Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[ReHabs]

We're talking about an Offer Sheet 1st, which is a 2024 1st, and is unprotected!

PLD is a good top 6 forward he is not great. He hasn't shown that he has any kind of positive impact on a team, as anything more than a complementary player, and he goes through large stretches of invisible, unmotivated play.

I don't think getting PLD means we're suddenly out of the bottom 10 next year. All we need is for Montembeault to be slightly worse than this year next year, or get injured, and have Allen go through more tank-Allen games, and suddenly that pick is a lottery pick.

You're essentially saying, hey, if Winnipeg won't trade with us, we'll show them, we'll offer sheet him, and maybe give them the 1st OA in 2024!

You'll leave us with no 2024 1st, a late Colorado 2nd, no 3rd.

That is not less than Dvorak. Dvorak's 1st was 29th overall, and a 2nd probably in the 33-45 range. Not great, but likely not terrible either. We also ended up with 2 other earlier 1sts in the same draft.

The 14th OA pick by itself is worth more than 29th+2nd rounder.

The 14th OA pick is also already far more than what SJS got for Meier, who is an equivalent player to PLD.

He’s a (on pace for) 70pt player, of course he moves the needle. This team of ours often has zero 70pt players! If I’m not mistaken our last 70pt player was Max Domi. He would be — and is, in fact — an impact player.

He was drafted high and then traded for a big time valuable player in Laine and his profile remains highly coveted across the league. It’s for this reason I find it strange a begger-team’s fanbase like the Habs, one that has degraded itself to cheering for losses, would turn its nose up at PLD available for a paltry sum.

At the time of the Dvorak trade there was no promise of the pick sent over’s position, it was a first and second round pick. I think it’s fair enough to stratify their values (eg 14OA vs 27OA) but after a certain point the Habs have to bet on themselves. They did so with the Dach trade, and I reckon Hughes and Gorton aren’t the type to clutch onto first round picks with an icy grip like Bergevin did.

The undeniable fact is that impact players are worth more than lower first round picks (and later draft picks of course).

You could not rate PLD, that’s fair enough. I’d love Fiala, or Meier, or PLD, or any sort of youngish player who can contribute to team success for multiple years to come.

Anywho it’s just as likely so many Habs fans end up achieving their wish that PLD never ends up on the Habs (for the price, whatever it would be, is too high) and it’s just as likely the Habs continue oscillating between having one and zero 70pt players like we have done for years now.

Without a superstar like Carey Price I don’t think we will be able to overcome a bad depth and skill on offence no matter what.

There is no promise of success when it comes to impact NHL players — we’ve often seen our drafts celebrated and prospect pools celebrated and praised and have still not had a single 70pt player come through from our draft picks. My personal conviction is that an unprotected 1st+3rd is a fair price for PLD because of the gamble factor with the protection. FLA overpaid for Chiarot as a rental but this guy isn’t Chairot.

 

[BaseballCoach]

You said the only way we trade for PLD is with an extension in place.
If you already know that PLD will extend for $7.5 million/year, then just wait and sign him for that in 2024.
If PLD is the type to take that offer to play in his hometown now, he will do so next year.
To change his mind halfway through the year would be completely inconsistent with the premise that he would agree to a reasonable sign-and-trade. If he's going to chase money he'll do it regardless, and if he wants to come home he'll do it regardless.

I don't understand how some of you argue this from both sides. "He'll agree to a sign-and-trade for under $8 million now, but if we wait he'll chase $10 million in UFA" is a position that makes little sense. His desire to play for the Habs is well documented and he either prioritizes getting top dollar over that or he doesn't, just wait a year and you'll find out which it is.

The only reason for a team in our position to expedite this and trade for him now would be to secure his services for next year. This is useless to us as we suck and will not be competing for a playoff spot next year. Adding PLD changes nothing.

If he wanted to go to Boston and only Boston, I could see them trading for him early to get him for next year where they will actually have a use for him in their pursuit of the cup. They'd probably be trading first round picks for rentals anyway, so why not now.

But this is not the position we find ourselves in at all.

The bolded sentence is what I and many others disagree with.

The reason to trade for him and extend him now is to avoid circumstances shifting and then finding out he is not available in 15 months.

 

[le_sean]

True, but if the Habs are going to pay a lot for a goalie and try to keep him, it would likely be better to go for Hart, as he's in the age range of the core the Habs are trying to build, or at least closer than Hellebuyck.

I would imagine Hellebuyck would want to test free agency and cash regardless where he gets dealt. Might be able to circle back to him then.

Yeah but Hellebuyck >>> Hart. One year left on his deal, he will likely test free agency but he will likely be cheap because of it.

 

[BaseballCoach]

He’s a (on pace for) 70pt player, of course he moves the needle. This team of ours often has zero 70pt players! If I’m not mistaken our last 70pt player was Max Domi. He would be — and is, in fact — an impact player.

He was drafted high and then traded for a big time valuable player in Laine and his profile remains highly coveted across the league. It’s for this reason I find it strange a begger-team’s fanbase like the Habs, one that has degraded itself to cheering for losses, would turn its nose up at PLD available for a paltry sum.

At the time of the Dvorak trade there was no promise of the pick sent over’s position, it was a first and second round pick. I think it’s fair enough to stratify their values (eg 14OA vs 27OA) but after a certain point the Habs have to bet on themselves. They did so with the Dach trade, and I reckon Hughes and Gorton aren’t the type to clutch onto first round picks with an icy grip like Bergevin did.

The undeniable fact is that impact players are worth more than lower first round picks (and later draft picks of course).

You could not rate PLD, that’s fair enough. I’d love Fiala, or Meier, or PLD, or any sort of youngish player who can contribute to team success for multiple years to come.

Anywho it’s just as likely so many Habs fans end up achieving their wish that PLD never ends up on the Habs (for the price, whatever it would be, is too high) and it’s just as likely the Habs continue oscillating between having one and zero 70pt players like we have done for years now.

Without a superstar like Carey Price I don’t think we will be able to overcome a bad depth and skill on offence no matter what.

There is no promise of success when it comes to impact NHL players — we’ve often seen our drafts celebrated and prospect pools celebrated and praised and have still not had a single 70pt player come through from our draft picks. My personal conviction is that an unprotected 1st+3rd is a fair price for PLD because of the gamble factor with the protection. FLA overpaid for Chiarot as a rental but this guy isn’t Chairot.

We can do the offer sheet, give up our 2024 1st, and get it back, plus a bit more, by trading Anderson.

Unless someone brings up an argument Ihad not thought of, the offer sheet idea is strong. PLD will obviously have signed it, mentally committing to us.

If Winnipeg matches, he cannot be traded at the TDL to anyone else, and the minute he is free it is more likely that he comes to us.

 

[Habs Halifax]

One thing I noticed is what other fans are offering for Dubois on the main boards. Not like fans dictate the truth but I can't help but notice that there is little to no offers for Dubois from other teams.

I think most know what's up. Dubois is only open to sign/trade with the Habs. Any fan saying they will just keep him and trade him at the TDL is reaching. This is the Jets last option and no way they want to head into next season with a distraction all season long.

Anybody want to post what they have seen for the best Dubois trade offer from any other team?

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Yeah but Hellebuyck >>> Hart. One year left on his deal, he will likely test free agency but he will likely be cheap because of it.

I can't argue Helley is better than Hart.

I know I and others don't really trust him, but Kypreos is also saying PLD to Habs is "blazing" on his segment with Tim from Tim and Friends. He did say that in January and still says that.

The show is Smoke,(nothing really), fire (there's something), or shut your pie hole.

Blazing speaks for itself.

 

[Michoulicious]

One thing I noticed is what other fans are offering for Dubois on the main boards. Not like fans dictate the truth but I can't help but notice that there is little to no offers for Dubois from other teams.

I think most know what's up. Dubois is only open to sign/trade with the Habs. Any fan saying they will just keep him and trade him at the TDL is reaching. This is the Jets last option and no way they want to head into next season with a distraction all season long.

Anybody want to post what they have seen for the best Dubois trade offer from any other team?

Dunno, but as a rental he should fetch a late 1st + prospect at the deadline at least.

Montreal do not need him for a 1 year rental and our 1st rounders are way too high to trade.

Bad fit. Might just wait for summer of 2024 when he's UFA. No rush.

 

[Whitesnake]

There is not 1 scenario IF WE DEAL HIM, that a guy like Armia isn't part of a deal. If you give picks and prospects for a guy you would have had for free, IT MEANS that Winnipeg HAS to pick up players we don't want as well. Armia in there. Pitlick. And even include Dvorak. And build a bigger deal.

Dubois + Zhilkin for 2nd round 2024, Armia, Pitlick and Dvorak. They get SO much more than NOTHING....get a good prospect too. We get rid of money. We get the evident best player of the deal by far. And a really good prospect. They acquire a very very good pick and 3 players that could play in their lineup right away. Maybe I'm even too generous and pass Dvorak for something else in a different deal.....I know.

If you can't get that, you wait.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Dunno, but as a rental he should fetch a late 1st + prospect at the deadline at least.

Montreal do not need him for a 1 year rental and our 1st rounders are way too high to trade.

Bad fit. Might just wait for summer of 2024 when he's UFA. No rush.

I think he returns less than Horvat if he is traded at the 25 TDL. Teams do trade for rentals but when they do, they want a good chance at extending them. Panthers trading for Chiarot and Giroux and knowing they had low chance at extending them is rare. Islanders trading a 1st when they were not in a playoff spot is also rare.

I doubt the Jets like the keep him and trade him at the 24 TDL plan.

Habs have a lot we can offer for Dubois but the trade package needs to be from a position of strength and the contract needs to be around Suzuki. I think we can get Dubois by offering Beck, Habs 2nd, and a prospect like Engstrom. That would be an example of trading from a position of strength and using our leverage cause Dubois don't want to do sign/trade with anybody else.

With or without Dubois next year, we are looking at a 10-15 range pick. We are going to gradully move up. Without the injuries this season, we could very well be picking 8-12 range.

We don't have to trade any of our 1st rounders. Panthers 1st is a maybe with me .

 

[KevSkillz4]

I'm very happy that Dubois will become a Habs player sooner than later. This top 6 will be so much fun to watch with Suzuki, Dach, Slafkovsky, Caufield and Dubois. Great time to be a Habs fan.

 

[PavelBrendl]

There is not 1 scenario IF WE DEAL HIM, that a guy like Armia isn't part of a deal. If you give picks and prospects for a guy you would have had for free, IT MEANS that Winnipeg HAS to pick up players we don't want as well. Armia in there. Pitlick. And even include Dvorak. And build a bigger deal.

Dubois + Zhilkin for 2nd round 2024, Armia, Pitlick and Dvorak. They get SO much more than NOTHING....get a good prospect too. We get rid of money. We get the evident best player of the deal by far. And a really good prospect. They acquire a very very good pick and 3 players that could play in their lineup right away. Maybe I'm even too generous and pass Dvorak for something else in a different deal.....I know.

If you can't get that, you wait.

That’s terrible for Winnipeg. Nobody wants Armia’s contract, Pitlick is waiver fodder and Dvorak is the most boring player in the NHL. Why on earth would they give up their 4th best scorer and a decent prospect for a 2nd and a bunch of negative value?

 

[Vachon23]

think he returns less than Horvat if he is traded at the 25 TDL. Teams do trade for rentals but when they do, they want a good chance at extending them. Panthers trading for Chiarot and Giroux and knowing they had low chance at extending them is rare. Islanders trading a 1st when they were not in a playoff spot is also rare.

This year was just not a selling market.. to much good players available

In a normal year, Horvat would have return way much (They still give a top 20 pick + a good prospect + 25 yrs NHL player)

 

[Whitesnake]

That’s terrible for Winnipeg. Nobody wants Armia’s contract, Pitlick is waiver fodder and Dvorak is the most boring player in the NHL. Why on earth would they give up their 4th best scorer and a decent prospect for a 2nd and a bunch of negative value?

You do know that Dubois is leaving right? For nothing right? And that the only reason why we'd trade for him while it seems that the guy is coming anyway, it has to count for us. So, I repeat. They get 3 players that could play. Not on ultra long contracts anyway. And frankly, Dvorak would do better than Lowry behind Scheifele.

It's the ONLY deal possible than losing a 4th best scorer for nothing. Why in the world would we give a 1st and Mesar to get a guy 1 year in advance? And by the way, we still suck next year. So the 2nd is around 35-40.

 

[Vachon23]

You do know that Dubois is leaving right? For nothing right? And that the only reason why we'd trade for him while it seems that the guy is coming anyway, it has to count for us. So, I repeat. They get 3 players that could play. Not on ultra long contracts anyway. And frankly, Dvorak would do better than Lowry behind Scheifele.

It's the ONLY deal possible than losing a 4th best scorer for nothing. Why in the world would we give a 1st and Mesar to get a guy 1 year in advance? And by the way, we still suck next year. So the 2nd is around 35-40.

You know that they are 30 others teams in The NHL right ? Many of them will be interested in him even if he's a rental. WPG will get a better return elsewhere

 

[HomaridII]

You know that they are 30 others teams in The NHL right ? Many of them will be interested in him even if he's a rental. WPG will get a better return elsewhere

There is no rental if we offersheet as the article says. And we should be subtly hinting at it to Winnipeg.

 

[Vachon23]

There is no rental if we offersheet as the article says. And we should be subtly hinting at it to Winnipeg.

Offersheet means that you give MTL 1st round pick without any protection

Are you really ready to do that ?

 

[Captain Mountain]

It’s leverage. One other card in HuGo’s hand.

Leverage is used to drive the price down. And Offersheet with Montreal's unprotected 2024 1st at worst doesn't affect the price at all and hands leverage to Dubois, not Hughes.

You do know that Dubois is leaving right? For nothing right? And that the only reason why we'd trade for him while it seems that the guy is coming anyway, it has to count for us. So, I repeat. They get 3 players that could play. Not on ultra long contracts anyway. And frankly, Dvorak would do better than Lowry behind Scheifele.

It's the ONLY deal possible than losing a 4th best scorer for nothing. Why in the world would we give a 1st and Mesar to get a guy 1 year in advance? And by the way, we still suck next year. So the 2nd is around 35-40.

Even if we ignore some of the ridiculous asks from Jets fans for Dubois, Montreal would have to offer at least as much as what Dubois would cost as a pure rental (something like a late 1st or early 2nd and a prospect plus something else). Maybe the Jets would see value in Dvorak, but even if they did the offer would have to be Montreal 2023 2nd, Dvorak and Kidney. I don't think the Jets would do that, but 2nd round 2024, Armia, Pitlick and Dvorak gets your number blocked.

 

[HomaridII]

Offersheet means that you give MTL 1st round pick without any protection

Are you really ready to do that ?

Its the 2024 first. So yes. I am.

 

[Whitesnake]

You know that they are 30 others teams in The NHL right ? Many of them will be interested in him even if he's a rental. WPG will get a better return elsewhere

At what cost? What will be Dubois's salary for 1 year? Who has the room? Who will empty their prospect pool for 1 year of Dubois if they have no chance to go far anyway? And who has a chance to go far but have the salary room for 1 year of him?

 

[PavelBrendl]

You do know that Dubois is leaving right? For nothing right? And that the only reason why we'd trade for him while it seems that the guy is coming anyway, it has to count for us. So, I repeat. They get 3 players that could play. Not on ultra long contracts anyway. And frankly, Dvorak would do better than Lowry behind Scheifele.

It's the ONLY deal possible than losing a 4th best scorer for nothing. Why in the world would we give a 1st and Mesar to get a guy 1 year in advance? And by the way, we still suck next year. So the 2nd is around 35-40.

Teams pay up big for rentals all the time. I don’t agree with it, but it’s the way it is.

If they’re getting something in return, I assure you they don’t want white elephants like Armia and to a lesser degree, Dvorak.

I understand the point of view that he’s leaving anyway. But they don’t want to take on negative value cuz it’s “something” in return.

 

[Habs Halifax]

This year was just not a selling market.. to much good players available

In a normal year, Horvat would have return way much (They still give a top 20 pick + a good prospect + 25 yrs NHL player)

Nope. I am a firm believer that buyers at a TDL want the chance to extend the player beyond the rental period. There are always exceptions but it's not the general rule.

If the Jets decide to wait till 24 TDL, that is risky. Might be a late 1st and B prospect. Islanders trading their 1st when they were not in the playoffs is not something I would have as a TDL strategy

 

[Whitesnake]

Even if we ignore some of the ridiculous asks from Jets fans for Dubois, Montreal would have to offer at least as much as what Dubois would cost as a pure rental (something like a late 1st or early 2nd and C-D level prospect). Maybe the Jets would see value in Dvorak, but even if they did the offer would have to be Montreal 2023 2nd, Dvorak and Kidney. I don't think the Jets would do that, but 2nd round 2024, Armia, Pitlick and Dvorak gets your number blocked.

Fine. Then, I don't trade for him. IF the rumor is indeed true that he solely and only wants to come here, and knowing that we will suck next year as well...why in the world would we give them anything of real value for him? Why????

 

[PavelBrendl]

At what cost? What will be Dubois's salary for 1 year? Who has the room? Who will empty their prospect pool for 1 year of Dubois if they have no chance to go far anyway? And who has a chance to go far but have the salary room for 1 year of him?

A team that sees themself as a contender was able to add Tarasenko AND Kane at the TDL this year. Winnipeg doesn’t need to deal Dubois this summer.

 

[Vachon23]

At what cost? What will be Dubois's salary for 1 year? Who has the room? Who will empty their prospect pool for 1 year of Dubois if they have no chance to go far anyway? And who has a chance to go far but have the salary room for 1 year of him?

Teams that are contender and that need an other top 6 player in there teams.

If Ben Chiarot return a 1st + 4th + prospect, imagine what a team can pay for PLD

Nope. I am a firm believer that buyers at a TDL want the chance to extend the player beyond the rental period. There are always exceptions but it's not the general rule.

If the Jets decide to wait till 24 TDL, that is risky. Might be a late 1st and B prospect. Islanders trading their 1st when they were not in the playoffs is not something I would have as a TDL strategy

Or might hit an home run package if no other top players are available like usual (except last year)

No reason to trade PLD for a 2nd + Dvorak

 

[Whitesnake]

Teams that are contender and that need an other top 6 player in there teams.

If Ben Chiarot return a 1st + 4th + prospect, imagine what a team can pay for PLD


Or might hit an home run package if no other top players are available like usual (except last year)

No reason to trade PLD for a 2nd + Dvorak

But how much was Chiarot paid when they did that? When Calgary needed money, they HAD to give up Monahan and a 1st to sign their players. Who will do that for 1 year of Dubois?