Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[Prairie Habs]

As much as everyone was laughing at that offer then, it's pretty freaking good when you realize what Halak and Ryder turned out to become

Ryder had 26 goals and 63 points in his rookie year pre lockout rules changes, then put up back to back 30 goal seasons. His value was always solid. Half the people who spam the meme offer in Habs trade threads on the main boards probably weren't even watching the NHL when he played here 15+ years ago.

 

[Kosseca]

I’m sorry guys but players of Dubois caliber never want to come play in Mtl, let alone while starting their prime years.

We have an opportunity to get a great player in an enviable situation we kinda control.

Don’t miss it.

And we all know the chances are slim to see the Habs draft top 10 again next season. Even less in 2024-2025. So these picks and prospects most probably won’t become better than PLD. For me they will become trade materials if good opportunities show themselves.

I think the time to start adding key pieces to the core is now, not in two years.

I would add to this that, if true, it is rare that a good player wishes to play in MTL. There is a message in trading for PLD to be sent to potentially other players that may be interested in coming over. Passing on him at all cost is a bad message. While you don't trade for him at ALL cost, it needs to be known that you tried to get him.

 

[JT3]

I just don't understand why, having watched the versions of the Habs we've all watched for the last 20-30 years, anybody would NOT want to acquire Dubois and have 3 potential 1B centers. Suzuki and Dubois are both 1B/2A's at worst, and Dach appears to be establishing himself as a 2c right now. All of them can continue to improve. We would be set down the middle for the next 10+ years.

Or we can just cross our fingers and hope we get lucky.

Of course if the cost to acquire is too high or Dubois wants too much, then we pass. But at the commonly talked about trade value with an ~8m extension it's a no brainer for me.

 

[Redux91]

I mean there's definitely people who seem to want to give the away the farm.

I also don't think PLD is worth $8m.

Oof
If we do get him he's getting 8-9 easy I would think

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Oof
If we do get him he's getting 8-9 easy I would think

For a 65 point player?! No thanks.

 

[sampollock]

Don't you think waiting until he's ufa and drafting with our pick 17 would speed up our build.

guy at 17 is 3 years away. that puts PLD that much older, need to fill the gaps with our suz and CC now, not in 3 years if we are lucky

Why are people saying Dubois wouldn't sign with the Bruins lmao because he's a home town kid? Money talks don't kid yourselves, Dubois is also young AF the rivalry ain't the same

that is a such a bang on point. if not the B's , it will be a team that throws cash.
he won't leave money on the table to take a discount to come to the habs. never

 

[JoelWarlord]

For a 65 point player?! No thanks.

Are you in favour of trading Suzuki then? I can't see how him being 1 year younger and making 125k less than 8M would be enough of a difference to choose to keep Suzuki instead of trading him for a huge haul of futures. There's significantly higher opportunity cost to keeping Suzuki given that Suzuki's trade value is significantly higher than what a Dubois trade will look like. Why is 24 y/o Dubois for 8x8 a non-starter, but we should definitely keep 23 y/o Suzuki for 7x7.875 instead of cashing in on his trade value now to help the rebuild?

I don't want to trade Suzuki either and I absolutely love the guy, but all the same reasons people are giving for being cagey about Dubois are even stronger arguments when applied to the idea of trading Suzuki to keep accumulating more futures. The logic behind passing on Dubois taken to its conclusion would only seem to support trading Suzuki now to build around Dach + new prospects in the future to me.

 

[Guy Larose]

For a 65 point player?! No thanks.

Suzy 66pts $7,875,000 with an actual salary of $10,000,000 this year and next....

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Are you in favour of trading Suzuki then? I can't see how him being 1 year younger and making 125k less than 8M would be enough of a difference to choose to keep Suzuki instead of trading him for a huge haul of futures. There's significantly higher opportunity cost to keeping Suzuki given that Suzuki's trade value is significantly higher than what a Dubois trade will look like. Why is 24 y/o Dubois for 8x8 a non-starter, but we should definitely keep 23 y/o Suzuki for 7x7.875 instead of cashing in on his trade value now to help the rebuild?

I don't want to trade Suzuki either and I absolutely love the guy, but all the same reasons people are giving for being cagey about Dubois are even stronger arguments when applied to the idea of trading Suzuki to keep accumulating more futures. The logic behind passing on Dubois taken to its conclusion would only seem to support trading Suzuki now to build around Dach + new prospects in the future to me.

I think the idea is we will end up with a bunch of 8 Mill players but no franchise player. And people are scared of being a capped out top 6 with no PPG guy

I don't agree with the sentiment because if we ever need to make room for a franchise player we can just flip somebody, they will all have value and be worth 8 mill on the market (caufield suzuki dubois) so it's not really an issue imo, Unless NTC and NMC are in the equation I suppose

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Are you in favour of trading Suzuki then? I can't see how him being 1 year younger and making 125k less than 8M would be enough of a difference to choose to keep Suzuki instead of trading him for a huge haul of futures. There's significantly higher opportunity cost to keeping Suzuki given that Suzuki's trade value is significantly higher than what a Dubois trade will look like. Why is 24 y/o Dubois for 8x8 a non-starter, but we should definitely keep 23 y/o Suzuki for 7x7.875 instead of cashing in on his trade value now to help the rebuild?

I don't want to trade Suzuki either and I absolutely love the guy, but all the same reasons people are giving for being cagey about Dubois are even stronger arguments when applied to the idea of trading Suzuki to keep accumulating more futures. The logic behind passing on Dubois taken to its conclusion would only seem to support trading Suzuki now to build around Dach + new prospects in the future to me.

Right, we can only afford one, and I'm keeping Suzuki. He's our captain and a proven playoff performer. He's also been able to produce 60+ points on vastly worse teams with worse players.

He's also signed long term at a reasonable rate on a contract that will age well.

Majority of players who have $8m+ cap hits are ppg or close to it and that's not PLD.

 

[Redux91]

For a 65 point player?! No thanks.

To be fair to you, he technically has never reached 65 pts

To be fair to me, I think he does better here! I honestly do

 

[Benstheman]

For a 65 point player?! No thanks.

Then Suzuki is not worth his contract? I don’t know man. If PLD is getting 8M$, I don’t think it’s bad or good, it’s market value imo. If it’s more than 8M$, it’s risky but still can be good since all the years in his contact might be prime years.

How many times do we see contracts being handed where the 5 first years are market value but the last 3 years are gonna be risky because the player will be 34-35-36 years old? That won’t be the case with PLD because he will be 33 when the contract ends, given we sign him for 1 year + 8 years extension.

 

[SOLR]

Right, we can only afford one, and I'm keeping Suzuki. He's our captain and a proven playoff performer. He's also been able to produce 60+ points on vastly worse teams with worse players.

He's also signed long term at a reasonable rate on a contract that will age well.

Majority of players who have $8m+ cap hits are ppg or close to it and that's not PLD.

The cap will go up, PLD at 8 is cheap, considering the physical roles he will play.
You have to calculate the plus value on other players as well.

 

[sampollock]

PLD is the piece that would help the turn around.
Young enough still to make a difference

 

[JoelWarlord]

I think the idea is we will end up with a bunch of 8 Mill players but no franchise player. And people are scared of being a capped out top 6 with no PPG guy

Yeah I definitely get that side of it, I just think if that's the concern, you'd logically have to want to trade Suzuki too. We barely managed a bottom 5 finish this year with a hilariously bad injury situation, I'd think that unless we have a somehow even worse injury situation next year or a total goaltending collapse we're already going to be into the 8-10 tier with or without him, at which point I don't really care if he pushes us to something like pick 11. To finish bottom 5 again we'd have to either trade or lose Caufield and Suzuki for a significant amount of time.

Right, we can only afford one

Says who? Linked here is a sample cap sheet for 3 seasons from now, taking the most "pessimistic" view from a cap perspective (which is of course optimistic for player dev). Pretty much all of our prospects pan out, Dubois costs 9M, we get Bedard, and we can't move Gallagher or Anderson. Harris is assumed to be traded for Dubois in this example, and I've assumed we sign relatively expensive depth vets as well. I haven't included a 2024 or 2025 1st round pick as they'd be on ELCs anyway. The cap numbers are based on the reported approx ~6M jump that's in the pipeline from the new American TV deals when the HRR debt is repaid either by the end of this or next season.

Even assuming this scenario where everything goes "wrong" from a cap perspective, we have more than enough money to ice a full roster in 25-26 with Dubois at 9M, and if we instead assume he comes in at 8, Gallagher is on LTIR, and Anderson gets traded, we'd have an additional 13M to spend for the 26-27 offseason than is shown in this projection. Depending on how certain players pan out maybe 26-27 might require some cap gymnastics, but that's in a scenario where all our players hit the ground running which is a very good problem to have.

I'm sure the real world will look different and I'm also probably not pencilling in a bad contract or two that we'll end up with in actuality, but I think this example illustrates that even in a very pessimistic cap scenario where we're stuck with Anderson and Gallagher we can still make it work with Dubois.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

I guess I just don't really consider it a gamble given he's coming at a cheaper price than those future hypothetical options. It's possible that in 3 years there's some absolutely perfect fit that we miss out on because of Dubois but I think it's also just as likely that in 3 years we're looking at other players that are in the same basic tier. Also means we avoid a Horvat situation where you add a guy and then he takes time to adjust to the new team etc. To me, the gamble is hoping that our future picks and future trade opportunities give us a better chance than this.

I don't think he's some stud but I think he's a capable top 6 C and would be a great fit either at 2C or on the wing for us. Ultimately I just don't really think the expected value supports holding off for the hope we'll find something even better for cheaper later. We already have Suzuki on what will become a long term value deal, we got Dach for a steal, and we're going to have a ton of ELCs. Not every contract needs to be a steal, and the trade itself is going to heavily favour us.

I've never seen any proposals where it is all that much of a bargain. I guess that's where we're seeing different. If I thought the contract he'd sign for would be a really good team-friendly deal, and the trade to get him would be less than fair market value, then yes I would agree. Sign me up. I just don't see that happening. Most trade proposals and contract terms I see seem like the Habs wouldn't be getting any discount at all. Which is why I'm in no rush.

 

[HuGort]

For a 65 point player?! No thanks.

Power 65 points right. Dubois going to go over 8

 

[NORiculous]

Montembeault ranked between the 10-15 best goaler this season on a GSAx basis.

The thing is, the goalie better than him are usually legit, established number one, and untouchable.

The goaler in the same tier are always available in bunch every summer, choppy, inconsistent and not better than him.

The sample size is still small, but Montembeault is at the top of the 2nd tier of goaltender. He is an adequate number one and we are in business with him. Him playing for .500 with the absolute shitty teams he had is wow.

Un goaler c’est en Québécois lol
Goalie or goaltender

 

[OnTheRun]

Power 65 points right. Dubois going to go over 8

He will ask/get 9~10% of the cap

If he was a star he would ask for 11~13% and 14ish% if was a super star.

How much money that % represent in actual money depends on when he sign his deal.

 

[Jaynki]

Un goaler c’est en Québécois lol
Goalie or goaltender

Merci

 

[le_sean]

I think the idea is we will end up with a bunch of 8 Mill players but no franchise player. And people are scared of being a capped out top 6 with no PPG guy

I don't agree with the sentiment because if we ever need to make room for a franchise player we can just flip somebody, they will all have value and be worth 8 mill on the market (caufield suzuki dubois) so it's not really an issue imo, Unless NTC and NMC are in the equation I suppose

You have to draft franchise players. They are very rarely available as free agents or trade.

I mean look at the Bruins. They completely lucked out drafting Pastrnak at the end of the 1st. But the rest of the team is just a bunch of 50 point players, and they broke the points record. I don’t think trading for PLD prevents the Habs from getting a PPG player.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

I just don't understand why, having watched the versions of the Habs we've all watched for the last 20-30 years, anybody would NOT want to acquire Dubois and have 3 potential 1B centers. Suzuki and Dubois are both 1B/2A's at worst, and Dach appears to be establishing himself as a 2c right now. All of them can continue to improve. We would be set down the middle for the next 10+ years.

Or we can just cross our fingers and hope we get lucky.

Of course if the cost to acquire is too high or Dubois wants too much, then we pass. But at the commonly talked about trade value with an ~8m extension it's a no brainer for me.

I've watched him play maybe 10 times, usually in the playoffs, and he has never looked very good to me. Like he's ok, but he doesn't really do very much. I don't see him as an impact player or a player who can drive offense on a line. But these things are always a bit subjective.

But I mean, it's not like he's one of the top players in the league. He's pretty middle-of-the-road. It would be sort of more weird if everyone did want him. It's pretty understandable that not everyone on this board is excited to acquire PLD.

 

[SwiftyHab]

For us to get PLD we need Boston to close out this series so that the Florida pick stays at 17th.

Hopefully tonight but it’s 2-1 Florida heading into the 3rd

 

[River Meadow]

For us to get PLD we need Boston to close out this series so that the Florida pick stays at 17th.

Hopefully tonight but it’s 2-1 Florida heading into the 3rd

No, we need to pick a prospect with #17 not trade it away..

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Power 65 points right. Dubois going to go over 8

The "power" varies quite a bit. He can through a whole lot of games looking really invisible.