Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[Habs Halifax]

The insightfulness of the post is based on the time-frame of its approach. We are at least two years from being competitive. The acquisition of any high priced player while we are acquiring additional young assets and shedding bloated unproductive contracts would be counterproductive. The timing of acquiring key free agent players is truly an important facet of the art of team building. In this writer’s opinion, this is not the time to plunge into the free agency market nor is Dubois the player I would get ‘wet’ for.

The ability to add a player like Dubois either through trade or UFA is all about timing. Lets not pretend young pieces like this become available all the time and when they do, they want to sign with the Habs.

You can claim others have a blind spot in their line of thinking but there is also one with yours.

I do agree with timing is a key strategy but how we comprehend that timing narrative is slightly different.

 

[MTL-rules]

The thing is the habs is in need of an elite player, or two.

You get that from the top of the draft.

Unless you draft Slafkovsky

 

[SlafySZN]

Unless you draft Slafkovsky

What’s with bashing this kid? He barely played 39 NHL games.

Some lack patience.

 

[Habs Halifax]

If the Avs offer that package he's theirs (and the Jets should throw him in a car and rush him to the airport). To match or beat that would be Fla 1st, Dach and Harris.

I think Girard is overrated. He brings some value yes but he doesn't really turn the offensive needle and he's OK in his own end. Value contract? I don't think so. I think he's paid fairly for what he brings. Regardless, Girard is a good NHL contract and someone who fills a top 4 hole. However, it's another LD that the Jets may not need and they do have Morrisey so they may not want Girard.

Dach > Newhook. Dach's ability to carry the puck and deal with contact is much better. I like Newhook but he's a middle 6F who is not really a center. We don't need to add Dach to beat that offer. How much better is Newhook over Gurianov? Newhook is surely going to get a raise and does he get close to the $2.9M cap hit Gurianov has today?

It would be a good attempt by the Avs though. I guess how we attempt to beat an offer like that depends on the Jets direction. Are they looking for two bodies like Girard and Newhook or are they looking for more futures instead?

 

[nhlfan9191]

The ability to add a player like Dubois either through trade or UFA is all about timing. Lets not pretend young pieces like this become available all the time and when they do, they want to sign with the Habs.

You can claim others have a blind spot in their line of thinking but there is also one with yours.

I do agree with timing is a key strategy but how we comprehend that timing narrative is slightly different.

It’s hard to speculate on what’s going to happen with Dubois until we see what happens with his next contract. If we buy him as an unsigned RFA with a year left, we give Winnipeg some leverage in a trade. If we let Dubois do what we all think he’s going to do which is play hardball for a one year deal, the ball comes into our court completely once they’re forced to sign him. If Winnipeg trade him somewhere else if they can’t get a contract done they find reasonable, then it gets interesting. There’s a lot of things that have to go right for fans to end up being pleased with any deal that involves inquiring him before he hits UFA. And everyone agreeing on a contract that’s fair would be the next step.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

I think Girard is overrated. He brings some value yes but he doesn't really turn the offensive needle and he's OK in his own end. Value contract? I don't think so. I think he's paid fairly for what he brings. Regardless, Girard is a good NHL contract and someone who fills a top 4 hole. However, it's another LD that the Jets may not need and they do have Morrisey so they may not want Girard.

Dach > Newhook. Dach's ability to carry the puck and deal with contact is much better. I like Newhook but he's a middle 6F who is not really a center. We don't need to add Dach to beat that offer. How much better is Newhook over Gurianov? Newhook is surely going to get a raise and does he get close to the $2.9M cap hit Gurianov has today?

It would be a good attempt by the Avs though. I guess how we attempt to beat an offer like that depends on the Jets direction. Are they looking for two bodies like Girard and Newhook or are they looking for more futures instead?

Newhook has similar potential as Dach. He should be as good as his former teammate Boldy.. And Newhook is much more talented than Gurianov. The wild card is Bednar. Prospect forwards do not develop well under him.
And that is why I said that the only centre hab have that matches a Newhook offer is Dach. Of course I would never trade Dach.

 

[Habs Halifax]

It’s hard to speculate on what’s going to happen with Dubois until we see what happens with his next contract. If we buy him as an unsigned RFA with a year left, we give Winnipeg some leverage in a trade. If we let Dubois do what we all think he’s going to do which is play hardball for a one year deal, the ball comes into our court completely once they’re forced to sign him. If Winnipeg trade him somewhere else if they can’t get a contract done they find reasonable, then it gets interesting. There’s a lot of things that have to go right for fans to end up being pleased with any deal that involves inquiring him before he hits UFA. And everyone agreeing on a contract that’s fair would be the next step.

Dam straight it's difficult to speculate but that's what we do as fans. I enjoy the Dubois conversations cause the Habs don't get many opportunities like this.

Personally, I want nothing to do with trading for him without a contract in place. My interest is high but only if the contract is fair. No way I trade for him not knowing what he will ask for on his next 8 year deal. I want a cap hit around Suzuki so if he really wants to come home, lets pay him fairly but not a max deal where he comes with pressure/expectations to carry the team. Bad idea IMO.

Other teams will no doubt knock on the door but I see them playing the same strategy. If they are trading valuable futures, they will want the sign/trade. How many teams ignore the season past next year and use him for just one year while trading futures for a full season rental? Always aggressive GM's out there but it's not dime a dozen type narrative. Then you wonder what their cap structure is.

I think Dubois wanting out of Columbus and not willing to sign long term with the Jets who are a good team is a big factor for many other GM's who may or may not be interested in getting into trade talk with the Jets.

Newhook has similar potential as Dach. He should be as good as his former teammate Boldy.. And Newhook is much more talented than Gurianov. The wild card is Bednar. Prospect forwards do not develop well under him.
And that is why I said that the only centre hab have that matches a Newhook offer is Dach. Of course I would never trade Dach.

I don't agree. I have watched Newhook play a fair amount. Dach's play with the Habs this year is more value and the area that stands out the most is Dach's ability to be a puch possession type and also deal with physical contract. Points come and go but puck possession forwards are not easy to acquire.

Newhook is a middle 6F and Dach is a top 6F rising up quickly. Newhook on the Habs would not look any more impressive than what you see from Gurianov.

I'm disappointed with Newhook's development. I was high on him on draft day. To me, he's clearly tracking to be a middle 6F type at best. I bet you the Jets see it the same.

 

[ole ole]

Here's my attempt at a single thread to discuss PLD so he doesn't take over every single other thread.
Consider this like a safe space. A trust tree if you will -a place where we can ask questions like:

• Does he really want to come here or is he just saying he does?
• Should we? or Shouldn't we? at what price? and when should we?
• is he too old?
• Is he worth the price to trade for him? Is he worth the price to sign him?
• Who is he good friends with on the Habs?
• Is he better than Dach?

Bonne chance mes amies!

With a long term agreement in place. I have no problem in offering up Panthers 1st, a prospect [ not named Lane, Mallioux or Roy ] and Dvorak . We have many prospects that giving one up doesn't hurt.
So having our 1st and Dubois added to our team is not a bad thing.

 

[Adam Michaels]

So now that Farrell is signed, do we trade him for PLD?

 

[SwiftyHab]

So now that Farrell is signed, do we trade him for PLD?

Of course! Farrell, Ryder and a 2nd.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Of course! Farrell, Ryder and a 2nd.

Unprotected 2nd.

 

[ole ole]

So now that Farrell is signed, do we trade him for PLD?

Today i would trade the Panthers 1st ,Dvorak and Farrell for PLD with an agreement to a long team contract in place.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Today i would trade the Panthers 1st ,Dvorak and Farrell for PLD with an agreement to a long team contract in place.

Not me. Farrell would replace a first. Or include a lesser prospect or Harris or Evans.

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

The issue with solely building through drafting is that the Habs’ roster is no longer bad enough for such a long game approach; if only because of what turn out to be two homeruns last summer: Dach and Matheson.

With or without Dubois, unless the Habs experienced a third consecutive record-setting injury-plagued season, Montreal’s likely heading into no man’s land territory draft-wise as soon as next season.

Also, the Habs need to shelter and optimise the development of the many U23 already on - or projected into next’s year - roster. Leveraging draft/prospect capital for a core piece like Dubois can help in that regard.

Whereas solely drafting doesn’t help at all during crucial core building years; especially with the underwhelming quality of complementary forwards surround the young core at the moment (Gallagher, Hoffman, Dvorak, Armia, Pitlick).

I agree with this approach. While the person you are quoting has a point with regards to Dubois being a guy who "doesn’t elevate others and with suspect character", I would bet on him in a Habs jersey being what he needs to be more of a difference maker. Since like you said we are running out of time for the proverbial "build through the draft", it's time to take some risks.

Stay away from Dubois. A 60-70 point player that doesn’t elevate others and with suspect character doesn’t move the needle and contributes to us being mediocre long term. No more shortcuts. Keep our picks and build through the draft.

Can you share your strategy? When you break down the roster, how many more years of high draft picks do you see coming? Do you find value in players drafted in the 10-20s to be useful to the Habs in how many years?

Are you simply against Dubois since he's a player you really don't like? I find his on ice play to be very good and if he cared every game that would be an even better person. I agree that he has a past that is weighing on him, but why would he want to come to Montreal to be a part of a continuously losing franchise where all eyes would be on him? I have a hard time believing he will come here just to pack it in.

 

[Scriptor]

Yeah but i’m not asking for Bedard necessarily, that’s almost once in a life time chance.

but yes a Fantilli is an elite/superstar player. A player like Macklin Celebrini for the 2024 draft will be an elite one too i think. We miss one or two of that.

I'll take all the talent we can get, but I believe we can still build a regular Cup contender with top-9 talented depth and no one player that dramatically stands out above the better players on the team.

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

Not me. Farrell would replace a first. Or include a lesser prospect or Harris or Evans.

Are you high on Farrell?

 

[Scriptor]

Not me. Farrell would replace a first. Or include a lesser prospect or Harris or Evans.

My point exactly. After the 2023 draft, the highest projectable 1st round pick owned by the Habs in the foreseeable future just might be… Calgary’s 2025 1st!

It’s won’t necessarily be impossible to draft elite players beyond the top-10 in 2024 or 2025, but the Habs should definitely have a balanced approach and explore leveraging a few of their upcoming picks for talent.

Last summer is a good example of said balanced approach : the Habs use one first round pick on a potential top-6 winger with size and leveraged the other in the Dach trade to steal a top-6 center from Chicago.

Likewise, this summer, another young center with talent, size and grit - picked 3rd overall as well - is available. The package required won’t be as cheap as Dach, but the Habs pulling the trigger on Dubois instead of picking #15 fits their core - and your narrative.

Last year, Montreal acquired a Thord 1st round pick by trading Romanov. In the end, they used their highest pick (1st OA) to draft Slafkovsky, the 13th OA they acquired from the NYIs to snatch upon Dach from CHI and used their second 1st round pick acquired in the Toffoli draft, to acquire Mesar nearer to the end of the 1st round (26th OA)

This year, Hughes was on record as looking for another first round pick in 2023. So far, given the injury context the Habs were involved in, Hughes has not, as of yet, acquired his third 1st round pick like last year. However, there is still time for that to happen on the draft floor as had happened with the Romanov trade.

With a third 1st round pick, I'm 99% certain that Hughes would pick with disown 1st round again, use the mid first round pick as part of a package in an attempt to land Dubois and, once more, use his 3rd 1st round pick to draft a second prospect, likely a RHD with top-4 upside.

The offseason will be exciting for Hab fans. Draft Day, while not in Montreal this time, can still be a big day for Hughes and the Habs.

GO HABS GO!

Good grief, people don't want him so you paint it as hate? Seriously WTF. I don't want him because I don't think he is a difference maker, and I think he has suspect character. Nothing to do with hate.

Your reaction hints otherwise, but I'll take your word for it.

IMO, if you believe it doesn't apply to you, you don't take offense to the statement, but what do I know...

 

[CHwest]

Last year, Montreal acquired a Thord 1st round pick by trading Romanov. In the end, they used their highest pick (1st OA) to draft Slafkovsky, the 13th OA they acquired from the NYIs to snatch upon Dach from CHI and used their second 1st round pick acquired in the Toffoli draft, to acquire Mesar nearer to the end of the 1st round (26th OA)

This year, Hughes was on record as looking for another first round pick in 2023. So far, given the injury context the Habs were involved in, Hughes has not, as of yet, acquired his third 1st round pick like last year. However, there is still time for that to happen on the draft floor as had happened with the Romanov trade.

With a third 1st round pick, I'm 99% certain that Hughes would pick with disown 1st round again, use the mid first round pick as part of a package in an attempt to land Dubois and, once more, use his 3rd 1st round pick to draft a second prospect, likely a RHD with top-4 upside.

The offseason will be exciting for Hab fans. Draft Day, while not in Montreal this time, can still be a big day for Hughes and the Habs.

GO HABS GO!


Your reaction hints otherwise, but I'll take your word for it.

IMO, if you believe it doesn't apply to you, you don't take offense to the statement, but what do I know...

Oh boy, one of those people.

 

[salbutera]

Wonder if HuGo would deal Matheson for a 1st then use that + Fla’s as collateral in separate deals to acquire PLD & a goalie (Hart)

 

[JRichard]

Wonder if HuGo would deal Matheson for a 1st then use that + Fla’s as collateral in separate deals to acquire PLD & a goalie (Hart)

You expect to get PLD and Hart for Matheson and Fla 1st around 15th?

 

[BaseballCoach]

Wonder if HuGo would deal Matheson for a 1st then use that + Fla’s as collateral in separate deals to acquire PLD & a goalie (Hart)

Matheson for a first? How high up?

 

[Scriptor]

So if we don't want to pay Dubois 8-9m x7-8years, we hate him? Come on now. I want the Habs to acquire him but everyone has the right to an opinion. There's clearly some question mark with Dubois.

If the statement isn't directed at you, don't take offense.

Personally, when I see posts which suggest that Dubois will want 9M - 10M, as I've seen creep up, or that we will give up the moon, the stars and the sun to get him, all in order to diminish the interest for the player, or the credibility of those suggesting we try to trade for him, there's obviously some other motivation than an honest assessment of the player.

The same goes for the language about him being or amounting to nothing more than he is as a just a 24-yr old, like suggestions to acquire Dubois were tantamount to saying, "Let's get that over-the-hill 32-yr-old from Quebec to please the fans."

It's bad faith arguments to devalue the player and, unfortunately, that doesn't happen from someone who is neutral about the player, or remotely objective.

The worst are the posts spitting, "If he's honest about wanting to be a Hab, he'll wait until he is an UFA and sign with Montreal then," like venom, where the kid should just suck it up and take one for the team if he wants us to believe he deserves to play here.

I honestly wonder what planet those posters are from. Either they are alien to the human race, or they are motivated by other thoughts than an honest assessment of the player.

It's not a question of not having the same opinion. It's a dishonest approach to expressing why they don't want Dubois.

If ChWest's take was simply, "I don't think he is a difference maker and I think he has character issues, why would I characterize that as hate?

I'd definitely try to explain why I believe he has already been a difference maker in past playoffs and why I think he can grow to be a consistent difference maker, because I don't agree, and I will definitely explain why I have no fears about his attitude, because Tortorella and his public humiliation is, to me, a justifiable reason to ask for a trade and, for someone starting a family, not wanting to start it in Winnipeg is also a justifiable feeling, but someone that simply disagrees won't, automatically for me, be a hater.

 

[salbutera]

You expect to get PLD and Hart for Matheson and Fla 1st around 15th?

No PLD for a package of Fla 1st + Harris + pick / prospect

And

Hart for the 1st from Matheson deal + prospect + Dikembe

Keep in mind Hart enters his UFA season resulting in lower market price vs PLD

Matheson for a first? How high up?

Late teens / early 20s - likely a team that has a disappointing season / playoffs

 

[BaseballCoach]

(matheson for what kind of pick)

Late teens / early 20s - likely a team that has a disappointing season / playoffs

No way. Are you a Flyers fan?

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

You expect to get PLD and Hart for Matheson and Fla 1st around 15th?

That would be fun but ouch losing Matheson