Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[ole ole]

Dvorak, Mesar , 2024 first

That better be a top 10 protected 1st or NOT A CHANCE.

 

[WentWughes]

Thankfully I actually trust the new management to do the right thing. It would be a pretty poor idea to trade valuable assets for Dubois this summer, especially Florida’s pick. It is very probable he is walking from the Jets no matter what so he will be available for free if we are willing to give him enough money and we will not be competing next year anyway. The best option is to retain all of our assets(especially the panthers pick) and move some numbers around so next off season we can offer Dubois a competitive contract. Fast tracking the rebuild won’t do us any favours, it is tiring being a perennial middle of the pack team. Holding off on any big moves might make for a boring off season but it is the best solution for the long term.

 

[MasterD]

Thankfully I actually trust the new management to do the right thing. It would be a pretty poor idea to trade valuable assets for Dubois this summer, especially Florida’s pick. It is very probable he is walking from the Jets no matter what so he will be available for free if we are willing to give him enough money and we will not be competing next year anyway. The best option is to retain all of our assets(especially the panthers pick) and move some numbers around so next off season we can offer Dubois a competitive contract. Fast tracking the rebuild won’t do us any favours, it is tiring being a perennial middle of the pack team. Holding off on any big moves might make for a boring off season but it is the best solution for the long term.

If the jets are 75%+ clear he's not returning, why would they keep him and let him walk? They'll trade him to NY or California or Florida or God knows where, and from there, who's to say he doesn't sign an 8years contact with the new team?

If Hughes thinks PLD doesn't fit with this team, I'm fine with that. But if he thinks he fits, he'll trade for him.

 

[MasterD]

So, for example:

Dubois is acquired via trade for 8 years. Caufield signs for 8 years and Suzuki has 7 years left on his contract, all between 7M and 7.875M.

Montreal wins the 2nd lottery and nabs Fantilli who has three good NHL seasons starting in his D+1 season.

If he signs for 5 years at 7.875M (the internal Cap ceiling figure), he will be eligible to signe an 8 year contract at higher money than Suzuki in his prime. Suzuki won't be worth as much in his next contract because he won't have as many prime years remaining (and that will help to balance out the new total cap because of the new internal Cap ceiling).

Plus, at 33 now, Montreal can either move on from Dubois (replaced by Fantilli, anyhow), or extend him for a short term value contract to keep vying for a cup.

You assume Suzuki Caufield Dubois AND Fantilli would be here for their whole 8 year long contracts. Plus potentially Guhle and/or Barron and/or Mailloux and/Hudson.

When's the last time that happened in the NHL?

Assuming the Florida pick ends up 17th and there's a deal in principal for a PLD trade is there anyone in the draft that if available at that spot would make you back out of the trade?
(excluding Bedard/Fantilli/Carlsson/Michkov as consensus top-4 talents)

Michkov is a concensus top-4 TALENT, but FAR FAR FAR from a concencus top-4 pick. Many people have him outside of the 1st round for contractual and geopolitical reasons.

 

[Scriptor]

Thankfully I actually trust the new management to do the right thing. It would be a pretty poor idea to trade valuable assets for Dubois this summer, especially Florida’s pick. It is very probable he is walking from the Jets no matter what so he will be available for free if we are willing to give him enough money and we will not be competing next year anyway. The best option is to retain all of our assets(especially the panthers pick) and move some numbers around so next off season we can offer Dubois a competitive contract. Fast tracking the rebuild won’t do us any favours, it is tiring being a perennial middle of the pack team. Holding off on any big moves might make for a boring off season but it is the best solution for the long term.

Time to repeat:

Adding Dubois is not fast-tracking the rebuild. It is part of a rebuild that looks to add talent any way it can, seizing opportunities when they present themselves.

The likelihood of a 17th OA pick being as good as PLD (never mind better) is extremely low. It has happened. Hell, late first round picks and 2nd round picks (or layer, even) have been better than PLD, but those are exceptions to the rule.

I look at trading the 17th OA pick for Dubois as having picked a phenomenal player with that 17th OA pick who could play immediately in the NHL and also have an immediate impact like a top-6 C.

Would we refuse that player? No

If he had engineered to burn a year off his ELC -- as any phenomenal player might -- would we be willing to sign that 17th OA pick to Suzuki money for his 2nd NHL contract in only two years? Of course.

What's the difference? Because, it's not an age thing since we get all of Dubois' upcoming prime years on a long term contract, without much of a tailspin in the two final years of an 8-year term as a 31 and 32 year-old player.

Having Dubois to help support Suzuki, Dach, Caufield and Slafkovsky can only be beneficial to their progress in their development.

I'd like someone to describe their dream slower rebuild and how Dubois prevents this?

If it's just a suck to the max in the hopes of winning the lottery for several more years, it shows zero imagination, IMO and rests on nothing solid as a plan.

Just hoping for pure luck and nothing else.

What if there is no such luck after 5 years? 5 more years of suckitude, throwing Suzuki, Caufiled, Dach, Slafkovsky Guhle, and Xhekaj out with the bath water?

That better be a top 10 protected 1st or NOT A CHANCE.

I'd do Dvorak, Mesar and the 2024 1st rounder if it was top-10 protected. It would be far from ridiculous because big name players this trade deadline were traded for protected 1st rounders.

 

[Scriptor]

You assume Suzuki Caufield Dubois AND Fantilli would be here for their whole 8 year long contracts. Plus potentially Guhle and/or Barron and/or Mailloux and/Hudson.

When's the last time that happened in the NHL?


Michkov is a concensus top-4 TALENT, but FAR FAR FAR from a concencus top-4 pick. Many people have him outside of the 1st round for contractual and geopolitical reasons.

You assume Suzuki Caufield Dubois AND Fantilli would be here for their whole 8 year long contracts. Plus potentially Guhle and/or Barron and/or Mailloux and/Hudson.

When's the last time that happened in the NHL?

I do. If the team is performing, they will be there. I also think they would sign a 2nd NHL contract (but not for 8 years) at a bit of discount to be able to keep the team together.

When the 4 or 5-year term would be up, they could cash in on a long term contract at mega bucks as 25, 26 or 27 year olds still with prime years on the books.

They would be replacing the other players as alpha dogs and the older players, if they are sticking around, will, in turn be doing as such at a discount.

It just keeps the wheel of success going.

I don't know if it's clear enough? Does it make any more sense?

 

[MasterD]

You assume Suzuki Caufield Dubois AND Fantilli would be here for their whole 8 year long contracts. Plus potentially Guhle and/or Barron and/or Mailloux and/Hudson.

When's the last time that happened in the NHL?

I do. If the team is performing, they will be there. I also think they would sign a 2nd NHL contract (but not for 8 years) at a bit of discount to be able to keep the team together.

When the 4 or 5-year term would be up, they could cash in on a long term contract at mega bucks as 25, 26 or 27 year olds still with prime years on the books.

They would be replacing the other players as alpha dogs and the older players, if they are sticking around, will, in turn be doing as such at a discount.

It just keeps the wheel of success going.

I don't know if it's clear enough? Does it make any more sense?

You judiciously skipped the last line.

When's the last time that happened in the NHL?

How's Chicago doing? Pittsburgh? How's the wheel of success spinning in Detroit since Datsyuk and Zetterberg left?

 

[MadMslm]

You judiciously skipped the last line.

When's the last time that happened in the NHL?

How's Chicago doing? Pittsburgh? How's the wheel of success spinning in Detroit since Datsyuk and Zetterberg left?

I fail to understand your point.

Maybe they won’t all spend their whole career here, and some might leave along the way, but as long as your core is signed and that you have a competitive team, players will stay (if they are fairly remunerated of course).

Chicago/Pittsburgh/Detroit didn’t falter because the core left, they faltered because eventually the core got old or injured and wasn’t as competitive.

On the contrary, without those deals those teams would have never been competitive.

Chicago window stayed a strong team for as long as they could even when they lost key components like Hossa, Sharp and Seabrook (other ones like Saad/Panarin/Shaw/Byfuglien for cap related reasons). They still found a way to move players around and extend their window because they had Kane, Toews and Keith.

Detroit was in a different situation, part of their roster was the remnant of of the pre-lockout glorious days. They had so many quality players and elite veterans that either retired or ended their career because of injuries that they couldn’t compete anymore. What killed them was the retirement of Lidstrom, the constant injuries to Zetterberg and Datsyuk leaving at the height of the KHL/NHL war.

Pittsburgh seems to constantly extend their window, they might have not made the playoffs this year and didn’t pass the first round in quite some time, but their core is still there. They had less quality players throughout their successful run than Chicago and Detroit. Yet their three core players are still here even after they lost Kessel, Fleury and Staal. They might be an old team and the core doesn’t have much time, but if they can get a goaltender that makes some save and maybe one or two depth player they could still do some damage.

In the end, all those teams suffered from the same thing. Success. That’s what happens when you’re on too for so long, you can even look at Washington that was on top of the league in the standings for years and now lost most of their depth while the core is older and more injuries arise. All those teams had players who were their for 10+ years.

Habs, if they ever get successful, will be in the same boat, it’s the way of the sport.

 

[Heffyhoof]

You judiciously skipped the last line.

When's the last time that happened in the NHL?

How's Chicago doing? Pittsburgh? How's the wheel of success spinning in Detroit since Datsyuk and Zetterberg left?

Would absolutely love to be in Chicago's and Pittsburgh's situations, aging teams, one rebuilding and the other soon to be with 3 cups each during their cores run.

Even Detroit got two cups out of Datsyuk and Zetterburg joined one year after the first one. A terrible fate to win multiple cups for sure....

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Dvorak, Mesar , 2024 first

Easy pass.

Dvorak and Mesar.

Dvorak and a 1st we know where it's at, so Florida's.

 

[Adam Michaels]

So will the Jets scratch him for the playoffs so he can be traded?

 

[Rapala]

Thankfully I actually trust the new management to do the right thing. It would be a pretty poor idea to trade valuable assets for Dubois this summer, especially Florida’s pick. It is very probable he is walking from the Jets no matter what so he will be available for free if we are willing to give him enough money and we will not be competing next year anyway. The best option is to retain all of our assets(especially the panthers pick) and move some numbers around so next off season we can offer Dubois a competitive contract. Fast tracking the rebuild won’t do us any favours, it is tiring being a perennial middle of the pack team. Holding off on any big moves might make for a boring off season but it is the best solution for the long term.

This was always the argument. Page one post one.
Now that we've come full circle can we close the thread?
I really hope it doesn't turn out to be "The Definitive, All-Embarrassing Pierre Luc Dubois Thread"

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

Michkov is a concensus top-4 TALENT, but FAR FAR FAR from a concencus top-4 pick. Many people have him outside of the 1st round for contractual and geopolitical reasons.

Who has him outside the 1st round? I haven't even seen him outside the top 5 in any mock draft.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Who has him outside the 1st round? I haven't even seen him outside the top 5 in any mock draft.

McCagg is some people's gospel.

 

[LaP]

There's 0 chance Mitchkov is not taken in the first round. If anyone believes it will happen then you can disregard anything that person says about the NHL and hockey in general.

 

[MasterD]

McCagg is some people's gospel.

I usually don't like him, but on this I think he's right. Anyone taking him top 5 with his contract and Russia's geopolitical situation right now has huge balls. Or dumb as f***.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I usually don't like him, but on this I think he's be right. Anyone taking him top 5 with his contract and Russia's geopolitical situation right now has huge balls. Or dumb as f***.

Yeah but he said he won't go round 1 - which is unlikely. Someone will take the risk at a certain point.. top 5 is unlikely except for a few orgs who I feel have tapped into Russia recently and feel comfortable about it.

 

[LaP]

Yeah but he said he won't go round 1 - which is unlikely. Someone will take the risk at a certain point.. top 5 is unlikely except for a few orgs who I feel have tapped into Russia recently and feel comfortable about it.

You can be 100% sure that a cup contending team will take the chance. Having a Mitchkov come over in 4-5 years on an ELC is very valuable. If he doesn't come then you just wasted a end of 1st round pick not a big deal and well worth the gamble.

 

[nilan30]

I don't know what so good about this guy but here's a 95 page thread about him. I say wait to try to sign him and if we miss out, oh well.

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

You can be 100% sure that a cup contending team will take the chance. Having a Mitchkov come over in 4-5 years on an ELC is very valuable. If he doesn't come then you just wasted a end of 1st round pick not a big deal and well worth the gamble.

Washington is always willing to take Russians, if he does indeed slip, I don't see him getting past Washington in the back half of the top 10.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Washington is always willing to take Russians, if he does indeed slip, I don't see him getting past Washington in the back half of the top 10.

Ovechkin is close to Putin, I don't suspect he'd have an issue getting him out as a favor.

 

[nhlfan9191]

You can be 100% sure that a cup contending team will take the chance. Having a Mitchkov come over in 4-5 years on an ELC is very valuable. If he doesn't come then you just wasted an end of 1st round pick not a big deal and well worth the gamble.

I don’t pass this player if he falls. He’s to good. Unless we trade the pick for super great value, the risk is worth it for me to take him if he’s there. But it’s ultimately up to the guys who get paid to do their diligence on the player to research if there’s more going on then we actually know publicly.

 

[LaP]

I don’t pass this player if he falls. He’s to good. Unless we trade the pick for super great value, the risk is worth it for me to take him if he’s there.

If he's still avalaible when we will speak for Florida and i hope we take him.

 

[nhlfan9191]

If he's still avalaible when we will speak for Florida and i hope we take him.

I understand the risk, but we have people employed that are there to make sure the risk doesn’t outweigh the reward. If there are big flags, then we pass. But he’s to talented not to take over the other players available 5-7 unless you’re certain it’s going to be a problem.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Apparently Lebrun said in an article he wrote for the Athletic about how the Habs and Jets had talked in the off season about PLD.

So, that's a 2nd person to state as such.