Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[MXD]

First you have to see the situation from WPG's vantage:

a) They absolutely, no matter what don't want a 'burn it down' rebuild
b) They might want to compete one last time with that core
c) They might intend to see how the next season goes and decide at a certain point if they'll do a quick firesale re-tool if things seem middling
d) They can retain PLD for less than 7m with just a simple QO

This doesn't mean we are bad trading partners, it just means the it largely depends on how WPG approach their pending '23 and '24 UFAs and their pending re-tool. It could be they do trade PLD this summer, but they'd be hard pressed to find an equal or better replacement at his caphit... so if competing is what they think they'll do in the 23-24 season, why would they trade him before the season even starts?

That would make them super at risk of an OS though, IF they don't file for arbitration.

And then they can't trade Dubois if they match.

The 1st + 3rd compensation offered will be right around Dubois' QO.

 

[salbutera]

No, what you first replied to me was specifically:

"If Habs are acquiring PLD that means the NYR blueprint is in full force and rebuild is over - translation: there will be other additions to follow with the $12M+ remaining cap space for a playoff push next season starting w using the Fla pick in a package for a 24 & under goalie be it Askarov / Hart"

The threat of an offer-sheet is worth nothing if you're not going to actually do it. And Winnipeg wont care because the offersheet is probably a better return than what they could get from a straight trade of Dubois anyways. And it looks like you didn't see it as a threat, since you have the Florida pick going in a deal for a goalie and not for Dubois.

The Rangers rebuild was not what you seem to think it was. It was not "**** the cap, **** our picks and **** our prospects", lets load up on NHL talent now and push for the playoffs! It was "lets take advantage of the opportunities in front of us and get as much talent as we can while giving up as little as we can". Remember, Davidson and Gorton were fired for being too patient for Dolan.

I don't even think you know what cap space Montreal has. Because they're looking at about 9 million (19 mill with Price on LTIR) less Montreal's inevitable bonus overages from this season. Assuming Montreal can't trade Price's contract and they'll keep him on LTIR (a safe bet, but one that hurts Montreal's future cap), then you're probably looking at about 17 mil in cap space. Almost all of that (if not all) would go to Caufield and Dubois. There would also be qualifying offers/new contracts for Gurianov, RHP and Ylonen. With what money will Montreal be paying a guy like Hart and which UFAs will be they be targeting sitting at the cap ceiling?

Never said that - end of rebuild to me means, no longer trading existing established roster players for picks / prospects and trying to position for top-5/10 draft pick. As Hughes said they are not going after 28/29 year olds.

 

[MXD]

If Dubois isn’t signed by July 1st he could be offer sheeted for around 6M (1st and 3rd rd in 2024). If Jets match the offer they can’t trade him for a year e.g. he walks to UFA. If they don’t match well the cost is “2 useless picks”.

It's not only about the Habs. Imagine a contending team having around 7M in capspace offering 6.350M/1yr offer for Dubois, and Dubois accepting that offer (the last part is a stretch, but if Dubois wants out, that's one way to do it).

That would be LESS than the usual rental value for someone like him. Oh, and if the Jets match, they can't trade him.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Never said that - end of rebuild to me means, no longer trading existing established roster players for picks / prospects and trying to position for top-5/10 draft pick. As Hughes said they are not going after 28/29 year olds.

That's not what the end of rebuild is. But lets pretend that it is - How exactly are you getting Dubois and Hart/Askarov without digging deep into the futures? Why would Montreal not trade guys like Edmundson and Hoffman? How are you getting out of the top-5/top-10 draft position with limited cap flexibility in a brutally tough division and conference?

Read the Hughes quote you posted again.

 

[donghabs98]

Wishful thinking,

Kent has zero power,

Peg has other teams to deal with

Peg are going to want roster players, not useless draft picks,

If you don't want to part with Suzuki, Dach, or Caufield, then a trade isn't happening

I highly doubt that Suzuki, Dach or Caufield like players are being traded for a player who can walk to UFA next June.

 

[Sterling Archer]

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Sure it does. Most of Montreal's injuries didn't actually hurt Montreal's performances.

Caufield, Dach, Matheson, Guhle, Monahan, and Anderson will have missed around 200 games combined lol. Four of the top 5 forwards and the two best defensemen on the team were out for a significant amount of time, and you don't think it affected much the team's performance?

You're assuming that on a more healthy team Suzuki goes and percentages bender, that guys can stay healthy, that Montreal can and will replace players who performed well here. Montreal also has gotten pretty good goaltending, which we can't really count on next season given both goalies track records. Take off the Habs fan glasses for a second and really look at other rebuilds around the NHL over the last decade. Not the surface level stuff, but the actual ebbs and flows of how teams built themselves up. None were linear. Montreal could be better next season. But unless you think they're going to be far more aggressive than we've gotten a hint of, then they could also be worse. Which is fine for where the team is at, unless you trade an unprotected 1st next year.

And I'm not sure what about concepts like "producing a lot in limited minutes" and "scoring more than the opponents" hurting your chances to lose is so complicated that you find it laughable.

The habs had eleven 23 or under players with good potential in the nhl this season (Suzuki, Dach, Caufield, Guhle, RHP, Harris, Ylonen, Barron, Xhekaj, Slafkovsky, and Farrell), which makes up a large part of the roster, and you think that collectively these kids will have an equal or worse season next year? Geez.

 

[MXD]

That's what I hinted at in my previous post.
On top of that, offer sheets aren't born equal; for 23-24, a Habs offer sheet has much better value than, say, a Golden Knights offer sheet.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Problem is it would be our 1st and unprotected, so you better hope PLD is enough to at least push us out of the top 10 otherwise there's potential for a lottery pick for Winnipeg in 2024. I don't see Hughes doing this, and Winnipeg likely takes PLD to arbitration cutting out this scenario.

 

[Habs]

Peg holds all the cards. They can choose to lose PLD for nothing in the 2024 offseason, they can choose to trade him next TDL, they can choose to shop him in the 2023 offseason.

The Habs own zero cards actually. It's not a bad thing, it's just how the dynamics work in this case. What happens really depends on a multitude of questions WPG have to ask themselves after this coming playoffs. The Habs won't be max-capped and can absorb PLD at any time.

and who is going to trade for a guy that is going to bolt for Montreal at FA? Answer - nobody

 

[MXD]

Problem is it would be our 1st and unprotected, so you better hope PLD is enough to at least push us out of the top 10 otherwise there's potential for a lottery pick for Winnipeg in 2024. I don't see Hughes doing this, and Winnipeg likely takes PLD to arbitration cutting out this scenario.

OS can be made before Team-elected Arbitration.

 

[CD2001]

So 4 assets to get a guy that will come over anyways in a year?
t
That's ridiculous asset management.

Kidney + 2nd ++ is A LOT

Not really, we have a plethora of prospects and picks which make Kidney and the 2nd expendable. But it also gives us the ability to have a year to work out his contract situation and lock him up long-term. Also there's no guarantee he comes to Montreal in Free agency even if he wants to play for us. Other teams could also break the bank and force his hand. Sometime you gotta give up assets to acquire elite young players that fit the timeline of our rebuild.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

OS can be made before Team-elected Arbitration.

Still don't see Hughes risking a lottery pick for him. If you're Vegas, Boston or Carolina, sure, but we shouldn't go down that road. PLD is a good player, but not a great one. He hasn't been productive in 2nd half. At one time he was ppg+. Now, Suzuki is out producing him on a far worse team.

PLD is at 58 points.

 

[ML16]

If Dubois isn’t signed by July 1st he could be offer sheeted for around 6M (1st and 3rd rd in 2024). If Jets match the offer they can’t trade him for a year e.g. he walks to UFA. If they don’t match well the cost is “2 useless picks”.

I don’t think they will go the offer sheet way and most Habs fans (including me) don’t want to fleece the Jets and would be fine with a reasonable trade instead of waiting an extra year. But if you think you’re getting either Dach, Suzuki or Caufield you’ll be disappointed.

I don’t think Hughes will actually use the nuclear option of offer sheeting Dubois for 1 year, but he should definitely dangle such a possibility to Winnipeg for leverage purposes, insofar as it would in theory prevent the Jets’ plan B of trading Dubois elsewhere before he becomes UFA next summer.

Indeed, under this assumption, instead of competing against a TDL 2024 price tag (late 1st + A prospect) for acquiring Dubois this summer, the Habs would rather compete against… their own 2024 1st and 3rd round picks!

 

[MXD]

Still don't see Hughes risking a lottery pick for him. If you're Vegas, Boston or Carolina, sure, but we shouldn't go down that road. PLD is a good player, but not a great one. He hasn't been productive in 2nd half. At one time he was ppg+. Now, Suzuki is out producing him on a far worse team.

PLD is at 58 points.

I probably wouldn't do it either due to the risk that it's a lottery pick. I ABSOLUTELY do it if we do win the lottery this year though.

But it is certainly a possible move, and one that KC has to keep in mind.

I don’t think Hughes will actually use the nuclear option of offer sheeting Dubois for 1 year, but he should definitely dangle such a possibility to Winnipeg for leverage purposes, insofar as it would in theory prevent the Jets’ plan B of trading Dubois elsewhere before he becomes UFA next summer.

Indeed, under this assumption, instead of competing against a TDL 2024 price tag (late 1st + A prospect) for acquiring Dubois this summer, the Habs would rather compete against… their own 2024 1st and 3rd round picks!

This is even scarier if a contender for next year decides that Dubois is the missing piece. A low 1st and a low 3rd is usually less than what players like Dubois go by at the deadline (though, I know, they'd have to pay his salary for the whole season).

 

[Captain Mountain]

Caufield, Dach, Matheson, Guhle, Monahan, and Anderson will have missed around 200 games combined lol. Four of the top 5 forwards and the two best defensemen on the team were out for a significant amount of time, and you don't think it affected much the team's performance?



The habs had eleven 23 or under players with good potential in the nhl this season (Suzuki, Dach, Caufield, Guhle, RHP, Harris, Ylonen, Barron, Xhekaj, Slafkovsky, and Farrell), which makes up a large part of the roster, and you think that collectively these kids will have an equal or worse season next year? Geez.

Listen, I like Guhle's upside as much as the next person, but I don't need to look at his 40% 5v5 goal differential or his poor underlying numbers to know that its going to take time to translate his considerable tools to the NHL. And my point is Montreal's got a lot of production from call-ups (even if RHP and maybe Barron are the only ones who have stood out as being able to maintain those performances).

Plus, look around the division and conference. Do you honestly believe Montreal is going to be able to pass the Bruins, Leafs, Lightning, Rangers, Devils or Hurricanes next season? Florida is no longer in cap hell from the Yandle buyout and has every incentive to win now, and Buffalo and Ottawa have even more young talent in the NHL than Montreal right now. The Islanders aren't going anywhere and Pittsburgh and Washington are still trying to compete now. Hell, Columbus will likely add a top-4 pick and a healthy Werenski and Laine (and potentially Texier) to Gaudreau, Jenner, Johnson, Marchenko and Boqvist.

 

[ReHabs]

That would make them super at risk of an OS though, IF they don't file for arbitration.

And then they can't trade Dubois if they match.

The 1st + 3rd compensation offered will be right around Dubois' QO.

I'd love to see an offersheet but I'm sure the Jets have ways to manoeuvre around that threat.

PLD cannot hold out because then he won't be a UFA in the 2024 offseason. If they do not intend to trade him, the Jets will qualify him and then take their time.

and who is going to trade for a guy that is going to bolt for Montreal at FA? Answer - nobody

Who's going to trade for a powerforward rental at a cap hit of 6m? Everybody.

 

[The Great Weal]

Still don't see Hughes risking a lottery pick for him. If you're Vegas, Boston or Carolina, sure, but we shouldn't go down that road. PLD is a good player, but not a great one. He hasn't been productive in 2nd half. At one time he was ppg+. Now, Suzuki is out producing him on a far worse team.

PLD is at 58 points.

Ya he's really fallen off. He's never really hit his maximum ability, but you have to wonder how much the fact that he doesn't want to play in Winnipeg is affecting his play. Guys like Duchene, ROR and Pacioretty come to mind for not performing to their abilities when they wanted out.

 

[Sterling Archer]

That's what I hinted at in my previous post.
On top of that, offer sheets aren't born equal; for 23-24, a Habs offer sheet has much better value than, say, a Golden Knights offer sheet.

PLD needs to sign the OS. Suffice it to say, I think he wouldn’t sign it unless it was from Montreal. So no need to worry about other teams if PLD really wants to be a Hab.

Problem is it would be our 1st and unprotected, so you better hope PLD is enough to at least push us out of the top 10 otherwise there's potential for a lottery pick for Winnipeg in 2024. I don't see Hughes doing this, and Winnipeg likely takes PLD to arbitration cutting out this scenario.

I don’t think he has to do it or will. The threat of doing it along with PLD wanting to move etc. should be enough. I can’t imagine Chevy will want to do this again next year with all the distractions and a player who doesn’t want to be there. He’ll have the run this year and be done with it. PLD has some power too but I think Chevy is reasonable enough to move on for all parties. The trade value should be about that of a 1st and a 3rd even if not exactly that. Could be Mailloux and a pick or tier B prospect. Could be DVo and a prospect. But I don’t think it’ll be the exorbitant price some are speculating.

 

[ReHabs]

Problem is it would be our 1st and unprotected, so you better hope PLD is enough to at least push us out of the top 10 otherwise there's potential for a lottery pick for Winnipeg in 2024. I don't see Hughes doing this, and Winnipeg likely takes PLD to arbitration cutting out this scenario.

There are simply too many unknowns about this situation for us to make a definitive call but if you'd force me to choose, I'd make this offersheet.

PLD isn't a game-breaking talent -- he's only on pace for 72 pts -- but he is a good add and at that price it's a no brainer. The Habs added Dvorak for more that that ffs. More for Dach too.

I'd trade every 1st round pick of magic beans for a 70ish point player on the right side of 25.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Ya he's really fallen off. He's never really hit his maximum ability, but you have to wonder how much the fact that he doesn't want to play in Winnipeg is affecting his play. Guys like Duchene, ROR and Pacioretty come to mind for not performing to their abilities when they wanted out.

His value is dropping by the day. Don't see any team ponying up a higher 1st than what Montreal has in Florida pick. Or, a high end prospect, or a top 6 forward. Meier didn't get any of that.

Teams are still up against the cap next year too.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

There are simply too many unknowns about this situation for us to make a definitive call but if you'd force me to choose, I'd make this offersheet.

PLD isn't a game-breaking talent -- he's only on pace for 72 pts -- but he is a good add and at that price it's a no brainer. The Habs added Dvorak for more that that ffs. More for Dach too.

I'd trade every 1st round pick of magic beans for a 70ish point player on the right side of 25.

Well, Bergevin was stupid on the Dvorak trade. That doesn't mean we should go double or nothing.

We'll see what happens.

 

[Milhouse40]

Agreed, and that's why a trade isn't happening,

But thinking PLD is a lock to sign with Habs as an UFA is just Wishful thinking

And it still has to make sense for the Habs.
I'm looking at Suzuki and Dach down the middle.....not sure it's worth it to give a big contract if the guy wants to play center too. Dach is a huge center, if he keep it up...he's almost a PPG at center and he's playing with scrubs.

 

[ML16]

Peg holds all the cards. They can choose to lose PLD for nothing in the 2024 offseason, they can choose to trade him next TDL, they can choose to shop him in the 2023 offseason.

The Habs own zero cards actually. It's not a bad thing, it's just how the dynamics work in this case. What happens really depends on a multitude of questions WPG have to ask themselves after this coming playoffs. The Habs won't be max-capped and can absorb PLD at any time.

Losing Dubois for nothing next summer is not really a card per se.

And as for the Jets’ actual cards - trading him this summer or at TDL 2024 - they basically amount to the same value for any teams besides the Habs, namely the price of a one-year rental (late 1st + A prospect).

The Habs have plenty of cards.

They can play hardball and say they’ll wait for Dubois’ UFA status next summer.

They can mitigate the risk of waiting for 2024 by offer-sheeting Dubois to a 1 year deal to make sure he doesn’t go elsewhere than Montreal or Winnipeg next season.

Most importantly, the Habs also have plenty of expendable assets for a quality vs quantity trade to make it interesting for Winnipeg, whatever the Jets elect to do (contend/retool, ie) next year: around 27 players that can play in the NHL ; a plethora of prospects, plenty of draft capital as well.

 

[Habs]

I'd love to see an offersheet but I'm sure the Jets have ways to manoeuvre around that threat.

PLD cannot hold out because then he won't be a UFA in the 2024 offseason. If they do not intend to trade him, the Jets will qualify him and then take their time.

Who's going to trade for a powerforward rental at a cap hit of 6m? Everybody.

to lose him the next year? Maybe, but the return won't be great. See less and less of the 3 month rental its not a great move ask Florida

Still don't see Hughes risking a lottery pick for him. If you're Vegas, Boston or Carolina, sure, but we shouldn't go down that road. PLD is a good player, but not a great one. He hasn't been productive in 2nd half. At one time he was ppg+. Now, Suzuki is out producing him on a far worse team.

PLD is at 58 points.

58 pts on a stacked jets team is 40 pts in this black hole of offense. I did the math!