Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[Harry Kakalovich]

I don't think we can say yet what the upside is for guys like Suzuki, Dach and PLD. But say the point range for them is 65-85 points, that's okay in today's NHL, but not spectacular.

Many say we need an elite player to win a Cup. But what if we didn't have 2 great centres , and instead had 3 real good centres. Would we not be able to compete for a Cup with 3 good scoring lines?

Probably not. Problem is good players are fairly common. Most contenders have great players at key positions and then fill their lineup with good players as best they can.

 

[LaP]

In all fairness even McDavid was unable to get his team to the playoffs for the longest time or past the 1st round (thus far) when they did qualify…. until the team was made stronger

Hockey has always been & will always be the ultimate sum of all parts, team game.

A team with strong depth though lacking in high end talent (Bruins) have a higher probability of playoff success than 2-3 high end players surrounded by chumps…

Pasternak is not high end talent? MacAvoy was top 5 in norris voting the last 2 years.

 

[Redux91]

PLD isn't going to make the team all that much better. Just good enough to be mediocre instead of bad. Winnipeg and Columbus haven't exactly been successful wiz kids with him on the team.

Team finally has a deepening farm team, and finally is tanking during a deep draft year instead of terrible ones and people want to sell the farm for a 65 point player and give him $8m-$9m for it.

Aw man but dude!
sending a couple picks, a contract and 1 prospect isnt "selling the farm" tho!

But I won't lie, it would be great to get this done somehow without ever giving up 17th ov, it was never "my" intention to want to use that pick, it's only really picked up major steam these last 2 weeks, and now it would be hard to imagine any discussion without it involved unfortunately
In my mind, it was always the Calgary 1st(or wtv? lol) that was ammo for the potential trade

If there ever is a trade I truly believe we come away positively out of it, but again, yeah, would be GREAT not to involve #17ov somehow

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

PLD isn't going to make the team all that much better. Just good enough to be mediocre instead of bad. Winnipeg and Columbus haven't exactly been successful wiz kids with him on the team.

Team finally has a deepening farm team, and finally is tanking during a deep draft year instead of terrible ones and people want to sell the farm for a 65 point player and give him $8m-$9m for it.

Spending the 17th overall+ isn't selling the farm. Not even close.

Without Dubois the habs will be a mediocre team next season. They finished 5th last while having the worst nhl man-game lost in history and while regularly icing 4-5 rookies on D. The habs will be much better next season, but not good enough to make the playoffs. At least adding Dubois gives the habs a chance to be a bubble team as soon as next season.

Keller, Laine, Zegras, Raymond, etc. haven't made their team successful, I guess they are players we should have no interest in if they ever became available at a discount...

 

[SlafySZN]

Suzuki, Caufield, PLD and Dach with a few additions will be enough to bring us back to the same mediocre crap we’ve seen since the last 20 or whatever years. If you want to guarantee you’re competing for a wild card spot on a yearly basis, spend stupidly on the Dubois’s of the NHL and ensure you’re never competing with the best of the division, much less the conference/league

That’s why i’m against getting Dubois lol and why i actually don’t think they’ll trade for him.

 

[yianik]

Probably not. Problem is good players are fairly common. Most contenders have great players at key positions and then fill their lineup with good players as best they can.

Yeah, we just keep whiffing. Look at the Leafs, sure they scored on a generational player like Matthews, but then Marner at 4, Nylander at 8 or 9, Kadri was at 7th and Reilly top 6 ? And Tavares wore Leaf pj's. I know they haven't won squat, but their drafting killed it when it mattered.

 

[Mudz]

Aw man but dude!
sending a couple picks, a contract and 1 prospect isnt "selling the farm" tho!

But I won't lie, it would be great to get this done somehow without ever giving up 17th ov, it was never "my" intention to want to use that pick, it's only really picked up major steam these last 2 weeks, and now it would be hard to imagine any discussion without it involved unfortunately
In my mind, it was always the Calgary 1st(or wtv? lol) that was ammo for the potential trade

If there ever is a trade I truly believe we come away positively out of it, but again, yeah, would be GREAT not to involve #17ov somehow

Just on a factual point of view, the 17th pick is an over payment for PLD.

Pending UFAs gather a late round pick + a prospect.

Trading the Calgary pick would be too risky for me with all the drama over there. Might end up been a great pick.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Why are people saying Dubois wouldn't sign with the Bruins lmao because he's a home town kid? Money talks don't kid yourselves, Dubois is also young AF the rivalry ain't the same

 

[WeThreeKings]

Why are people saying Dubois wouldn't sign with the Bruins lmao because he's a home town kid? Money talks don't kid yourselves, Dubois is also young AF the rivalry ain't the same

Mainly that they don't have the money.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Mainly that they don't have the money.

100%

 

[MarkovsKnee]

If PLD actually wants to test UFA & get the best contract possible then his best option is to accept his Q.O again and don't sign another contract til July 1, 2024.

Cap might go up $4m-$5m next summer, so teams that can't afford him this year could next year.

Teams like Washington, Boston, St. Louis, Minnesota etc will have money in another year.
And cap is expected to rise significantly.

This is likely the last year that tank teams like Chicago, Anaheim etc will be able to benefit greatly off having cap space. Montreal too.

 

[Redux91]

Yeah, we just keep whiffing. Look at the Leafs, sure they scored on a generational player like Matthews, but then Marner at 4, Nylander at 8 or 9, Kadri was at 7th and Reilly top 6 ? And Tavares wore Leaf pj's. I know they haven't won squat, but their drafting killed it when it mattered.

Other than the obvious Matthew's at 1ov who's one of the better 1st OV you could ever get

Other then that, I could cancel almost everything out if you use "redraft rankings" (I know I know lol) but Caufield could be considered a top 5 pick
Suzuki can be considered top 5 pick
Dach can be considered a top 5 pick (hey he is!)
Guhle can be considered a bit higher than 16th now
And Dubois wore habs pj's.

Other than the fact Leafs got lucky with their 1st OV year and us not as lucky with our year(go figure)
I don't see their team building being head and shoulders better than ours right now, which is only still in the beginning stages of our rebuild, while they are in, what, year 8-9 of theirs and finally getting out of the 2nd round. .... in year 9 lol

 

[Redux91]

Why are people saying Dubois wouldn't sign with the Bruins lmao because he's a home town kid? Money talks don't kid yourselves, Dubois is also young AF the rivalry ain't the same

Yes I'm SURE little 10 year old PLD didn't think ANYTHING of the peak Habs-Bruins rivalry of the modern day (2006-2013)..

Lol he's not 12 years old bud

Now, that's not to say I'm so naive as to think PLD hates the Bruins and would never sign with them, not at all
Of course he could
He won't simply because they can't lol.

 

[yianik]

Other than the obvious Matthew's at 1ov who's one of the better 1st OV you could ever get

Other then that, I could cancel almost everything out if you use "redraft rankings" (I know I know lol) but Caufield could be considered a top 5 pick
Suzuki can be considered top 5 pick
Dach can be considered a top 5 pick (hey he is!)
Guhle can be considered a bit higher than 16th now
And Dubois slept with Canadiens blankets.

Other than the fact Leafs got lucky with their 1st OV year and us not as lucky with our year(go figure)
I don't see their team building being head and shoulders better than ours right now, which is only still in the beginning stages of our rebuild, while they are in, what, year 8-9 of theirs and finally getting out of the 2nd round. .... in year 9 lol

I was thinking more about the past than the last few years. Even TT began focusing on skill and speed the last couple of years. HUGO definitely want upside not mediocre middle guys.

 

[Benstheman]

I’m sorry guys but players of Dubois caliber never want to come play in Mtl, let alone while starting their prime years.

We have an opportunity to get a great player in an enviable situation we kinda control.

Don’t miss it.

And we all know the chances are slim to see the Habs draft top 10 again next season. Even less in 2024-2025. So these picks and prospects most probably won’t become better than PLD. For me they will become trade materials if good opportunities show themselves.

I think the time to start adding key pieces to the core is now, not in two years.

 

[Draft]

I’m sorry guys but players of Dubois caliber never want to come play in Mtl, let alone while starting their prime years.

We have an opportunity to get a great player in an enviable situation we kinda control.

Don’t miss it.

And we all know the chances are slim to see the Habs draft top 10 again next season. Even less in 2024-2025. So these picks and prospects most probably won’t become better than PLD. For me they will become trade materials if good opportunities show themselves.

I think the time to start adding key pieces to the core is now, not in two years.

Which is also why I think we should trade a top-10 protected first in future years and not the FLA 1st. Based on who's available, we could be adding a player in 1-2 years instead of 3-4.

 

[JT3]

- Pick 17 has about a 60% chance of playing more than 99 games, let alone a star
- We can acquire a legit PWF top 6 C at a discounted price (who happens to be a hometown kid)
- We can sign him at a cap hit that will probably age will given cap rise in the coming years
- He will help develop and elevate the game of the other young forwards
- Adds size and skill to our top 6 (since y'all love to complain about smurfs so much)
- If the team is healthy we are already probably a bit too good to legitimately tank (i.e. picks in the ~10 range)
- We already have a massive amount of picks/prospects and cannot fit them all under 50 contracts/into roster spots

A lot of you are letting 'perfection' overrule 'very good'. This is not EA NHL, I guarantee you management will not sit on their hands ala Bergevin and cross their fingers and pray that a bonafide star falls into our lap before they start making improvements to the team. If you can land a PLD level player at a discount you take it every time, if not we may as well just trade Suzuki and Caufield because them along with the rest of the young players we have collected will probably be good enough to drag us out of the basement anyways.

And for what it's worth I hope there is a way we can acquire him without giving up pick 17, but if that's what it takes then it is what it is. Honestly using the CGY 1st is probably better for our overall timeline anyways.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

No to trading Dach for Dubois

Kirby showed us that hes potentiel is sky high on many nights he was by far our best player him and Suzuki will be our centers and PLD will be used on the wing

Dubois - Suzuki - Caufield
Slafkovsky - Dach - Anderson

in 2 years our 2023 1st will replace Josh

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Im all for trading Dubois but Dubois doesnt get more money than Suzuki. Same as Caufield.

7m would be fair

8-9m is a reach for him even tho , there is always that dumb GM to give 10m at Ufas.

 

[Egresch]

Pick 17 has about a 60% chance of playing more than 99 games, let alone a star

Right, the best pick 17 in last 30 years os Zach Parise, other notables are Hertl, Connor or Krebs.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Aw man but dude!
sending a couple picks, a contract and 1 prospect isnt "selling the farm" tho!

But I won't lie, it would be great to get this done somehow without ever giving up 17th ov, it was never "my" intention to want to use that pick, it's only really picked up major steam these last 2 weeks, and now it would be hard to imagine any discussion without it involved unfortunately
In my mind, it was always the Calgary 1st(or wtv? lol) that was ammo for the potential trade

If there ever is a trade I truly believe we come away positively out of it, but again, yeah, would be GREAT not to involve #17ov somehow

I mean there's definitely people who seem to want to give the away the farm.

I also don't think PLD is worth $8m.

 

[The Great Weal]

I agree that a Dubois trade should occur only if he can sign a fair contract. I don't think that will be an issue however if he really wants to come here.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Team finally has a deepening farm team, and finally is tanking during a deep draft year instead of terrible ones and people want to sell the farm for a 65 point player and give him $8m-$9m for it.

Who is saying sell the farm, and where is 9M coming from? There's no way that they give him more than Larkin, and I'd be surprised if it was even over 8.25. Is Anderson/Dvorak, a 17th pick and someone like Harris selling the farm? The entire point of this is because the player could be available for below market price like Trouba. Adding Dubois doesn't change our own 1st either, so what does finally tanking have to do with anything? These two goals are not in opposition.

The problem with your analysis is that you assume that the Habs futures will all be playing with the Habs, and that draft picks and prospects only have value if they play for the organization who drafted them. Teams rebuilding build assets of youth to find great players, but also because youth packages can be used to trade for veteran players the team covets.

Sure, if I had perfect future knowledge and could know that we could land a Dach type deal every year for the next 2-3 seasons I would rather go that route. I just don't think it makes much sense to pass on the already finished product for the hope that in 2-3 years we'll be able to line up a series of better trades for assets when this trade fills a hole at 2C or LW (and by extension RW given it would free up Dach to play with Caufield and Suzuki more often). This guy's available, he's 24, he'll come relatively cheap, I'm not gonna let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

I think this reasoning is also a bit circular because trading for Dubois just makes it even easier to trade youth away in the future if needed. If we add Dubois the idea of trading someone like Beck for a goalie or a great right-shot defender becomes much more attractive as we don't have to worry about a 3C succession plan anymore, and so on.

So should the Habs not trade for PLD now (because they're a terrible team that already has many high contract players it needs to jettison), and wait instead until they have a team ready to actually compete (which my guess is that will be in 2-3 years), at that time they can go and trade for whoever they need at that precise time and use the futures they've accumulated.

We don't actually have all that many big contract players left, particularly if you're placing a 2-3 year timeline on when we can contend. The only players currently signed for 25-26 are Suzuki, Gallagher, Anderson, Matheson, and Dach, and we can assume Caufield as well. Gallagher is on the fast track to LTIR, and one of Anderson or Dvorak would be included in this trade. Most of the other vet bloat will be long gone by then as we currently only have two years left of Dvorak, Armia, and Savard, and just one year left for Hoffman.

Slafkovsky, Guhle, and Harris will be RFAs going into that year alongside potentially our 1st rounder this year if it's Bedard/Fantilli, so it's either not going to be a problem financially or it will be a very good "problem" to have if all of those guys are worth so much money we can't afford them with only Gallagher and Matheson left on the cap sheet as 30+ vet contracts.

Signing PLD to a big contract now is a gamble the Habs don't need to make. They would be placing all their eggs into the PLD basket, when the Habs don't need that basket for another few years. With a huge bucket of youth to trade in a few years, the Habs will have plenty of options to trade for vets that address whatever needs they have at that moment, but roster veterans tied to high value contracts will stifle those options.

I guess I just don't really consider it a gamble given he's coming at a cheaper price than those future hypothetical options. It's possible that in 3 years there's some absolutely perfect fit that we miss out on because of Dubois but I think it's also just as likely that in 3 years we're looking at other players that are in the same basic tier. Also means we avoid a Horvat situation where you add a guy and then he takes time to adjust to the new team etc. To me, the gamble is hoping that our future picks and future trade opportunities give us a better chance than this.

But since you said that you feel that PLD would be a core piece, you are probably fine with that gamble and then absolutely if the Habs brass feel that way, that will be why they make that move. Personally I have never been all that impressed by PLD so for me I would wait and see.

I don't think he's some stud but I think he's a capable top 6 C and would be a great fit either at 2C or on the wing for us. Ultimately I just don't really think the expected value supports holding off for the hope we'll find something even better for cheaper later. We already have Suzuki on what will become a long term value deal, we got Dach for a steal, and we're going to have a ton of ELCs. Not every contract needs to be a steal, and the trade itself is going to heavily favour us.

They’re not trying to accelerate the rebuild. People misunderstand what they’re trying to say. When they talk about acquiring a young player to ‘’accelerate’’ things they mean getting a young 20-21 year old already in the league or close to be still in development like Dach, compared to a 18 years old who’s still at least 2 years away + the development process in the NHL. So the young players we have can mostly be ready at the same time in 3 years. If that makes sense.

It makes sense, but I just don't really buy that Dach 2.0 type trades are the only thing they're looking at, and I think this line of reasoning gets the motivations on Dubois backwards. The Habs aren't head over heels in love with this special unicorn player and desperate to acquire him at any cost. They're interested because he is potentially available for a significant discount on the normal trade cost in the same way Trouba was for the Rangers. The price changes the calculus entirely because it eliminates the opportunity cost in futures that would normally be associated with trading for a player in his prime.

Suzuki, Caufield, PLD and Dach with a few additions will be enough to bring us back to the same mediocre crap we’ve seen since the last 20 or whatever years. If you want to guarantee you’re competing for a wild card spot on a yearly basis, spend stupidly on the Dubois’s of the NHL and ensure you’re never competing with the best of the division, much less the conference/league

"With a few additions" is kinda oversimplifying things. Those few additions include a really deep prospect pool where if only one guy overachieves we're in great shape, and includes a 1st overall, likely 5th overall, and another approx top 10 pick next year too. It's not like we have an empty system beyond what's currently on the roster, nor is this the only move we're going to make. Montreal has nearly 20 million available to spend this summer and not much other than Caufield coming up in the short term.

 

[FerrisRox]

In all fairness even McDavid was unable to get his team to the playoffs for the longest time or past the 1st round (thus far) when they did qualify…. until the team was made stronger

The Oilers made the playoffs his second year in the league and they advanced past the first round that season too.

 

[SpeedyPotato]

Ryder, Halak, and a second! Let's get this done

As much as everyone was laughing at that offer then, it's pretty freaking good when you realize what Halak and Ryder turned out to become