Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[Tyson]

It definitely doesn't show they can be worse. A team that is already at the bottom, and is as young as the habs, who have had a historic injury season, and who has been adding good players (Farrell, RHP, Gurianov, Dubois?, etc.), is highly unlikely to not improve.




The notion that Belzile, Richard, Ylonen, and RHP have messed up the tank is laughable. The top scorer in that list has 17 pts lol.

They have filled in admirably though.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Did you miss the portion right after without taking a breath, where Hughes says (as underlined):
“but again, we’re hopeful we have opportunities to trade for good, young players like a Kirby Dach, instead of using a draft pick for it. We’ll try to do that, and that’s kind of a way to expedite the timeline”

I got that. And I wouldn't be shocked if Florida's 1st, the Calgary 1st or a heavily protected future 1st was moved in a Dubois trade. I'm saying moving an unprotected 2024 1st as part of an offersheet is a dumb idea. Which is what you replied to. And offersheeting Dubois is a dumb idea. Its also pretty out of character for the kind of deliberate moves the front office have made so far. What it is the kind of thing Bergevin would (and did) do - make a splash now while kind of thread the needle between winning now and the future and worry about next year next year.

If Montreal's rebuild ends up reflecting the Rangers rebuild, then it would likely reflect the actual Rangers rebuild and not the imagined Bergevinian one. Namely acquiring youngish NHL talent where you can and when the cost is low while keeping a focus on drafting high and often. Because remember, the Rangers traded a late 1st (that they got from the Jets in the 1st place) and a young D-man that they didn't need anyways (with Trouba going the other way and Skjei, DeAngelo, Lindgren, Miller and Fox in the system), they didn't offersheet him and give the Jets their unprotected 2020 1st.

 

[crosbyshow]

I think not wanting to sign Danault is the best comparable to not wanting to trade or sign Dubois as a UFA.

..we let Danault go...


..and we traded a first round pick to get his replacement..... Dvorak at only 1.million less per year....Dvorak is not Danault...far from it...and Danault was from the place.

..and look what Danault did the last 2 seasons...

 

[Playmaker09]

Damn! Had it made you Nostradamus instead, we might have some riddle to decipher that lets us know ahead of time, ho this whole Dubois thing plays out.

Ah well...


Seriously, what are you talking about?

You said the only way we trade for PLD is with an extension in place.
If you already know that PLD will extend for $7.5 million/year, then just wait and sign him for that in 2024.
If PLD is the type to take that offer to play in his hometown now, he will do so next year.
To change his mind halfway through the year would be completely inconsistent with the premise that he would agree to a reasonable sign-and-trade. If he's going to chase money he'll do it regardless, and if he wants to come home he'll do it regardless.

I don't understand how some of you argue this from both sides. "He'll agree to a sign-and-trade for under $8 million now, but if we wait he'll chase $10 million in UFA" is a position that makes little sense. His desire to play for the Habs is well documented and he either prioritizes getting top dollar over that or he doesn't, just wait a year and you'll find out which it is.

The only reason for a team in our position to expedite this and trade for him now would be to secure his services for next year. This is useless to us as we suck and will not be competing for a playoff spot next year. Adding PLD changes nothing.

If he wanted to go to Boston and only Boston, I could see them trading for him early to get him for next year where they will actually have a use for him in their pursuit of the cup. They'd probably be trading first round picks for rentals anyway, so why not now.

But this is not the position we find ourselves in at all.

 

[Conflicted Habs fan]

If you are a single man looking to build a life with the right woman, and you hear that one is interested in you but is currently living in another city, but is willing to move to your city, do you contact her and try to get to start up something now/soon, or say you'll wait a year+ until her lease is over, and expect her to be there on all your terms at that time?

Well maybe if I was a single man and the woman you think is interested in me happens to live in Azerbaijan but really is interested in Mongolia but says she wants to come here and I find out later she's been shopping around and is not 100% a woman, entirely, I wouldnt be hasty in my decision

 

[Habs Halifax]

..we let Danault go...


..and we trade 1 first round pick to get his replacement..... Dvorak at only 1.million less per year....

..and look what Danault did the last 2 seasons...

Yup, I'm not happy about how some fans and media attacked Danault and how Bergevin managed it. Danault was very good for us. Decided to let him walk and then we signed Gallagher, Hoffman, Armia instead. It will take me a few years to get over it but maybe it was for the best. Bergevin lost his job and we are in a better rebuilding spot. Dubois is 6 years younger than Danault

 

[Draft]

Well maybe if I was a single man and the woman you think is interested in me happens to live in Azerbaijan but really is interested in Mongolia but says she wants to come here and I find out later she's been shopping around and is not 100% a woman, entirely, I wouldnt be hasty in my decision

Suspiciously specific.

 

[Captain Mountain]

It definitely doesn't show they can be worse. A team that is already at the bottom, and is as young as the habs, who have had a historic injury season, and who has been adding good players (Farrell, RHP, Gurianov, Dubois?, etc.), is highly unlikely to not improve.
Several of those poor contracts are gone this summer (Monahan, Byron, Dadonov, Drouin).




The notion that Belzile, Richard, Ylonen, and RHP have messed up the tank is laughable. The top scorer in that list has 17 pts lol.

Sure it does. Most of Montreal's injuries didn't actually hurt Montreal's performances. You're assuming that on a more healthy team Suzuki goes and percentages bender, that guys can stay healthy, that Montreal can and will replace players who performed well here. Montreal also has gotten pretty good goaltending, which we can't really count on next season given both goalies track records. Take off the Habs fan glasses for a second and really look at other rebuilds around the NHL over the last decade. Not the surface level stuff, but the actual ebbs and flows of how teams built themselves up. None were linear. Montreal could be better next season. But unless you think they're going to be far more aggressive than we've gotten a hint of, then they could also be worse. Which is fine for where the team is at, unless you trade an unprotected 1st next year.

And I'm not sure what about concepts like "producing a lot in limited minutes" and "scoring more than the opponents" hurting your chances to lose is so complicated that you find it laughable.

 

[Conflicted Habs fan]

Suspiciously specific.

Happens all the time

 

[BaseballCoach]

If you've agreed on a price already, there's no reason to give up assets for what will become free in 16 months. That only makes sense for a team who needs his services next year to compete, which is not us.

Nothing has been agreed already. All you know is that Dubois has expressed interest in playing here ( but never exclusive interest).

 

[salbutera]

I got that. And I wouldn't be shocked if Florida's 1st, the Calgary 1st or a heavily protected future 1st was moved in a Dubois trade. I'm saying moving an unprotected 2024 1st as part of an offersheet is a dumb idea. Which is what you replied to. And offersheeting Dubois is a dumb idea. Its also pretty out of character for the kind of deliberate moves the front office have made so far. What it is the kind of thing Bergevin would (and did) do - make a splash now while kind of thread the needle between winning now and the future and worry about next year next year.

If Montreal's rebuild ends up reflecting the Rangers rebuild, then it would likely reflect the actual Rangers rebuild and not the imagined Bergevinian one. Namely acquiring youngish NHL talent where you can and when the cost is low while keeping a focus on drafting high and often. Because remember, the Rangers traded a late 1st (that they got from the Jets in the 1st place) and a young D-man that they didn't need anyways (with Trouba going the other way and Skjei, DeAngelo, Lindgren, Miller and Fox in the system), they didn't offersheet him and give the Jets their unprotected 2020 1st.

What I also said initially was acquiring PLD will not be done in a vacuum, it signals HuGo will acquire other established 24 & under NHLers to round out areas of need.

I’m expecting PLD + Askarov / Hart + 1-2 key veteran UFA adds using the approx $20M available this offseason in bid to make the team push for a wild card spot next season.

Using the threat of an offer sheet for a GM in a very vulnerable position (Chevaldayoff) is not the same thing as actually extending the offer sheet

 

[Habs Halifax]

Sure it does. Most of Montreal's injuries didn't actually hurt Montreal's performances. You're assuming that on a more healthy team Suzuki goes and percentages bender, that guys can stay healthy, that Montreal can and will replace players who performed well here. Montreal also has gotten pretty good goaltending, which we can't really count on next season given both goalies track records. Take off the Habs fan glasses for a second and really look at other rebuilds around the NHL over the last decade. Not the surface level stuff, but the actual ebbs and flows of how teams built themselves up. None were linear. Montreal could be better next season. But unless you think they're going to be far more aggressive than we've gotten a hint of, then they could also be worse. Which is fine for where the team is at, unless you trade an unprotected 1st next year.

And I'm not sure what about concepts like "producing a lot in limited minutes" and "scoring more than the opponents" hurting your chances to lose is so complicated that you find it laughable.

Heading into this season many thought bottom 5 "for sure". Well, it looks like 5-7 range. And we are certainly not getting blown out of games as much as last year.

So yeah, we do stand at improving a bit more next year but every season is different.

As far as the goalies performance? They go hand and hand with the team D in front of them. Looked much worse last year but so was our team D. Looked better this year but our team is more competitive.

 

[Playmaker09]

Nothing has been agreed already. All you know is that Dubois has expressed interest in playing here ( but never exclusive interest).

He was talking specifically about a trade with an extension already in place.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Nothing has been agreed already. All you know is that Dubois has expressed interest in playing here ( but never exclusive interest).

I like to believe it's not an exclusive interest but we are at the top of the list.

 

[Canadienna]

The thing about Friedman's comments is that if he was wrong, he would have gotten some texts or pushback and backtracked a bit.

This isn't the first time he mentioned Dubois to Montreal is a thing.

The only caveat is if him and Brisson are working together to generate some leverage, but tbh this whole thing has maybe made him less likeable to other GMs, so I'm not sure that makes sense either.

 

[WeThreeKings]

The thing about Friedman's comments is that if he was wrong, he would have gotten some texts or pushback and backtracked a bit.

This isn't the first time he mentioned Dubois to Montreal is a thing.

The only caveat is if him and Brisson are working together to generate some leverage, but tbh this whole thing has maybe made him less likeable to other GMs, so I'm not sure that makes sense either.

It seems the worst kept secret since Panarin going to NYR as a FA.

 

[sampollock]

The thing about Friedman's comments is that if he was wrong, he would have gotten some texts or pushback and backtracked a bit.

This isn't the first time he mentioned Dubois to Montreal is a thing.

The only caveat is if him and Brisson are working together to generate some leverage, but tbh this whole thing has maybe made him less likeable to other GMs, so I'm not sure that makes sense either.

True enough.. if EF says it is 95% done, there must be a deal or the mainframe of one readly to go

 

[Captain Mountain]

What I also said initially was acquiring PLD will not be done in a vacuum, it signals HuGo will acquire other established 24 & under NHLers to round out areas of need.

I’m expecting PLD + Askarov / Hart + 1-2 key veteran UFA adds using the approx $20M available this offseason in bid to make the team push for a wild card spot next season.

Using the threat of an offer sheet for a GM in a very vulnerable position (Chevaldayoff) is not the same thing as actually extending the offer sheet

No, what you first replied to me was specifically:

"If Habs are acquiring PLD that means the NYR blueprint is in full force and rebuild is over - translation: there will be other additions to follow with the $12M+ remaining cap space for a playoff push next season starting w using the Fla pick in a package for a 24 & under goalie be it Askarov / Hart"

The threat of an offer-sheet is worth nothing if you're not going to actually do it. And Winnipeg wont care because the offersheet is probably a better return than what they could get from a straight trade of Dubois anyways. And it looks like you didn't see it as a threat, since you have the Florida pick going in a deal for a goalie and not for Dubois.

The Rangers rebuild was not what you seem to think it was. It was not "**** the cap, **** our picks and **** our prospects", lets load up on NHL talent now and push for the playoffs! It was "lets take advantage of the opportunities in front of us and get as much talent as we can while giving up as little as we can". Remember, Davidson and Gorton were fired for being too patient for Dolan.

I don't even think you know what cap space Montreal has. Because they're looking at about 9 million (19 mill with Price on LTIR) less Montreal's inevitable bonus overages from this season. Assuming Montreal can't trade Price's contract and they'll keep him on LTIR (a safe bet, but one that hurts Montreal's future cap), then you're probably looking at about 17 mil in cap space. Almost all of that (if not all) would go to Caufield and Dubois. There would also be qualifying offers/new contracts for Gurianov, RHP and Ylonen. With what money will Montreal be paying a guy like Hart and which UFAs will be they be targeting sitting at the cap ceiling?

 

[BaseballCoach]

Sure it does. Most of Montreal's injuries didn't actually hurt Montreal's performances.

The key ones that seriously impacted our points total are:
1. Monahan
2. Matheson
3. Caufield

And they key roster decisin was playing Allen so much. He has been horrible despite stealing 2 games and keeping us close in 5 more.

 

[sampollock]

Kent holds the cards on this, the Peg has no power to bargan. who blinks first

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Kent holds the cards on this, the Peg has no power to bargan. who blinks first

he will have value as a rental

 

[ReHabs]

Kent holds the cards on this, the Peg has no power to bargan. who blinks first

Peg holds all the cards. They can choose to lose PLD for nothing in the 2024 offseason, they can choose to trade him next TDL, they can choose to shop him in the 2023 offseason.

The Habs own zero cards actually. It's not a bad thing, it's just how the dynamics work in this case. What happens really depends on a multitude of questions WPG have to ask themselves after this coming playoffs. The Habs won't be max-capped and can absorb PLD at any time.

 

[CDN24]

he will have value as a rental

The problem for Winnipeg with going the trade him as a rental route is twofold.

1) risk of injury- if he is injured at the deadline he has Sean Monahan value
2) what if Jets are sitting 3rd in the division at the deadline, do you trade him then to a contender for futures and fall out of the playoffs?

I think they have to go the Calgary route with Tkachuk as opposed to the calgary route with Gaudreau and either get him signed long term this summer or move him. keeping him to lose for nothing or be in a no win situation at the deadline is the least likely option

 

[ReHabs]

The problem for Winnipeg with going the trade him as a rental route is twofold.

1) risk of injury- if he is injured at the deadline he has Sean Monahan value
2) what if Jets are sitting 3rd in the division at the deadline, do you trade him then to a contender for futures and fall out of the playoffs?

I think they have to go the Calgary route with Tkachuk as opposed to the calgary route with Gaudreau and either get him signed long term this summer or move him. keeping him to lose for nothing or be in a no win situation at the deadline is the least likely option

First you have to see the situation from WPG's vantage:

a) They absolutely, no matter what don't want a 'burn it down' rebuild
b) They might want to compete one last time with that core
c) They might intend to see how the next season goes and decide at a certain point if they'll do a quick firesale re-tool if things seem middling
d) They can retain PLD for less than 7m with just a simple QO

This doesn't mean we are bad trading partners, it just means the it largely depends on how WPG approach their pending '23 and '24 UFAs and their pending re-tool. It could be they do trade PLD this summer, but they'd be hard pressed to find an equal or better replacement at his caphit... so if competing is what they think they'll do in the 23-24 season, why would they trade him before the season even starts?

 

[jrom]

Wishful thinking,

Kent has zero power,

Peg has other teams to deal with

Peg are going to want roster players, not useless draft picks,

If you don't want to part with Suzuki, Dach, or Caufield, then a trade isn't happening

If Dubois isn’t signed by July 1st he could be offer sheeted for around 6M (1st and 3rd rd in 2024). If Jets match the offer they can’t trade him for a year e.g. he walks to UFA. If they don’t match well the cost is “2 useless picks”.

I don’t think they will go the offer sheet way and most Habs fans (including me) don’t want to fleece the Jets and would be fine with a reasonable trade instead of waiting an extra year. But if you think you’re getting either Dach, Suzuki or Caufield you’ll be disappointed.