Blue Jays Discussion: It's here! it's here! it's here! it's here! Baseball season begins!(WARNING:post 728)

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Woodman19

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I didn't catch the full segment, but on the fan at lunch Blair was mentioning how Pompey really impressed Shapiro this spring and thinks he's a huge part of our future going forward. Also mentioned how Shapiro has more trust from ownership than Beeston had and won't have any trouble getting anyone mid season.
 

zeke

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You won't like my response likely. But I'll give it.

His size might hold him back. I know I know it's beating a dead horse and he's proven he's capable. My issue is, due to his size, he might have trouble consistently throwing 200 innings.

I absolutely love the kid. I own a jersey, a hat and a shirt (the new Spring Training one) of his. But hey, go ahead prove me wrong Stro-Show. Please. Out of all the Jays, beside Donaldson he's my favorite. I know people will argue others have done it and I realize this but there isn't a whole lot. But hey, Id love him to do it. I disagree with Zaun saying he'll be a BP guy he's too good. If he is a very good number 2 who might not throw 200 innings, we should still be happy.

I also await the response I know this post is going to get :laugh:

does being short make you weak?
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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You won't like my response likely. But I'll give it.

His size might hold him back. I know I know it's beating a dead horse and he's proven he's capable. My issue is, due to his size, he might have trouble consistently throwing 200 innings.

I absolutely love the kid. I own a jersey, a hat and a shirt (the new Spring Training one) of his. But hey, go ahead prove me wrong Stro-Show. Please. Out of all the Jays, beside Donaldson he's my favorite. I know people will argue others have done it and I realize this but there isn't a whole lot. But hey, Id love him to do it. I disagree with Zaun saying he'll be a BP guy he's too good. If he is a very good number 2 who might not throw 200 innings, we should still be happy.

I also await the response I know this post is going to get :laugh:

I understand that. It hasn't occurred very often that slighter or shorter pitchers have been able to consistently produce 200 IP seasons repeatedly. Its human nature to look at a non-traditional frame, or something we're not used to seeing, and then believing that that thing will buck a trend that's existed for decades.

That said, Marcus Stroman is an extremely athletic, extremely well built, durable 5"8 (very similar to Nate Robison, who was one of the most underrated athletes of this generation). His mechanics are tremendous, repeatable, and consistent. His velocity is generated from his lower half, and his ability to spin the baseball (leaving very little torque on his elbow and shoulder). His movement is product of this ability to spin the baseball as well. In terms of pitching, and his durability thereof, I have more confidence in him holding up than some other young pitchers with more traditional starter frames (i.e. Noah Syndergaard, Jake deGrom, Taijuan Walker for example). His ability to spin the ball reminds me of Pedro Martinez, who was able to be very durable over many years despite being 5"11 and a slight 195lbs. Couple that with his ability to generate groundballs, and you're talking more innings with less pitch count.

In terms of talent, he's already proven over his first 24 major league starts (as well as his performance in Double-A NH) that his skillset ranks him among the top twenty starters in baseball today. His ERA- and FIP- (and the average thereof) over that span (2014-2015) places him 15th in all of baseball. That's not even baking into the formula the idea that he could improve. That's out of the box, as is.

Disclaimer: this post in response to anyone with doubts, but mostly what I would hit Zaun with in a debate if they ever let me tear him a new ********. You're entitled to your opinion, and your wait and see approach is a logical one :).
 

Discoverer

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I understand that. It hasn't occurred very often that slighter or shorter pitchers have been able to consistently produce 200 IP seasons repeatedly. Its human nature to look at a non-traditional frame, or something we're not used to seeing, and then believing that that thing will buck a trend that's existed for decades.

That said, Marcus Stroman is an extremely athletic, extremely well built, durable 5"8 (very similar to Nate Robison, who was one of the most underrated athletes of this generation). His mechanics are tremendous, repeatable, and consistent. His velocity is generated from his lower half, and his ability to spin the baseball (leaving very little torque on his elbow and shoulder). His movement is product of this ability to spin the baseball as well. In terms of pitching, and his durability thereof, I have more confidence in him holding up than some other young pitchers with more traditional starter frames (i.e. Noah Syndergaard, Jake deGrom, Taijuan Walker for example). His ability to spin the ball reminds me of Pedro Martinez, who was able to be very durable over many years despite being 5"11 and a slight 195lbs. Couple that with his ability to generate groundballs, and you're talking more innings with less pitch count.

In terms of talent, he's already proven over his first 24 major league starts (as well as his performance in Double-A NH) that his skillset ranks him among the top twenty starters in baseball today. His ERA- and FIP- (and the average thereof) over that span (2014-2015) places him 15th in all of baseball. That's not even baking into the formula the idea that he could improve. That's out of the box, as is.

Disclaimer: this post in response to anyone with doubts, but mostly what I would hit Zaun with in a debate if they ever let me tear him a new ********. You're entitled to your opinion, and your wait and see approach is a logical one :).

Zaun's rebuttal: "But he's short and Tom Gordon!"
 

zeke

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I understand that. It hasn't occurred very often that slighter or shorter pitchers have been able to consistently produce 200 IP seasons repeatedly. Its human nature to look at a non-traditional frame, or something we're not used to seeing, and then believing that that thing will buck a trend that's existed for decades.

That said, Marcus Stroman is an extremely athletic, extremely well built, durable 5"8 (very similar to Nate Robison, who was one of the most underrated athletes of this generation). His mechanics are tremendous, repeatable, and consistent. His velocity is generated from his lower half, and his ability to spin the baseball (leaving very little torque on his elbow and shoulder). His movement is product of this ability to spin the baseball as well. In terms of pitching, and his durability thereof, I have more confidence in him holding up than some other young pitchers with more traditional starter frames (i.e. Noah Syndergaard, Jake deGrom, Taijuan Walker for example). His ability to spin the ball reminds me of Pedro Martinez, who was able to be very durable over many years despite being 5"11 and a slight 195lbs. Couple that with his ability to generate groundballs, and you're talking more innings with less pitch count.

In terms of talent, he's already proven over his first 24 major league starts (as well as his performance in Double-A NH) that his skillset ranks him among the top twenty starters in baseball today. His ERA- and FIP- (and the average thereof) over that span (2014-2015) places him 15th in all of baseball. That's not even baking into the formula the idea that he could improve. That's out of the box, as is.

I get stuck comparing him to Pedro often. Also reminds me of Halladay. Nice comps. His stuff + pitchability really does seem that rare.

And to add to your last sentence there, we've already seen that improvement:

Sts 1-8: 5.9ip/gs, 22.5k%, 6.3bb%, 47.0gb%, 8.5hr/fb%, .282babip, 74era-, 84fip-
Sts 9-16: 5.8ip/gs, 20.0k%, 6.3bb%, 56.5gb%, 2.9hr/fb%, .304babip, 100era-, 68fip-
Sts 17-24: 7.3ip/gs, 19.8k%, 4.1bb%, 61.3gb%, 8.8hr/fb%, .273babip, 55era-, 70fip-

The most recent third of his career starts are ridiculous. And don't depend on anything glaringly unsustainable.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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I get stuck comparing him to Pedro often. Also reminds me of Halladay. Nice comps. His stuff + pitchability really does seem that rare.

And to add to your last sentence there, we've already seen that improvement:

Sts 1-8: 5.9ip/gs, 22.5k%, 6.3bb%, 47.0gb%, 8.5hr/fb%, .282babip, 74era-, 84fip-
Sts 9-16: 5.8ip/gs, 20.0k%, 6.3bb%, 56.5gb%, 2.9hr/fb%, .304babip, 100era-, 68fip-
Sts 17-24: 7.3ip/gs, 19.8k%, 4.1bb%, 61.3gb%, 8.8hr/fb%, .273babip, 55era-, 70fip-

The most recent third of his career starts are ridiculous. And don't depend on anything glaringly unsustainable.

He took off when he began throwing the sinker as his primary pitch rather than the four-seamer. If you look at the best starters in the league currently, there's no RHP like him (i.e. Ground ball rate, K%, etc.). The closest comp I can find on what his stats may end up looking like in 2016 is Dallas Keuchel. GB%, K/9, BB/9 will all be in line IMO. Though the innings will be lower.
 

Discoverer

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Since it's the time of year to make all kinds of wild, overly optimistic predictions: Marcus Stroman finishes in the top 3 in Cy Young voting.
 

Petes

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Jun 23, 2014
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Donaldson first HR, 2nd time through the order.

Pillar strikes out swinging on 3 pitches to start game vs Archer.
 

zeke

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He took off when he began throwing the sinker as his primary pitch rather than the four-seamer.

Also when they started taking the reins off him and let him go deeper into games.


If you look at the best starters in the league currently, there's no RHP like him (i.e. Ground ball rate, K%, etc.). The closest comp I can find on what his stats may end up looking like in 2016 is Dallas Keuchel. GB%, K/9, BB/9 will all be in line IMO. Though the innings will be lower.

which is why I keep going back to Roy. Not only is the arsenal of 4-5 nasty moving tumbling pitches with command similar enough, but the same tendency to sacrifice Ks for GBs allowing them to go deeper into games as well.

Roy Career: 18.8k%, 5.2bb%, 54.1gb%

Keuchel makes for an interesting comp but imo he's much more a soft tosser than Stroman is. Much less room for error.
 

Bad News Benning

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Since it's the time of year to make all kinds of wild, overly optimistic predictions: Marcus Stroman finishes in the top 3 in Cy Young voting.

I think he will definitely have the wins for it (eventhough wins shouldn't be a factor it does play a role). Should rack up 18-21 wins which would put him in the conversation. If he posts a sub 3 ERA he will be a major contender. His K totals might not be up there but that depends on how many times he gets to face the Orioles.
 

The Nemesis

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http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/seasonpreview_wsbluejays/why-toronto-blue-jays-win-world-series

Jayson Stark picks the Jays as his WS favorite.


As for the rest of the ESPN crew:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page...mpredictions/mlb-team-predictions-2016-season

only 12 of their 31 reporters/analysts pick someone other than the Jays to win the AL East. The holdouts are:

Tony Blengino (former Mariners front office member, Fangraphs writer) (Yankees)
Tristan Cockcroft (senior fantasy baseball writer) (Yankees)
Eric Karabell (senior fantasy sports writer) (Red Sox)
Andrew Marchand (senior writer for ESPN New York) (Red Sox)
Pedro Gomez (general baseball reporter, Florida native) (Rays)
Eddie Matz (Nationals writer) (Red Sox)
Doug Padilla (Dodgers writer) (Red Sox)
Jesse Rogers (Cubs writer) (Red Sox)
Mark Saxon (Rays)
Mark Simon (Red Sox)
Dan Szymborski (Red Sox)

Of the 12 that didn't have the Jays winning the division, 5 predict them to miss the playoffs entirely (if it matters, those 5 are Yankees writer Mark Simon, Cubs writer Jesse Rogers, fantasy baseball writer Tristan Cockcroft, Fangraphs writer/ex-Mariners front office member Tony Blengino, and baseball analytics writer Dan Szymborski)

8 writers pick the Jays to win the AL pennant (Jim Caple, Christina Kahrl, Scott Lauber, Jon Sciambi, Jayson Stark, Katie Strang, and homer votes from Dan Shulman and Adnan Virk), and 4 of those pick them to win the world series (Caple, Lauber, Stark, and Virk. Shulman turned traitor and picked the Cubs :sarcasm:)

The total WS votes are as follows:

Cubs: 14
Blue Jays: 4
Royals: 4
Astros: 3
Mets: 2
Giants: 2
Nationals: 1
Rangers: 1
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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Also when they started taking the reins off him and let him go deeper into games.




which is why I keep going back to Roy. Not only is the arsenal of 4-5 nasty moving tumbling pitches with command similar enough, but the same tendency to sacrifice Ks for GBs allowing them to go deeper into games as well.

Roy Career: 18.8k%, 5.2bb%, 54.1gb%

Keuchel makes for an interesting comp but imo he's much more a soft tosser than Stroman is. Much less room for error.

Oh the pitching styles don't match at all. Agreed on that. Its the numbers moreso I'm speaking to.

That's the thing about Stroman. He's throwing his plus sinker at 92-93, his plus 4-seam at 93-94; then you have the plus slider...then you have the plus curveball...before you even get to the show me cutter or change up.

Doc is a good comparison, but even when he was getting the groundball rates that I expect Stroman to produce, he wasn't striking out more than 7 per 9 innings. Only in 2008 was it close (53.7% GB%, 7.54 k/9).
 

zeke

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I like using K% as it's a bit more accurate than K/9....and Roy's 18.8% is probably pretty much the same as Stro's 20.3% when you factor in how much strikeouts have risen in baseball in general since then. Actually might be better.
 

King Mapes

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does being short make you weak?

Where did I say that? But it's obviously more difficult since their arms are smaller, etc. Yes, they have made it before (Pedro Martinez immediately comes to my mind) but it's not exactly common. Then again, Stroman is extremely athletic. But we'll see I guess.
 

Discoverer

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"Yes"

-5'10 Gregg Zaun

You just don't get it, do you? Height is only important for pitchers. Oh right, except relievers. It's only important for starting pitchers. But not Pedro, of course. Or Cueto or Lincecum or Colon, they don't count either.

I figured it out: height doesn't have any bearing on anything unless you're a starting pitcher under 5'10", which is the exact cutoff at which height becomes important, but only for that position and that specific role.
 

Clark4Ever

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McCown just mentioned that Travis might be out until at least August and could conceivably miss the entire regular season.

I thought it was 4-6 weeks?
 

Discoverer

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McCown just mentioned that Travis might be out until at least August and could conceivably miss the entire regular season.

I thought it was 4-6 weeks?

I don't know the context and I didn't hear it, but the first word of your post made me roll my eyes.
 
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