Lmao firstly I think its hilarious youre quoting that I'm specifically not using numbers when I'm the guy *always* quoting numbers. I straight up use my own formula for NHLe that adjusts for player age. Not to mention I'm the guy constantly combing through underlyings on obscure league websites, comparing past production, and subscribe to the guys that track the underlyings for the CHL/NCAA and NHLe models. I also have watched quite a bit of each of our prospects, and I especially take interest in guys like Knies and Niemela.
The issue here is you're over-reliant on the production numbers and you're breaking away from the context of the situation. His numbers have *always* been impressive going back to his D-1. Issues in his D0 with sickness & injury caused him to stagnate production-wise (which allowed us to scoop him up), and he "stagnated" again this year because he's playing with like 12 top-90 draft picks. He also played with a guy I consider to be a bit of a puck hog in Cooley. When you play with great players, everyone is going to get theirs. Not to mention they don't need to be over-reliant on one line like other teams in the NCAA are forced to be. Production also doesn't take into account things like how Knies was arguably the best transition player in the NCAA based on the tracking stats and how he also creates a ridiculous amount of HD chances; which has already started showing up at the pro level. Unlike a guy like Snuggerud, Knies production wasnt based on an absurd amount of secondary points either, which is a major red flag. Production is important at junior levels as its still the best tool we have at projecting pro success, but using it on it's own as a comparative tool is asinine. We might as well crown Grebyonkin a future star F with the numbers he put up in the KHL this year. No development is linear, and looking at past examples just limit your expectations, when the ability to project a player like Knies is limitless. He has all the skill in the world, an amazing shot, and still has some things I'd love (and I'm sure the would Leafs) for him to work on like his vision and passing. There's absolutely star potential there, but I've always maintained he's a physical version of JVR- a 30 goal, 60 point player, but you know if it clicks there's more.