Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[Redux91]

Actually, don't answer that. We can agree to disagree on that one, no need to have any further discussion on my end.

Well thank christ for that lol
This has all seemed a bit too much for you anyway

 

[Destopcorner]

What a silly argument.

Do you really think that Suzuki would only have 66 points if Caufield remained heathy all year?

Do you really think Suzuki would have only 66 points if he got to play with Connor, Ehlers, Wheeler, Morrisey and Scheifele?

You just sound ridiculous here.

The argument is Suzuki is more or less the same level as PLD and people act like they're not in the same league or just middle of the road players which I find really funny.

Both have first line production because yes, being in top 90 points players is first line production by simple math.

Those arguing against the mathematic concept and the fact PLD is too old while he's not even one year older than Suzy is quite ridiculous indeed.

What makes you so sure PLD will sign here if he becomes UFA? Money talk and some team will offer 10m for a 25yo 6f3 65points center...

Luckily Hugo is trying to bring him home before that as any good manager would do.

 

[JT3]

87th in the NHL in points. 4th on his team (which was a playoff bubble team). Realistically probably the 5th best player because of Ehlers (although debatable). I think middle-of-the-road is a perfect way to describe PLD. Personally, I prefer Danault, who would have cost way less to sign.

But let's agree to disagree. I just totally think it is very normal that some people are not dropping their pants to get PLD - he's not some sort of super stud hockey megastar. He's an average top-6 forward.

I think he's an above average top 6 forward personally, a 2A center, but fair enough. I do agree at the time that we should have kept Danault and thought it was foolish to let him walk over 500k, but in hindsight he probably would have helped keep us out of the basement the last two seasons.

 

[FerrisRox]

What makes you so sure PLD will sign here if he becomes UFA? Money talk and some team will offer 10m for a 25yo 6f3 65points center...

Luckily Hugo is trying to bring him home before that as any good manager would do.

I'm not certain he would sign here. I'm more than willing to roll the dice though because my interest in acquiring him is solely as an unrestricted free agent.

Let me ask you this: if money talks and some team will offer him $10 million, why on earth would Dubois sign with the Canadiens a year before reaching free agency for a smaller number?

If the answer is because he wants to be a Montreal Canadien, then explain to me again why he won't sign here as a free agent?

 

[waitin425]

If they trade Barron to get Dubois a year early, I will officially lose faith in this management group.

I can't imagine they would be stupid enough to do this.

That all depends on where they see our defensive prospects of the future.

If Guhle, Xhekaj, Harris, Hutson and Mailloux all project higher than Barron, than I would be willing to trade our 6th best d prospect in a package for PLD.

I am not saying that is where I place him, simply that we are pretty deep at D for the future and could possibly part with Barron. I would place his current value at ~ the Florida pick.

Let's say we do Dvorak and Barron. Retaining Florida pick with which we pick ASP (Reinbacher probably gone)

Would you part with Barron while still having the above 5 young D men + ASP + Engstrom?

I would.

I don't want to wait for UFA

 

[KevSkillz4]

If they trade Barron to get Dubois a year early, I will officially lose faith in this management group.

I can't imagine they would be stupid enough to do this.

Agree. Habs need to keep Barron. He already show great promising right now. He is going to be a Jeff Petry 2.0, less frustratring to watch at PP because he is a better playmaker than Petry at PP.

I really like him, a potential to become a solid two-way #3 or #4 d-man, for sure.

 

[Sorinth]

I'm thinking the Jets don't want excess salary like Dvo. But they may want Anderson.

But why do we need to ship salary. We have plenty of cap space. I think we'll roughly have 10M in cap space after we resign Cole and the rest of the RFA's.

If we get PLD then that 10m pretty much evaporates so clearing out 4.5m would give us some good flexibility. If Winnipeg doesn't want Dvorak I don't think it would be a sticking point for us but it's certainly desirable from our POV.

On the downside Winnipeg will care about real dollars not just cap hit, and Dvorak is making 5.75m in actual salary the next 2 years. And on our side Dvorak has a M-NTC (8 team no trade list) that kicks in soon so if the plan is to trade him we would probably want to do it by the draft.

 

[FerrisRox]

That all depends on where they see our defensive prospects of the future.

If Guhle, Xhekaj, Harris, Hutson and Mailloux all project higher than Barron, than I would be willing to trade our 6th best d prospect in a package for PLD.

I am not saying that is where I place him, simply that we are pretty deep at D for the future and could possibly part with Barron. I would place his current value at ~ the Florida pick.

Let's say we do Dvorak and Barron. Retaining Florida pick with which we pick ASP (Reinbacher probably gone)

Would you part with Barron while still having the above 5 young D men + ASP + Engstrom?

I would.

I don't want to wait for UFA

I'm only interested if we wait til UFA and I would be furious if we surrendered a 6'2 right shot defensemen that skates as well Barron to acquire a forward who allegedly wants to come here anyway.

That would be gross incompetence on the management level.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

I'm not certain he would sign here. I'm more than willing to roll the dice though because my interest in acquiring him is solely as an unrestricted free agent.

Let me ask you this: if money talks and some team will offer him $10 million, why on earth would Dubois sign with the Canadiens a year before reaching free agency for a smaller number?

Because being a habs 1 year in advance and signing a ~8.5 M x 7 years contract is still a great scenario for Dubois. He also doesn't know if teams will offer him 10M if he waits a year.

If the answer is because he wants to be a Montreal Canadien, then explain to me again why he won't sign here as a free agent?

The main issue isn't whether he will be willing to sign with the habs as an ufa. Its whether he even reaches ufa. Dubois will be traded this summer. That's almost a certainty. Whichever team acquires him will look to sign him to a long term contract. Its unlikely the habs are the only team Dubois is willing to sign long term with.

If he does reach ufa, there are teams that could offer him 10 M. If the habs are his favourite team and offers him a 8.5 M contract, but his 2nd favourite team offers him a 10M contract, why would he say prefer the habs offer? If the habs want him, they will need to increase their offer. By trading for Dubois in advance, you avoid this scenario.

 

[Sorinth]

I'm only interested if we wait til UFA and I would be furious if we surrendered a 6'2 right shot defensemen that skates as well Barron to acquire a forward who allegedly wants to come here anyway.

That would be gross incompetence on the management level.

It's this type of thinking that lead Bergevin to hold onto Beaulieu and Tinordi for so long. There's a time for hoping your magic beans turn into something and there's a time to trade your magic beans for something real. Losing out on a young 6'3 center who has actually proven himself in the NHL because you think he should have to exclusively want to play for you is way more incompetent.

 

[FerrisRox]

Because being a habs 1 year in advance and signing a ~8.5 M x 7 years contract is still a great scenario for Dubois. He also doesn't know if teams will offer him 10M if he waits a year.

So let me see if I have this right:

Dubois is apparently eager to join the Montreal Canadiens, and if they trade for him this summer he will sign a 7-year deal at $8.5 million.

For reasons unknown, he will not sign at $8.5 million if he reaches free agency, he will instead get offered $10 million, and that's why Montreal needs to trade for him now.

Why doesn't he just wait until UFA status to get the bigger pay day? Why does he sign this summer if Montreal trades for him?

And conversely, you seem to want to have it both ways: On one hand, Dubios is willing to sign for $8.5 this summer because he might not get $10 million as a free agent and, at the same time, we can't wait for him to reach free agency... because he will get $10 million and "money talks."

You're talking about of both sides of your mouth here.

 

[sampollock]

So let me see if I have this right:

Dubois is apparently eager to join the Montreal Canadiens, and if they trade for him this summer he will sign a 7-year deal at $8.5 million.

For reasons unknown, he will not sign at $8.5 million if he reaches free agency, he will instead get offered $10 million, and that's why Montreal needs to trade for him now.

Why doesn't he just wait until UFA status to get the bigger pay day? Why does he sign this summer if Montreal trades for him?

And conversely, you seem to want to have it both ways: On one hand, Dubios is willing to sign for $8.5 this summer because he might not get $10 million as a free agent and, at the same time, we can't wait for him to reach free agency... because he will get $10 million and "money talks."

You're talking about of both sides of your mouth here.

Habs need to get him now, as ufa will command more $$ and more GM's throwing $$ at him

get him at the draft, or he won't be here. $$ talks over "I want to play of the habs"

 

[FerrisRox]

It's this type of thinking that lead Bergevin to hold onto Beaulieu and Tinordi for so long. There's a time for hoping your magic beans turn into something and there's a time to trade your magic beans for something real. Losing out on a young 6'3 center who has actually proven himself in the NHL because you think he should have to exclusively want to play for you is way more incompetent.

I'm not sure who you think you are arguing with here, but it's certainly not me.

At no time have I made the claim that Dubois "exclusively wants to play" here. I have, in fact, repeatedly said that he "allegedly" wants to play here.

What I have said is that I'm only interested in him if he wants to come here as a free agent. I am not interested in surrendering picks and prospects to add at 65 point forward at an $8 million plus cap hit.

Even as a free agent, with no assets surrendered, I'm not really interested if the cost moves north of $8.5 million.

 

[Vincent01]

It's this type of thinking that lead Bergevin to hold onto Beaulieu and Tinordi for so long. There's a time for hoping your magic beans turn into something and there's a time to trade your magic beans for something real. Losing out on a young 6'3 center who has actually proven himself in the NHL because you think he should have to exclusively want to play for you is way more incompetent.

It's also this type of thinking that lead Gainey to trade McDonagh for Gomez.

 

[FerrisRox]

Habs need to get him now, as ufa will command more $$ and more GM's throwing $$ at him

get him at the draft, or he won't be here. $$ talks over "I want to play of the habs"

Then why on earth would Dubois sign a contract with any team this summer? He would be stupid to do so if he can make more money in 12-months.

It's also this type of thinking that lead Gainey to trade McDonagh for Gomez.

And Sergechev for Drouin.

 

[Vincent01]

Then why on earth would Dubois sign a contract with any team this summer? He would be stupid to do so if he can make more money in 12-months.



And Sergechev for Drouin.

I try not to think too much about this one. Still a bit too fresh for my liking.

 

[26Mats]

If we get PLD then that 10m pretty much evaporates so clearing out 4.5m would give us some good flexibility. If Winnipeg doesn't want Dvorak I don't think it would be a sticking point for us but it's certainly desirable from our POV.

On the downside Winnipeg will care about real dollars not just cap hit, and Dvorak is making 5.75m in actual salary the next 2 years. And on our side Dvorak has a M-NTC (8 team no trade list) that kicks in soon so if the plan is to trade him we would probably want to do it by the draft.

yeah, if Winnipeg would take Dvo it would be good. But on the flip side, I still think he can get his trade value up with us if he plays wing with good offensive players... Note, in his first year with us, he scored at a 48 points in 82 games pace, a career high. How many points would he get playing wing with Suzuki, Dach or Dubois?

 

[sampollock]

yeah, if Winnipeg would take Dvo it would be good. But on the flip side, I still think he can get his trade value up with us if he plays wing with good offensive players... Note, in his first year with us, he scored at a 48 points in 82 games pace, a career high. How many points would he get playing wing with Suzuki, Dach or Dubois?

the peg will gut the team, DVO is not what they will want. I think it will be a rebuild there

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

So let me see if I have this right:

Dubois is apparently eager to join the Montreal Canadiens, and if they trade for him this summer he will sign a 7-year deal at $8.5 million.

For reasons unknown, he will not sign at $8.5 million if he reaches free agency, he will instead get offered $10 million, and that's why Montreal needs to trade for him now.

Why doesn't he just wait until UFA status to get the bigger pay day? Why does he sign this summer if Montreal trades for him?

Because joining the habs a year in advance has its merits?

Also, it's not a guarantee he gets more as a ufa. He could have a bad season next year or he could have a severe injury that scares teams off, which leads to not getting the offers he thought he would get. You know like how Klingberg rejected big offers last summer because of his greed, but now he's going to end up getting much less?



Waiting a year doesn't come without risk...

And conversely, you seem to want to have it both ways: On one hand, Dubios is willing to sign for $8.5 this summer because he might not get $10 million as a free agent and, at the same time, we can't wait for him to reach free agency... because he will get $10 million and "money talks."

You're talking about of both sides of your mouth here.

Do you realize none of this is certainty? We don't know in advance if there will be teams that offer him a 10 M-like contract. There are several different scenarios possible...

 

[Sorinth]

I'm not sure who you think you are arguing with here, but it's certainly not me.

At no time have I made the claim that Dubois "exclusively wants to play" here. I have, in fact, repeatedly said that he "allegedly" wants to play here.

What I have said is that I'm only interested in him if he wants to come here as a free agent. I am not interested in surrendering picks and prospects to add at 65 point forward at an $8 million plus cap hit.

Even as a free agent, with no assets surrendered, I'm not really interested if the cost moves north of $8.5 million.

It sounds like you are only "allegedly" interested in PLD which is fine you don't have to like the player or want him on the team but don't pretend it's gross mismanagement and that he's not worth a guy who might not even be able to crack our NHL roster in training camp.

 

[Sorinth]

It's also this type of thinking that lead Gainey to trade McDonagh for Gomez.

It was a bad trade for sure but would it have been bad trade had we gotten a 24 year old Gomez, probably not. Also worth mentioning is that not only did we go to the ECF twice over the next 5 years after that trade, we also had arguably the best development from our prospect group in the past 30 years in no small part because prospects develop best when surrounded by other good players, as well as by playing in and contributing to important playoff games. If you ever heard Carey Price talk about the 2010 playoff run where he sat on the bench for most of he says it was a big part of him becoming the player he ended up being. So arguably going after Gomez (Or player like him) was the right call and the only mistake was overpaying.

 

[salbutera]

It's also this type of thinking that lead Gainey to trade McDonagh for Gomez.

There’s a huge difference - Fla 1st pick may or may not become McDonagh. Historical probability says a 17OA won’t…

 

[Milhouse40]

So let me see if I have this right:

Dubois is apparently eager to join the Montreal Canadiens, and if they trade for him this summer he will sign a 7-year deal at $8.5 million.

For reasons unknown, he will not sign at $8.5 million if he reaches free agency, he will instead get offered $10 million, and that's why Montreal needs to trade for him now.

Why doesn't he just wait until UFA status to get the bigger pay day? Why does he sign this summer if Montreal trades for him?

And conversely, you seem to want to have it both ways: On one hand, Dubios is willing to sign for $8.5 this summer because he might not get $10 million as a free agent and, at the same time, we can't wait for him to reach free agency... because he will get $10 million and "money talks."

You're talking about of both sides of your mouth here.

It's not exactly that in my book.

If we wait a year we'll be fighting with other team to get him and they will pitch him their city, contract, teams, facility, taxes advantages and so on. Thinking will come into play and it's might not be a big difference 1.5M a year but on a 7 years deal, it's 10,5M, enough to think long and hard.

Now it's all about team building and trying to get all your players at the lowest price possible.
If we trade for him, you now have the ultimate advantage of giving him a 8 years deal at a lower tag price on the cap.

If he goes UFA, it might cost a little bit more, so 7 years at 9.25M
If you trade for him, you might be able to get him on a 8 years at 7.8M

 

[RC51]

yes PLD wants to play in MTL, it's CLEAR. In fact it's clear to every GM.
MTL will not offer PLD 2 mil more then Suzuki. .5-1mil and thats it 7-8 years yes.
Hughes cant give him a ton more the suzuki just a bit more.
Hughes can not insult suzuki or even Caufield. Also huges has to budget for the new blood knocking at the door. everyone must remember about the rookies ( 4-5 great rookies) that will make the team and I suspect will show a ton of talent. It going to be tricky in about 3 years. But for PLD its great to join the habs with very good rebuild being 3/4 done. the habs just need about 2-3 years to start the road up from the bottom to the playoffs and more.

 

[FerrisRox]

It sounds like you are only "allegedly" interested in PLD which is fine you don't have to like the player or want him on the team but don't pretend it's gross mismanagement and that he's not worth a guy who might not even be able to crack our NHL roster in training camp.

This is bizarre.

I have *repeatedly* said that I am definitely interested in Dubois joining the Canadiens.

I have said it at least ten times in various posts in this thread.

I also, I never said that Dubois isn't "worth" Justin Barron. So it's kind of odd that you are attributing that to me.

I responded to a post suggesting that packaging the Florida Panthers first round pick and Justin Barron for Dubois would be a good trade for the team. I think it would be grossly incompetent during a rebuild to surrender a first round pick and a prospect like Barron. A 6'2 defensemen with excellent skating, great potential as a puck mover and a right hand shot is something we should *absolutely keep.* It's nonsensical to trade that away for a player who reportedly is very interested in playing here and is a year away from free agency.

Keep Barron and the pick and focus on Dubois if and when he becomes a free agent. And if he doesn't then keep rebuilding the team as originally planned.