Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[SwiftyHab]

From what i can tell, no one really knows if Winnipeg is trying to compete again next year or, given how many players they expect want out, will actually try a rebuild. Part of that equation is whether the Winnipeg market will tolerate a rebuild.

Until they decide the direction that theyre going, we dont really have a good sense of what pieces they want from us or the other teams. We need Chevy to come out and publicly say what the teams plans are

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Given the amount of rumours that players might wait and see what the cap us jext off season, I'm fine with waiting for him, or someone else next off season.

I retract my stance of acquiring him now

 

[ReginaHabs]

The $9M ask is only part of the problem with what Arpon is reporting. He’s also saying that PLD would accept less money from other teams:

 

[Adam Michaels]

The $9M ask is only part of the problem with what Arpon is reporting. He’s also saying that PLD would accept less money from other teams:

View attachment 716417

That is definitely part of the equation on the PLD acquisition. It's not just a question of what assets it would cost to acquire him via trade, but what kind of contract he would be asking for.

The difference with PLD is that he's not coming off his ELC. This is what Brisson said after the Caufield extension. He was coming off his ELC, just like was the case for Suzuki. Which is why Caufield's deal was slightly less than Nick. They were both in the same situation when their respective new deals kicking in.

However, that would not be the case with PLD. They'd be buying a lot more UFA years. Which is why I think he'll get more than Suzuki. And I'd be okay with that. The question will become: how much more? If he ends up making like $200K-500K more than Suzuki (which would be between $8.075M-8.375M) I won't be upset.

 

[waitin425]

That is definitely part of the equation on the PLD acquisition. It's not just a question of what assets it would cost to acquire him via trade, but what kind of contract he would be asking for.

The difference with PLD is that he's not coming off his ELC. This is what Brisson said after the Caufield extension. He was coming off his ELC, just like was the case for Suzuki. Which is why Caufield's deal was slightly less than Nick. They were both in the same situation when their respective new deals kicking in.

However, that would not be the case with PLD. They'd be buying a lot more UFA years. Which is why I think he'll get more than Suzuki. And I'd be okay with that. The question will become: how much more? If he ends up making like $200K-500K more than Suzuki (which would be between $8.075M-8.375M) I won't be upset.

It's petty on my part, but I set the limit at 8 million. By all accounts he has his sights set on us. If he wants to come home and let's say Boston offers him 300-500K more per year than 8 million and he takes that.... than he really doesn't want to come home.

I know the tax thing is huge, but for PLD and his advisors, coming home to Montreal on an 8 year deal with a respectable salary will serve a few purposes financially. First off it will make the fans very happy. Happy Habs fans = more endorsment opportunity.

Say hello to your new St Hubert Chicken Man!

 

[SwiftyHab]

That is definitely part of the equation on the PLD acquisition. It's not just a question of what assets it would cost to acquire him via trade, but what kind of contract he would be asking for.

The difference with PLD is that he's not coming off his ELC. This is what Brisson said after the Caufield extension. He was coming off his ELC, just like was the case for Suzuki. Which is why Caufield's deal was slightly less than Nick. They were both in the same situation when their respective new deals kicking in.

However, that would not be the case with PLD. They'd be buying a lot more UFA years. Which is why I think he'll get more than Suzuki. And I'd be okay with that. The question will become: how much more? If he ends up making like $200K-500K more than Suzuki (which would be between $8.075M-8.375M) I won't be upset.

Hugo would do well to suggest that PLD shouldn't want to hold the title of highest paid player on the team and accept a Caufield-like contract. Media spotlight will already be intense. if he accepts a team-friendly albeit still lucrative contract, he builds a lot of goodwill that he can lean on when times inevitably get tough

 

[Adam Michaels]

It's petty on my part, but I set the limit at 8 million. By all accounts he has his sights set on us. If he wants to come home and let's say Boston offers him 300-500K more per year than 8 million and he takes that.... than he really doesn't want to come home.

I know the tax thing is huge, but for PLD and his advisors, coming home to Montreal on an 8 year deal with a respectable salary will serve a few purposes financially. First off it will make the fans very happy. Happy Habs fans = more endorsment opportunity.

Say hello to your new St Hubert Chicken Man!

View attachment 716434

I don't think that if he signs with another team it's because he never really wanted to come here. We need to keep in mind, even if he wants to play for the Habs, it doesn't mean he's not open to going to other teams. It's not Montreal or bust.

And it should also not be ignored that even if he comes here and signs long term, that if he doesn't take a home town discount that it means he's a mercenary or only cared about the money. A player does want to maximize his value.

For me, even if he signs for a little over $8M, I'm good.

As for the taxes and all that, there is always a way around that. He can make that money up in sponsorships (ads, commercials, etc.)

 

[WeThreeKings]

The issue isn't really the contract and term, it's the contract and term PLUS the fact that there's 4-5 other teams bidding on acquiring him.

Those teams are more likely further along in their competitive window, so they can throw more assets out to make it happen.

The combination of everything now makes it less likely we get Dubois and if we do, the acquisition cost plus term/money turns it away from being a good opportunity cost (like Dach) and potentially a poison pill.

They should pivot to CBJ and try to get Boqvist for cheap.

 

[26Mats]

Bringing up what markets he’s played for is an excuse. He’s not the only player on planet earth to get drafted or play for those two teams. What he’s doing right now with Winnipeg is ridiculous. And what he did to force a trade with Columbus was just as embarrassing. If we acquire him, it’s just a matter of time before he’s crying about the tabloids.

So you wouldn't want to acquire Matthew Tkachuk?

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

That is definitely part of the equation on the PLD acquisition. It's not just a question of what assets it would cost to acquire him via trade, but what kind of contract he would be asking for.

The difference with PLD is that he's not coming off his ELC. This is what Brisson said after the Caufield extension. He was coming off his ELC, just like was the case for Suzuki. Which is why Caufield's deal was slightly less than Nick. They were both in the same situation when their respective new deals kicking in.

However, that would not be the case with PLD. They'd be buying a lot more UFA years. Which is why I think he'll get more than Suzuki. And I'd be okay with that. The question will become: how much more? If he ends up making like $200K-500K more than Suzuki (which would be between $8.075M-8.375M) I won't be upset.

The salary cap is expected to increase by 10 M in two years. An 8 M contract today will basically be equivalent to a 9 M contract in a couple of seasons.

 

[MXD]

Giving assets for the "privilege" of paying Dubois 9M/yr seems a little counter-productive.

 

[waitin425]

Hugo would do well to suggest that PLD shouldn't want to hold the title of highest paid player on the team and accept a Caufield-like contract. Media spotlight will already be intense. if he accepts a team-friendly albeit still lucrative contract, he builds a lot of goodwill that he can lean on when times inevitably get tough

Exactly what I was trying to say as well! Leads to sponsorships like.....

 

[Adam Michaels]

The salary cap is expected to increase by 10 M in two years. An 8 M contract today will basically be equivalent to a 9 M contract in a couple of seasons.

I didn't mention it in my post, but that is a big reason why I think that if PLD signs for more than Suzuki isn't a big deal.

In my world, if he makes at most $500K more than Suzuki ($8.375M AAV), you're still getting PLD at a good deal considering you're buying a lot more UFA years from him than you did for Suzuki and Caufield.

 

[26Mats]

I don't understand what you're asking here.

Are you really asking if doing it twice is different than doing it once?

Yes, it's enormously different.

And he's done it three times, going back to Junior.

Once is once, three times is a pattern.

Once isn't by accident when it's intentional. Matthew Tkachuk intentionally asked out of Calgary, to specific cities. Not sure if Dubois had been moved from Columbus to a city of his choice he'd want out again.

Anyways, we know Hughes is interested.

 

[MXD]

In my world, if he makes at most $500K more than Suzuki ($8.375M AAV), you're still getting PLD at a good deal considering you're buying a lot more UFA years from him than you did for Suzuki and Caufield.

Still, that deal isn't in any way team-friendly (it's not awful either). Which wouldn't be much of an issue IF we wouldn't also have to give assets for the privilege to sign that deal.

 

[Adam Michaels]

The issue isn't really the contract and term, it's the contract and term PLUS the fact that there's 4-5 other teams bidding on acquiring him.

Those teams are more likely further along in their competitive window, so they can throw more assets out to make it happen.

The combination of everything now makes it less likely we get Dubois and if we do, the acquisition cost plus term/money turns it away from being a good opportunity cost (like Dach) and potentially a poison pill.

They should pivot to CBJ and try to get Boqvist for cheap.

Boqvist would definitely be someone I'd target. Considering they just got an RD in Severson, have an RD in Jiricek, who should be in the NHL next year, and they also still have a vet RD like Gudbranson and also have Andrew Peeke who is a right shot defenseman (but also plays LD).

 

[JoelWarlord]

Bringing up what markets he’s played for is an excuse.

No it's not? He has repeatedly said/leaked/implied that he wants to play in a bigger city and there's been continuous talk from beat writers in Columbus and Winnipeg that part of his reason for wanting to leave those teams is because there's other interests outside of hockey and he wants to live somewhere with some culture and/or outdoor recreation. If he wants to play in a bigger city with some culture and got traded from Columbus to Winnipeg it is not some nefarious mystery that he also does not want to sign long term in Winnipeg lol.

He’s not the only player on planet earth to get drafted or play for those two teams.

Great, that doesn't mean it's a character flaw that he didn't want to play there.

What he’s doing right now with Winnipeg is ridiculous.

Telling them a year in advance that he won't sign as a UFA, and giving them a list of teams he would sign long term with so they have a chance to get a return for him is ridiculous? He has the right to hit unrestricted free agency in a year and is being upfront about his wishes and using that as leverage to pick his spot a year early while giving Winnipeg certainty on their path forward. Tkachuk just did the exact same thing, he gave Calgary a list of 5 or 6 teams he would sign with.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Still, that deal isn't in any way team-friendly (it's not awful either). Which wouldn't be much of an issue IF we wouldn't also have to give assets for the privilege to sign that deal.

In my opinion, I think 7-8 years @ $8.375M is team friendly. It's not a hometown discount and I don't think anyone should be expecting that. But it's not a number that would handcuff Montreal by any means. And it's not a lot more than Caufield and Suzuki. With the cap expected to go up a lot over the next few years, that is not a deal that will hurt them.

As for the assets to give in a potential trade, for a team that has a lot of assets to give, they can afford to part ways with one or two. They won't empty the cupboards to get him.

Fans weren't happy when Habs traded Romanov and picks last year in order to acquire Dach. 12 months later, I don't think anyone is bemoaning Romanov's or those picks' departures.

 

[BLONG7]

From what i can tell, no one really knows if Winnipeg is trying to compete again next year or, given how many players they expect want out, will actually try a rebuild. Part of that equation is whether the Winnipeg market will tolerate a rebuild.

Until they decide the direction that theyre going, we dont really have a good sense of what pieces they want from us or the other teams. We need Chevy to come out and publicly say what the teams plans are

If Chevy trades Hellybuck, then we know they are starting their rebuild.

 

[Jack Skellington]

In my opinion, I think 7-8 years @ $8.375M is team friendly. It's not a hometown discount and I don't think anyone should be expecting that. But it's not a number that would handcuff Montreal by any means. And it's not a lot more than Caufield and Suzuki. With the cap expected to go up a lot over the next few years, that is not a deal that will hurt them.

As for the assets to give in a potential trade, for a team that has a lot of assets to give, they can afford to part ways with one or two. They won't empty the cupboards to get him.

Fans weren't happy when Habs traded Romanov and picks last year in order to acquire Dach. 12 months later, I don't think anyone is bemoaning Romanov's or those picks' departures.

People weren't happy about the Romanov trade? I was ecstatic and the fans all went nuts when they announced it at the draft.

 

[MXD]

Fans weren't happy when Habs traded Romanov and picks last year in order to acquire Dach. 12 months later, I don't think anyone is bemoaning Romanov's or those picks' departures.

That has more to do with Xhecaj and Guhle surpassing expectations. Well not so much Guhle, but Xhecaj certainly. And Romanov was an LD. And also a "determined" asset, in that we don't know what could be given for Dubois.

I wouldn't have much problem with a trade sending a combination of two of Kidney, Struble and Mesar to Winnipeg. I'd have much bigger issues with one sending a combination of two of Roy, Beck, Hutson and Mailloux.

 

[Adam Michaels]

People weren't happy about the Romanov trade? I was ecstatic and the fans all went nuts when they announced it at the draft.

You look back and you see a lot of fans were upset Habs traded Romanov. And more upset that they took Dach (who they deemed was a bust at 3rd OA).

The fans in attendance cheered when they heard they got Dach. But if you look back here, on Twitter, and some fans who posted their reactions on YT, many of them were not happy they traded Romanov, who many deemed as one of the untouchables.

 

[MXD]

People weren't happy about the Romanov trade? I was ecstatic and the fans all went nuts when they announced it at the draft.

I didn't like it THAT much personally, but he org knew something about Xhecaj that I didn't quite know.

 

[WeThreeKings]

People weren't happy about the Romanov trade? I was ecstatic and the fans all went nuts when they announced it at the draft.

They were not.

"Dach sucks"
"Dach's wrist is toast"

 

[Adam Michaels]

That has more to do with Xhecaj and Guhle surpassing expectations. Well not so much Guhle, but Xhecaj certainly. And Romanov was an LD. And also a "determined" asset, in that we don't know what could be given for Dubois.

I wouldn't have much problem with a trade sending a combination of two of Kidney, Struble and Mesar to Winnipeg. I'd have much bigger issues with one sending a combination of two of Roy, Beck, Hutson and Mailloux.

Habs won't send two prime assets to the Jets. Rest easy on that one.

Expect a roster player, a draft pick, and a prospect.