Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[Scriptor]

80 points won't up his value as far as our team is concerned. Possibly if Suzuki sucks balls next season but we have a benchmark.

Sure it will up his value (Cap-wise and trade cost wise). What Suzuki does has no bearing on Cap value for Dubois, unless there is a group of players making a critical mass argument for an internal Cap ceiling.

One player can if he is a genuine franchise or generational player, like Crosby did by stalling Malkin's Cap hit during his 2nd NHL contract.

 

[Scriptor]

I believe he is talking about UFA salary demands. However if he wants to be a Hab, it shouldn't matter as I can't see the two sides not finding common ground if it's truly the case.

With this roster, I struggle to understand who stays and who goes. We have a log jam of unproven young players which may be useful to trade in a deal of PLD. At this point I think waiting on the draft day and making a trade on day 2 unless the habs are willing to use the florida pick in a PLD trade.

I'm on the fence about trading for PLD, signing him as a UFA or even bringing him to Montreal at all. I like the idea of having a guy wanting to play here so badly, but I worry that if he goes cold and the media goes after him... Does he break? Does he recover? So many questions.

I like the idea of having a guy wanting to play here so badly, but I worry that if he goes cold and the media goes after him... Does he break? Does he recover? So many questions.

Why walk away from everything on maybe's and worse case scenarios?

He could crumble under the pressure in Montreal. Sure. But, given how hard-headed he has been while sticking to his guns, I'm pretty sure that a Dubois who chooses to come here (because an extension would need to be in place for us to trade for him, making it almost like a UFA signing) will have a thick enough skin to weather the Montreal media storm.

 

[JustAHabFan]

I would like to see how Dubois is performing this playoff. If he did very well, the Habs should try to make a trade for him before or at the draft. If he showed he is not interested with playoff hockey then the Habs should pass on him. If you don't want to play hard during playoff then you are npt a good hockey player IMHO.

 

[Scriptor]

As do I and I think it's hard to believe HuGo would pay Dubois any more than him on this team. Should we sign him it would be because he fits the model Hughes is trying to build. We have 8 million dollar players at best and to contend we'll need more than adding PLD at that level.

The contract can be easily structured to be worth more than Suzuki money at a 7.5M AAV for Dubois, keeping the Cap hit in reign and establishing, along with Caufield, an internal cap range between 7 and 7.875M for key core pieces. I could see Caufield signing for 7.25M, maybe less at 7M, but not as much as Suzuki, for sure.

The advantage of establishing an internal Cap ceiling in that range will be the pressure on limiting 2nd NHL contracts for other prospects with high ceilings, enabling Hughes to keep a roster together for longer periods of time.

Again, I return to the Malkin example who matched Crosby money in his second NHL contract, but for only 5 years. Then, he got more than 8.7M long term (9.5M, 8 years).

So, for example:

Dubois is acquired via trade for 8 years. Caufield signs for 8 years and Suzuki has 7 years left on his contract, all between 7M and 7.875M.

Montreal wins the 2nd lottery and nabs Fantilli who has three good NHL seasons starting in his D+1 season.

If he signs for 5 years at 7.875M (the internal Cap ceiling figure), he will be eligible to signe an 8 year contract at higher money than Suzuki in his prime. Suzuki won't be worth as much in his next contract because he won't have as many prime years remaining (and that will help to balance out the new total cap because of the new internal Cap ceiling).

Plus, at 33 now, Montreal can either move on from Dubois (replaced by Fantilli, anyhow), or extend him for a short term value contract to keep vying for a cup.

I see no problem with the Habs' Cap if they acquire Dubois. It extends to other players, with Forwards and Ds and the overlapping of ELCs, 2nd NHL contracts, etc.

It's entirely manageable and an ex agent as GM should be all over that reality no problem.

 

[salbutera]

I would like to see how Dubois is performing this playoff. If he did very well, the Habs should try to make a trade for him before or at the draft. If he showed he is not interested with playoff hockey then the Habs should pass on him. If you don't want to play hard during playoff then you are npt a good hockey player IMHO.

Be careful in using tournaments are a basis for evaluation - recall Drouins excellent playoffs prior to being dealt….

Playoffs like all tournaments are a singular data point as part of the overall evaluation

 

[McPhees Moustache]

Assuming the Florida pick ends up 17th and there's a deal in principal for a PLD trade is there anyone in the draft that if available at that spot would make you back out of the trade?
(excluding Bedard/Fantilli/Carlsson/Michkov as consensus top-4 talents)

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Better development of our prospects with a better supporting cast, including adding Dubois as a talented youngster who becomes the equivalent of a young veteran (not a veteran).

Good, young players progress playing with other good (young) players and do so as their confidence grows.

Teams aren't built by sucking for years with a bare roster and magically being contenders the very next season when every talented prospect accumulated for years suddenly joins the team.

Dubois is part of an extended rebuild, IMO, not something that screws up the process. I can't understand how anyone else would see it otherwise. That's just not an accurate view of a proper rebuild. Lots of magic beans and blinders not to understand how adding a 25-yr old Dubois is no different than adding an exceptional draft choice that produces like Dubois the very first year they play in the NHL during their D+1 season.

Why refuse Dubois? He's not old enough not to be part of a four or five year window for a Cup once the team is winding down the rebuild phase.

Yeah HuGo has stated time and time again that although they're committed to a proper rebuild, they're trying to fast track it where they can and getting PLD definitely does that. Like you eluded to he's not some Tavares type acquisition that's suppose to spell the end of the rebuilding phase. I mean he's only a year older than Suzuki, who is the oldest player of the Habs future core

 

[FrankMTL]

Assuming the Florida pick ends up 17th and there's a deal in principal for a PLD trade is there anyone in the draft that if available at that spot would make you back out of the trade?
(excluding Bedard/Fantilli/Carlsson/Michkov as consensus top-4 talents)

If Leonard/ Moore/ Barlow/ Danielson/ Heidt drop and are available at 17, I'd rather hold onto the pick and take a chance in getting Dubois as a UFA or potentially another trade.

 

[KevSkillz4]

I really think that Dubois will be the "Dach" trade in this year draft. Can't wait to see that. I'm really hype about acquiring Dubois!

 

[HABitual Fan]

There may also not be better options and the point is that, at (soon to be) 25, Dubois fits the young core and should continue to grow and progress with that core over the next years.

Your 'maybe', at this stage, is just a mirage and not a way to plan or build a roster, IMO.

Or speculating that he will get better is the mirage, if he doesn't, that contract may be what prevents the team from being able to acquire and pay a player better than him. This leads to the settling for mediocre that the team has experienced for far too many years.

 

[ML16]

What do you think? What would be your guess?

I've already hinted to an answer in my post. Let me add something. If we look at the best comparable from last season, Bo Horvat got Anthony Beauviller, Aatu Raty and conditional first.

So Dvorack + Kidney + FLA first make a lot of sense.

Now, we don't know whats going to be the landscape of the next TDL. i.e. how many buyers vs sellers, who else going to be available.

All in all, I think it's in Winnipeg best interest to keep Dubois until TDL where they would be able to extract the most value.


In an other train of thought. I would have guess that Hughes would be against an hostile offer. But Gorton just said that one thing he likes about Hughes is his aggressiveness.

How about a KK move?
Looking quickly at Winnipeg's capfriendly, they have a few RFA and only 3M coming off from UFA. They were right at the cap.

Would MTL be willing to offer 8,4 M for a 1st, 2nd, 3rd?

I think a plausible package for Dubois this summer must imperatively have either FLA’s 2023 1st or CGY’s 2025 1st going to Winnipeg as a starting point.

In addition to that pick, my best offer would include Mesar or Farrell, at the express condition however that Hoffman or Dvorak is also included in the deal.

If the Jets don’t accept the premisse of significant salary going back to them - if they want to use Dubois’ projected cap space to sign a UFA for instance - by best offer would be something like FLA’s pick, Ylonen and Kidney/Kapanen.

As for the offer sheet idea, I think it’s more opportune as a bargaining tool insofar as if Dubois signs with the Habs and the Jets match, they can’t trade him at TDL.

Regarding this strategy, if the Habs resort to such nuclear option, they can’t go over 6.3M because Bergevin squandered MTL’s 2024 2nd in the Dvorak deal…

Edit: typo

 

[ReHabs]

On the topic of the Jets, it appears the hockey organization is suffering from fewer season ticket renewals and possibly dwindling fan interest. Keep this in mind if you think they'll sell PLD for cheap -- it likely isn't in their interest to rebuild (ie acquire magic beans) and crush their fan interest with multiple consecutive losing seasons at such a pivotal moment for their organization.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

The stakes are high for PLD in the playoffs this year. You can bet that Hugues and Gorton are going to watch him play closely. If they dont like what they see, I dont see them trading for him this summer or trade Florida's pick for him. If Dubois really wants to come play for MTL right this summer, he'll have to prove himself because Hugues and Gorton arent going to spend huge assets for a player that doesnt elevate his play when it counts.

How Dubois performs in these playoffs will have no effect on whether Hughes wants to get him or not. Dubois isn't an unknown quantity. He has 6 nhl reg seasons and 6 playoff series under his belt. The habs already know what they would be getting with Dubois.

 

[MXD]

On the topic of the Jets, it appears the hockey organization is suffering from fewer season ticket renewals and possibly dwindling fan interest. Keep this in mind if you think they'll sell PLD for cheap -- it likely isn't in their interest to rebuild (ie acquire magic beans) and crush their fan interest with multiple consecutive losing seasons at such a pivotal moment for their organization.

In that case, they can even less afford not trading him and losing him for nothing.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

How Dubois performs in these playoffs will have no effect on whether Hughes wants to get him or not. Dubois isn't an unknown quantity. He has 6 nhl reg seasons and 6 playoff series under his belt. The habs already know what they would be getting with Dubois.

He was mediocre in his last playoff appearance. They will want to see that it wasn't a trend. They will still be interested but the trade and contact offer might be lower.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

I would like to see how Dubois is performing this playoff. If he did very well, the Habs should try to make a trade for him before or at the draft. If he showed he is not interested with playoff hockey then the Habs should pass on him. If you don't want to play hard during playoff then you are npt a good hockey player IMHO.

i guess you missed the series against Toronto

When Dubois wants too hes a great player and he wants to play for the Habs idc what he does with Winnipeg he was complete ass in the series against us but i still want him because i know exactly how he plays when he wants too and that is the PLD will be getting not the one ur watching in Winnipeg where hes been waiting to leave

 

[BLONG7]

No one is saying otherwise, he picked the wrong guy like he did many time before... and after. That pick is merely part of an established pattern of bad choice.

You said it wasn't a reach, which is why I quoted you.....then you say no one is saying otherwise?
I was very surprised when they gave in to the RDS media types, but it's all under the bridge now....I would think most would be tired of the media in Montreal, only wanting one thing..........where as most of us just want to win, no matter where these kids are born....
Cheers.......

 

[BLONG7]

It's clear that gutting the organization to acquire Dubois would be a ridiculous proposition -- and I also don't think that Hughes would do something like that.

However, we have to remain sane and not look at players like Harris or Barron being traded for Dubois as gutting the organization.

There is some sort of disconnect between the real value of Dubois VS the imagined value of regular prospects that teams have name of in their system as it stands.

It will all depend what Hughes can get away with trading for Dubois. I don't think there will be some crazy selling of the farm to acquire Dubois. Not in the least.

I'd definitely be for acquiring a player like Keller at 7.15M, for example, on top of Dubois nearer the 7.5M range, provided we sign Caufield at around 7M.

An average of 7.38M (go as high as 7.5M) for these four players would not be drastic in the least, given the rising Cap over the coming years and the projected 94M ceiling within four or five years.

Dach could become a 7M player after three more years and we would still be well off, Cap wise, able to have a couple of well-paid Ds.

Young energy players with skill that can be signed to cheaper contracts will become a useful part of the lineup, along with ELC contracts that will join the roster and, eventually replace more expensive contracts.

The fact that we have so many young players helps as well.

Hypothetically, with Dubois and Keller added to the roster, for example, along with Anderson still there as a veteran, a few young players on ELCs added, cheaper value contracts to fill out the forward group, etc., we could also cap the 2nd NHL contracts of younger players to coincide with the end of longer contracts to more expensive players ahead of them on the depth chart.

And, honestly, those contracts at &M or 8M will become value contracts over time. Adding better players as prospects won't prevent us from trading the higher paid players to adjust the roster -- far from it. Plus, those value contracts should provide a return of interesting assets to keep th wheel turning.

Dubois, with a year or two left on his contract (31 and 32 years of age, still winding down in his prime), push come to shove with greater, younger talent pushing for his roster spot, would be a huge value in a trade elsewhere.

I see scarecrow posts regularly that fail to look at the whole picture and suggest that present day situations are etched in stone permanently and just serve as obstacles for the future.

It's just not the case.

Some great points...................one thing though, don't think any of those kids agents, will be wanting 7M and change for their clients, we can hope but highly unlikely.

 

[Expos94]

I think a plausible package for Dubois this summer must imperatively have either FLA’s 2023 1st or CGY’s 2025 1st going to Winnipeg as a starting point.

In addition to that pick, my best offer would include Mesar or Farrell, at the express condition however that Hoffman or Dvorak is also included in the deal.

If the Jets don’t accept the premisse of significant salary going back to them - if they want to use Dubois’ projected cap space to sign a UFA for instance - by best offer would be something like FLA’s pick, Ylonen and Kidney/Kapanen.

As for the offer sheet idea, I think it’s more opportune as a bargaining tool insofar as if Dubois signs with the Habs and the Jets match, they can’t trade him at TDL.

Regarding this strategy, if the Habs resort to such nuclear option, they can’t go over 6.3M because Bergevin squandered MTL’s 2024 2nd in the Dvorak deal…

Edit: typo

Dvorak, Mesar , 2024 first

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Dvorak, Mesar , 2024 first

2023 FLA first, not touching our first pick next season it will be lottery bound

 

[Scriptor]

If Leonard/ Moore/ Barlow/ Danielson/ Heidt drop and are available at 17, I'd rather hold onto the pick and take a chance in getting Dubois as a UFA or potentially another trade.

So, just about any pick will make you want to wait on Dubois and hold onto the 17th OA.

Don't think you needed to list those players.

Personally, I'd pass up on those prospects if I was sure we could trade the pick and extend Dubois long term at no more than Suzuki money.

 

[nhlfan9191]

He was mediocre in his last playoff appearance. They will want to see that it wasn't a trend. They will still be interested but the trade and contact offer might be lower.

From what I’ve read from Jets fans, he’s been mediocre to finish all 3 seasons he’s been there and in the post season. I haven’t hawk eyed this guy like some of our fans who have been super enthusiastic to get him for a years now, but I do know that’s been the case this year and if that’s true it’s a problem for anyone acquiring him, especially if it bleeds into the postseason.

 

[OnTheRun]

You said it wasn't a reach, which is why I quoted you.....then you say no one is saying otherwise?
I was very surprised when they gave in to the RDS media types, but it's all under the bridge now....I would think most would be tired of the media in Montreal, only wanting one thing..........where as most of us just want to win, no matter where these kids are born....
Cheers.......

Because it wasn't a reach? They took a guy expected to go in the middle of the first round... in the middle of the first round.

 

[MXD]

Because it wasn't a reach? They took a guy expected to go in the middle of the first round... in the middle of the first round.

Leblanc being a reach is much more of talking point than an actual fact.

What's generally forgotten about Leblanc is that he suffered a pretty serious leg injury (during, out of all things, a fight) and never was the same afterwards. He was tracking to end up a middle-6 player at best, and probably more of the third liner variety, but he could defintely have been useful for a while.

 

[26Mats]

If Leonard/ Moore/ Barlow/ Danielson/ Heidt drop and are available at 17, I'd rather hold onto the pick and take a chance in getting Dubois as a UFA or potentially another trade.

I trust HuGo's judgement. But it sure would be nice ccx to add Dubois by giving up pieces we already have a plethora of, like LD prospects and small forward prospects like Mesar and Farrell.