what I know works in my top 4 rather than paying top dollar on a maybe.

I still think we can keep Provorov and Fabbro and acquire a shutdown D.

 

[CBJx614]

1 - If forced to choose I would rather we had Fabbro.

2 - We shouldn't have to choose - we don't have very many defensemen. Notably our right side depth (and Fabbro is an actual RHD) is particularly bad.

**After writing this out, I think I may have figured it out, Wads is probably thinking Gudbranson will be a big contributor? I didn't include him in my above thinking because he's not good and only has a year left. If that's what Don is thinking then god dammit.

While Gudbranson isn't great at a lot of things, one thing he will bring back to the lineup that we don't have a lot of on D is guys who are capable of clearing out the crease and playing physically. If Provy is your best physical Dman you're gonna be in trouble. And it's not that he's terrible at it, it's just not his best quality. Hopefully it's addressed in the off-season though.

 

[majormajor]

While Gudbranson isn't great at a lot of things, one thing he will bring back to the lineup that we don't have a lot of on D is guys who are capable of clearing out the crease and playing physically. If Provy is your best physical Dman you're gonna be in trouble. And it's not that he's terrible at it, it's just not his best quality. Hopefully it's addressed in the off-season though.

This is where "shutdown ability" and "physicality" are two different things. They sometimes overlap but not always.

Gudbranson is physical but not a good shutdown guy. Provorov is very rugged but kind of average at both physicality and shutdown.

 

[Youngguns80]

Just an FYI of UFA defenders available in the offseason. This is for those who think there some magical RD out there and trading Provy for some magic beans in a weaker draft. Not saying we can’t trade but it will be costly

 

[ViD]

I don’t think our D as currently built is good enough. Obviously Z is a stud, Mateychuk is part of our future, Fabbro has been solid and should be resigned if at a fair price (for a guy picked from waivers), and Severson ain’t going anywhere. Christiansen is a 7th DMan IMO and Harris and Johnson are no answer.

Save the Provorov money and get a stronger defensive defensemen.

What you described screams glaring holes at LHD. Don’t forget Provorov’s experience playing 1D minutes and his flexibility to play both sides. He’s going to be extremely important as 2LHD or step up to play with Werenski.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

View attachment 989567
Just an FYI of UFA defenders available in the offseason. This is for those who think there some magical RD out there and trading Provy for some magic beans in a weaker draft. Not saying we can’t trade but it will be costly

The proponents of trading Provorov never made the argument that Columbus should make picks with the draft capital they'd acquire for him, or at least I didn't. It was always about the last part of your post. A significant D upgrade will be expensive, yes. Having two extra 1st round draft pick instead of one would sure come in handy then. And it doesn't need to be an RHD that replaces Provorov.

Keeping Provorov means settling for a D core that's just not good enough. If they make the playoffs this year, great. But it does mean that it will be slightly harder to acquire that upgrade.

Anyway, the biggest win of this trade deadline for me is that Gavrikov did not sign an extension.

 

[Youngguns80]

The proponents of trading Provorov never made the argument that Columbus should make picks with the draft capital they'd acquire for him, or at least I didn't. It was always about the last part of your post. A significant D upgrade will be expensive, yes. Having two extra 1st round draft pick instead of one would sure come in handy then. And it doesn't need to be an RHD that replaces Provorov.

Keeping Provorov means settling for a D core that's just not good enough. If they make the playoffs this year, great. But it does mean that it will be slightly harder to acquire that upgrade.

Anyway, the biggest win of this trade deadline for me is that Gavrikov did not sign an extension.

My point is not setting on the current D corp but understanding that Provy can play top 4 on both sides. That is a good problem to have and he doesn’t miss games. Do we need an upgrade yes but just trading him with no reciprocal return just puts the team in a bad place.