Blue Jays Discussion: It's a bird, it's a plane, it's Kevin Pillar!

[metafour]

I can't wait to hear what kind of sustained success were they on the verge of? *Hint* they weren't. People have been saying what you have been saying for literally 2 decades.

This team very easily could have been on a Cubs-like path had they went in another direction. Here is what happened: we traded Halladay and went into "rebuilding" mode, but almost immediately after that Bautista and then Encarnacion became star players (superstar in Bautista), so the team never even fully tanked. Nevertheless we built a farm system that ranked 4th in 2011 and then 5th in 2012 (BA). Because the team actually started competing quickly, we decided to sell the farm to build around the Bautista/Encarnacion window which came out of nowhere. Now, the other path that was absolutely there would have been to sell Bautista and Encarnacion while they both had years of control left at their peaks. Those two trades alone on top of what we already had (a top 5 system) would have created a #1 system scenario. Without Bautista and Encarnacion the team would have tanked completely which would have led to multiple top 3-5 picks; further adding elite talent to what would have been an absurd farm system. At this point we could have kept the best players and traded excess for MLB talent, ideally talent that wasn't ancient (which is what AA did when he panicked and went into buy mode).

We were easily on a Cubs/Astros type path. Both of those teams are now much more competitive than us and have a brighter future overall in the long-term.

 

[Eyedea]

Jordan Romano with a stellar start for Dunedin. 6 innings of 4 hit ball with no walks and 9 strikeouts. I know he's old for the league but his path is pretty awesome and I hope he continues to succeed. JUCO starter with a 10.89 BB/9 to a D1 closer, signed in 2014 with a $25,000 bonus, had a terrific start to his pro career in rookie ball, ended up getting TJS in 2015, comes back in 2016 for Lansing and dominates as a starter.

 

[Lightsol]

However, new President's are typically brought in on badly losing teams in which the GM was clearly toast either way, which wasn't the case at all when Shapiro came on

Weren't the Jays under .500 and staring another losing season in the face when Shapiro was first chosen to be the new President? I know before the trade deadline 2015 practically everybody expected AA to be canned at the end of the year for 5 years of nothing...

 

[ShaneFalco]

Do you give Latos another start or call someone up (ie Bolsinger)

 

[phillipmike]

And that's exactly my point. Developing multiple 0-1 WAR players isn't a good example of a team constantly churning out talent because those players, while they're certainly cost-efficient, don't provide any better value than, say, a waiver wire claim like Chris Colabello or a minor league free agent like Ezequiel Carrera, both of whom were acquired for nothing and came in with multiple pre-arb years.

Cheap bench players coming from within the system is a good thing, but it's no better (or harder to find, or more expensive) than finding them in other ways.

Oh for sure. Developing 0-1 WAR players is a waste of time but over that 10 year period the Red Sox added at least 7 all star players with the possibility of 4 more being added to that list. We arent just talking 0-1 WAR players rather a few 0-1 WAR players added to a system that churned out 7 position player all stars with the potential of having 4 more in 10 years and that doesnt include the pitching they had graduate. If the Red Sox were adding 1-2 All Stars with multiple 0-1 WAR players then they would be getting my criticism too.

Just showing that you could be good at drafting and developing both pitchers and position players. Again i would take AA back and his strategy in building a team in a heartbeat even with his lack of developing position players but doesnt mean he isnt fair game to criticize.

The same argument can be made for AA as he had an unreal 5-6 years churning out Syndergaard, Sanchez, Stroman, Hoffman, Boyd, Norris, Dyson, Nicolino, DeSclafani, Musgrove, and Graveman. But in those same years we pretty much only have Pillar, Pompey and Hech to show for it. Criticism is warranted.

In the end you want a better balance but considering the talent he brought in from a pitching standpoint its still better than most teams so you have to be happy with that. Look at a team like Baltimore and Tampa over the last 5-6 years; basically just Machado, Bundy and Gausman and they were all top 5 picks so not that impressive. Tampa we got Kevin Kiermaier and Snell.

Wat? now you're counting traded prospects? and 0.2war players? and negative war players?

Does that mean I should be counting Gose (1.3 w/jays since 2014), Pompey (0.4), Burns(0.0), Goins (-0.2), Sierra (-0.5), Hechavarria (traded), Hutchison (3.6), Loup (0.7), Barnes (0.5), Graveman (0.1), Norris (0.0), Castro (-0.1), Boyd (-0.4), Hoffman (traded)?

Like i said we are only discussing position players drafted by the team. I already mentioned Pompey and Hech which isnt anything great but turning Hech in that Marlins trade was useful. You can add Goins and Sierra too if you like but doesnt improve his resume all that much.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

This team very easily could have been on a Cubs-like path had they went in another direction. Here is what happened: we traded Halladay and went into "rebuilding" mode, but almost immediately after that Bautista and then Encarnacion became star players (superstar in Bautista), so the team never even fully tanked. Nevertheless we built a farm system that ranked 4th in 2011 and then 5th in 2012 (BA). Because the team actually started competing quickly, we decided to sell the farm to build around the Bautista/Encarnacion window which came out of nowhere. Now, the other path that was absolutely there would have been to sell Bautista and Encarnacion while they both had years of control left at their peaks. Those two trades alone on top of what we already had (a top 5 system) would have created a #1 system scenario. Without Bautista and Encarnacion the team would have tanked completely which would have led to multiple top 3-5 picks; further adding elite talent to what would have been an absurd farm system. At this point we could have kept the best players and traded excess for MLB talent, ideally talent that wasn't ancient (which is what AA did when he panicked and went into buy mode).

We were easily on a Cubs/Astros type path. Both of those teams are now much more competitive than us and have a brighter future overall in the long-term.

That's a lot of if's. I'm not saying that hypothesis is incorrect, but assuming those hypotheticals turn the Jays into the Cubs/Stros is a jump.

The hypothetical game is fun though. You can make even less of a leap and say that if AA (and crew ) was slightly better at evaluating position player talent, Corey Seager and Trea Turner would be Blue Jays right now.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

So SRF has been pretty horrendous. 3 walks and 4 runs in two thirds of an inning before getting the hook. Hopefully he can find 2016 SRF because right now he is looking like 2015 SRF lol the good news at least is it seems like Rowdy is starting to come around, slightly predictably after his usual slow start which he had a really low BABIP as well. But the Jays AA team just looks like a really bad team lol

 

[Suntouchable13]

This team very easily could have been on a Cubs-like path had they went in another direction. Here is what happened: we traded Halladay and went into "rebuilding" mode, but almost immediately after that Bautista and then Encarnacion became star players (superstar in Bautista), so the team never even fully tanked. Nevertheless we built a farm system that ranked 4th in 2011 and then 5th in 2012 (BA). Because the team actually started competing quickly, we decided to sell the farm to build around the Bautista/Encarnacion window which came out of nowhere. Now, the other path that was absolutely there would have been to sell Bautista and Encarnacion while they both had years of control left at their peaks. Those two trades alone on top of what we already had (a top 5 system) would have created a #1 system scenario. Without Bautista and Encarnacion the team would have tanked completely which would have led to multiple top 3-5 picks; further adding elite talent to what would have been an absurd farm system. At this point we could have kept the best players and traded excess for MLB talent, ideally talent that wasn't ancient (which is what AA did when he panicked and went into buy mode).

We were easily on a Cubs/Astros type path. Both of those teams are now much more competitive than us and have a brighter future overall in the long-term.

There are no guarantees. I would rather them take the chance, go all in instead of waiting for something that may never come. They did not win, but you take the chance. IF they won the WS, all this would have been 10 times less painful.

 

[Discoverer]

The only AA move I view as a real miss was overvaluing Dickey. Any other trades he made that ended up looking bad made sense at the time (Gomes, Napoli), and the draft is enough of a crapshoot that the only "misses" worth being upset about are the really egregious reaches.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

The only AA move I view as a real miss was overvaluing Dickey. Any other trades he made that ended up looking bad made sense at the time (Gomes, Napoli), and the draft is enough of a crapshoot that the only "misses" worth being upset about are the really egregious reaches.

Yeah the Dickey trade was really the only move that was pretty much a glaringly awful trade the moment he made it. I just wish some people could find a middle ground between blindly shilling everything AA did and hating everything the new regime does and hating on everything AA did and blindly following everything this regime does(though admittedly this is a rather small group lol) Like AA made good moves to get the team into contention but he had his down falls it is alright to admit that out loud.

 

[zeke]

This team very easily could have been on a Cubs-like path had they went in another direction. Here is what happened: we traded Halladay and went into "rebuilding" mode, but almost immediately after that Bautista and then Encarnacion became star players (superstar in Bautista), so the team never even fully tanked. Nevertheless we built a farm system that ranked 4th in 2011 and then 5th in 2012 (BA). Because the team actually started competing quickly, we decided to sell the farm to build around the Bautista/Encarnacion window which came out of nowhere. Now, the other path that was absolutely there would have been to sell Bautista and Encarnacion while they both had years of control left at their peaks. Those two trades alone on top of what we already had (a top 5 system) would have created a #1 system scenario. Without Bautista and Encarnacion the team would have tanked completely which would have led to multiple top 3-5 picks; further adding elite talent to what would have been an absurd farm system. At this point we could have kept the best players and traded excess for MLB talent, ideally talent that wasn't ancient (which is what AA did when he panicked and went into buy mode).

We were easily on a Cubs/Astros type path. Both of those teams are now much more competitive than us and have a brighter future overall in the long-term.

again, cubs have 2 guys they drafted that were significant contributors last year or this year so far.

 

[zeke]

AA was an awful GM

So glad he left
Crippled our farm system for a run in the playoffs

our farm system is in pretty spectacular shape right now.

 

[zeke]

I prefer sustained success

AA decides to cripple the farm system and then bolt from the organization to make himself look like a hero for 2 playoff runs

Our farm system is killing it.

 

[zeke]

Oh for sure. Developing 0-1 WAR players is a waste of time but over that 10 year period the Red Sox added at least 7 all star players with the possibility of 4 more being added to that list. We arent just talking 0-1 WAR players rather a few 0-1 WAR players added to a system that churned out 7 position player all stars with the potential of having 4 more in 10 years and that doesnt include the pitching they had graduate. If the Red Sox were adding 1-2 All Stars with multiple 0-1 WAR players then they would be getting my criticism too.

Just showing that you could be good at drafting and developing both pitchers and position players. Again i would take AA back and his strategy in building a team in a heartbeat even with his lack of developing position players but doesnt mean he isnt fair game to criticize.

The same argument can be made for AA as he had an unreal 5-6 years churning out Syndergaard, Sanchez, Stroman, Hoffman, Boyd, Norris, Dyson, Nicolino, DeSclafani, Musgrove, and Graveman. But in those same years we pretty much only have Pillar, Pompey and Hech to show for it. Criticism is warranted.

In the end you want a better balance but considering the talent he brought in from a pitching standpoint its still better than most teams so you have to be happy with that. Look at a team like Baltimore and Tampa over the last 5-6 years; basically just Machado, Bundy and Gausman and they were all top 5 picks so not that impressive. Tampa we got Kevin Kiermaier and Snell.



Like i said we are only discussing position players drafted by the team. I already mentioned Pompey and Hech which isnt anything great but turning Hech in that Marlins trade was useful. You can add Goins and Sierra too if you like but doesnt improve his resume all that much.

Just want to reiterate that your list had a clear gap of 2-3yrs for the sox where they didn't bring up anyone of value, no matter how hard you spin it.

So far AA is one one year (2016), and we'll see if any of it turns into 2yrs this year. It almost certainly won't be 3yrs given what his guys are doing in the minors right now.

 

[Discoverer]

again, cubs have 2 guys they drafted that were significant contributors last year or this year so far.

Again, they also signed some amateur free agents and developed prospects acquired in trades.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Our farm system is killing it.

Is it really tho?

 

[Woodman19]

Is it really tho?

Boxscore scouting is all that's needed, teams should just hire accountants to track performance

 

[zeke]

I don’t think there's a system in baseball that has three talents like vladdy alford and Bichette killing it like this, and there's a ton of depth going down at least 15 strong.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Our farm system is killing it.

Killing it is a pretty strong way of describing it. It doesn't suck.

 

[zeke]

Boxscore scouting is all that's needed, teams should just hire accountants to track performance

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-team-of-the-month-april/#xwXzpSQ67IdKc6Ct.97

 

[zeke]

His ability to draft pitching was very impressive.
His ability to draft position players was nothing short of atrocious.

Thus, he ends up somewhere in the middle.

the sox and cubs haven't drafted any pitchers, so they end up somewhere in the middle.

 

[Discoverer]

the sox and cubs haven't drafted any pitchers, so they end up somewhere in the middle.

Correct.

 

[metafour]

That's a lot of if's. I'm not saying that hypothesis is incorrect, but assuming those hypotheticals turn the Jays into the Cubs/Stros is a jump.

The hypothetical game is fun though. You can make even less of a leap and say that if AA (and crew ) was slightly better at evaluating position player talent, Corey Seager and Trea Turner would be Blue Jays right now.

Its really not that many if's. This team had an elite farm system without ever picking higher than 9th; in fact most of our 1st round picks during that "stockpiling stage" were washouts except for Stroman. Trading Bautista and Encarnacion while they were 5-7 WAR players with years of control left would have brought back a killing onto what was already a ridiculously deep system. Subsequently those ~mid 1st round picks would have turned into Top 5 picks in which case you are now talking about potentially adding guys like Correa and Bryant instead of DJ Davis and Phil Bickford. When you are talking about an actually realistic scenario in which you possess that much minor league talent, you have to literally be completely incompetent to not end up with something that is at least marginally competitive.

If you think about it logically, we were doing what the Astros ended up doing before they even started down that path...and our pool would have been even deeper than theirs as they never had star-level players to trade away on the scale of Bautista/Encarnacion. The Astros now own the best record in the AL.

Again, this is a response to the guy who said that we weren't on any sort of promising path before we made those trades, which is an absolutely absurd statement. The Cubs, Astros, Red Sox...all examples of teams that hoarded elite minor league talent and used it to launch massive bounce-backs at the MLB level. We HAD that talent as well, and we could have had EVEN MORE. Do I fault them for trying to win right away when the opportunity arose? Not really, but lets not act like there wasn't an obviously clear other door as well...one that probably would have left us with a much more consistent long-term window.

 

[one77]

Our farm system is in great shape for three reasons: Vlad Jr, Bichette and Alford. Those 3 guys have elite potential and are showing it so far this year (especially Vlad and Bichette. Those 2 have a crazy high ceiling)

AA was a great GM. Did what he needed to do and built a team that could have gone to the World Series two years in a row. Other than Dickey, I have ZERO problems with any of the trades he made. In fact, I wish we still had him as GM instead of this joke of a management team we have now.

 

[Bad News Benning]

Our farm system is killing it.

That still doesn't help the jays when most of them aren't close to contributing at the major league level. There was a huge gap left at the top of the farm system when AA left and the players emerging now are still a year or two away. We needed these players last year and this year but the failure to develop position players between 2011-2015 is starting to bite the organization in the ass. When you have an aging roster with no prospect depth at the upper levels there is a very small margin for error as we are seeing this year.