Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[HomaridII]

Fine. Then, I don't trade for him. IF the rumor is indeed true that he solely and only wants to come here, and knowing that we will suck next year as well...why in the world would we give them anything of real value for him? Why????

I don't think we will suck next year actually.

If we get a top 5 pick in, plus PLD, plus maybe trade for Carter Hart or Azkarov, we aren't that far away from playoffs. Even with all the injuries and all the rookie D and missing Matheson half the year etc.. we contended quite well most games.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Teams that are contender and that need an other top 6 player in there teams.

If Ben Chiarot return a 1st + 4th + prospect, imagine what a team can pay for PLD


Or might hit an home run package if no other top players are available like usual (except last year)

No reason to trade PLD for a 2nd + Dvorak

I think it's a bad move to have 24 TDL as the Jets plan.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Fine. Then, I don't trade for him. IF the rumor is indeed true that he solely and only wants to come here, and knowing that we will suck next year as well...why in the world would we give them anything of real value for him? Why????

People change their mind and getting him sooner helps planning as well. If there's a deal to be made that allows Montreal to trade from areas of strength and not give up too much, I say go for it. Hoarding picks and prospects has its own issues when you get to the contract limit or can't get guys to sign or stick around due to lack of opportunities, there's a needle that can be threaded.

That said, I'm definitely not against waiting and risking it though, but that's mostly because I think Dubois' next contract is incredibly risky. He's a big, young, center, and those guys always get paid, but he also doesn't produce a ton 5v5 and he seems to have this tendency to fade hard later in the season.

 

[Vachon23]

I think it's a bad move to have 24 TDL as the Jets plan.

If you don't have the package you want then yes

 

[BLONG7]

Fine. Then, I don't trade for him. IF the rumor is indeed true that he solely and only wants to come here, and knowing that we will suck next year as well...why in the world would we give them anything of real value for him? Why????

It would seem that the Jets have zero leverage.............this is in Hughes wheelhouse...
This offseason will be fun.

 

[Whitesnake]

A team that sees themself as a contender was able to add Tarasenko AND Kane at the TDL this year. Winnipeg doesn’t need to deal Dubois this summer.

And we don't need to sign him either. Reason why you don't give nothing of real value in a trade.

 

[Vachon23]

But how much was Chiarot paid when they did that? When Calgary needed money, they HAD to give up Monahan and a 1st to sign their players. Who will do that for 1 year of Dubois?

WIN can take contract back or retain 50 %, they are many solutions

 

[BLONG7]

People change their mind and getting him sooner helps planning as well. If there's a deal to be made that allows Montreal to trade from areas of strength and not give up too much, I say go for it. Hoarding picks and prospects has its own issues when you get to the contract limit or can't get guys to sign or stick around due to lack of opportunities, there's a needle that can be threaded.

That said, I'm definitely not against waiting and risking it though, but that's mostly because I think Dubois' next contract is incredibly risky. He's a big, young, center, and those guys always get paid, but he also doesn't produce a ton 5v5 and he seems to have this tendency to fade hard later in the season.

Hughes said as much last week, or the week before...................if there is something that makes sense, they will jump at the chance to add a young piece to the core..............he was no doubt thinking Dubois.

 

[Habs 4 Life]

Fell asleep and didn't end up watching the 2nd and 3rd period of the Jets game, my God they're horrible. Not just PLD, you have to think they're will be a major shakeup to that roster this summer. I don't see Scheifele extending or wanting to extend there

 

[Habs Halifax]

If you don't have the package you want then yes

Habs can offer Beck, our early 2nd, and a prospect like Engstrom or Tuch and it's better or equal to what they get offered at the 24 TDL.

Beck as a 33rd pick has increased his value in his draft+1. He's worth 20-32 range 1st now. That's a better offer than a late 1st bud.

I wouldn't even push a NHL contract the other way. We don't need to. If they ask for Dvorak because they rather not overpay for a center like him in UFA this summer, sure. If not, we can keep Dvorak and our cap space is not affected. Same with Hoffman and Armia. I do think Eddy gets traded and maybe he goes in the Dubois package. If not, he's not that hard to move if we are willing to take little back.

Tell me how often a prospect like Beck and a early 2nd rounder is traded for a rental? Then with a prospect like Engstrom on top? What contender can offer a early 2nd rounder on top of a fringe grade A prospect trending very well? None!

 

[Whitesnake]

A team that sees themself as a contender was able to add Tarasenko AND Kane at the TDL this year. Winnipeg doesn’t need to deal Dubois this summer.

But true, if they are wise, they should resign him 1 year, eat some salary at the next deadline and try to go a Tarasenko/Kane deal.

My trade was as far as WE are concerned. And as far as THEY are concerned, they could have pass it to say that they are not the Coyotes, they are not just taking salary without players, in Dvorak they get a competent C. In Armia, could be a competent 3rd liner with a fresh start. And a 35th-40th overall pick.

 

[sampollock]

Peg holds all the cards. They can choose to lose PLD for nothing in the 2024 offseason, they can choose to trade him next TDL, they can choose to shop him in the 2023 offseason.

The Habs own zero cards actually. It's not a bad thing, it's just how the dynamics work in this case. What happens really depends on a multitude of questions WPG have to ask themselves after this coming playoffs. The Habs won't be max-capped and can absorb PLD at any time.

that is all true, but if he sat out and not reported that could happen. then the media circus around WPG would not be worth the time. I guess it comes down to how much PLD wants out

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

But true, if they are wise, they should resign him 1 year, eat some salary at the next deadline and try to go a Tarasenko/Kane deal.

My trade was as far as WE are concerned. And as far as THEY are concerned, they could have pass it to say that they are not the Coyotes, they are not just taking salary without players, in Dvorak they get a competent C. In Armia, could be a competent 3rd liner with a fresh start. And a 35th-40th overall pick.

Please do not post this on the main board...

 

[ReHabs]

Dubois trade becomes slightly more possible if WPG miss the playoffs this year and decide to retool. It eliminates the 'WPG chooses to go for it one more time' possibility. Unfortunately, it's obvious that WPG are better off holding onto Dubois with a simple QO and then dealing him at the next trade deadline for a big return.

Unless there are behind-the-scenes aspects we're not privy, the cards remain in WPG's hands.

 

[Scriptor]

His market value via comparatives seems to be around 8x8.

Would be an awesome fit with Suzuki and Caufield imo.

Plus, a rich team like MON can structure the contract, both front-loaded and bonus-laden to the maximum and allow Dubois to invest portions of found money (front-load overpayment in earlier years) after maximum tax reduction (bonuses exploiting Quebec and Canadian tax laws) in order too raise the total payout by the end of Year Eight, making an 8M a year contract, conservatively, ring in as an 8.5M contract. An 8.5M contract could conservatively ring in as a 9M contract.

I can see Dubois signing for 8.5M in Montreal before New Jersey, under the terms that Jack Hughes signed for (check out the little front loading and the barely 2M in bonuses only in the first year) if it's only a question of money.

Montreal can give as much as 11.25, 11.25, 11.25, 11.25, 5.75, 5.75, 5.75, 5.75 on a front-loaded contract that gives a total of 68M over 8 years, with most of the total handed out in bonus money that is paid in the summer before each season starts and isn't subject to lockouts.

If, from Dubois' own statements, it's not just about money, let's hope that helping build a winner with hi childhood and getting more net money trumps getting less net money and playing for a team that is closer to winning a Cup in New Jersey, for example?

For under 4M, on a possible 72Mish total, over eight years, it is understandable that family life and other considerations could come into play over anything else.

It's not like you're out on poor street if you take the 68M contract over the 72M to be in the place you want to be...

If Dubois wants to be in Montreal, that's what will trump anything else, without implying he will give a huge discount to Montreal because he wants to play there.

 

[Jack Skellington]

I can't comprehend why people are so keen on trading big assets for Dubois in a year where we will probably be very bad again anyways. He's a good player but he's not anything exceptional and he has shown very serious character flaws. He's a player that all else being equal, I wouldn't be going crazy targeting him in particular. The entire thing with him is that he apparently really wants to play here, and if that's true, we can sign him for free after next season which lines up perfectly with our rebuild. It would be nothing more than great asset management.

If people are worried he might get traded as a rental and then sign a long term deal or whatever.. who cares? Evidently he didnt want to play here bad enough and he no longer holds this special spot as a good player with a home town bias. He would just be another expensive player with questionable character in which case we should avoid him anyways and target something better. PLD to Montreal is ONLY a thing because he has made it one.. so the ball is in his court.

 

[Scriptor]

Jets lost last night, 3-0 to the Sharks and are barely hanging on to a playoff spot.

Winnipeg 75 GP 85 points
Calgary 75 GP 83 Points
Nashville 73 GP 82 points.

Basically, the way the Jets are going there's going to be some significant changes as suggested by Marek and Friedman.

Unless they squeak in and go on a run, I would say the probability of PLD being dealt this off season is high

WIN is currently the team in a playoff position, with another playoff spot to PIT right behind them and two teams outside the playoffs within close range.

With 7 or so games left, odds are WIN keeps that spot, unless they go on a protracted losing streak. .500 hockey should allow them to squeak in, unless two teams chasing go on winning streaks at the same time.

But, if they get summarily eliminated in the first round, it will be as bad as not making the playoffs, IMO.

 

[Jack Skellington]

PLD retained salary as a rental would be a massive haul. 2 firsts+2nd or a 1st and an A level prospect. Look at what guys like Chiarot and Giroux got as pure rentals, PLD would be even more. Winnipeg won't trade him to us for pennies on the dollar.

 

[V13]

I'm very happy that Dubois will become a Habs player sooner than later. This top 6 will be so much fun to watch with Suzuki, Dach, Slafkovsky, Caufield and Dubois. Great time to be a Habs fan.

You forgot Bedard

 

[Habs 4 Life]

Dubois trade becomes slightly more possible if WPG miss the playoffs this year and decide to retool. It eliminates the 'WPG chooses to go for it one more time' possibility. Unfortunately, it's obvious that WPG are better off holding onto Dubois with a simple QO and then dealing him at the next trade deadline for a big return.

Unless there are behind-the-scenes aspects we're not privy, the cards remain in WPG's hands.

It's going to be a really interesting fight between the Jets and Flames, looking at the schedules the Flames should have the advantage, but at this time of the year you never know with the weaker teams..

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

WIN is currently the team in a playoff position, with another playoff spot to PIT right behind them and two teams outside the playoffs within close range.

With 7 or so games left, odds are WIN keeps that spot, unless they go on a protracted losing streak. .500 hockey should allow them to squeak in, unless two teams chasing go on winning streaks at the same time.

But, if they get summarily eliminated in the first round, it will be as bad as not making the playoffs, IMO.

They were first in their division. They've dropped quite a bit.

Not sure what the Penguins have to do with it, but they might be looking to make a big shake up, too

 

[Playmaker09]

The bolded sentence is what I and many others disagree with.

The reason to trade for him and extend him now is to avoid circumstances shifting and then finding out he is not available in 15 months.

If he's going to extend for another team before July 2024 then he likely never really cared about signing with the Habs in the first place and was only using us for leverage as so many others have done before.
If that's who he is, you're not getting PLD for anything other than top dollar by trading for him, which I have no interest in doing.

If instead he's willing to agree to an extension at below market value now to play for the Habs, he will still do so next year.
I've seen some claim he'll leave money on the table now to alleviate any potential injury concerns, but name me another young player who has done that? It's wishful thinking. They all bet on themselves and there will still be teams lining up for him regardless.

Unless PLD is bipolar, both those scenarios shouldn't exist within the same person at the same time.
If we find out that he's willing to take more as a UFA in 2024 rather than join the Habs at a reasonable amount, then all it means is he was never sincere about wanting to come to the here in the first place. He wants to have his cake and eat it too. He'd be happy to join the Habs if and only if they also have the best offer on the table.

 

[Jaynki]

Fine. Then, I don't trade for him. IF the rumor is indeed true that he solely and only wants to come here, and knowing that we will suck next year as well...why in the world would we give them anything of real value for him? Why????

Because Pierre-Luc Dubois wants to come here and he is a very good player, local talent, who will add size and skill to our top six. The perfect complement, in my humble opinion, to Suzuki and Caufield. We agree he will improve our team?

Giving anything of value for Dubois would be giving Dach, Caufield, Slaf, Suzuki, Guhle etc. (Which would be his price in normal circumstances.)

Now, we should give valuable pieces but not top tier pieces to ensure we make him come here right now and to make sure we pay the Jets a fair compensation. That is how a world class organisation would act.

I am sure PLD clan would be very happy to play here next season and contract negotiations would be easy.

Not trading for PLD because we want to hold on the 14th overall or a prospect like Owen Beck is an exponential Marc Bergevin move.

I repeat, a world class, respected organisation would make a fair offer to WPG and would bring his player ASAP.

Honestly, giving the offer sheet package for PLD (FLA 1st + 3rd rounder) is very fair for every party involved considering the scenarios.

 

[salbutera]

It's going to be a really interesting fight between the Jets and Flames, looking at the schedules the Flames should have the advantage, but at this time of the year you never know with the weaker teams..

Don’t forget Preds, they’ve got 2GP in hand, and are poised to make a push - their remaining games are against playoff teams who will be resting players & they play both Wpg and Cgy

 

[Scriptor]

Whether he wanted to play here or not is irrelevant. It’s the behaviour I was criticizing. He’s a controlled asset and the NHL implemented that system for a reason.

I agree and I disagree with the assessment. As far as I'm concerned, the system is meant to protect the viability of the League and allow teams to control their assets at least long enough to turn a benefit from their investments into the players' development. That, as a basis, needs to remain solid.

Otherwise, players would engineer being dealt to the Rangers from the day they were drafted.

But, the team also owes the asset/player an environment that os not toxic as a work place, like any other enterprise. Tortorella's treatment of Dubois, as far as I am concerned was toxic, as it has been for some other players since Torts was a head coach in the NHL. Before that, I have no clue.

So, in so far as Dubois' demand to be traded from Columbus wasn't some preconceived means of being traded to a specific team, but rather a response to the toxic work environment under Tortorella, I have ZERO problem with Dubois' trade request.

I don't feel that it tries to subjugate the NHL system because of personal whimsy.

Regarding what transpired in WIN, I honestly feel that the GM mishandled the situation from the start and I have little empathy for management there and the situation of Dubois refusing to sign long term in Winnipeg.

Dubois has been nothing from professional in Winnipeg, even if he does not want to stick around long term. he has n to made it more difficult for the team to trade him because he signed a one-year deal and because he has not been using the media to negotiate his way out of town.