Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

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“Would you rather that the Habs trade for Dubois or instead wait and try to sign him when he becomes


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1) Injury to Sean Monahan (who never really recovered), essentially making the Habs a one-line team and focusing all the opponents' defensive attention on Suzuki and his line.

2) Season ending surgery to Cole Caufield that robbed him of his best trigger man.

3) The injury to Dach that removed what was left of a semblance of higher end skill to fill out the top-six. Thankfully, down the stretch, RHP eventually stepped up to add solid positioning, all out effort and some offensive skill.

3) The lack of overall depth to replace fallen soldiers putting many players in the wrong chairs.

4) St-Louis, for lack of talented depth, over exploiting Suzuki with Twenty-Three minutes a night.

These are four solid reasons, I think, why Suzuki slowed down for a stretch of the season nearer to its end.

A 5th may be that Nick steps up when the pressure is on and in big games. But I felt he wasn't as into the meaningless games once it became apparent the season was lost. Though it looks like he's recently gotten used to the reality and is playing better - though his recent upsurge may be due to playing with RHP as you say.
 
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A 5th may be that Nick steps up when the pressure is on and in big games. But I felt he wasn't as in to the meaningless games once it became ccx apparent the season was lost. Though it looks like he's recently gotten used to the reality and is playing better - though his recent upsurge may be due to playing with RHP as you say.
I really like Suzuki because, as you say, he's a gamer. Plays better when the stakes are higher. Good leader to have on the ice and why he was the right choice for team Captain.
 
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I really like Suzuki because, as you say, he's a gamer. Plays better when the stakes are higher. Good leader to have on the ice and why he was the right choice for team Captain.
Yeah he seems automatic in the playoffs. Smart player, doesn't get rattled. I can imagine he'll put up more points and grow even more when he plays off better players.
 
Frankly, this attitude is what has led us into decades of mediocrity.

Dubois is just another meaningless stopgaps to get us into the playoffs in eighth place, like Plekanec, Koivu, Suzuki, et el. Fine players, but two tiers below the plethora of superstars that a team needs to actually compete for a Stanley cup.

A core of 8-9 million dollar 60 point players (which is the caliber of Dubois, at his core, having hit his prime at 24) will never let you have a sniff of the Stanley cup. Drafting a contingent of stuperstars is the only way to win a cup, rather than just floundering year after year.

We wasted this one by "winning" at the outset due to foolish offseason moves, and last year by selecting the wrong player in an already weak draft.

Stockpiling picks and working towards meaningful rebuilds, rather than overpaying players like Dubois and Suzuki by five million dollars a piece, is the only way to win.

That's not gambling on magic beans.

That's how you have any chance of building winning teams.

I for one look forward to wasting another decade with players like PLD clogging up the top lines, putting up 50-60 points, and squeaking into the playoffs for first round exits.

Genius GMing.
Don't fear finishing 8th in the conference, as long as the trend is upwards and not downwards or sideways.

If we traded Anderson for a first, then flipped the first to Winnipeg, plus Harris and Mesar, for Dubois, and drafted Smith this summer, for example, this could be our 2023-24 cap situation:

7.9 Suzuki
7.9 Caufield
1.1 RHP

3.4 Dach
2.9 Gurianov
7.9 Dubois

4.5 Dvorak
0.9 Ylonen
1.0 Slafkovsky

1.7 Evans
6.5 Gallagher
0.9 Farrell

1.0 Pezzetta (bottom 6 injury replacement)
4.5 Hoffman (top 9 injury replacement)

2.3 Armia (buried)

4.9 Matheson
3.5 Savard
3.5 Edmundson
0.9 Guhle
0.9 Xhekaj
0.9 Barron

0.8 Kovacevic

1.1 Monty
3.9 Allen

74.8 Total

In 2024-25, these changes occur:
- we save $10.9M on Gurianov, Hoffman and Edmundson (traded at TDL for picks or expired)
- we save $11.9M by trading Dvorak, Savard and Allen before their final contract year
- $1.0M Smith replaces Dvorak
- $1.0M Roy replaces Gurianov
- $1.0M Heineman replaces Hoffman
- $1.0M Mailloux or Engstrom replaces Edmundson
- $9.0M 1RD replaces Savard
- $7.0M starting goalie replaces Allen
- $0.5M increase for Barron
- $0.5M increase for Xhekaj

Total $73.0M versus Cap of $86.0

That leaves enormous cap flexibility to still add talent, with Armia coming off the books at the end of the year. And we will have tons of picks and prospects to continue to fuel the rebuild.
 
There are many assumptions in the outlook shared by @BaseballCoach but I agree that the Habs’ cap situation and near future outlook looks largely fine.

It’s the horrible lack of skill and talent that needs to be addressed through the draft, through development, through buy-low trades like Gurianov (I remain unconvinced but appreciate the effort), through even trades like for Dach, through RFA offersheets, through UFA signings.

A better team has more valuable players to swap, optimizing the roster has to be a constant endeavour in competitive times and in leaner times.
 
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Really? Where did you pick up all this negative spin on Dubois? Was it your own, acquired after hearing it from some there person?

1) Tortorella was humiliating and shaming Dubois publicly. PLD wasn't the first not to buy into such treatment and, IMHO, rightfully so.

Ironically, St-Louis is a big fan of Torts, although it's not clear he's a big fan of his entire approach, especially when it comes to calling out players publicly?

I can understand Dubois asking for a trade away from Columbus. There's no reason why he should have shut his hole and endured Tortorella's treatment.

2) Prior to Winnipeg trading Laine and Roslovic to Columbus in order to acquire Dubois, the player let WIN know, privately, that he would not be signing past his RFA years with the team.

Yet, like in most relationships, WIN wrongly considered they could change Dubois' mind, likely because his Dad was associated with the team?

3) WIN made it public that Dubois was not interested in signing with them beyond his RFA years, not Dubois, when they publicly offered him a long term contract. Dubois only stuck to his guns and what he had privately shared with WIN before the trade.

4) Yes, Brisson publicly said that Dubois would one day like to play for Montreal, but he was responding to a direct question and the player was not signed to a deal with WIN at the time. While he was restricted as such, he was, nonetheless, a Free Agent until he had signed a new contract with WIN. The NHL never questioned Brisson's statements regarding either their legal or ethical nature.

5) Without holding out on the team, Dubois didn't bend WIN over a barrel in trying to negotiate a particularly lucrative 1 yr deal with the team. He accepted a standard qualifying offer and did not take the team to arbitration either. Talking a one-year deal was risky for the player in case of serious injury, but it fairly offered more avenues for WIN to move Dubois before he became an UFA.

6) With a signed contract, publicly, he refused to field questions about his future as an UFA and downplayed all the hype surrounding Montreal as a clear destination for him, preferring to keep the focus on the team and their attempt to make the playoffs and have a long push once in the postseason.

I'd argue that Dubois has rather been nothing but professional with WIN and that their Gm mishandled the situation from the get-go when he went through with the trade.

7) The disappearing act down the stretch is not limited to Dubois' offensive production. It seems widespread, where a team filled with talented players is poorly looking for answers through individualistic play.

Only Morrissey hs maintained a PPG pace over the last ten games. Every other marquis player has taken a hit in production.

While, as always, some of the blame oies with the players, including Dubois, the coaching staff also appears at loss for answers.

It has also been rumoured that Dubois is plying through an injury to try and help the team stay within playoff contention.

Dubois is no saint, I'm sure and, no, he isn't a saviour, by any means, and that shouldn't be the litmus test he is measured by either.

However, Dubois' profile is one sought after by every GM in the league for a 2nd line, two-way C that brings physicality and skill tot he table.

Even the Oilers would take aa Dubois as a 2nd line C, if only in order to play Draisaitl with Mc Jesus regularly and, possibly, to play Nugent-Hiopkins on wing with the second line, or to use him as a 3rd line C.

Dubois is a desirable asset league wide, and not just in Montreal because of the francophone ring to his name and the francophone roots in the province.

Fans are entitled to dislike the player, but I have yet to hear a good narrative explaining why the addition of Dubois would be bad for the team.
This needs to be stickied on the top of every page because we keep repeating it every other page. For people that apparently follow hockey a lot on this board, people don't seem to know shit at times.
 
Most contending teams approach first round picks like they’re a means to an end. I know we are rebuilding but a mid-round 1st round pick + 3rd round pick is really not much value going out the door in exchange for a 25 year old 6’4” first line forward.

Even as a value trade we would come ahead.

I was against the Dach trade at the time it was made because I felt the downside risk was too high. That reason doesn’t exist for PLD, he doesn’t have a history of bad injuries or ultra-low production.

What’s your thinking on this to compare him to Dvorak?

We're talking about an Offer Sheet 1st, which is a 2024 1st, and is unprotected!

PLD is a good top 6 forward he is not great. He hasn't shown that he has any kind of positive impact on a team, as anything more than a complementary player, and he goes through large stretches of invisible, unmotivated play.

I don't think getting PLD means we're suddenly out of the bottom 10 next year. All we need is for Montembeault to be slightly worse than this year next year, or get injured, and have Allen go through more tank-Allen games, and suddenly that pick is a lottery pick.

You're essentially saying, hey, if Winnipeg won't trade with us, we'll show them, we'll offer sheet him, and maybe give them the 1st OA in 2024! :facepalm:

You'll leave us with no 2024 1st, a late Colorado 2nd, no 3rd.

That is not less than Dvorak. Dvorak's 1st was 29th overall, and a 2nd probably in the 33-45 range. Not great, but likely not terrible either. We also ended up with 2 other earlier 1sts in the same draft.

The 14th OA pick by itself is worth more than 29th+2nd rounder.

The 14th OA pick is also already far more than what SJS got for Meier, who is an equivalent player to PLD.
 
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I’ll give a very unpopular opinion but it’s just that, my opinion. I’m not huge on acquiring Dubois at all. It’s grown on me a bit and I won’t be upset if it happens, but I won’t lose a link of sleep if we go another direction either. I did not like how he departed from Columbus, and I didn’t like how both himself and his agent tried to force Winnipeg’s hand by publicly mentioning our teams name while his rights were still owned by them. Those to me just scream unprofessional and we know that unprofessional players mix like gas and fire in Montreal. His disappearing act down the stretch with Winnipeg fighting for a playoff spot is concerning for me as well. If we are going to acquire this guy, the acquisition price and contract need to be right and not an overpayment. That’s just my two cents. I could end up being very wrong in the end and he does become an important part of our core.
Very good point , I agree with you ... But if he's all in he could shine . I still would not overpay . Maybe something like Dvorak, 2nd rounder and Harris. Not sure jets would take that though
 
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A lot of people are reticent in giving FLA 1sr for PLD. It is indeed a good pieces.

Would you guys hand over Farrell for PLD then? I think we have a plethora of smallish winger and we should aim for bigger player, especially in the middle six role Farrell will play.

Again, i just want to highlight the importance of bringing PLD here asap. He wants to be here. Lets not let him rot another year in WPG. It would goes a very long way for the long term relationship with his clan. We should not wreck this opportunity for top 12-15 picks or anything that is not a bluechip prospects even tho they are good pieces.

A worldwide class organisation would know the situation and try to make a fair compensative deal for Winnipeg and bring the player here rapidly.

A shitty organisation would let the cornered team in the mud and wait to UFA and then underbid the player versus the other teams on the openmarket because they want to hold on good, but redundant assets. That is Mega-Bergevin strategy.
 
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I’ll give a very unpopular opinion but it’s just that, my opinion. I’m not huge on acquiring Dubois at all. It’s grown on me a bit and I won’t be upset if it happens, but I won’t lose a link of sleep if we go another direction either. I did not like how he departed from Columbus, and I didn’t like how both himself and his agent tried to force Winnipeg’s hand by publicly mentioning our teams name while his rights were still owned by them. Those to me just scream unprofessional and we know that unprofessional players mix like gas and fire in Montreal. His disappearing act down the stretch with Winnipeg fighting for a playoff spot is concerning for me as well. If we are going to acquire this guy, the acquisition price and contract need to be right and not an overpayment. That’s just my two cents. I could end up being very wrong in the end and he does become an important part of our core.

If you later find out later that he wanted out of Columbus and Winnipeg because he really does want to play for the Habs, would you still not like it?

Call me gullible if you wish but if I made the NHL and was a Habs fan growing up, I would want to play for the Habs as well.

What I like the most is the timing. He's not coming home to be on a island by himself. Our team build up of talent does line up with his prime years. He's not coming home at age 28/29+
 
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And this is exactly why they dont hold the bargaining chip. Heck even if signed for way less and theu keep him, again that removes any trade value.
So in a way the one holding the bargaining chip is no other then him. All he has to do is accept and offer and that would make him un-tradeble till he becomes ufa.
I bet anyone win would trade him instead of putting themselves in that corner.
I've read it 3 times and still don't understand it, lol. What I understand is you worry too much, you make that too complicated. In your words it became a complicated chess game with a lot of 'if" and "if".
 
If you later find out later that he wanted out of Columbus and Winnipeg because he really does want to play for the Habs, would you still not like it?

Call me gullible if you wish but if I made the NHL and was a Habs fan growing up, I would want to play for the Habs as well.

What I like the most is the timing. He's not coming home to be on a island by himself.
May i add,

C'est tout en l'honneur de Pierre-Luc de vouloir venir ici. I remember the deception when we failed to bring Lecavalier (2x) and Briere (in 2007).

It is a big challenge and it can take a big toll on players mental health. (As we have seen with Drouin, Brisebois, Latendresse, etc ).

Lets go PLD!
 
A lot of people are reticent in giving FLA 1sr for PLD. It is indeed a good pieces.

Would you guys hand over Farrell for PLD then? I think we have a plethora of smallish winger and we should aim for bigger player, especially in the middle six role Farrell will play.

Again, i just want to highlight the importance of bringing PLD here asap. He wants to be here. Lets not let him rot another year in WPG. It would goes a very long way for the long term relation ship with his clan. We should not wreck this opportunity for top 12-15 picks or anything that is not a bluechip prospects even tho they are good pieces.

I agree with you. If he really does want to come home, lets make it happen. I'm pretty sure NHL GM's will avoid interfering this time around. Jets made a risky move trading Laine/Ros for him thinking they can convince him to stay. If he won't do sign/trade with anybody else, we have trade leverage. I personally don't see GM's trading Horvat trade value and being happy with just the one year.

I don't don't Farrell works. I think Beck is the piece we need to dangle because we are deepest up the middle. Highest I go is Beck and Panthers pick but I don't think we need to go that high. So my offer would be Beck, Habs 2nd, and a prospect like Engstrom. That to me is Trouba value and maybe even better.

I would try my best not to have the Panthers 1st on the table. We could be drafting a RD with that pick which is a team need.

Imagine if Gorton/Hughes get Dubois and it only cost us Beck, Kostenko, and Tuch

May i add,

C'est tout en l'honneur de Pierre-Luc de vouloir venir ici. I remember the deception when we failed to bring Lecavalier (2x) and Briere (in 2007).

It is a big challenge and it can take a big toll on players mental health. (As we have seen with Drouin, Brisebois, Latendresse, etc ).

Lets go PLD!

I think our team direction and youth with our coach is big factor. If Dubois is willing to take a Suzuki type contract and not come here being expected to carry us, it works for both the Habs and Dubois.

Coming home at 24/25 right at the beginning of his prime is a little different than Lacavailer and Briere back when.

Dubois would slide in the mix of Suzuki, Caufield, Guhle, Slaf, and several others. Pressure is spread out which is ideal to me.
 
If you later find out later that he wanted out of Columbus and Winnipeg because he really does want to play for the Habs, would you still not like it?

Call me gullible if you wish but if I made the NHL and was a Habs fan growing up, I would want to play for the Habs as well.

What I like the most is the timing. He's not coming home to be on an island by himself.
Whether he wanted to play here or not is irrelevant. It’s the behaviour I was criticizing. He’s a controlled asset and the NHL implemented that system for a reason.
 
1) Injury to Sean Monahan (who never really recovered), essentially making the Habs a one-line team and focusing all the opponents' defensive attention on Suzuki and his line.

2) Season ending surgery to Cole Caufield that robbed him of his best trigger man.

3) The injury to Dach that removed what was left of a semblance of higher end skill to fill out the top-six. Thankfully, down the stretch, RHP eventually stepped up to add solid positioning, all out effort and some offensive skill.

3) The lack of overall depth to replace fallen soldiers putting many players in the wrong chairs.

4) St-Louis, for lack of talented depth, over exploiting Suzuki with Twenty-Three minutes a night.

These are four solid reasons, I think, why Suzuki slowed down for a stretch of the season nearer to its end.
That shows the lack of support for Suzuki. Once Dach and Monahan get injured, Suzuki is alone and he goes in a slump. The same thing happened for Koivu. There is simply not enough talent in center on that team. It's not a matter of saying who would be the best center between Suzuki, PLD and Dach. Dach will be equal to the 2 others within' 2 years or less. In my book a good team have 3 good centers. Winning teams have that depth. A single good C in a team have serious flaws.

PLD is not a superstar à la McDavid but he's a good player. This is a team sport and with PLD I can see the possibilty of building 3 good lines. He's young enough for the rebuilding plan and he's big enough. I'm not sold on Farrell vs PLD. Farrell is fantasy talk, PLD is serious talk.
 
His market value via comparatives seems to be around 8x8.

Would be an awesome fit with Suzuki and Caufield imo.

I said it a few times. Offer the signing bonus structure and NTC or NMC to bring the AAV down as much as possible.

All 3 of these guys signed in the last 4 months. My pitch to Dubois would be 8x $8M with a full NMC and 60% of the contract paid as singing bonus money up front.

Hintz:
* Signed in contract Nov 29/22 (8x $8.45M)
* Got a NMC
* $12M/$67.6M is being paid as signing bonus
* Signed from age 27-34
* One RFA year and 7 UFA years.

Horvat:
* Signed in contract Feb 5/23 (8x $8.5M)
* Got a NTC
* $0M/$68M is being paid as signing bonus
* Signed from age 28-35
* 8 UFA years.

Larkin:
* Signed in contract Mar 1/23 (8x $8.7M)
* Got a NMC
* $0M/$69.6M is being paid as signing bonus
* Signed from age 27-34
* 8 UFA years.

That shows the lack of support for Suzuki. Once Dach and Monahan get injured, Suzuki is alone and he goes in a slump. The same thing happened for Koivu. There is simply not enough talent in center on that team. It's not a matter of saying who would be the best center between Suzuki, PLD and Dach. Dach will be equal to the 2 others within' 2 years or less. In my book a good team have 3 good centers. Winning teams have that depth. A single good C in a team have serious flaws.

PLD is not a superstar à la McDavid but he's a good player. This is a team sport and with PLD I can see the possibilty of building 3 good lines. He's young enough for the rebuilding plan and he's big enough. I'm not sold on Farrell vs PLD. Farrell is fantasy talk, PLD is serious talk.

Dubois is not McDavid but he is a center that you can line up against McDavid in the playoffs. Hard to contain McDavid but Dubois does have that size/physicality and knows how to play center. Finding a center like this is just not easy. Especially for prime years.

People are going to look at Dubois points but they need to look deeper. He provides so much more and is a playoff warrior.
 
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Jets lost last night, 3-0 to the Sharks and are barely hanging on to a playoff spot.

Winnipeg 75 GP 85 points
Calgary 75 GP 83 Points
Nashville 73 GP 82 points.

Basically, the way the Jets are going there's going to be some significant changes as suggested by Marek and Friedman.

Unless they squeak in and go on a run, I would say the probability of PLD being dealt this off season is high
 
Whether he wanted to play here or not is irrelevant. It’s the behaviour I was criticizing. He’s a controlled asset and the NHL implemented that system for a reason.

I think it matters on why he asked out of Columbus and doesn't want to extend long term with the Jets. Because it's either he is a whinner or he just wants to come home. To me, there is a difference between the two.

I could be wrong but I think he asked out of Columbus because he wanted to be traded to the Habs. He looked very uninspired after the Jets traded for him but then the following season, he likely talked with Brisson and he told him he will do his best but he has to still perform.

What was Dubois best performance to date? It was the playoffs against the Leafs where they upset them.

I think its a truly awful idea to give up Montreal's 2024 1st without any protections.

Panthers 1st maybe. Any of our 1st rounder? No way! Not even with protection. My golden rule in rebuilds is to not trade your 1st rounders even with protection cause it could back fire on you. Best to only consider trading futures when we are consistently in the top 10
 
If the Jets miss the playoffs, they will not only feel more pressure to trade PLD, but maybe other assets too. I wonder if we could extend the deal and try to get Hellebuyck. It’s certainly something I would push for if the Habs are fortunate enough to win the lottery. Bedard, PLD and Hellebuyck and this team could definitely make the playoffs and be extremely fun to watch.
 
If the Jets miss the playoffs, they will not only feel more pressure to trade PLD, but maybe other assets too. I wonder if we could extend the deal and try to get Hellebuyck. It’s certainly something I would push for if the Habs are fortunate enough to win the lottery. Bedard, PLD and Hellebuyck and this team could definitely make the playoffs and be extremely fun to watch.

Interesting idea. And we would know if we get Bedard cause the lotto is well in advance of draft day.

If you add Bedard, PLD, and Hellebuyck, we would have to dig deep in futures to get PLD and Hellebuyck and also get the Jets to take on Dvorak, Hoffman, and Gurianov. Heck, we might have to get Gallagher in that deal. I would worry about cap space management

After careful consideration, I would pass on Hellebuyck. Turns 30 next year and he has a lot of mileage. He's going to ask for a contract for 30+ we will not like and it's risky like Huberdeau and the Flames IMO.

With Dubois, we might still be in transition in the first 3 years of the 8 year term but he is still in his 20's then. With Hellebuyck, he makes us better in the short term but by the time Slaf, Roy, Hutson, and others are near their prime, Hellebuyck will be 34/35+
 
If the Jets miss the playoffs, they will not only feel more pressure to trade PLD, but maybe other assets too. I wonder if we could extend the deal and try to get Hellebuyck. It’s certainly something I would push for if the Habs are fortunate enough to win the lottery. Bedard, PLD and Hellebuyck and this team could definitely make the playoffs and be extremely fun to watch.
True, but if the Habs are going to pay a lot for a goalie and try to keep him, it would likely be better to go for Hart, as he's in the age range of the core the Habs are trying to build, or at least closer than Hellebuyck.

I would imagine Hellebuyck would want to test free agency and cash regardless where he gets dealt. Might be able to circle back to him then.
 
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