Confirmed with Link: Ivan Provorov traded to CBJ (via LA) - 1st, 2 2nds, Petersen, Walker, Grans to Philly

[TB87]

We haven't heard from Torts in a few weeks which begs the question, is he still the Head Coach?

He probably can’t actually speak right now because his horse kicked him in the mouth again

 

[04hockey]

He probably can’t actually speak right now because his horse kicked him in the mouth again

yeah, he's mumbling advice to Danny and Keith on potential trades

 

[BernieParent]

He probably can’t actually speak right now because his horse kicked him in the mouth again

He's hoarse?

 

[VladDrag]

Actually, it's not a bell curve, it's the end of the long tail of an unknown distribution (which could be a Bell Curve, but who knows?).
So McDavid is way out there in his own tier, then the second tier has a handful or two, the third tier a couple dozen, the fourth tier maybe 50 and so on.

When I look at scoring, I look at the median "line" player, but that obscures how scoring is actually distributed.
So 1st line median is #48, 2nd line, #144, 3rd line, #240.

When you look at actual pp/60 (5x5):
#48: 2.26, #144: 1.69, #240: 1.17
3.00+ - McKinnon, Skinner, Tkachuk, Pastrnak, Thompson, Pettersson
2.80-2.99: McCann, Point, Tuch, Kuzmenko, Roberson, Hughes
2.60-2.79: Marner, Hintz, Verhaeghe, Matthews, McDavid, Benn, Crosby, Nylander
2.40-2.59: 16
2.20-2.39: 25
2.00-2.19: 28
1.80-1.99: 35
1.60-1.79: 32
1.40-1.59: 50
1.20-1.39: 29 [800 minute minimum probably causes players to drop out at this point]
[this is not a ranking of players, just a crude attempt to get a picture of the distribution of scoring]

3 year distribution [2000 minutes]:
#48: 2.23, #144: 1.75, #240: 1.18
3.00+ - Marner, Matthews, McKinnon
2.80-2.99: McDavid, Tkachuk, Robertson
2.60-2.79: Pastrnak, Marchand, Verhaeghe, Kaprizov, Panarin, Fiala, JG
2.40-2.59: 17
2.20-2.39: 23 [Farabee 2.21, #53]
2.00-2.19: 33 [TK 2.19 #54, Giroux 2.10 #70]
1.80-1.99: 44
1.60-1.79: 47 [Hayes 1.79 #132, JVR 1.76 #138, Tippett 1.69 #157]
1.40-1.59: 43 [Cousins 1.59, #178, Laughton 1.41, #217]
Deslauriers 0.86, #255
1.40 or so seems to be the cutoff to have a secure, top 9 spot.

I got to be honest I have no idea what you’re trying to say with these numbers, given the context of the term bell curve in my post. All I really meant is the very good and very bad players.

 

[deadhead]

I got to be honest I have no idea what you’re trying to say with these numbers, given the context of the term bell curve in my post. All I really meant is the very good and very bad players.

The best players are on the tail end of the distribution, and 3rd lines are in the fatter part, 4th liners are tricky b/c most are replacement level and don't play enough minutes to qualify in my scan, but would be a much larger number. It was just a quick and dirty look.

Interesting rumor:

"The Fourth Period also mentioned in today’s report that the lines of communication aren’t quite closed between the Flyers and Columbus Blue Jackets, especially regarding a long-time rumored deal involving Kevin Hayes. They noted the Provorov trade was of higher priority to both clubs, but the two parties are now “set to reengage” after completing the three-team deal.

The main negotiating factor in a Hayes trade is reportedly salary retention, suggesting a return package from Columbus might already be ironed out. Hayes, 31, finished second in scoring among Flyers players with 54 points in 81 games this season and provides a much-needed upgrade at center for Columbus, although his roughly $7.1MM cap hit is a tad rich for his skillset and career arc."

Sounds like Briere wants to be paid more to retain/take on Gudbrunson's contract.
Hold firm Danny, get your pound of flesh.

 

[04hockey]

he should, Hayes is a good hockey player if he's surrounded by decent linemates, he's above average in the offensive zone with his vision and passing, he is a point a game scorer if he gets those linemates .

 

[deadhead]

CBJ has a special interest b/c JG and Hayes were lights out playing on the same line in college.
So they probably see Hayes with JG as a 40+ ES, 60+ overall scorer - and you can live with mediocre defense with that kind of production.

 

[PDX Flyer]

No scoring? In 2012 playoffs:

Kopitar PPG
Brown PPG
Doughty 66 point pace
Richard's 62 point pace
Williams 62 point pace
Carter 53 point pace

Pitt and Philly had the highest goals/game because neither was playing any defense. And we all know that series was an outlier....4.33 and 3.73 g/g.

Next highest g/game? LA at 2.85...then NJ at 2.46, Fla 2.43.

So excluding the outliers, LA clearly had the best offense that playoffs....and the best defense.

oh, and in 2014, they had the top g/game in tbe playoffs.

Let's not pretend they ONLY had defense. Both playoffs wins they had the best offense. Funny how people ignore that.

Thank you for posting that. I didn’t have the energy to respond

 

[Cody Webster]

CBJ has a special interest b/c JG and Hayes were lights out playing on the same line in college.
So they probably see Hayes with JG as a 40+ ES, 60+ overall scorer - and you can live with mediocre defense with that kind of production.

Lights out in college, 8 years ago

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Lights out in college, 8 years ago

Two NHL level players lit it up in college.

Shocking stuff.

 

[Deadpool8812]

he should, Hayes is a good hockey player if he's surrounded by decent linemates, he's above average in the offensive zone with his vision and passing, he is a point a game scorer if he gets those linemates .

Sorry, is this sarcasm?

Hayes has never been a point per gme producer in his career, so I dont know how you can claim that. The guy hasn't even broken 60 points in a season

 

[FLYguy3911]

Two NHL level players lit it up in college.

Shocking stuff.

*One of the best college players of all-time and Kevin Hayes lit it up in college.

Too bad Bill Arnold retired. He was the center on that line.

 

[04hockey]

Sorry, is this sarcasm?

Hayes has never been a point per gme producer in his career, so I dont know how you can claim that. The guy hasn't even broken 60 points in a season

no it's not .....watch any Flyers games the past couple of years ?

Hayes is GOOD in the offensive zone.....with the right linemates ..... who knows

he could hardly be bothered this past season and he still produced 54 pts

 

[Beef Invictus]

no it's not .....watch any Flyers games the past couple of years ?

Hayes is GOOD in the offensive zone.....with the right linemates ..... who knows

he could hardly be bothered this past season and he still produced 54 pts

Hayes has had the right linemates. It's common for his linemates to produce less with him. I bet that's related to his propensity for holding the puck and ignoring numerous passing opportunities while trying to Zherdev things himself.

 

[Tripod]

Somebody has been drinking....

 

[Larry44]

Hayes has had the right linemates. It's common for his linemates to produce less with him. I bet that's related to his propensity for holding the puck and ignoring numerous passing opportunities while trying to Zherdev things himself.

I really hope we can get someone to take Hayes. A return home to Boston, who need Cs, would be perfect. Retain 50% and get a pick or a prospect, anything really as long as we don't have to add. What do people think Hayes' value is?

 

[chadateit]

I really hope we can get someone to take Hayes. A return home to Boston, who need Cs, would be perfect. Retain 50% and get a pick or a prospect, anything really as long as we don't have to add. What do people think Hayes' value is?

I'd set your expectations low for a Hayes return. I think you'll see significant retention (30-50%) or a really ugly contract in return. I don't expect more than a couple mid-round picks, or maybe a B-prospect and one pick. I'll be thrilled if we can even get a 2nd back as part of a deal.

 

[deadhead]

a 50+ point center at $4M is a bargain, at $7M a millstone around the Flyers' neck.

So retain $3M or take on a bad contract (Gudbranson) and he's have real value - compare to what you'd have to pay in free agency for that kind of production.

 

[Larry44]

I'd set your expectations low for a Hayes return. I think you'll see significant retention (30-50%) or a really ugly contract in return. I don't expect more than a couple mid-round picks, or maybe a B-prospect and one pick. I'll be thrilled if we can even get a 2nd back as part of a deal.

My expectations are even lower. I'd take a stack of practice pylons and a shooter tutor for Hayes, but if you want 50% retention, we have to get a pick back. As you say, a 2nd would be ideal, or a 2nd and 3rd if the Flyers take a bad one-year contract back. I never wanted Hayes, hated every second he's been a Flyer and can't wait until he's gone.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

a 50+ point center at $4M is a bargain, at $7M a millstone around the Flyers' neck.

So retain $3M or take on a bad contract (Gudbranson) and he's have real value - compare to what you'd have to pay in free agency for that kind of production.

You've basically described a Charlie Coyle more slanted to offense. And you're going to spend a retention slot and cap space for 3 years on that type of return because your coach can't be an adult. And also tell me this is good.

 

[deadhead]

You've basically described a Charlie Coyle more slanted to offense. And you're going to spend a retention slot and cap space for 3 years on that type of return because your coach can't be an adult. And also tell me this is good.

A retention slot and cap room aren't a big deal at this point of a rebuild - how many players are the Flyers going to retain on the next three years?
TDA is one year, Atkinson is next year, Sanheim you're not going to retain, and probably not Risto next summer (3 more years).
And they still gain $4M in cap room if they retain $3M.

Hayes' problem wasn't pique by Torts, it's that he's just not a good fit for the style of play under Torts.
Torts tried to make it work, Hayes was 2nd in minutes per game by Flyer forwards.
Tried Hayes at wing, but Hayes wasn't comfortable there, so he moved him back to center.

Sometimes you just have to accept sunk costs and move on.

 

[Beef Invictus]

A retention slot and cap room aren't a big deal at this point of a rebuild - how many players are the Flyers going to retain on the next three years?
TDA is one year, Atkinson is next year, Sanheim you're not going to retain, and probably not Risto next summer (3 more years).
And they still gain $4M in cap room if they retain $3M.

Hayes' problem wasn't pique by Torts, it's that he's just not a good fit for the style of play under Torts.
Torts tried to make it work, Hayes was 2nd in minutes per game by Flyer forwards.
Tried Hayes at wing, but Hayes wasn't comfortable there, so he moved him back to center.

Sometimes you just have to accept sunk costs and move on.

What if the retention slot is available sooner so they can leverage it for more picks to speed things along? Seems like something that matters.

 

[Larry44]

Provy is happy to go to a possession team…

"[The Flyers] never really had a full lineup and we were down and behind, didn't play with the puck as much the last two years, so it's really hard to create something offensively when we don't have the puck, when you defend the whole time," Provorov said. "That's why I'm really excited to play on this team, because there are a lot of guys that can play with the puck and there's a lot of guys that can put the puck in the net."

Provorov excited for fresh start with Blue Jackets

 

[FLYguy3911]

that was a predictable response.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

Provy is happy to go to a possession team…

"[The Flyers] never really had a full lineup and we were down and behind, didn't play with the puck as much the last two years, so it's really hard to create something offensively when we don't have the puck, when you defend the whole time," Provorov said. "That's why I'm really excited to play on this team, because there are a lot of guys that can play with the puck and there's a lot of guys that can put the puck in the net."

Provorov excited for fresh start with Blue Jackets

He's not wrong, but damn this dude is all about it being anyone's fault but his.