Confirmed with Link: Ivan Provorov traded to CBJ (via LA) - 1st, 2 2nds, Petersen, Walker, Grans to Philly

[CanadianFlyer88]

I generally avoid the hockey talk threads and the first thing I read in days is that Carolina has no offensive stars outside of Aho and that Jack Eichel isn't elite.

Back into hibernation I go.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I generally avoid the hockey talk threads and the first thing I read in days is that Carolina has no offensive stars outside of Aho and that Jack Eichel isn't elite.

Back into hibernation I go.

He's really tough for me to tier up because he's missed so much time. The way I like to look at these things is to see how many players I'm sure are better.

So for Eichel it's McDavid, Matthews, and I think I'm done? Yes, I would take Tkachuk or Pettersson or Kucherov or Draisaitl or Pastrnak at this exact moment in time, but I'm not positive it's more than sequencing and/or situation. Is that about where you are?

 

[Beef Invictus]

No one wants only offense....or only defense. To want that is stupid.

It's why having a coach who ONLY wants to focus on defense is also dumb.

The problem is having a mindset that completely scorns and ignores either. Nobody has that mindset for defense, anywhere. The Flyers have that mindset for offense.

 

[Beef Invictus]

No scoring? In 2012 playoffs:

Kopitar PPG
Brown PPG
Doughty 66 point pace
Richard's 62 point pace
Williams 62 point pace
Carter 53 point pace

Pitt and Philly had the highest goals/game because neither was playing any defense. And we all know that series was an outlier....4.33 and 3.73 g/g.

Next highest g/game? LA at 2.85...then NJ at 2.46, Fla 2.43.

So excluding the outliers, LA clearly had the best offense that playoffs....and the best defense.

oh, and in 2014, they had the top g/game in tbe playoffs.

Let's not pretend they ONLY had defense. Both playoffs wins they had the best offense. Funny how people ignore that.

You win by scoring and the Flyers hate scoring.

 

[Beef Invictus]

It's not offense v defense, it's how you play the game.

Carolina is a defense first team, I don't hear much criticism about them, outside of Aho, who are their offensive stars?
But they play a fast, aggressive forecheck with mobile D-men who both defend and handle the puck. And that allows them to control play.

Vegas is a physical team, leads the league in shots blocked, they have some good offensive players, but even Eichel isn't an elite offensive player.
Dallas was also a defense first team.

You can generate offense off good defense and a strong forecheck, you need D-men who can drive play, forwards with speed and grit who can cause turnovers and keep the cycle going, and some guys who can shoot the puck when linemates create opportunities.

We're not talking Islanders style, that's passe, but an up tempo, aggressive but fundamentally sound approach.

Defining Carolina as a defense-first team is comical.

The Flyers are the Islanders. But worse.

 

[BigToe]

He's really tough for me to tier up because he's missed so much time. The way I like to look at these things is to see how many players I'm sure are better.

So for Eichel it's McDavid, Matthews, and I think I'm done? Yes, I would take Tkachuk or Pettersson or Kucherov or Draisaitl or Pastrnak at this exact moment in time, but I'm not positive it's more than sequencing and/or situation. Is that about where you are?

No MacKinnon, Jojo?

 

[deadhead]

He's really tough for me to tier up because he's missed so much time. The way I like to look at these things is to see how many players I'm sure are better.

So for Eichel it's McDavid, Matthews, and I think I'm done? Yes, I would take Tkachuk or Pettersson or Kucherov or Draisaitl or Pastrnak at this exact moment in time, but I'm not positive it's more than sequencing and/or situation. Is that about where you are?

The problem with Eichel is he's still potential, and watching him in the playoffs, I don't see an elite player, a very good player, but hasn't made it to the top tier yet. I'd add Point, and Marner and McKinnon ahead of him.

His peers would be Tage Thompson, Robertson, maybe Nico and Sidney. Tuch who was part of the trade, isn't far behind.
Now he may take that next step, but he's going to be 27 next season, and two years away from surgery.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

No MacKinnon, Jojo?

Yeah, him too. It wasn't a comprehensive list. I'd have to think about Robertson, Rantanen, and Hughes. But it's not crazy either way.

That Tier 3 of Forwards is huge in my book. They constantly fluctuate within the tier.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The problem with Eichel is he's still potential, and watching him in the playoffs, I don't see an elite player, a very good player, but hasn't made it to the top tier yet. I'd add Point, and Marner and McKinnon ahead of him.

His peers would be Tage Thompson, Robertson, maybe Nico and Sidney. Tuch who was part of the trade, isn't far behind.
Now he may take that next step, but he's going to be 27 next season, and two years away from surgery.

You think Giroux wasn't elite, but Backstrom was. At a time when Giroux was better than Backstrom.

 

[DancingPanther]

Sutter’s Kings were the Corsi Gold Standard. They lead the league in raw 5v5 CF% for 4 consecutive seasons. And the previous year, they finished 2nd to Detroit by a minuscule margin.

No they focused solely on defense and goaltending because they had Doughty, Quick, and defense-only Kopitar who did nothing on offense.

 

[Curufinwe]

LA won 2 cups without scoring and focusing on defense. Was it dumb to win 2 cups?

The team that traded for Carter and Gaborik at the deadline of their Cup winning years didn't care about scoring?

Gaborik had 14 goals and 8 assists in the 2014 playoffs.

Is Nolan Patrick still a peer of John Tavares?

 

[deadhead]

The Kings are a bizarre outlier, 29th and 25th in goals scored the two seasons they won the Cup.
I wouldn't use them as a template.
Other winners that were "unbalanced."

St Louis 15th GF, 6 GA
Caps 9th, 15th
Blackhawks (14-15), 16th, 1st
Pens 1st, 17th
Pens 4th, 18th

Most SC winners are in the top 10 of both offense and defense, as you'd expect.
Colorado 3rd, 7th
TB 8th, 6th
TB 1st, 9th
Pens 3rd, 6th
Blackhawks 2nd, 1st
Boston 8th, 3rd
Blackhawks 3rd, 5th

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

This entire conversation comes from a strawman argument that people want a all offense no defense type of team that comes from an incessant need to defend anything and everything the Flyers do.

 

[deadhead]

I dunno, I think the strawman argument is if you ask offensive players to play fundamental defense (like back checking, proper positioning, covering for D-men who cycle in the O-zone, etc) it'll dramatically suppress their scoring.

 

[Beef Invictus]

This entire conversation comes from a strawman argument that people want a all offense no defense type of team that comes from an incessant need to defend anything and everything the Flyers do.

And that because the top ranked offense doesn't win every year, that proves you don't win by scoring or some such nonsense.

I'll tell you for sure how you don't win: by treating offensive creativity with the high degree of scorn the Flyers do

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

He's really tough for me to tier up because he's missed so much time. The way I like to look at these things is to see how many players I'm sure are better.

So for Eichel it's McDavid, Matthews, and I think I'm done? Yes, I would take Tkachuk or Pettersson or Kucherov or Draisaitl or Pastrnak at this exact moment in time, but I'm not positive it's more than sequencing and/or situation. Is that about where you are?

Do I need to tap the sign?

But, yes, I'd have him in the tier below McDavid. Maybe not at the top of the list in that tier, but firmly in that tier.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

And that because the top ranked offense doesn't win every year, that proves you don't win by scoring or some such nonsense.

I'll tell you for sure how you don't win: by treating offensive creativity with the high degree of scorn the Flyers do

you know how else you DONT win by ? scoring less goals then your opponent.

 

[baudib1]

One of the most reliable rules about sports is that good teams are good at everything. If you took all Stanley Cup winners you would find that they’re above average in goals scored and goals allowed, because Stanley Cup winning teams have good offense and good defense.

You can even look at what you would consider extreme outliers and find this to be true. The Gretzky Oilers had a ton of defensive specialists like Tikkanen, MacTavish, Lowe, Smith. The Devils always had guys who were pure finesse players - they had Niedermayer who is one of the most skilled defensemen in history and guys like Richer and Mogilny.

 

[Starat327]

This entire conversation comes from a strawman argument that people want a all offense no defense type of team that comes from an incessant need to defend anything and everything the Flyers do.

* aN all offense*

This grammatical error will cost you exactly one shadowbox. To be paid at the location of your choosing.

 

[Striiker]

You think Giroux wasn't elite, but Backstrom was. At a time when Giroux was better than Backstrom.

Which is always.

 

[Starat327]

Which is always.

Pfft.

 

[Cody Webster]

Pfft.

View attachment 716937

Where are the titties?

 

[Starat327]

Where are the titties?

Man city's title celebration

 

[VladDrag]

Yeah, him too. It wasn't a comprehensive list. I'd have to think about Robertson, Rantanen, and Hughes. But it's not crazy either way.

That Tier 3 of Forwards is huge in my book. They constantly fluctuate within the tier.

I personally hold the opinion that apart from like 4 or 5 guys in the league who will always be in the conversation of best in the world (obviously the best is McJesus, but I think you understand) the best way to rank is to group.

Hockey is such a team sport and every performance is linked to your teammates. Not even just who you play with but the team in general. There are always going to be good and bad players, but how good vs how bad, unless you are at either ends of the bell curve, going to depend on the specific situation.

As you say, just git gud players.

 

[deadhead]

I personally hold the opinion that apart from like 4 or 5 guys in the league who will always be in the conversation of best in the world (obviously the best is McJesus, but I think you understand) the best way to rank is to group.

Hockey is such a team sport and very performance is linked to your teammates. Not even just who you play with but the team in general. There are always going to be good and bad players, but how good vs how bad, unless you are at either ends of the bell curve, going to depend on the specific situation.

As you say, just git gud players.

Actually, it's not a bell curve, it's the end of the long tail of an unknown distribution (which could be a Bell Curve, but who knows?).
So McDavid is way out there in his own tier, then the second tier has a handful or two, the third tier a couple dozen, the fourth tier maybe 50 and so on.

When I look at scoring, I look at the median "line" player, but that obscures how scoring is actually distributed.
So 1st line median is #48, 2nd line, #144, 3rd line, #240.

When you look at actual pp/60 (5x5):
#48: 2.26, #144: 1.69, #240: 1.17
3.00+ - McKinnon, Skinner, Tkachuk, Pastrnak, Thompson, Pettersson
2.80-2.99: McCann, Point, Tuch, Kuzmenko, Roberson, Hughes
2.60-2.79: Marner, Hintz, Verhaeghe, Matthews, McDavid, Benn, Crosby, Nylander
2.40-2.59: 16
2.20-2.39: 25
2.00-2.19: 28
1.80-1.99: 35
1.60-1.79: 32
1.40-1.59: 50
1.20-1.39: 29 [800 minute minimum probably causes players to drop out at this point]
[this is not a ranking of players, just a crude attempt to get a picture of the distribution of scoring]

3 year distribution [2000 minutes]:
#48: 2.23, #144: 1.75, #240: 1.18
3.00+ - Marner, Matthews, McKinnon
2.80-2.99: McDavid, Tkachuk, Robertson
2.60-2.79: Pastrnak, Marchand, Verhaeghe, Kaprizov, Panarin, Fiala, JG
2.40-2.59: 17
2.20-2.39: 23 [Farabee 2.21, #53]
2.00-2.19: 33 [TK 2.19 #54, Giroux 2.10 #70]
1.80-1.99: 44
1.60-1.79: 47 [Hayes 1.79 #132, JVR 1.76 #138, Tippett 1.69 #157]
1.40-1.59: 43 [Cousins 1.59, #178, Laughton 1.41, #217]
Deslauriers 0.86, #255
1.40 or so seems to be the cutoff to have a secure, top 9 spot.