Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[BehindTheTimes]

What are the odds a better UFA wants to sign here in 2 years? I don't remember a better UFA signing better than PLD. Kovy maybe but we trade for him... Cammy and Gionta come to mind but were nowhere near as good.

Who do you have in mind ? Especially someone under 25 we wouldn't have to trade for because he wish to sign here... Occasions like PLD don't happen often, MTL didn't experienced it in 30 years. Denying the 6f3 local center for a possible unicorn is pretty crazy if you ask me.

Build a winning environment and UFAs will come. Montreal is not a destination without obstacles, but it’s been hard to attract UFA’s for decades because the team was never perceived to be a Stanley cup contender. We’ve sucked for the better part of 20 years and even when he had decent teams under Gainey they were more ir less pretenders rather than contenders.

I think if you create the right environment some of those tough obstacles like fan/media exposure, weather, taxes etc etc can be overcome, but no one wants to go through all that bullshit for a losing org.

 

[Scriptor]

Definitely not saying they will improve more than the Habs just saying that we must not take for granted that they ll finish behind MTL

Anything is always possible. Basically, reason to watch the start of the season -- until everything falls apart

Actually there is no riskier position for a GM to be than trading for an UFA-to-be an extend the player immediately because the player knows that the GM is under enormous pressure to get the deal done and has just shown to value the player very high (as they have paid high price to obtain the player), giving the player strong negotiation position. [see Seth Jones, Pageau]. The situation is different where the deal is made as a condition of the trade (Tkatchuck, Stone).

The deal would be made as a condition of the trade, IMO. Where the hell did it sound like we would trade for Dubois and then pray he would sign with us from what I've been saying like forever?

Of course you don't do an open-ended trade...

 

[Destopcorner]

Build a winning environment and UFAs will come. Montreal is not a destination without obstacles, but it’s been hard to attract UFA’s for decades because the team was never perceived to be a Stanley cup contender. We’ve sucked for the better part of 20 years and even when he had decent teams under Gainey they were more ir less pretenders rather than contenders.

I think if you create the right environment some of those tough obstacles like fan/media exposure, weather, taxes etc etc can be overcome, but no one wants to go through all that bullshit for a losing org.

Yes it will come over time... maybe. But usually we are far from being a favorite destination for anyone. Point is someone's crazy enough to want it now and sign long term. Why wait?

Proven 60pts 25yo 6f3 center is easily top 5% in UFA categorie. The odds a player of this caliber entertaining the idea of coming here is near zero. I prefer one bird in hand than hope and lottery tickets.

 

[Andrei79]

When was the last time a Quebec born player stayed 9 straight years on this club? Wasnt it Brisebois ? When was the last time it happened with no drama surrounding the player ?

 

[HABitual Fan]

It is interesting how the narrative has changed in the arguments being presented. The same people wanting to trade assets to acquire PLD, then go on to talk about UFA's not signing here. He is not a UFA, if he wants to come here as a UFA, then by all means I would consider signing him. If I am trading assets, then it is unfair to not consider who may be available in a trade 2 years from now for the same assets and 8M in salary that would be spent to bring him here now. Don't move the goalposts by comparing a hockey trade with signing a UFA, that is comparing apples to oranges.

 

[ReHabs]

It is interesting how the narrative has changed in the arguments being presented. The same people wanting to trade assets to acquire PLD, then go on to talk about UFA's not signing here. He is not a UFA, if he wants to come here as a UFA, then by all means I would consider signing him. If I am trading assets, then it is unfair to not consider who may be available in a trade 2 years from now for the same assets and 8M in salary that would be spent to bring him here now. Don't move the goalposts by comparing a hockey trade with signing a UFA, that is comparing apples to oranges.

I'm not sure this is a real conundrum.

There is no narrative here, some people believe PLD is worth acquiring even if the Habs have to trade assets for him which means spending cap space + assets. Others think PLD is worth it only if we spend cap space, which means they do not think his trade cost is worth acquiring him early. Others still think PLD is a bad person, floater, etc and not worth acquiring at all. And there's a contingent who seem to think it is against the natural order to acquire impactful players by trade or signing before you have a core that is entirely homegrown or that the Bergevin-era motto Build Through the Draft means you mustn't build in any other way.

Going backward

Group 4 think it's too early to acquire a 25 year old C/W that is 6'4" and scores 60+ pts a season.
Group 3 think this specific 25 year old C/W that is 6'4" and scores 60+ pts a season is not worth acquiring for character-related reasons.
Group 2 think this specific 25 year old C/W that is 6'4" and scores 60+ pts a season is not worth acquiring for trade asset-related reasons.
Group 1 think this specific 25 year old C/W that is 6'4" and scores 60+ pts a season is worth trading assets to secure.

Note that PLD would be the 2nd best scorer on the Habs today and has a better PPG than our first best scorer Nick Suzuki. By all accounts are not flush with proven/established scoring depth at the NHL level. Similarly we do not have proven/established scoring-line forward with his physical profile.

If we eliminate the common factors here, the fundamental camp of each of these groups is as such:
Group 4: The rebuild is only getting started, it's too early to spend assets or cap space on a 25 year old player.
Group 3: PLD has shown undesirable tendencies which are discouraging or entirely eliminate the player as a option.
Group 2: The hypothetical or rumoured trade-assets are more valuable than signing him one year early AND the Habs are just as likely to sign him as a UFA so there is no benefit to move assets to secure him a year early.
Group 1: The Habs are better set to compete if they have PLD secured ASAP than if they hold onto the trade assets it would cost to acquire him AND the Habs have an unfortunate history of not signing UFAs so the Habs risk losing his services if he hits the open market

I've tried to be fair to the four groups but my personal conviction is strongly toward Group 1 because I feel with Suzuki, Caufield, and Dach already in hand we do not have to spin our wheels for 4+ years to wait for the mid-first-round 2023 draftee to become an NHL impact player.

 

[26Mats]

I'm not sure this is a real conundrum.

There is no narrative here, some people believe PLD is worth acquiring even if the Habs have to trade assets for him which means spending cap space + assets. Others think PLD is worth it only if we spend cap space, which means they do not think his trade cost is worth acquiring him early. Others still think PLD is a bad person, floater, etc and not worth acquiring at all. And there's a contingent who seem to think it is against the natural order to acquire impactful players by trade or signing before you have a core that is entirely homegrown or that the Bergevin-era motto Build Through the Draft means you mustn't build in any other way.

Going backward

Group 4 think it's too early to acquire a 25 year old C/W that is 6'4" and scores 60+ pts a season.
Group 3 think this specific 25 year old C/W that is 6'4" and scores 60+ pts a season is not worth acquiring for character-related reasons.
Group 2 think this specific 25 year old C/W that is 6'4" and scores 60+ pts a season is not worth acquiring for trade asset-related reasons.
Group 1 think this specific 25 year old C/W that is 6'4" and scores 60+ pts a season is worth trading assets to secure.

Note that PLD would be the 2nd best scorer on the Habs today and has a better PPG than our first best scorer Nick Suzuki. By all accounts are not flush with proven/established scoring depth at the NHL level. Similarly we do not have proven/established scoring-line forward with his physical profile.

If we eliminate the common factors here, the fundamental camp of each of these groups is as such:
Group 4: The rebuild is only getting started, it's too early to spend assets or cap space on a 25 year old player.
Group 3: PLD has shown undesirable tendencies which are discouraging or entirely eliminate the player as a option.
Group 2: The hypothetical or rumoured trade-assets are more valuable than signing him one year early AND the Habs are just as likely to sign him as a UFA so there is no benefit to move assets to secure him a year early.
Group 1: The Habs are better set to compete if they have PLD secured ASAP than if they hold onto the trade assets it would cost to acquire him AND the Habs have an unfortunate history of not signing UFAs so the Habs risk losing his services if he hits the open market

I've tried to be fair to the four groups but my personal conviction is strongly toward Group 1 because I feel with Suzuki, Caufield, and Dach already in hand we do not have to spin our wheels for 4+ years to wait for the mid-first-round 2023 draftee to become an NHL impact player.

What is the maximum you'd give up to get him this summer, sd o that you don't have to risk him signing elsewhere next summer?

 

[ReHabs]

What is the maximum you'd give up to get him this summer, sd o that you don't have to risk him signing elsewhere next summer?

It depends on a lot of variables we don’t know, but let’s assume PLD wants a market-price contract (c. 8m) and WPG doesn’t play hardball and refuse to negotiate.

It depends on Anderson and if he has WPG on his NTC (very likely he does). Anderson is a valuable frame but he doesn’t have the hockey IQ to play in MSL’s unstructured system and his low productivity means he’s not worth his cap hit and we already have to carry Armia and Gallagher (1/8th of our total cap space) going forward.

It depends on WPG’s needs, I’ve no idea what they intend to do going forward. I think it really depends on how they look in this year’s playoffs.

And doesn’t it also depend on how PLD looks in this year’s playoffs?

All that to say I don’t feel confident stating a maximum trade value because I don’t know what it is WPG values. With that said… at a maximum I’d move the combined value of about two not top10 first round picks for PLD. Which could manifest as one of Dvorak or Mešar + a first round pick (CGY or FLA’s), or Anderson + prospect or something like that.

A 25 year old powerful forward who’d be a top3 producer on our team is certainly worth two lower first round picks.

 

[RationalExpectations]

It depends on a lot of variables we don’t know, but let’s assume PLD wants a market-price contract (c. 8m) and WPG doesn’t play hardball and refuse to negotiate.

It depends on Anderson and if he has WPG on his NTC (very likely he does). Anderson is a valuable frame but he doesn’t have the hockey IQ to play in MSL’s unstructured system and his low productivity means he’s not worth his cap hit and we already have to carry Armia and Gallagher (1/8th of our total cap space) going forward.

It depends on WPG’s needs, I’ve no idea what they intend to do going forward. I think it really depends on how they look in this year’s playoffs.

And doesn’t it also depend on how PLD looks in this year’s playoffs?

All that to say I don’t feel confident stating a maximum trade value because I don’t know what it is WPG values. With that said… at a maximum I’d move the combined value of about two not top10 first round picks for PLD. Which could manifest as one of Dvorak or Mešar + a first round pick (CGY or FLA’s), or Anderson + prospect or something like that.

A 25 year old powerful forward who’d be a top3 producer on our team is certainly worth two lower first round picks.

My problem with Dubois is that I am not sure what he really is. He has only scored 63 points while playing PP minutes and ES with good linemates. However he is +5 with other top players in WPG being in the -

If he is a 60 point 2C this is very well but then he can t command a 8m contract like many are suggesting right ?

 

[HABitual Fan]

I'm not sure this is a real conundrum.

There is no narrative here, some people believe PLD is worth acquiring even if the Habs have to trade assets for him which means spending cap space + assets. Others think PLD is worth it only if we spend cap space, which means they do not think his trade cost is worth acquiring him early. Others still think PLD is a bad person, floater, etc and not worth acquiring at all. And there's a contingent who seem to think it is against the natural order to acquire impactful players by trade or signing before you have a core that is entirely homegrown or that the Bergevin-era motto Build Through the Draft means you mustn't build in any other way.

Going backward

Group 4 think it's too early to acquire a 25 year old C/W that is 6'4" and scores 60+ pts a season.
Group 3 think this specific 25 year old C/W that is 6'4" and scores 60+ pts a season is not worth acquiring for character-related reasons.
Group 2 think this specific 25 year old C/W that is 6'4" and scores 60+ pts a season is not worth acquiring for trade asset-related reasons.
Group 1 think this specific 25 year old C/W that is 6'4" and scores 60+ pts a season is worth trading assets to secure.

Note that PLD would be the 2nd best scorer on the Habs today and has a better PPG than our first best scorer Nick Suzuki. By all accounts are not flush with proven/established scoring depth at the NHL level. Similarly we do not have proven/established scoring-line forward with his physical profile.

If we eliminate the common factors here, the fundamental camp of each of these groups is as such:
Group 4: The rebuild is only getting started, it's too early to spend assets or cap space on a 25 year old player.
Group 3: PLD has shown undesirable tendencies which are discouraging or entirely eliminate the player as a option.
Group 2: The hypothetical or rumoured trade-assets are more valuable than signing him one year early AND the Habs are just as likely to sign him as a UFA so there is no benefit to move assets to secure him a year early.
Group 1: The Habs are better set to compete if they have PLD secured ASAP than if they hold onto the trade assets it would cost to acquire him AND the Habs have an unfortunate history of not signing UFAs so the Habs risk losing his services if he hits the open market

I've tried to be fair to the four groups but my personal conviction is strongly toward Group 1 because I feel with Suzuki, Caufield, and Dach already in hand we do not have to spin our wheels for 4+ years to wait for the mid-first-round 2023 draftee to become an NHL impact player.

Why exactly is it PLD or bust? In 2 or 3 years with that cap space and the assets in hand, there may be better options than him available in a trade or UFA, or positionally ones that better meet team needs at that time. We are not adding a PPG superstar here, only a slight upgrade on a Suzuki level player.
For me it is like buying a car today that I can only use in 3 years. It might match my current needs and be one of the better models on the market, but by the time I actually will get to benefit by driving the car, it may be obsolete or no longer match my requirements.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Anything is always possible. Basically, reason to watch the start of the season -- until everything falls apart


The deal would be made as a condition of the trade, IMO. Where the hell did it sound like we would trade for Dubois and then pray he would sign with us from what I've been saying like forever?

Of course you don't do an open-ended

Yes it will come over time... maybe. But usually we are far from being a favorite destination for anyone. Point is someone's crazy enough to want it now and sign long term. Why wait?

Proven 60pts 25yo 6f3 center is easily top 5% in UFA categorie. The odds a player of this caliber entertaining the idea of coming here is near zero. I prefer one bird in hand than hope and lottery tickets.

Because the cost of the player and the skill set he brings is unlikely to move the needle imo. I’d rather allocate 8m towards someone who offers more than 60-65 points. I certainly wouldn’t start tossing assets at him, especially if he wants to come here and only here.

If it’s true, signing him when he’s a UFA should be a cake walk. You can’t have a bunch good, not great players eating all your capspace. That’s how Marc Bergevin builds a team.

 

[Heffyhoof]

Why exactly is it PLD or bust? In 2 or 3 years with that cap space and the assets in hand, there may be better options than him available in a trade or UFA, or positionally ones that better meet team needs at that time. We are not adding a PPG superstar here, only a slight upgrade on a Suzuki level player.
For me it is like buying a car today that I can only use in 3 years. It might match my current needs and be one of the better models on the market, but by the time I actually will get to benefit by driving the car, it may be obsolete or no longer match my requirements.

I would contend that Suzuki is the superior player between the two. More points, albeit in more games, but on a much worse team without half the supporting cast PLD has. I love Suzuki but would love it more if he was the 1b center.

 

[BLONG7]

This guy would make our top 6 very good...I just don't want to gut the the organization to get him when in one year's time, he comes for free....
Hughes has the leverage, not Chevy...

 

[waitin425]

For those that are waffling on whether to acquire PLD or think we should wait until UFA. What happens if he has an 80 point season next year. That isn't impossible for him.

The asset management argument works both ways. I am all for getting him this off season for a Dvo + Panthers pick + Norlinder/Engstrom level package and signing him while his perceived value is definitely around Suzuki. I don't want to wait and see his UFA cost go up the next year, because he plays like a mad man next year during his 1st UFA year. Let's get him now. Sign him to a reasonable contract based on his proven production (think 8 x 8) and reap the rewards for years to come.

 

[OnTheRun]

This guy would make our top 6 very good...I just don't want to gut the the organization to get him when in one year's time, he comes for free....
Hughes has the leverage, not Chevy...

I don't think the fear about the Habs gutting themselves to acquire PLD is legitimate. There is no precedent of reckless dealing nor any indication we are willing to go that length.

Everyone involved is well aware that PLD won't be a Jets anymore come July 2024, that simple fact set the boundaries on what would be a fair price to pay to to reach that inevitable conclusion one year earlier, so to speak.

 

[ReHabs]

My problem with Dubois is that I am not sure what he really is. He has only scored 63 points while playing PP minutes and ES with good linemates. However he is +5 with other top players in WPG being in the -

If he is a 60 point 2C this is very well but then he can t command a 8m contract like many are suggesting right ?

The PLD that exists today would be one of our three best players. Beggars can’t be choosers.

With his size profile he will get a 8m cap hit, more or less 1m. It just is what it is. We are blowing 6.5m on Gallagher.

Why exactly is it PLD or bust? In 2 or 3 years with that cap space and the assets in hand, there may be better options than him available in a trade or UFA, or positionally ones that better meet team needs at that time. We are not adding a PPG superstar here, only a slight upgrade on a Suzuki level player.
For me it is like buying a car today that I can only use in 3 years. It might match my current needs and be one of the better models on the market, but by the time I actually will get to benefit by driving the car, it may be obsolete or no longer match my requirements.

You can use PLD from the first season you get him. A better team performs better, competes harder, raises trade values, and so on. He would instantly be a top3 player on our team, it isn’t as if we have so much depth that we don’t need a player who paces for 70pts. We don’t have a single 70pt player! Not one!

It isn’t PLD or bust, far from it — the Habs should be in on every top player that is available, but to quote the worst GM in Habs history They’re Just Not Available. PLD happens to be available.

 

[Schooner Guy]

When was the last time a Quebec born player stayed 9 straight years on this club? Wasnt it Brisebois ? When was the last time it happened with no drama surrounding the player ?

It feels like Drouin's been here for 19 straight years.

 

[sampollock]

This guy would make our top 6 very good...I just don't want to gut the the organization to get him when in one year's time, he comes for free....
Hughes has the leverage, not Chevy...

well on PLD ufa day, $$$$ has the leverage.
some team could pay him way more then Kent offers, and then this board crashes.
no way a for sure he signs here as a ufa. $$$ talks. not a jeresy to put on, sadly that is the case

 

[Destopcorner]

Because the cost of the player and the skill set he brings is unlikely to move the needle imo. I’d rather allocate 8m towards someone who offers more than 60-65 points. I certainly wouldn’t start tossing assets at him, especially if he wants to come here and only here.

If it’s true, signing him when he’s a UFA should be a cake walk. You can’t have a bunch good, not great players eating all your capspace. That’s how Marc Bergevin builds a team.

Where do you get that? What makes you 100% sure he won't sign in Boston if Winnipeg decides to trade him there? Plus can you believe he'd be good enough for Boston and not for us? lol

That's not an argument saying he will sign here and only here, that's wishful thinking. I'm not taking the chance of loosing a good local who can handle the jungle pressure.

We have TONS of prospects and picks (11 this year) which we will loose in the next couple of years because of the 50 contract limit. Protecting these assets at all cost will equal opportunity cost, there is only 6 spots in a top 6.

Edit: Also, good luck finding a better player who wants to play here at 8m and in this age range. Wishful thinking again, these are rarely available as you know. When was the last time we found one?

 

[26Mats]

It depends on a lot of variables we don’t know, but let’s assume PLD wants a market-price contract (c. 8m) and WPG doesn’t play hardball and refuse to negotiate.

It depends on Anderson and if he has WPG on his NTC (very likely he does). Anderson is a valuable frame but he doesn’t have the hockey IQ to play in MSL’s unstructured system and his low productivity means he’s not worth his cap hit and we already have to carry Armia and Gallagher (1/8th of our total cap space) going forward.

It depends on WPG’s needs, I’ve no idea what they intend to do going forward. I think it really depends on how they look in this year’s playoffs.

And doesn’t it also depend on how PLD looks in this year’s playoffs?

All that to say I don’t feel confident stating a maximum trade value because I don’t know what it is WPG values. With that said… at a maximum I’d move the combined value of about two not top10 first round picks for PLD. Which could manifest as one of Dvorak or Mešar + a first round pick (CGY or FLA’s), or Anderson + prospect or something like that.

A 25 year old powerful forward who’d be a top3 producer on our team is certainly worth two lower first round picks.

Mesar + FLA 1st might get it done. Beck + FLA 1st might get it done.

That 2025 1st though, will be really interesting to follow. If both the Flames as Panthers miss the playoffs in 2025, as they almost did this year, it has a high chance of being a really good pick.

 

[Destopcorner]

Why exactly is it PLD or bust? In 2 or 3 years with that cap space and the assets in hand, there may be better options than him available in a trade or UFA, or positionally ones that better meet team needs at that time. We are not adding a PPG superstar here, only a slight upgrade on a Suzuki level player.
For me it is like buying a car today that I can only use in 3 years. It might match my current needs and be one of the better models on the market, but by the time I actually will get to benefit by driving the car, it may be obsolete or no longer match my requirements.

The fact there MAY be is again, hope. The car thing is cringe at most. You can buy a car, all you need is money. Trading or signing players is whole different ballgame. Plus that car will likely cost much more in 3 years with inflation right? Better options positionally ones... are we stack with 6f3 centers?

 

[Captain97]

He grew 3 inches overnight?

Dubois is officially listed at 6'4. The hockey DB 6'2 is a pre draft measurement I believe.

 

[BLONG7]

Where do you get that? What makes you 100% sure he won't sign in Boston if Winnipeg decides to trade him there? Plus can you believe he'd be good enough for Boston and not for us? lol

That's not an argument saying he will sign here and only here, that's wishful thinking. I'm not taking the chance of loosing a good local who can handle the jungle pressure.

We have TONS of prospects and picks (11 this year) which we will loose in the next couple of years because of the 50 contract limit. Protecting these assets at all cost will equal opportunity cost, there is only 6 spots in a top 6.

Edit: Also, good luck finding a better player who wants to play here at 8m and in this age range. Wishful thinking again, these are rarely available as you know. When was the last time we found one?

Suzuki..............who I would choose over PLD every day.

The story of PLD has been following since his draft day, when Bergevin tried to draft him......it's a story that wont die.....has he or will he change his mind? Who knows, we are building a good team, it just takes time...............grabbing PLD would accelerate that a bit...

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Dubois is officially listed at 6'4. The hockey DB 6'2 is a pre draft measurement I believe.

Its coming from the jets website, so its probably the most accurate.

 

[Destopcorner]

Suzuki..............who I would choose over PLD every day.

The story of PLD has been following since his draft day, when Bergevin tried to draft him......it's a story that wont die.....has he or will he change his mind? Who knows, we are building a good team, it just takes time...............grabbing PLD would accelerate that a bit...

What about Suzuki? We traded a 35 goal scorer for him... He didn't have the choice to come here. I love him also but fail to see what you want to say here. Not the same situation at all and those cornerstone centers are not often ( if ever) available...