Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[Habs Halifax]

I just created a thread on the main boards called this... Offers for Dubois on draft day or this summer from other teams than the Habs.

Lets try to stay out of that one. I want to see what other fan bases are willing to offer.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Across the league Montreal fans are perceived as idiots. LA Kings are a much better team with Danault since he got there. Kopitar looks like he is younger. The young players can take time to developp and Kings are in a PO spot since Danault is in the line-up. But hey, we have Gallagher here, he was the motor of that line, it was obvious and still is today. Yes we don't have anyone to shut down Matthews but we don't care. We hated Danault and always hate him. A C who shut down a 12 M center like Matthews have zero utility in PO time. A C like this is worth 3M maximum, maybe 3,5 M.

We got our moneys worth out of Danault. Had we extended him for the $6 million or whatever he was wanting to stay, he likely would’ve been hard to move because his offensive numbers would’ve been terrible had he stayed around during the end/after the Bergevin era. It worked out well for both sides.

 

[MXD]

Pass,would rather have Lawson Crouse at half the speculated cap hit. PLD,like Poutine and Celine Dion is way overrated.lol.

...What's the speculated caphit?

 

[rik schau]

...What's the speculated caphit?

I reckon around 7.5 or more

 

[Habs Halifax]

We got our moneys worth out of Danault. Had we extended him for the $6 million or whatever he was wanting to stay, he likely would’ve been hard to move because his offensive numbers would’ve been terrible had he stayed around during the end/after the Bergevin era. It worked out well for both sides.

Letting Danault walk was for the wrong reasons but it did help us with tanking and Bergevin loosing his job. So I call that circumstantial luck.

But Danault has trade value. If the Kings decided to trade him, lets not pretend other teams evaluate him on his points only. They guy can play and he's a darn good 200' center. GM's know this and he was a very important piece on our cup run (on top of Price, our big top 4D, and Suzuki/Caufield/Toffoli/Anderson/Lehkonen).

Imagine offering the Jets Danault and Beck for Dubois this summer? I think they take that and run.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Letting Danault walk was for the wrong reasons but it did help us with tanking and Bergevin loosing his job. So I call that circumstantial luck.

But Danault has trade value. If the Kings decided to trade him, lets not pretend other teams evaluate him on his points only. They guy can play and he's a darn good 200' center. GM's know this and he was a very important piece on our cup run (on top of Price, our big top 4D, and Suzuki/Caufield/Toffoli/Anderson/Lehkonen).

Imagine offering the Jets Danault and Beck for Dubois this summer? I think they take that and run.

I’m sure Danault would’ve demanded a NMC/NTC to stay so Winnipeg would’ve been out of the question for that kind of a trade. It was definitely circumstantial luck, but for as hard as I am on Bergevin, I give him a pass at the TDL of 2021 just because I genuinely enjoyed the out of nowhere cup run.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I’m sure Danault would’ve demanded a NMC/NTC to stay so Winnipeg would’ve been out of the question for that kind of a trade. It was definitely circumstantial luck, but for as hard as I am on Bergevin, I give him a pass at the TDL of 2021 just because I genuinely enjoyed the out of nowhere cup run.

Possible he would have had the Jets on his NTC yes. Anyways, I'm trying my best to get over the fact we let him walk. Turns out it cost Bergevin his job and we are in a better spot today. However, I don't like how our media and fans treated Danault. Not one bit. Some fans never learn and then complain that we can't convince players to sign with us.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I just created a thread on the main boards called this... Offers for Dubois on draft day or this summer from other teams than the Habs.

Lets try to stay out of that one. I want to see what other fan bases are willing to offer.

Replying to my own thread (I know )...

A mod on the main boards closed the thread cause he didn't like the replies he got from other fan bases towards Dubois. Says to go to the main Dubois trade thread and no other fan is offering anything for Dubois in that thread while some Jets fans say they want Dach.

It's almost like other fans outside of Montreal and Winnipeg knows what's up more than some fans in our own herd? Some of you are too nervous to be excited and I guess I understand that to some degree. My advice is this... The Past does not equal the Future.

 

[Scriptor]

I really think COL, CAR, BOS (depending on Bergeron / Krejci situation) as some of the teams being ready to pay the rental price for him, something close to what Horvat got (1st + good prospect + decent player), so it would depend if the Habs want to align on that offer or not, which may depend where the FLA pick would end up, if Anderson is in play, which prospect if also in play and WPG would want and if in the end it does not end up in an overpay.

There's a myriad of possible proposals, for sure. The point is, I believe, that MON, if it truly wants PLD, has plenty of reasonable assets to dangle that can make for a face-saving trade in WIN's case and a trade that doesn't sell the entire farm for Montreal that would cripple the rebuild process.

Let's understand that wanting Dubois doesn't mean you don't care about the draft. I just think that it is highly unlikely that MON will be back in the sweet spot of picking 1sty OA, or in the top-3 to top-5 again in the near future after this season, and less in the medium term and long term to follow, short of winning the lottery while it is still falling short of making the playoffs.

Since I don't believe in the lottery as a way of planning for the rebuild (ludicrous crossing of fingers and zero proactive mindset), I honestly think we should continue to try and add premium draft picks (1st and 2nd rounders) and use our best picks to draft a prospect and our other pick in the same round to try and trade for a player with talent and remaining upside.

If we have yet another pick in the round, I'd try to hit a home run with that pick and target a high reward pick, even if the risk is higher. We can afford that risk because we have an early round prospect, a targeted youngster via a trade using a pick from that same round, both more secure values before taking the risk with the third pick.

Basically, copy/paste what HuGo did last year (2022), hoping our early round selection will be more projectable in a better draft year (doesn't mean Slafkovsky can't become an excellent player, just that it's less guaranteed).

 

[Scriptor]

I dont think we see Dubois in MTL this coming season IMO. Mostly because yes, most of you are right in saying why would another team pay for someone they know wont re-sign, and so why would WPG give him to MTL for less than that...
Well teams play kinds ransom for players they know wont resign at the deadline every year. So if they keep him until then, they will get more than MTL will give.
I think the only way he would be sent to MTL this offseason is if he refused to play next year and I dont see that happening.

So question for MTL what would you give.

I wouldnt give FLA's 1st this year (or future 1sts). So that leaves our 2nds in play.
I also dont give alot of our top prospects. I keep Hutson, Roy, Farrell, Beck, Mailloux.
I only just THINK about Kidney/Mesar in a straight up trade after thinking about whether or not they are worth more in a deadline deal in the future knowing we'll get Dubois for free next year anyways.

They would want more included in a Engstrom/Heinemen/Kapanen/etc deal, and I dont see the value when you can wait a year.
Its picks and/or Struble, Mysak, Simoneau, Norlinder or no deal. For me. Just opinion, seems everyone is very far off in their opinions though.

Everyone is off in both directions in terms of their opinions, yes. The assets you are willing to trade, however, arenLt the least bit interesting to WIN, IMO. They amount to not much more than prospects every team already has in multitude in their system.

On the other spectrum, anyone offering the other extreme -- MON's own draft pick in the first round, Hutson, Mailloux, Roy, etc., would, IMHO, be clearly overpaying needlessly.

We clearly hold some of our prospects in higher esteem than we should and the reality is that we won't be able to keep them all in Montreal, anyhow.

I guess it's the fear of making the wrong choice as to whom to sacrifice that worries most fans, as the ceiling for young prospects is not easily projectable and that our development of prospects has not been award-winning in the recent past, to remain polite.

But, even then, Suzuki and Caufield, plus Dach's progression out of the abyss should be seen as positives in terms of the team's ability to develop prospects...

I'd give him 7.5 max little baby wants to play here so bad he needs to take a paycut, not down to mess up our internal cap by paying this dude 9.5 mill after forcing his way off 2 teams I'm good.

Your endorsement of this player is glowing. Use of endearment terms like "Little Baby" clearly establishes your love affair with him.

Seriously, I think he can be had for 7.5M with the proper structure of his contract if his numbers are closer to 8M, 8.25M than 9.5M.

I would not pay him 9.5M either.

 

[Team_Spirit]

Replying to my own thread (I know )...

A mod on the main boards closed the thread cause he didn't like the replies he got from other fan bases towards Dubois. Says to go to the main Dubois trade thread and no other fan is offering anything for Dubois in that thread while some Jets fans say they want Dach.

That's the main boards for ya

 

[Scriptor]

He's not going to get $9.5M AAV. If that is his plan, he's not coming to Montreal.

What makes you think he gets $9.5M when Hintz, Horvat, and Larkin did not? More taxes in Montreal? Well, the taxes in Montreal is not that much different than NY and Horvat got 8x $8.5M

Please drop this taxes BS everyone (not aimed particularly at you). It has been proven that, VS the majority of teams in the NHL, there is a way to structure a contract in Montreal that makes it more fiscally advantageous, or at least similarly advantageous than in those markets.

Taxes are not an issue for top-end players, as long as the team is willing to pony up most of the contract before every season starts as bonus money. This also shields the player VS a potential lockout when the CBA next expires.

Beyond, that, when taxes are out of the equation, as they should be when discussing high end players, the cost of living at least for teams in major urban centres, is ridiculously lower in Canada, even before factoring the conversion rate from American dollars to Canadian dollars.

 

[expy]

Imagine giving up anything valuable for a guy who's going to be UFA and has said he'll come here.
If he goes UFA and decides not to come here, big whoop. Move on.

 

[Scriptor]

Not to mention his physical profile makes every GM in the league drool.

Habs fans think Anderson should only be traded for multiple first round picks but PLD is worth nothing.

I think that's what was meant in that post -- that, once he I an UFA, most GMs in the league will be going, as they rub their hands together, contemplating Dubois, "Come here, my little Baby..."

Remember the comments made towards Danault when he said he wanted to play top 6. Some fans never change. He didn't even get credit for how he shut down other teams centers because that credit went to Gallagher.

If we acquire Dubois, fans who go on attack mode will be evaluating him by his points only.

Actually, I think they will be evaluating him shift by shift and latching on to every below elite shift as proof Dubois sucks.

 

[Naslundforever]

It feels like hockey will suck next year too.

Armia, Hoffman, Evans, Gallagher, Dvorak bring no entertainment and no tactical advantage + take up so much ice-time. Only reason to tune in recently has been to see Farrell.

It makes sense to tank hard again next year, keep all assets and sign Dubois ufa.

Fan in me wants to see Heinemann and Dach with Dubois for example. Anything but the 2/3 of a single decent line like they ice today that doesn’t even have a star on it. Fan in me would def make a trade.

 

[Habs Halifax]

That's the main boards for ya

I'm actually shocked that there are little to no offers for Dubois from other fans. Even with the circumstances. Jets fans are out of their minds and they have the nerve to say Habs fans are being unreasonable.

This is tracking Trouba situation all over again. Jets GM created this problem. Traded Laine/Ros thinking they could convince Dubois to stay. Shouldn't have interfered when Dubois asked out of Columbus and likely wanted to be traded to the Habs.

Jets fans are going to turn on Chevy. And I don't blame them. He created this problem.

 

[Scriptor]

In the scenario we crap out with the lottery and draft 7/8, I’d be happy with them taking Reinbacher so that our defense is absolutely stacked long term.

Then, I’d look to package the Florida first for PLD. Maybe add in Eddy + vets + a few middling assets, since we have leverage

A core of :

xx - Dach - Caufield
xx - PLD - Suzuki

Guhle - Mailloux
Hutson - Reinbacher

Would be a lot of fun.
I think if we end up with Fantilli that getting PLD is a dangerous move. Especially if we are giving up assets. I think finding the money to maintain all these forwards for a long window would become a real problem.

Either way works for me, even if I would argue that Reinbacher at 7th/8th is too early to pick him.

I'd likely pick Dvorsky, rather, with our own pick, at that point and try to move up to pick Reinbacher with the FLA pick if possible.

The key, after, would be to try and formulate a trade around Beck+ for Dubois, a trade that does not rely on paying up a mid first round pick. Is that possible, without gutting the Habs' cupboards too much beyond Beck, or amputating the Habs' NHL roster of one of its best elements?

 

[RC51]

well its clear PLD wants MTL as fast as possible. NO TEAM will give the jet anything good, knowing PLD wants out to go to MTL. SO the smartest thing the jets can do is let PLD go to the habs right now FOR FREE so the jets can save 6 million for next year.

 

[Scriptor]

I thought he was a shutdown centre but not a top 6 centre. He can centre a 2nd line but it's doubtful the team could win a Cup unless the 3rd line c also has 2c ability.

Danault is a 2nd line C if you adopt a certain philosophy, one where you pit your 2nd line against the opponents' best offensive players, looking for a positive net offensive production from the Danault line at even strength. However, to win games, apart form your first, offensive line, you will need to go with an offensive third line, not a checking line, as had been the norm for most teams in the NHL for so long.

You need a top-9 strategy with your 2nd line being a shutdown line, not as Montreal had it for lack of talent, where your shutdown line was your first line.

There are many lineup models that can be used, with line assignations - 1st, 2nd, 3rd -- becoming les important than they were in the past.

 

[Scriptor]

I had a brother in law who lived short periods in Winnipeg and he told us how it was in that city. I can't write it but it wasn't pleasant to hear and to imagine. Nobody with a brain would want to live there. The stats says Manitoba have more death by murders than the province of Quebec and Manitoba have 3 time less population. And I'm not talking about the every day social problems, like violence, drugs and alcohol addiction.

I don't think it is a problem for the players, pers se, who are in an isolated environment, but I seriously think that Dubois doesn't,t want to get tied down in Winnipeg as he intends to start a family.

Understandable, to me, even if that does not mean that Peggers are a bad people.

 

[Scriptor]

We hated danault just like we hated all our 1Cs outside of Saku and Suzuki. Just not good enough to be 1C not danault/DD/Plekanecs/gomez's fault.

Franchise C is what the fans always wanted and always will.


As for the baby comments on dubois I regret nothing! He's a bull on the ice that's true and my comments weren't an indictment on his play but on his CHaractere!

Franchise Cs is what the public wants, but that doesn't mean that, beyond your franchise C, you don't have a shutdown C, another offensive C or such.

Danault, as part of the picture, is not a problem. As the go-to Center on a team aspiring to be a Cup winning team, it would -ose a problem.

Fans look for saviours and then claim they no how to build a team, even as they snub all the other structural pieces needed to build a winner.

Dubois is not a filler piece for quality playoff depth like Lehkonen is/was. He's a structural piece to win battles in the top-6 matchups.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Dubois - Dach - Caufield
Slafkovsky - Suzuki - Mesar

Removing Caufield from Suzuki should be banned.So having Dach over Suzuki

 

[Scriptor]

I'm actually shocked that there are little to no offers for Dubois from other fans. Even with the circumstances. Jets fans are out of their minds and they have the nerve to say Habs fans are being unreasonable.

This is tracking Trouba situation all over again. Jets GM created this problem. Traded Laine/Ros thinking they could convince Dubois to stay. Shouldn't have interfered when Dubois asked out of Columbus and likely wanted to be traded to the Habs.

Jets fans are going to turn on Chevy. And I don't blame them. He created this problem.

Chevy's Day Off will come to an end soon if this team disintegrates and he doesn't pull off a miracle converting assets into other quality assets in the process.

Maybe the WIN GM has already tried to trade Scheifele, Ehlers and Wheeler, but has had lukewarm offers for these players, predicated on their negative reputations across the league?

 

[SlafySZN]

For the guys who think this was a good team that could have been salvaged here's the performance of the 6 years in between the gerat collapse where it was clear the team was carried by Price and the season before Weber and Price retired :

2015-2016 : 22nd (the great collapse after Price's injury)
2016-2017 : 7th
2017-2018 : 28th
2018-2019 : 14th
2019-2020 : 24th
2020-2021 : 18th (playing in the fake Canadian division)

Anyone who see a good team there is a lunatic. The 7th place finish an the cinderella run were both on the back of Price being Price again. In 2016-2027 he had a 923 saves % and a 2.23 GAA. In the 2020 cup run he had a 924 saves % and a 2.28 GAA. All this while playing in front of a pretty bad team. Prime Price would made our current lineup a playoffs bound team easily.

With both Price and Weber on the verge of retiring this team was heading toward a rebuild there should have been no doubt about that. Giving a 1st and a 2nd to acquire Dvorak was a dumb move. Giving that contract to Gallagher was even worse. Not selling Gallagher, Petry and Danault at the 2020 deadline when the team was 24th in the league was war criminal status.

Molson talked about it this week.

 

[WeThreeKings]