Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[EveryDay]

For those that speak French. An excellent article on Pierre luc Dubois.

He would be excellent in MTL, I don't have any doubt about that, the only problem is the cost of acquisition. I'm not sure Hughes is ready to pay the price, I hope so...

 

[Milhouse40]

FWIW, I buy at least 60 points. But, I very much doubt he becomes a power forward (as some are projecting). I would have loved to have Tatar back on a short deal, to act as his mentor and as someone who is liked by several players who were his teammates while he was here. I’m assuming it wouldn’t cost all that much to sign Tatar, who is now a UFA.

Lol he was on pace for around 32 points if the team wouldn’t have gone to sh* after 25 games, at 18 years old while having to adjust to the pace of the NHL.

His ceiling is higher than that

It was more an example in the end.

If we expect a propect's ceiling will be around the same amount of points that Dubois is already doing, then we shouldn't be scare to pull the plug. I only used Slaf since there's a lot of mix feelings as he just arrived, but if one don't see him become a consistant 60-65 points player, then he shouldn't be off the table for a trade for a 60-65 points player.

That goes for Farrell, Mesar, RHP, Heineman, Roy, Kidney, Beck and that goes for picks too.
We already have too much quantity so we need to try to get quality.

 

[Barriwhite]

For those that speak French. An excellent article on Pierre luc Dubois.

Pratte clearly reads HF

 

[Canadienna]

I'm not moving Dach, Slaf, Guhle or any other core piece for Dubois. And I absolutely consider Slaf a core piece.

If there's no "easy path" to get Dubois then we walk, and give Dach and Suzuki a full season as our 1-2C.

Not out of principle, but because we are still early in the process if rebuilding. We should be opportunistic and patient.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

Noted expert insider Steve Dangle on the idea of PLD signing anywhere other than the Habs.

"It's all bullshit, I don't think he wants to go anywhere but Montreal, and the Habs ain't giving him 9 mil."

Proof. Drop the offer back down to Dvorak + 2nd

Funny enough, this has been my take all along and I haven't even watched Dangle's podcast yet.

It just feels like all this talk of lists and Dubois giving multiple teams he'll go to is bullshit cropped up by his agent who smacked some sense in Dubois that if he keeps making it so damn obvious Winnipeg won't trade him for the lowball offer Montreal will make.

Or it's Winnipeg themselves bullshiting in hopes they trick us into upping our offer enough they can get something back. My guess is the hold up is Dach. Winnipeg wants him and we've said no. So they're playing the waiting game for as long as they can.

I also can't imagine Hughes wants to give Dubois much more than Caufield or Suzuki. And after Begervin's dumbassery, I'm all for a GM being smart with our contracts.

 

[HABitual Fan]

Lol, like what do you do with a post like this..
I have to repeat again , why do people act like Dubois is 30.. ?:
PLD is 24, Suzuki is 23, Caufield is 22
Suzuki is signed til 31
Caufield signed til 30
And PLD looking to get signed til omfg 32.

It's nice to know that according to you, Suzuki is finished in 3 years, and Cole is finished in 4 years, man that was fast, the f*** are we paying them til 30 for??
So you're right, I guess we should be planning on getting younger talent than those 3, what we're we even thinking??

I never said they will be finished, I said they will be past their prime. The curve tilts downwards at age 24 or 25. Look up the top goal scorers from Ovechkin to Crosby, Jagr to Gretzky and you will see not one of them scored their highest number of goals in a season after age 26.

Here is an article that is from 2014 but pretty much states the same thing

How scoring rates change as players age

In part one of a series on how players age, we look at forward scoring.

www.sbnation.com

it also explains why you want to pay your players till age 30 and not till 33 when they are a shell of themselves for 3 seasons.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

It's rumored he'd take less with a contender. That isn't us.

Which, if true, would make a big mockery of his whole -i wanna play in montreal- schtik.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Funny enough, this has been my take all along and I haven't even watched Dangle's podcast yet.

It just feels like all this talk of lists and Dubois giving multiple teams he'll go to is bullshit cropped up by his agent who smacked some sense in Dubois that if he keeps making it so damn obvious Winnipeg won't trade him for the lowball offer Montreal will make.

Or it's Winnipeg themselves bullshiting in hopes they trick us into upping our offer enough they can get something back. My guess is the hold up is Dach. Winnipeg wants him and we've said no. So they're playing the waiting game for as long as they can.

I also can't imagine Hughes wants to give Dubois much more than Caufield or Suzuki. And after Begervin's dumbassery, I'm all for a GM being smart with our contracts.

Dubois doesn't need 9 mil. Take the AAV around Suzuki and caufield's and be happy with literally every sponsor in Quebec wanting you

 

[Scriptor]

I disagree completely with your analysis. Caufield and Suzuki are being paid for their prime years. PLD is looking for a payday for his post prime years, and his prime years were nothing special to warrant such a salary. Teams more and more are signing their better players long-term right out of the ELC to try to lower the salary for the prime and just after rather than paying them later. Prime for NHL players is historically till age 26.

Prime for NHL players is historically till age 26.

Hilarious take.

By this presumption, short of a limited number of players who are generational or, at least, exceptional, players have a couple of prime years and nothing more, if that.

Suzuki, for example, is currently 23, going on 24 and hasn't reached his prime yet. maybe he has a prime year, by your criteria, before he is done being 26?

Laughable.

Despite what some are trying to portray as a young man's league, players in the NHL tend to reach their prime and play through those prime years between 24/25 and 29/30.

It leaves a 5-6 year prime window, with some performing just as well in their early thirties and others starting to perform that well a little earlier than 24/25.

25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 31, 32, on an 8-year contract, are mostly prime years for Dubois, with years 31 and 32 likely still being strong, contributions to the team's fortunes.

Of course, for Caufield, with the first or first two years maybe not being prime years, the contract is a prime year contract, mostly.

Same for Suzuki.

There is still some growing years, initially, in both those contracts, but both players should be ending their contracts still at their summits.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Hilarious take.

By this presumption, short of a limited number of players who are generational or, at least, exceptional, players have a couple of prime years and nothing more, if that.

Suzuki, for example, is currently 23, going on 24 and hasn't reached his prime yet. maybe he has a prime year, by your criteria, before he is done being 26?

Laughable.

Despite what some are trying to portray as a young man's league, players in the NHL tend to reach their prime and play through those prime years between 24/25 and 29/30.

It leaves a 5-6 year prime window, with some performing just as well in their early thirties and others starting to perform that well a little earlier than 24/25.

25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 31, 32, on an 8-year contract, are mostly prime years for Dubois, with years 31 and 32 likely still being strong, contributions to the team's fortunes.

Of course, for Caufield, with the first or first two years maybe not being prime years, the contract is a prime year contract, mostly.

Same for Suzuki.

There is still some growing years, initially, in both those contracts, but both players should be ending their contracts still at their summits.

I think what the poster you’re quoting is trying to get at is most offensive players peak by their mid 20’s and he’s not wrong. Offensive forwards age out faster then anyone else. Doesn’t mean they can’t still be productive as they get older, but you’re taking a risk the later they get into their 20’s and especially 30’s. That’s what makes Suzuki’s and Caufield’s contracts so attractive. They cover the exact ages you want and you have an out at the right time. We won’t be getting that with Dubois signing 8 years at age 25. The tail end of that contract could be ugly.

 

[Belial]

I think what the poster you’re quoting is trying to get at is most offensive players peak by their mid 20’s and he’s not wrong. Offensive forwards age out faster then anyone else. Doesn’t mean they can’t still be productive as they get older, but you’re taking a risk the later they get into their 20’s and especially 30’s. That’s what makes Suzuki’s and Caufield’s contracts so attractive. They cover the exact ages you want and you have an out at the right time. We won’t be getting that with Dubois signing 8 years at age 25. The tail end of that contract could be ugly.

You'd still get at least 5 years of prime though...

 

[Hostile Offer]

Is this how Rangers fans feel every summer? Because I'm not sure I like it as much as I thought I would

 

[Sorinth]

You make it sound like Dubois is 30 my god lmao
He is 24.
Nick Suzuki is 23.

They both have amazing years to look forward to.

It's irrelevant because it's about where they were at the time that they signed their contract. Suzuki had 2 years in the NHL topped off with a SC run where he looked like he was set to be a #1C so there's a much higher expectation of future growth then a guy who has 7 years in the NHL and whose production has been pretty consistent throughout.

 

[Belial]

It's irrelevant because it's about where they were at the time that they signed their contract. Suzuki had 2 years in the NHL topped off with a SC run where he looked like he was set to be a #1C so there's a much higher expectation of future growth then a guy who has 7 years in the NHL and whose production has been pretty consistent throughout.

Following this logic, Matthews will not get a raise when he signs his next contract?

 

[Sorinth]

It was actually Danault going up against the other teams' top guys. Not that Suzuki was completely insulated. He deserves a lot of credit for being Montreal's top player those playoffs and he didn't go up against a bunch of 3rd-4th line players those playoffs. But it was Danault going up against Matthews, Scheifele, Stephenson & Point and their linemates. And that did create room for Suzuki to be as effective as he was.

Also, when Suzuki was signed, he was a 40-point player with the potential to be a 60-70+ point player and possibly a PPG player down the road. He hit 60 points after he signed his new deal (even though he was still technically in the final year of his ELC).


Regardin PLD plateauing as a 60+ point player, that could be the case. But this past year, he was on pace to have a 30-goal, 71-point season (he had 27 goals and 63 pts in 73 GP). He had a career year last year with 63 pts, but he was on his way to having an even better season, but he missed some time to injury. So he still has room to do even more.

So Suzuki signed as a 40-point player and we are supposed to ignore the fact that it was done in 56 games, but for PLD we always have to add the caveat that his pro-rated production was 71 points. Seems fair.

 

[HuGort]

I'm not moving Dach, Slaf, Guhle or any other core piece for Dubois. And I absolutely consider Slaf a core piece.

If there's no "easy path" to get Dubois then we walk, and give Dach and Suzuki a full season as our 1-2C.

Not out of principle, but because we are still early in the process if rebuilding. We should be opportunistic and patient.

I agree, risk with Dubois, if price too high I would look other areas.

Matheson real good player. I would try find another him. This year's right shot Montour type. Acquire them before they break out. Be my focus

 

[BaseballCoach]

Which, if true, would make a big mockery of his whole -i wanna play in montreal- schtik.

What shtick? One comment by an agent that he would enjoy playing in Montreal if he has the choice? Did he ever say ONLY in Montreal?

Why are we unahppy if this soon to be free agent has Montreal on his list of desirable cities when so many other players do not?

Why would Dubois be obligated to give Montreal a big discount in order to "prove" his sincerity?

This sounds a bit sick.

 

[BaseballCoach]

It's irrelevant because it's about where they were at the time that they signed their contract. Suzuki had 2 years in the NHL topped off with a SC run where he looked like he was set to be a #1C so there's a much higher expectation of future growth then a guy who has 7 years in the NHL and whose production has been pretty consistent throughout.

Suzuki's second season he paced 60 points in the shortened regular season and also 60 points if we include both RS and playoffs (57p in 78g).

Dubois has played six seasons not seven, and has had five good ones, including a first 70 point pace season this past year (67p in 78g).

Suzuki started in the NHL one year older than PLD and has had paced-seasons of, in order, 49, 60, 61 and 66 points. Slight edge to Suzuki but PLD has 11% more goals per game than Nick, who has more assists.

Including leadership and intangibles, I think Suzuki is the slightly better player today, and if Dubois wants 2 years past the age that Suzuki is signed for, I would not give him more $$ than Slick Nick.

But PLD is a solid $7.5M - $7.8M player who can be a top-4 forward on a team, and not a goal-starved totally non-physical and injury-prone player like Jonathan Drouin, which some posters have said.

 

[sampollock]

As I have stated before
PLD may go were the money takes him..
LA seems to be logical

 

[HABitual Fan]

I think what the poster you’re quoting is trying to get at is most offensive players peak by their mid 20’s and he’s not wrong. Offensive forwards age out faster then anyone else. Doesn’t mean they can’t still be productive as they get older, but you’re taking a risk the later they get into their 20’s and especially 30’s. That’s what makes Suzuki’s and Caufield’s contracts so attractive. They cover the exact ages you want and you have an out at the right time. We won’t be getting that with Dubois signing 8 years at age 25. The tail end of that contract could be ugly.

Basically all I am saying is that the claim about buying more UFA years as justification for a higher contract is bogus for a player not coming of his ELC. The more UFA years involved, the more you fall into the category of paying for past performance rather than potential performance. You keep hearing that a player will improve from being a 60 point player at age 25, when the numbers suggest that this is not true. As well RFA years cannot carry NMC/NTC making the player easier to move if you choose to do so,

Lets take a current example that will be resolved shortly, AM in Toronto. He signed his 2nd contract for less than the 8 year term. Two seasons ago he gave the team 60 goals which was probably his peak year, this season he scored 40. The truth of his current ability probably falls between those 2 years for the next couple of years. Do you now pay him as a 60 goal scorer for the next 8 years? If he is willing to sign for 4 or 5 sure, it is worth the salary, if he wants 8 years instead you are paying for much more of his statistically down years.

How scoring rates change as players age

In part one of a series on how players age, we look at forward scoring.

www.sbnation.com

 

[Habs Halifax]

Again, not even close to a comparable.

Not the right range for a 65 point player at all.

What is the right range to you? Seems to me he falls in the mix of these 3. The price to sign a center in their 20's is not cheap bud. Especially at a time where the cap is going to grow.

Hintz:
* 0.79 pts/game over 312 NHL games
* 8x $8.45M.
* $12M in signing bonus (18% of the contract)

Larkin:
* 0.75 pts/game over 584 NHL games
* 8x $8.7M.
* $0M in signing bonus

Horvat:
* 0.67 pts/game over 651 NHL games
* 8x $8.5M.
* $0M in signing bonus

Dubois:
* 0.7 pts/game over 434 NHL games
* 8x $?M.
* $?M in signing bonus

As I have stated before
PLD may go were the money takes him..
LA seems to be logical

Someone will be willing to pay him 8x $8 to $9M range. Heck, maybe all 5 or 6 teams are willing to give him that contract. $9M+? Doubt it.

The road block is what you give in a trade to get him.

Habs and other big market teams can offer signing bonus structure and I'm sure he gets it in his next contract. Habs and LA can do that and not sure who else is on his list.

 

[Belial]

What is the right range to you? Seems to me he falls in the mix of these 3. The price to sign a center in their 20's is not cheap bud. Especially at a time where the cap is going to grow.

Hintz:
* 0.79 pts/game over 312 NHL games
* 8x $8.45M.
* $12M in signing bonus (18% of the contract)

Larkin:
* 0.75 pts/game over 584 NHL games
* 8x $8.7M.
* $0M in signing bonus

Horvat:
* 0.67 pts/game over 651 NHL games
* 8x $8.5M.
* $0M in signing bonus

Dubois:
* 0.7 pts/game over 434 NHL games
* 8x $?M.
* $?M in signing bonus



Someone will be willing to pay him 8x $8 to $9M range. Heck, maybe all 5 or 6 teams are willing to give him that contract. $9M+? Doubt it.

The road block is what you give in a trade to get him.

Habs and other big market teams can offer signing bonus structure and I'm sure he gets it in his next contract. Habs and LA can do that and not sure who else is on his list.

The 9M$ we're hearing is perfectly fine with the market price... I have no idea why so many people are so indignant.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The 9M$ we're hearing is perfectly fine with the market price... I have no idea why so many people are so indignant.

$9M-$9.5M is possible but I think it's slight overpayment.

$8M - $9M range is fair IMO. My guess is he gets Horvat's AAV ($8.5M) but with 50% of the contract paid as signing bonus money.

 

[Belial]

$9M-$9.5M is possible but I think it's slight overpayment.

$8M - $9M range is fair IMO. My guess is he gets Horvat's AAV ($8.5M) but with 50% of the contract paid as signing bonus money.

The real problem is that you have to trade for him on top of paying him.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The real problem is that you have to trade for him on top of paying him.

I'm OK with that as long as we trade from a position of strength like the Romanov+ for Dach trade. Adding the physical center in Dubois is a team need IMO. I think MSL gets him to blossom even more with the Habs.

60-80% sure he comes but 20-40% he don't. My max offer today is Dvorak, Beck, Panthers 1st.