Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[BaseballCoach]

He in no way instantly becomes our best forward.

I agree but he is still worth getting.

 

[CHwest]

I agree but he is still worth getting.

At the right price.

 

[BaseballCoach]

At the right price.

Always. In my opinion, the right price is around Suzuki's contract.

 

[Guy Larose]

There's an even weirder thing where posters like yourself try to start a fight for no reason.

I literally said "looking at their depth chart". If you wanna keep putting Harris in PLD deals then go for it.

I'm simply trying to add a tiny bit of nuance to the conversation.

Nah, it's everywhere on here...and not hard to see when you see things like "Jets fans are pretty adamant that they don't want or need a LHD"....and then "looking at their depth chart it does seem like they would prefer a prospect at any other position"....I mean, pretty clear. Just stating facts. Go on the main boards and it's everywhere as well. Fans act like they're GMs while eating Cheetos on their couch.

 

[Naslundforever]

« … Fans act like they're GMs while eating Cheetos on their couch. »

oops I feel I may have been wasting my time these last 50 years then

edit - also Slaf was rushed and habs will regret Romanov.

PLD.

 

[Runner77]

Nah, it's everywhere on here...and not hard to see when you see things like "Jets fans are pretty adamant that they don't want or need a LHD".... Go on the main boards and it's everywhere as well. Fans act like they're GMs while eating Cheetos on their couch.

Meantime, somewhere in the Peg, a Jets fan ...

It's not limited to Jets fans of course but there is a fan prototype that you can find across the board in any fan base, regardless of sport.

It also goes without saying that most Peg fans have a canvas oil painting of their favorite, can-do-no-wrong player, on their walls.

 

[rahad]

Why would you give up a single asset for a player you can get for nothing next year unless you think he is the missing piece to a cup run?

Patience people!

Get for nothing? He can also sign with another team. You honestly believe habs are the only team that want Dubois or that Dubois ONLY want to play for Habs?

Florida first + Hoffman/Dvorak should be enough.

 

[Rapala]

Get for nothing? He can also sign with another team. You honestly believe habs are the only team that want Dubois or that Dubois ONLY want to play for Habs?

Florida first + Hoffman/Dvorak should be enough.

A guy lying in his bed Hoffman and a first do not address Winnipeg's immediate needs. Chevy will play Dubois and flip him at TDL and see far more value in that for his club. Dubois is very likely to be the prize at TDL next season. We wouldn't give that up for such a meager package and neither will they.

 

[ML16]

Interesting to see a 40/52/8 split in voting so far.

* Saying no to either traded for him or signing him as a UFA is silly IMO. It won't be easy to add a physical center like that who can put up Suzuki production and is good in many areas that easy.

* Trade has to make sense if we go down that road. We have to trade from a position of strength like we did in the Dach trade.

* Waiting for him to be UFA is leading by a slight advantage. That's what makes this discussion so interesting.

It's just not black/white. And especially for us Fans who have come to find out lots of context but we still don't have all the information.

The area I ponder about is if we get Bedard and we do sign/trade for Dubois, how does your roster look next year? Where do you fit in guys like Slaf, Farrell, Heineman, Armia, Gallagher. Ideally, I like having Armia in the Dubois package and we flip Eddy at 50% retention to a contender for a 2nd round+ return on draft day as well. We did save one retention spot that would expire in July and using that before July is of value because then we get our 3 retention spots back for next season.

Indeed, I’d be curious to see the results if the question was asked differently. Adding Dubois - or any other talented U25 top-6 player, actually - is self-evidently a good thing. The crux of the matter is rather what’s the price tag one is willing to pay to acquire said talented player.

The availability of Dubois this offseason will be highly tributary of the Jets’ decision in regards to their current core. Under the assumption that Dubois is resolutely heading for UFA in 2024, they should reasonably consider a package that would help keep their roster competitive in order to convince Scheifele and Helkeybuyck to stay; or, less likely, futures to trigger their own retool/rebuild.

From the Habs’ perspective, under the assumption Dubois would agree to reasonable terms (8 or 8.5M AAV x 8 years), it is also logical* to offer a package in 2023 rather take the risky but highly rewarding approach of waiting for 2024 to have Dubois’ cake and eat it too. *The Habs would then secure a top-6 player that fits their core and likely save 1-2M AAV by acquiring Dubois before the upcoming cap readjustment. Also, 2023-2024 is a crucial development year for the young forwards (2023 1st; Slafkovsky, etc.) and Dubois on the Habs’ top-6 at the beginning of that season can greatly optimise this process.

So alternative survey questions could go along the lines of:

1. How much the certainty and incentives of having Dubois one season sooner are worth to the Habs?

2. Which combination of expendable Habs’ assets can reasonably be bundled in a package that would fit the Jets’ needs.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

The insightfulness of the post is based on the time-frame of its approach. We are at least two years from being competitive. The acquisition of any high priced player while we are acquiring additional young assets and shedding bloated unproductive contracts would be counterproductive. The timing of acquiring key free agent players is truly an important facet of the art of team building. In this writer’s opinion, this is not the time to plunge into the free agency market nor is Dubois the player I would get ‘wet’ for.

Amen.

 

[BaseballCoach]

The insightfulness of the post is based on the time-frame of its approach. We are at least two years from being competitive. The acquisition of any high priced player while we are acquiring additional young assets and shedding bloated unproductive contracts would be counterproductive. The timing of acquiring key free agent players is truly an important facet of the art of team building. In this writer’s opinion, this is not the time to plunge into the free agency market nor is Dubois the player I would get ‘wet’ for.

Dubois is a building block. He should not be overpaid, but a trade when he is one year from UFA is probably not a very expensive trade compared to trying to acquire a building block that is secure somewhere.

 

[G0bias]

Do you think there is any truth to the idea that signing or trading for Dubois will not be taken well by Dach/Suzuki?

Almost like a message to them that management doesn't have faith in them at C?

Dach is starting to emerge as the top flight center he was touted as since juniors. Pretty clear he stays there.

Meanwhile Dubois has history of playing wing, his type of game also translates better on the wing. His physicality and nose for the net would in fact be a great compliment to either one of Dach or Suzuki.

 

[habsfan44]

Here's my attempt at a single thread to discuss PLD so he doesn't take over every single other thread.
Consider this like a safe space. A trust tree if you will -a place where we can ask questions like:

• Does he really want to come here or is he just saying he does?
• Should we? or Shouldn't we? at what price? and when should we?
• is he too old?
• Is he worth the price to trade for him? Is he worth the price to sign him?
• Who is he good friends with on the Habs?
• Is he better than Dach?

Bonne chance mes amies!

Twenty-five year old 60 point center already making $6 million a year who is a pending RFA and will be looking to get paid either this year or next year as a UFA ? We already have our big center .

Two goals and two assists in past 14 games

If he can maintain that pace he would surpass his career high of 61 points .

 

[Scriptor]

The insightfulness of the post is based on the time-frame of its approach. We are at least two years from being competitive. The acquisition of any high priced player while we are acquiring additional young assets and shedding bloated unproductive contracts would be counterproductive. The timing of acquiring key free agent players is truly an important facet of the art of team building. In this writer’s opinion, this is not the time to plunge into the free agency market nor is Dubois the player I would get ‘wet’ for.

The timing you suggest is wrong appears to be more about not getting 'wet' for Dubois than the timing itself and, that, IMO, is a personal thing that is entirely okay to feel or experience.

You don't need to be interested in a player like Dubois, for whatever reason, but I disagree that the timing to add a high priced player is necessarily wrong in as long as the player acquired is skilled enough and fits the age requirement to become part of the young core.

The timing is entirely wrong to acquire ageing UFAs as though we were one or two players away from contending, but not as a limited, team building exercise for the long run, IMHO.

You take talent for the long term when and where you can get it, IMO.

I find the reasoning a bit funny in this sense:

If Slafkovsky were ending his ELC today and producing 60+ points on multiple years of that ELC, would you refuse to sign Slafkovsky long term à la Suzuki?

Adding Dubois, who fits the age bracket to be considered part of the young core, who will be in his prime years throughout an 8-year deal, would be no different than paying up for a youngster already on the team to ensure you are holding on to your young core over the long haul.

It's the same weird reasoning where people would refuse to give a later first round pick for Dubois, who is still young to be part of the young core, on the off chance that the player drafted would be one of the rare ones who eventually becomes as good as Dubois.

In the 'not a good timing to add an UFA' example, the misperception is that it's like a situation where the UFA would be 29, 30 or 31, where the Cap hit would be too high and too long for the player's value on the ice.

With Dubois, that is not at all the case.

In the 'I wouldn't give a mid first round or later pick for Dubois' argument, you are giving up a developed player entering his prime at 24 years of age for a lottery ticket with lots and lots of hope that the player picked, in

I am trying to figure out the last time a player was brought in of this magnitude that actually panned out. I mean a guy you sign for 7/8 years, not something like a Dach trade which was very low risk.
I just don't know if Dubois is the solution.


Sorry but why would Winnipeg be remotely interested in Christian Dvorak?

"I just don't know if Dubois is the solution."

The second we stop evaluating players as saviours, like one player can and should solve everything, that's when we will start evaluating the players and their potential impact on the team properly.

Hockey is a team sport and the superior skills of players like Matthews, Nylander, McDavid and Draisaitl, just to name a few, when taken within the team reality of hockey, prove that saviours, alone, can't pull off the miracles we expect of them.

Dubois will help strengthen the young core as a physical, 200-ft C entering his prime. I expect him to expand on his current production level to between 70 points and a PPG over the next couple of years and to maintain that production level throughout his prime.

That's nowhere near McDavid level, but, at Dubois' likely cap hit, there will still be money to go around for other talented players on the roster as we draft, develop or acquire.

Talented depth VS depth will help you win Cups. Brisebois and/or, the prior GM in TB managing to cap his salaries in the 9.5M range, rather than the 11M range for the best players in Toronto, or the 12.5M coughed up for McJesus in Edmonton, certainly contributed to being able to ad talented depth to the roster for playoff pushes.

The cap hit will go up to a projected 94M in a short enough time. The 24M earmarked for Caufield, Suzuki and Dubois will not cripple us within this projected cap ceiling.

In the meantime, there are enough ELCs to offset the higher Cap, longer term contracts and enough dead weight getting shipped out over the next couple of years to keep the Cap structure viable.

Properly structuring Dubois' contract can allow us to offer him 8M, but help him make that into 8.75M with proper investment of overpayments in the early years of a top heavy, front-loaded contract. Structuring it à la Price with maximum bonuses can also make the fiscal nature of the contract competitive, if not superior to other recent signings like Hughes in New Jersey and Horvat in Long Island.

Just looking at the contracts for Horvat (Zero bonuses and zero front-loading) and Jack Hughes (minimal front loading and bonuses), the latter being a Brisson client (same agent as Dubois), front-loading, even for franchise players or star players is not the norm. Neither is bonus money paid up front prior to the start of the season and the incoming cash flow for teams.

A bonus structure would also shield the majority of Dubois' earnings in case of a lockout from the owners when the CBA expires.

Montreal has the financial backbone to offer such contract structures to players it really wants and I see no reason why it wouldn't want to maximize it's odds of both landing Dubois long term and signing him to a cap hit that remains within reason in order to keep accumulating talent at all positions to be a viable perennial contender down the line.

You can actually offer equal money to Suzuki and make the real take home possibility superior to Suzuki's contract if the Dubois contract is structured more advantageously than Suzuki's contract.

Hughes is smart. He's negotiated contracts in this manner for his clients and an agent. He'll know how to sell Montreal's financial strength through more beneficial contract structures, rather than by just handing out more money in the hope of attracting players.

Not all players are essential to the team's core and Montreal, in the past, did not extend these conditions to Radulov, for example, a contract structure that would have made RADulov's take home pay superior to what he got in Dallas with the same salary.

Somehow, to bring Dubois back home, I believe MON would be willing to extend a beneficial contract structure to him.

I am trying to figure out the last time a player was brought in of this magnitude that actually panned out. I mean a guy you sign for 7/8 years, not something like a Dach trade which was very low risk.
I just don't know if Dubois is the solution.


Sorry but why would Winnipeg be remotely interested in Christian Dvorak?

Not based on the fact you hate him, but, rather, on the positive bias for Dvorak amongst western teams from the time he played out west, maybe, but WIN would not acquire him with the intention of Dvorak becoming their 2nd line C, I don't think.

Perfetti would get that role, IMO, and Dvorak would be depth at C to play a 3rd line role over Lowry.

 

[Scriptor]

A pretty simple but insightful approach. I have a strong feeling that if we sign Dubois to a log-term, expensive contract, there will be many here who, in just a few years will be lamenting its adverse affects on our cap flexibility and rueing our decision to acquire this player.

The only insight is in his bias for or against acquiring Dubois. His post is nothing more than opting for a position that has been lingering around this and other forums for ages. It does not supply any different option or explanation as to why not to acquire Dubois.

Insightful to you because you agree? I can understand you sharing his opinion, but blowing flowers ups his arse wasn't either necessary or justified.

The insightfulness of the post is based on the time-frame of its approach. We are at least two years from being competitive. The acquisition of any high priced player while we are acquiring additional young assets and shedding bloated unproductive contracts would be counterproductive. The timing of acquiring key free agent players is truly an important facet of the art of team building. In this writer’s opinion, this is not the time to plunge into the free agency market nor is Dubois the player I would get ‘wet’ for.

Nothing new. Not insightful.

 

[Scriptor]

Not many guys here wanted Matheson, yet here we are.

Fans are just that, fans. Most of us are clueless and our opinions have no weight on reality.


Yeah no, that'd be a sideways move at best. Dach is younger and he's doing well in Montreal so far, which isn't the case for everyone.

I'm confident Dubois would do well, but there's a chance he crumbles under the pressure, especially being french.

There's a possibility that any player traded to a new team doesn't develop chemistry with the new team. Otherwise, when the Rangers initially tried to buy a Cup by hiring all the top UFAs, including Jagr, they would have won the Cup.

Instead, they didn't even make the playoffs!

I'm less concerned about the French thing and crumbling under the pressure of MON's market for Dubois, compared to Drouin, for example, because Dubois, at this moment, is a confirmed NHL talent, not some Player exiting his ELC and trying to establish his identity in the NHL.

Xhekaj is a good and valuable player, fan favorite, but shouldn't be on anyone's untradable list.

It's an opinion, and as valuable as any other opinion, IMO. Some feel that Xhekaj brings a rare package of skill to go with the genuine intimidation factor he also brings. That makes him more untraceable than Harris, for example, who is not, for that matter, an easily replaceable D either.

 

[Scriptor]

What is your strategy if you find out Dubois is open to sign/trade with the Habs, Avs, and maybe 1 or 2 more teams? Try to guess what the Avs would offer in a sign/trade package? I think this is an interesting exercise to consider.

* Avs Futures? Avs 2023 1st (21st right now)

* Cap Contract? Avs can't fit Dubois in without sending a contract the other way. We have to assume that is Girard right?

* Anything else? I doubt Newhook is on the table right?

Would you try to beat this Avs package? Doubt Sakic would offer this much but lets say he will
* Avs 21st+ pick
* Girard
* Newhook

What do you consider would beat that?

Why would you give up a single asset for a player you can get for nothing next year unless you think he is the missing piece to a cup run?

Patience people!

The assumption you will get him for nothing if you wait is the problem with your reasoning. beyond that, if you hate the player, for whatever reason, and have convinced yourself he's worth squat, that's another problem.

 

[MasterD]

There's a possibility that any player traded to a new team doesn't develop chemistry with the new team. Otherwise, when the Rangers initially tried to buy a Cup by hiring all the top UFAs, including Jagr, they would have won the Cup.

Instead, they didn't even make the playoffs!

I'm less concerned about the French thing and crumbling under the pressure of MON's market for Dubois, compared to Drouin, for example, because Dubois, at this moment, is a confirmed NHL talent, not some Player exiting his ELC and trying to establish his identity in the NHL.


It's an opinion, and as valuable as any other opinion, IMO. Some feel that Xhekaj brings a rare package of skill to go with the genuine intimidation factor he also brings. That makes him more untraceable than Harris, for example, who is not, for that matter, an easily replaceable D either.

At this point in time, yes he is. He has an NHL career in front of him for sure, but he doesn't have one thing that he does better than most. He's just a good, complete all around #5 D that plays a smart game but is kinda weak physically. IMO.

I do respect that it's all opinions, and we can definitely disagree.

Xhekaj is a rare mix of skill and physicality, for sure. But if he keeps up his current frequency of fighting, his body will be done by the time he's 25. I've said it all season, he needs to tone it down. Now his shoulder told him to tone it down.

I feel like he plays a big role on this team because we're so small and wimpy, but on a more physical team like Winnipeg or Boston he would be far from a game changer.

 

[Scriptor]

Do you think there is any truth to the idea that signing or trading for Dubois will not be taken well by Dach/Suzuki?

Almost like a message to them that management doesn't have faith in them at C?

Nope. Not remotely. I also expect the team captain to be kept in the loop and not find put after the fact, on the day of the trade.

Pretty sure it will be accepted as management doing exactly what it is doing -- adding proven talent to help accelerate the rebuild so we can benefit from more prime years of both Suzuki and Dach in the hopes of winning a Cup.

At this point in time, yes he is. He has an NHL career in front of him for sure, but he doesn't have one thing that he does better than most. He's just a good, complete all around #5 D that plays a smart game but is kinda weak physically. IMO.

I do respect that it's all opinions, and we can definitely disagree.

Xhekaj is a rare mix of skill and physicality, for sure. But if he keeps up his current frequency of fighting, his body will be done by the time he's 25. I've said it all season, he needs to tone it down. Now his shoulder told him to tone it down.

I feel like he plays a big role on this team because we're so small and wimpy, but on a more physical team like Winnipeg or Boston he would be far from a game changer.

He's still just a rookie. He'll learn in time or be done like the Dinosaurs...

I think so too, You're very close I'd say to what it would cost to get it done and that's the package I would offer as well.

The only thing I expect will happen, they will ask for Mailloux instead of Harris and will fight hard to get him.

Flip in Barron for Harris, not Mailloux.

 

[Scriptor]

Twenty-five year old 60 point center already making $6 million a year who is a pending RFA and will be looking to get paid either this year or next year as a UFA ? We already have our big center .

If he can maintain that pace he would surpass his career high of 61 points .

Why are posters easily satisfied?

We have a power forward. We don't need another. We have a big C. We don't need another.

Hell, keep going. We have a sniper in Caufield. We don't need another.

Really? Why not get more than one?

 

[Habs13]

I don't see any reason at all to trade for Dubois - we aren't desperate for a center with Suzuki and Dach, although it would be amazing to have him.

Whatever the cost would be in a trade is too much, but if he is serious about coming here, let him become a UFA and sign him then. Having Suzuki, Dach and Dubois down the middle is insane, and probably doesn't happen - somebody is moving to wing... and all three would also make good wingers. It's very interesting but not a trade we NEED to make.

A young puck moving defenseman, a young stud goalie... these are bigger needs right now.

Also: there is still a chance the Habs win the Bedard sweepstakes, so we shouldn't even be considering this until that comes to pass.

 

[Kojo]

How much would Dubois cost if he was a free agent? If he takes a huge hometown discount like 6.5m per year this could be interesting but he's probably thinking he's worth 8 million per year which is why I don't care about him.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

How much would Dubois cost if he was a free agent? If he takes a huge hometown discount like 6.5m per year this could be interesting but he's probably thinking he's worth 8 million per year which is why I don't care about him.

around 9m

 

[26Mats]

around 9m

I think it will depend on what kind of year he has next year and what kind of playoff he has this year, if they make it.

He hasn't had a good second half of the year.

 

[Belial]

around 9m

He'll probably get it but he's not worth it based on his numbers...