Blue Jays Discussion: It's still the off-season (Ray: Cy Young, Berrios: 7yr ext, Semien: to TEX, Gausman: signs 5y/$110m)

[Maestro84]

Texas just threw 325 million at a player that hasn't had a 4 win season since 2017. I see no way this doesn't turn into an absolute disaster.

Thank god it wasn’t with the Yankees. If Correa stays out of the AL east then I see this off-season as a W for Toronto

The Rangers were the only team that was willing to pay these guys a ton cuz they have nothing to lose. They know they’re still gonna suck for a while so why not pay some guys to come over to sell some tickets and merchandise for the next little while.

 

[Discoverer]

Are the Rangers turning into the Angels? All this money being tossed around to hitters when they don't have any pitching (Jon Gray isn't the answer)

Hey, that's not fair... they have Dane Dunning, too!

 

[Kurtz]

Damn the Rangers are having their version of cyber Monday lmao

Except everything is marked up 20% for them.

 

[93LEAFS]

Damn the Rangers are having their version of cyber Monday lmao

haha, don't really see any discounts though.

 

[Discoverer]

Yikes. This feels like A-Rod 2.0 for Texas - spending all that cash without having enough pieces in place around him.

Pretty wild... they've spend $550 million on three players, and now they're just a #1 and #2 starter away from being a .500 team!

 

[Kurtz]

 

[Greek_physique]

At this rate Correa will get $600mill

 

[The Nemesis]

Sucks to see Ray gone, but it's not the end of the world.

Also remember that just because one team gives a player a contract doesn't mean that the Jays or any other team could've had the player simply by offering the same/more. It was already said that Gausman turned down a bigger deal from the Mets to take the Jays' offer. Who knows what else factored into Ray choosing Seattle, baseball related or otherwise.

And in the end I think that the Gausman/Ray debate is a lot closer than people realize it's just something of a "devil you know" scenario coupled with the residual excitement of his performance last season.

Here are the pair's combined stats for the last two seasons (the shortened 2020 and 2021) courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference, but specifically controlled for just Ray's Blue Jays results, excluding his time to start last season in Arizona*

​

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][THEAD][TR="bgcolor: #D10456"][TD]------Ray*------[/TD][TD="align: center"]

​

[/TD]
[TD]---Gausman---[/TD][/TR][/THEAD]
[TBODY][TR][TD="align: center"]

214.0​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

IP​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

251.2​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: center"]

4.0​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

fWAR​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

6.4​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: center"]

3.74​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

fWAR/200ip​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

5.09​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: center"]

36​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

GS​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

43​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: center"]

5.85​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

IP/Start**​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

5.74​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: center"]

31.4%​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

K%​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

30.0%​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: center"]

7.6%​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

BB%​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

6.5%​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: center"]

3.03​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

ERA​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

3.00​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: center"]

3.85​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

FIP​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

3.02​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: center"]

.216​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

Opp. Avg​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

.211​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: center"]

1.11​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

WHIP​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

1.06​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: center"]

.276​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

BABIP​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

.279​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: center"]

0.83​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

GB/FB​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

1.15​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: center"]

43.6%​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

Hard Hit %​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

40.1%​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: center"]

10.1%​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

Barrel %​

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

7.1%​

[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
*Most of Rays' #s are taken from using Fangraphs' Splits tools to just check the time range for his Jays career (Aug 31, 2020 to present), but I had to manually math out a little bit of it because the splits tool doesn't show everything


**Gausman and Ray each had minimal IP as relievers over this last couple years (Ray had 3.1 innings of relief in 2020, Gausman pitched 5 innings in relief in 2020 as well). Raw IP totals at the top of the table include those relief innings, but Innings per Start have them factored out.

​

Overall they're very close to one another. Ray has fewer IP by virtue of not pitching the full 2020 in Toronto, but for rate stats or normalized figures they are generally very close to one another with the slight edge going to Gausman in basically everything except strikeout rate (only a 1.4% difference which means Ray might strike out an extra batter every 3-5 games) and length of start (at just a 10th in an inning more again it means Ray might last for one more batter every few games.)

Gausman's big advantages are in FIP, GB/FB rate, and hard hit/barrel rates where it seems like he is better at generating soft, less dangerous contact and controlling the things that pitchers can control. The increased GB rate will put more pressure on the D, but with the high strikeout rates it should also not be a back-breaker since it's not like he's a soft-tossing GB machine who only gets guys out on balls in play. He has the strikeout rate to nullify his own baserunners and generally doesn't walk a ton of guys to the point of compounding the issue.

In the end I would've been happy with either guy and while it sucks to lose Ray given he was already hooked into the Toronto fanbase and won a Cy Young here, we're essentially replacing Ray with about as close to a carbon copy of him as you can find on the market.

Oh and for people that don't like fWAR for pitchers, your bWAR figures for 2020/21 Gausman vs Blue Jays Ray are

Ray: 6.9, for a 200IP normalized figure of 6.45
Gausman: 6.6, for a 200IP normalized figure of 5.25

So there's a measure by which Ray has a notable advantage if you want one to hang on to. But by every more granular measure it's a razor thin difference between them. The difference mostly comes down to Fangraphs preferring Gausman's less FIPpy 2021 whereas B-R is less hung up on FIP and instead much prefers Ray's stronger inclusive results for this last season.

​

 

[canucksfan]

What teams have been linked to Correa?

 

[habamillions]

What teams have been linked to Correa?

Most think he will go to detroit.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

What teams have been linked to Correa?

Detroit seems the most likely. Aj Hinch and Correa were spotted meeting at a restaurant last week.

 

[The Nemesis]

Damn the Rangers are having their version of cyber Monday lmao

Cyber Monday's usually about getting deals and bargains. This is like getting the stuff in your cart then opening up the customer support chat window to ask if you can pay full price instead of taking the savings.

The Rangers have just parked the money truck in front of two elite middle infielders, but did so by giving them ridiculous term and have blown what has to be a massive chunk of their budget for the next few years without otherwise fixing their extremely broken team that lost 100 games last season.

@Cloned will appreciate the reference, but this feels like those bad last few years for the Oilers where they had McDavid, Draisaitl, and like 20 other shlubs and couldn't for the life of them figure out why nothing was getting any better.

 

[Starry Knight]

Gausman's ground ball propensity compared to Ray may make his aging more graceful at Rogers centre. If either starts to give up more contact, Ray may get into some homerun trouble comparatively playing out of the AL East parks.

 

[kb]

Except everything is marked up 20% for them.

Hahahaha....while the Mets get the 40% markup and at 28% financing.

 

[Blitzkrug]

561 million spent and they still have almost no rotation and bullpen lmao.

It's like they had highlight reels of the mid 2000s Rangers teams on in the office and decided "yes let's try that time when we had all of the bats and zero pitching again" idea.

 

[Maestro84]

Except everything is marked up 20% for them.

haha, don't really see any discounts though.

Lmao very true. They’re certainly on a spree though with no care for the money they’re spending

 

[canucksfan]

The most consistent proven model to build a contending team, draft and develop well, avoid shitty long-term contracts, patience, and when you do need to fill holes, that is when you spend money.

It's so stupid teams continue to sign players to huge contracts when their team sucks.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

dont go to walmart .ca for cyber mondays they are gouging the hell out of everything they have ps5's in stock but are asking 1500-2000$ lol

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Man Bear Pig]

dont go to walmart .ca for cyber mondays they are gouging the hell out of everything they have ps5's in stock but are asking 1500-2000$ lol

I had to check to see it myself. Who the hell is paying $1,500 for a console?

 

[The Nemesis]

dont go to walmart .ca for cyber mondays they are gouging the hell out of everything they have ps5's in stock but are asking 1500-2000$ lol

Texas Rangers: "I'll take 5."

 

[as Pure as Evil]

I had to check to see it myself. Who the hell is paying $1,500 for a console?

i thought i lucked out this morning but then i saw the prices and said f*** that. i wont pay double or triple for anything let alone a f***en console lol myswell get a new gaming cpu for that price lol

 

[kb]

Texas Rangers: "I'll take 5."

"But only at $2500 each."

 

[habamillions]

I like the idea of more playoff teams but i dont like the top teams picking the teams they want to play.

 

[Que]

I wonder if the Jays would consider Freddie Freeman at first and moving Vlad back to third.

I’m also expecting a trade for Ramirez (Cleveland), signing Kikuchi, and hopefully two more relief pitchers.

And what’s going on with Kenley Jansen? I would love to see him close out Jays games.