Blue Jays Discussion: It's here! it's here! it's here! it's here! Baseball season begins!(WARNING:post 728)

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Sadly I think both might. But I think Sanchez starts to show his potential.

Of course its completely possible for Estrada and Happ to be mediocre, but those who have decided to almost bank on material regression from their 2015 performances seem to be doing so, well, because they're J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada. I'm bullish on both being closer to 2015 performance than say 2014 as an example.

Something interesting on Marco.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-starting-pitcher-ball-in-play-retrospective-al-east/

First of all, the “tru” ERA ranking of the AL East hurlers is quite interesting. How many of you had your money on Marco Estrada for the top spot? Well, if you read some of my previous work on him, you’re probably not that surprised. FIP doesn’t give him enough credit for his very high pop-up rate or the relatively weak, high-exit-angle fly balls he allows. He’s very difficult to square the ball up against; his liner rate was over two standard deviations below league average last season, way down in the second percentile. This wasn’t a one-year blip in that very volatile category: his liner rate hasn’t been higher than the 16th percentile in any of the last three seasons. Is there risk here? Sure. He allows so many fly balls that if the exit angles creep downward and the exit velocities increase, the damage could be stark and sudden. For now, though, the 2015 AL Contact Manager of the Year rates as a safely above-average starter, albeit one likely to regress a bit this season.

 

[Discoverer]

Of course its completely possible for Estrada and Happ to be mediocre, but those who have decided to almost bank on material regression from their 2015 performances seem to be doing so, well, because they're J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada. I'm bullish on both being closer to 2015 performance than say 2014 as an example.

Careful... if you say Happ's name three times, it summons zeke.

The nice thing is, if they revert to career averages, they'll both be decent back-end starters. If the gains they made last year are even slightly sustainable, those contracts look really nice. If last year was completely real (which I highly, highly doubt), then they're an absolute bargain.

 

[Woodman19]

Straily on waivers. Would love if he made it through to us, but odds are he will be claimed before we can get him.

 

[Discoverer]

Straily on waivers. Would love if he made it through to us, but odds are he will be claimed before we can get him.

I guess they could use him as a ROOGY or try to claim him and then sneak him through waivers.

 

[TF97]

Due to me being out most of tomorrow, I'll start taking guesses for my first homer of the year contest.

I'll kick it off and pick Justin Smoak

 

[Muston Atthews]

As for who hits the first homerun of the blue Jays regular season, I'll say Saunders

 

[Suntouchable13]

Jose Bautista in his first AB of the year goes deep off Archer. You know he is extremely motivated and hungry. He'll be pumped up big time for his first AB of the season.

 

[zeke]

Of course its completely possible for Estrada and Happ to be mediocre, but those who have decided to almost bank on material regression from their 2015 performances seem to be doing so, well, because they're J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada. I'm bullish on both being closer to 2015 performance than say 2014 as an example.

Something interesting on Marco.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-starting-pitcher-ball-in-play-retrospective-al-east/

That is encouraging.

I'm going to still bet that Marco pitches to his career norms as an SP this year, which is still solid, but nice to see that a number calculated off of underlying numbers can still rank him that high last year.

But I'll never have faith in Happ.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Due to me being out most of tomorrow, I'll start taking guesses for my first homer of the year contest.

I'll kick it off and pick Justin Smoak

As for who hits the first homerun of the blue Jays regular season, I'll say Saunders

Jose Bautista in his first AB of the year goes deep off Archer. You know he is extremely motivated and hungry. He'll be pumped up big time for his first AB of the season.

Added a poll

 

[Canada4Gold]

Tulo

 

[King Mapes]

Do you folks see the Jays winning the division, barring injuries?

Well winning it last year automatically makes us favorites. Red Sox likely won't be very good. We have potential to run away with it tbh.

The "no ace" thing is grossly overrated because:

a) Lots of teams show you don't definitively need one to win. Like Kansas City, for example.

b) it's an assertion that precludes the idea that Stroman just might be that ace.

Well I mean we don't NEED one but it certainly helps. 200+ innings with a low ERA would be huge to our team. As much as I like Stroman I don't see him being an ace but rather a very good number 2 and there's nothing wrong with that. Of course, he could be though. I think Sanchez might become an ace if he learned to control his pitches more.

 

[Discoverer]

I picked Encarnacion. I was really tempted to pick Pillar leading off the game on Sunday, but I have a hard time seeing it against Archer.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Well winning it last year automatically makes us favorites. Red Sox likely won't be very good. We have potential to run away with it tbh.



Well I mean we don't NEED one but it certainly helps. 200+ innings with a low ERA would be huge to our team. As much as I like Stroman I don't see him being an ace but rather a very good number 2 and there's nothing wrong with that. Of course, he could be though. I think Sanchez might become an ace if he learned to control his pitches more.

I'm curious as to why.

 

[Eyedea]

Tulo, and I'll assume nobody is hitting a homer off Archer.

 

[TootooTrain]

 

[Bravid Nonahan]

All that proves to me is that he has grown tremendously as a player. It's not like he was an all-star with the pirates. He was a 4th outfielder / bench player who "got it" in a very short period of time. Luckily it was with the Jays.

The Jays are also lucky with Encarnacion considering Anthopoulous put him on Waivers at one point.

 

[TootooTrain]

I wasn't trying to make it seem like he was greater than he was. We all know his rags to riches story. Just found the plate discipline part funny considering he has one of the best eyes in baseball.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Yeah, that's an oddly aggressive reaction.

That scouting report does to speak to the importance of a young hitter receiving as many at-bats as possible during their development.

Also reminds me of when I got to see young Jose when he played for the Curve. It was him, Rajai Davis, Paul Maholm and Tom Gorzelanny. Sigh...summer days.

 

[TootooTrain]

I guess they could use him as a ROOGY or try to claim him and then sneak him through waivers.

The A's should re-ignite that relationship. They're chucking out Doubront every 5th day.

 

[rojac]

Issues with the current title:

* Shouldn't it be "Montreal Games v3"? This is the third year of Montreal games.
* The Friday game is indeed at 7 pm ET; however, the Saturday game is at 1 pm ET.

 

[Discoverer]

I wasn't trying to make it seem like he was greater than he was. We all know his rags to riches story. Just found the plate discipline part funny considering he has one of the best eyes in baseball.

It's also kind of funny that, until that point in his minor league career, he had a combined 10.8% walk rate.

Obviously stats don't tell you everything, and walking a lot doesn't automatically equate to good plate discipline, but... it's still a bit odd.

 

[Acekicker123]

All that proves to me is that he has grown tremendously as a player. It's not like he was an all-star with the pirates. He was a 4th outfielder / bench player who "got it" in a very short period of time. Luckily it was with the Jays.

The Jays are also lucky with Encarnacion considering Anthopoulous put him on Waivers at one point.

The career .375 OBP in the minor leagues certainly demonstrated flashes of that potential.

So interesting to follow hitters that "broke out" later in their careers and find that so many of them demonstrated great OBP skills in the minors as one of the first signs that they could be something special.

 

[zeke]

I wasn't trying to make it seem like he was greater than he was. We all know his rags to riches story. Just found the plate discipline part funny considering he has one of the best eyes in baseball.

no joke - it's racism.

hard swinging hispanic = no discipline

 

[zeke]

Some confirmation of what Spring Training stats might actually mean something, and which Blue Jay may have shown a legit improvement:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-real-winners-of-spring-training/#comment-5110155

 

[King Mapes]

I'm curious as to why.

You won't like my response likely. But I'll give it.

His size might hold him back. I know I know it's beating a dead horse and he's proven he's capable. My issue is, due to his size, he might have trouble consistently throwing 200 innings.

I absolutely love the kid. I own a jersey, a hat and a shirt (the new Spring Training one) of his. But hey, go ahead prove me wrong Stro-Show. Please. Out of all the Jays, beside Donaldson he's my favorite. I know people will argue others have done it and I realize this but there isn't a whole lot. But hey, Id love him to do it. I disagree with Zaun saying he'll be a BP guy he's too good. If he is a very good number 2 who might not throw 200 innings, we should still be happy.

I also await the response I know this post is going to get