Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[Habs Halifax]

No, he's not. He was selected 33rd overall and his stocks didn't rise with a 66pts in 60games season. I'm not saying he will not be worth that in the future, but to think that right now, Beck value is a 20th pick overall is homerism at this point....

He's is worth a 20-32 range pick today. He's increased his early 2nd round value. You don't have to agree but spare me with your dream and homerism narratives.

Beck is not worth just a 33rd OA pick a year after the draft. Keep trying

 

[Playmaker09]

Because we only trade for him if it's a sign and trade situation at a cost Hughes is comfortable with.

I don't think you'll find very many people here that would trade for PLD without a new contract put in place.

A sign and trade requires PLD to agree to a reasonable number to play for the Habs.

In which case your scenario of 32 teams inflating his value at UFA is irrelevant. If he wants to be a Hab at a reasonable number, he still will.
If he wants to make max money and hit UFA, he still will.

Again, just wait 16 months and you will find out who he is. He is not someone we should be worried about missing out on at an inflated price.
If you already know he will come at a reasonable amount, why are you trading for him?

 

[MXD]

Again, just wait 16 months and you will find out who he is. He is not someone we should be worried about missing out on at an inflated price.
If you already know he will come at a reasonable amount, why are you trading for him?

- Have him one year earlier
- Have him on a somewhat lower pricetag (in theory)
- Have no competition from any potential other team
- The deal ends earlier, though more "prime" years, so to speak

I do agree that dishing out assets to have to privilege of paying PLD 9M per for 8 years doesn't make any sense.

 

[SwiftyHab]

If Habs are acquiring PLD that means the NYR blueprint is in full force and rebuild is over - translation: there will be other additions to follow with the $12M+ remaining cap space for a playoff push next season starting w using the Fla pick in a package for a 24 & under goalie be it Askarov / Hart

If we get PLD, the value of our 2024th 1st goes down as well probably finish in no man's land as a playoff bubble team

 

[BergevinBurner]

In which case your scenario of 32 teams inflating his value at UFA is irrelevant. If he wants to be a Hab at a reasonable number, he still will.
If he wants to make max money and hit UFA, he still will.

If he hears the news that he can sign a 8x8 contract with Montreal this summer and avoid playing another year in Winnipeg and avoid potentially getting injured during a 1 year contract next year, I'm sure he'd jump all over it. That's why the incentives there for Hughes to look at a sign and trade.

But if he plays out his final year in Winnipeg and doesn't get injured, then he no longer has to wait a year to get out of Winnipeg and there's no longer a risk of injury before signing his next big contract.

 

[Scriptor]

PLD is not a 70 point player, and he is not "available"

Why was there no obsession around here about aquiring Kadri?

He is better than PLD, has a cup,

He doesn't have the correct last name, thats all

Kadri had maple Leaf stain on him. I never long for a Maple Leaf player.

And, no, PLD is not a 70-point player, but he has scored 20+ goals 4 out of 6 years in this league, with 18 goals coming close for a 5th year. He's also most likely gotten 60+ points in three of those six years in this league by the end of this season ( I doubt he doesn't get at least 2 points in his remaining 8 games).

The floor for Dubois is set at around 25 goals and 60 points, but the player is only 24, today and will be entering next season in his prime as just a 25-yr-old!

Projection of a 70-point plateau as a ceiling for Dubois in the coming years is about as conservative a projection as can be, IMHO, but its is still a projection if you want to be a hard set doubter.

And no, today, Dubois is not much better than the 45th C that he was last season, stat-wise, but the better years are coming for Dubois, IMHO and he could well climb within the top-30 Cs in the NHL by coming closer to 70 points in the future.

A top-30 C as a 2nd line C would be quite the addition to any roster, IMO.

Suzuki is 23, a little over a year younger than Dubois and he has already tied last year's career high of 61 points with 8 games left to play. This year, on a team with a barren roster that was also hit hard by injuries, boasting the kind of NHL depth reserved for AHL affiliates, Suzuki will creep closer to 70 points as he continues to progress, nearing his prime years.

The odds of Suzuki, on a deeper roster in the coming years, more so with the addition of Dubois to solidify the second line as its pivot, or to play a direct role supporting Suzuki as his power winger on the first line, becoming a PPG pivot and becoming one of the leagueLs top-20 Centers are more than pretty good, IMO.

A top-20 C and a top-30 C entering their prime as a 1-2 punch up front would definitely be something you could build a perennial contender around.

 

[WeThreeKings]

If we get PLD, the value of our 2024th 1st goes down as well probably finish in no man's land as a playoff bubble team

We will anyways.. look how many injuries it took to this year and we still could be picking in back half of the top 10.

 

[Habs Halifax]

If we get PLD, the value of our 2024th 1st goes down as well probably finish in no man's land as a playoff bubble team

I'm not sure about that. With or without Dubois, i see a pick from 10-15 range. If not for the key injuries this year, I think we would be picking 8-12 range.

Dubois to me is a long game plan and adding him now so he can grow with the team. I don't think we turn the needle until guys like Slaf, Farrell, Guhle, Xhekaj, Barron, Maillous, Hutson, Roy, etc start to hit prime.

So for me, the next 3 years are still some form of transition/rebuild (with or without Dubois). Get him now at the $8M (+/-) cap hit so you don't have to find a top 2C later at $10M+ when the cap is higher.

 

[MXD]

If he hears the news that he can sign a 8x8 contract with Montreal this summer and avoid playing another year in Winnipeg and avoid potentially getting injured during a 1 year contract next year, I'm sure he'd jump all over it. That's why the incentives there for Hughes to look at a sign and trade.

But if he plays out his final year in Winnipeg and doesn't get injured, then he no longer has to wait a year to get out of Winnipeg and there's no longer a risk of injury before signing his next big contract.

There's that risk, too.

And the possibility that :
- A team offers him something like 9.5M out of the blue after a season similar to this one (meaning that we miss out on PLD, and while missing out PLD at 9.5M isn't exactly "missing out" because that's not good value, it is bad value if we could've signed him at 7M or something).
- PLD has a monster season (think 35 goals, 85+ pts) and suddenly the pricetag is much higher that could've been acquired earlier (and paid less)

 

[SwiftyHab]

I'm not sure about that. With or without Dubois, i see a pick from 10-15 range. If not for the key injuries this year, I think we would be picking 8-12 range.

Dubois to me is a long game plan and adding him now so he can grow with the team. I don't think we turn the needle until guys like Slaf, Farrell, Guhle, Xhekaj, Barron, Maillous, Hutson, Roy, etc start to hit prime.

So for me, the next 3 years are still some form of transition/rebuild (with or without Dubois).

Sure but were offering Florida's pick this year which is already in that range so why not a similar pick but next year?

 

[CHwest]

The week leading up to the draft and the draft itself will be quite interesting. Hugues definately wants to acquire another 1st to use as currency, like he did when he knew that was the asking price for Dach.

Bettman might just have another announcement starting with "We have two trades to announce..."

I love these pronouncements, like you definitely know.

 

[Captain Mountain]

If Habs are acquiring PLD that means the NYR blueprint is in full force and rebuild is over - translation: there will be other additions to follow with the $12M+ remaining cap space for a playoff push next season starting w using the Fla pick in a package for a 24 & under goalie be it Askarov / Hart

That's not the NYR blueprint though and it does not match the GMs comments. Nor does that take into account that, barring a lottery win, Montreal's unlikely to finish higher than 7th in their division next season.

Offersheets are generally very stupid and in this case exceedingly stupid. If Dubois wants to come in Montreal, negotiating or waiting for him to hit free agency makes more sense than just saying f*** it and offering up an unprotected 1st. If Dubois doesn't care about going to Montreal, then Montreal isn't in a position to bid for him anyways.

 

[MXD]

Kadri had maple Leaf stain on him. I never long for a Maple Leaf player.

Much more importantly, Kadri is closer to my age than to Dubois's age, and I'm old enough to have been in age to father a few members of the actual edition of the Habs.

EDIT : My bad. "nearly closer to my age than to Dubois's age" but the principle remains the same.

 

[salbutera]

That's not the NYR blueprint though and it does not match the GMs comments. Nor does that take into account that, barring a lottery win, Montreal's unlikely to finish higher than 7th in their division next season.

Offersheets are generally very stupid and in this case exceedingly stupid. If Dubois wants to come in Montreal, negotiating or waiting for him to hit free agency makes more sense than just saying f*** it and offering up an unprotected 1st. If Dubois doesn't care about going to Montreal, then Montreal isn't in a position to bid for him anyways.

How so? Hughes clearly stated to LeBrun his preference is to use picks as collateral for a Dach like trade vs actually drafting a players to
“help accelerate the rebuild”

 

[Habs Halifax]

Sure but were offering Florida's pick this year which is already in that range so why not a similar pick but next year?

I'm only offering the Panthers 1st if Dubois is open to sign/trade with several teams and we have to up our offer. My offer starts lower and is around the Trouba trade value. Then maybe we have to include the Panthers 1st or one of our RD's if there are several teams Dubois is willing to sign with. I have a low and higher package. Beck is in both but the Panthers 1st is not in both.

Trading the Panthers 1st knowing it's 14-18 range is different than trading a future pick with protection. We stand to improve but it's difficult to project and if things happen you can't predict, we might end up trading a unprotected pick like the Sens did with Duchene and then the Sharks with Karlsson. Neither of Sens or Sharks planed on what happened.

 

[Scriptor]

I doubt we use this tactic, but interesting nonetheless

I doubt we use it, but Hughes can threaten to use it if Winnipeg refuses to deal him?

The defence Winnipeg has, though, is taking Dubois to arbitration and pulling him off the market for hostile offer sheets.

 

[Captain Mountain]

We will anyways.. look how many injuries it took to this year and we still could be picking in back half of the top 10.

Montreal's bottom 5 in most team metrics in the NHL. They have more points than they probably should because they've been blown out a ton and have won/picked up points in more than a few games they had no reason to win.

Injuries actually hurt Montreal's tanking chances because Belzile, Richard, Ylonen, RHP, Barron and even Pezzetta have been better than most of the guys who have gone down. The only major injury losses have been Caufield, Dach and Matheson. Maybe Edmundson given how he's been playing recently.

I wouldn't be that optimistic about Montreal's chances next season, Dubois or not.

 

[Draft]

I'd rather trade our 2024 1st (top-5/10 protected) instead of the 2023 FLA pick. I just don't see what the fuss is to move this FLA pick.

Moving the 2024 pick is a small risk as I think we end up higher in the standings next year. Push it to 2025 if things don't come together. We get a player from a better draft that's one year closer to the NHL.

 

[MXD]

The defence Winnipeg has, though, is taking Dubois to arbitration and pulling him off the market for hostile offer sheets.

Team-elect arbitration doesn't COMPLETELY block an OS. I just means the offer has to be made before... Some day in July (can't remember which).

 

[1909]

I'm cautious of overpaying for Dubois as well, but it would be insane to choose Mailloux, Beck or Barron over a Mitchkov or Benson.

Don't forget that Habs would have Dubois on top of their actual kids, instead of a guy who could reach NHL in 3-4 seasons or never, like Mitchkov.

Team-elect arbitration doesn't COMPLETELY block an OS. I just means the offer has to be made before... Some day in July (can't remember which).

Hughes won't go the OS route for sure.

 

[MXD]

Hughes won't go the OS route for sure.

You're probably right.

 

[Captain Mountain]

How so? Hughes clearly stated to LeBrun his preference is to use picks as collateral for a Dach like trade vs actually drafting a players to
“help accelerate the rebuild”

That's not what he said and that's not what the Rangers did.

Hughes said he'd look for opportunities like the Dach trade, but he was realistic about Montreal's timeline to compete for a playoff spot again. People also seem to forget what the Dach trade was. It wasn't Montreal trading a high 1st to get a young NHL with upside, it was Montreal trading a couple of mid-round picks and a young NHLer playing a position that was an area of strength to get a young NHL with upside which addressed an area of weakness.

And for all the expediting the Rangers did in their rebuild, they never traded their first until they already knew they were back in the playoffs (Post-Gorton). Hell, they traded a late 1st and Pionk to get Trouba and signed Panarin in 2019, then traded Skjei the next season so that they could draft twice in the 1st round in 2020 (including 1st OA).

 

[TomKosto]

He's is worth a 20-32 range pick today. He's increased his early 2nd round value. You don't have to agree but spare me with your dream and homerism narratives.

Beck is not worth just a 33rd OA pick a year after the draft. Keep trying

Care to explain how Beck value went up with the year he had? Wanna see who's trying.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I doubt we use it, but Hughes can threaten to use it if Winnipeg refuses to deal him?

The defence Winnipeg has, though, is taking Dubois to arbitration and pulling him off the market for hostile offer sheets.

This is why I do think the Jets consider a trade on draft day if they feel they get good value. Waiting and waiting could end up worse. They really do need to shit of get off the pot cause if they decide to do a mini rebuild, that should start at the 2023 draft.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Don't forget that Habs would have Dubois on top of their actual kids, instead of a guy who could reach NHL in 3-4 seasons or never, like Mitchkov.


Hughes won't go the OS route for sure.

You're talking about trading a player that could be a franchise altering core piece over trading a player that could be a 2nd pair D-man or a 3rd line center. Montreal's got a lot of prospects and will start to run into problems with giving guys opportunities. You bet on upside, not being better now.