Is Slafkovsky the worst #1 pick ever ?

[McJedi]

Slafkovsky started his career and this season pretty slow, but his play the past month or so has seen a significant uptick in analytical performance. Both in driving possession and defensive awareness. He's playing some solid hockey lately.

I think he still probably sucks... but he sucks a lot less recently than he has at prior points in his young career. Maybe he is turning a corner?

You want to jump on a regression of a young Habs player... look at Guhle. He's been under the radar bad this season. Really bad the past two months after a solid start.

 

[Julien LG]

There are quotes out there of Montreal management telling everyone they were picking Slaf for the player he was going to be in 3-4 years. And here we are concluding he might be the worst 1st pick ever at 19 years old within his first 80 games in the nhl. Go figure.

 

[ijuka]

There are quotes out there of Montreal management telling everyone they were picking Slaf for the player he was going to be in 3-4 years. And here we are concluding he might be the worst 1st pick ever at 19 years old within his first 80 games in the nhl. Go figure.

Every NHL GM picks the first overall pick for the player he's going to be in his prime. This is completely obvious, and not some grand revelation.

What else could they say, "Yeah we picked him because he's going to be the best for the first 1 or 2 years, but we expect him to be significantly worse in about 4 years"?

 

[Guess]

Every NHL GM picks the first overall pick for the player he's going to be in his prime. This is completely obvious, and not some grand revelation.

What else could they say, "Yeah we picked him because he's going to be the best for the first 1 or 2 years, but we expect him to be significantly worse in about 4 years"?

I think what he's trying to say is, they knew he was far from the best player at the time when they drafted him.

 

[Petrus]

There are quotes out there of Montreal management telling everyone they were picking Slaf for the player he was going to be in 3-4 years. And here we are concluding he might be the worst 1st pick ever at 19 years old within his first 80 games in the nhl. Go figure.

It seems like he is 3-4 additional years away from the initial 3-4 year expectation.

 

[Julien LG]

It seems like he is 3-4 additional years away from the initial 3-4 year expectation.

You Will be proven wrong within the 3-4 years time frame.

 

[toomuchsauce]

tonight he will play Buffalo, so it's the perfect opportunity to see which 1st OA pick is worse, slafkovsky or owen powers

 

[Voight]

tonight he will play Buffalo, so it's the perfect opportunity to see which 1st OA pick is worse, slafkovsky or owen powers

Its Slaf.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

tonight he will play Buffalo, so it's the perfect opportunity to see which 1st OA pick is worse, slafkovsky or owen powers

Slafkovsky doesn't get over 8 millions next year

 

[Stickpucker]

Every NHL GM picks the first overall pick for the player he's going to be in his prime. This is completely obvious, and not some grand revelation.

What else could they say, "Yeah we picked him because he's going to be the best for the first 1 or 2 years, but we expect him to be significantly worse in about 4 years"?

Jim Rutherford said that about Jeff Skinner.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Slafkovsky doesn't get over 8 millions next year

Nor will he.

 

[HockeyWooot]

He didn't select himself as a 1OA, in a weak draft no less, not sure why all the fuss. If he was a 3-5OA would there be any issue or concern?
It's not liked he was a consensus 1OA that's long hyped as the next big generational player. There are only so many of those. In weaker draft classes the 1OA often may carve out a great career but is not viewed as the top or even top5 player from their draft class, if not busting.
People should temper their expectations.
Former 2020 2OA Quinton Byfield for example had a slow start but has broken out this season, maybe people can be patient and calm down?
In his draft some touted Slafkovsky as Rantanen-lite in terms of playstyle. Rantanen spent D+1 mostly in the AHL with 0 points in a 9 game cup of coffee, before in D+2 put 38pts in 72 games, finally breaking out in D+3.
Slafkovsky probably shouldn't have been rushed into the NHL last year, but that doesn't mean he won't become a good player.
His production hasn't been high, yet, but he's still 3rd in scoring this year from his draft class only 4pt behind Cooley and Mintyukov.He seems to have taken a step lately by the sounds of it, maybe he has a bigger 2nd half and has a major brrak out next year?

 

[Lshap]

He didn't select himself as a 1OA, in a weak draft no less, not sure why all the fuss. If he was a 3-5OA would there be any issue or concern?
It's not liked he was a consensus 1OA that's long hyped as the next big generational player. There are only so many of those. In weaker draft classes the 1OA often may carve out a great career but is not viewed as the top or even top5 player from their draft class, if not busting.
People should temper their expectations.
Former 2020 2OA Quinton Byfield for example had a slow start but has broken out this season, maybe people can be patient and calm down?
In his draft some touted Slafkovsky as Rantanen-lite in terms of playstyle. Rantanen spent D+1 mostly in the AHL with 0 points in a 9 game cup of coffee, before in D+2 put 38pts in 72 games, finally breaking out in D+3.
Slafkovsky probably shouldn't have been rushed into the NHL last year, but that doesn't mean he won't become a good player.
His production hasn't been high, yet, but he's still 3rd in scoring this year from his draft class only 4pt behind Cooley and Mintyukov.He seems to have taken a step lately by the sounds of it, maybe he has a bigger 2nd half and has a major brrak out next year?

Pretty much everyone agrees with you, minus a handful of people who either don't understand development or post nonsense just for the reactions. 2022 is still a big mystery box with no obvious stars and no clear 'best player'.

That said, after a slow start, Slafkovsky continues to outscore/outplay everyone else in his draft year. Here's the 2022 draft class over the past two months and over the past month.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Nor will he.

Maybe Habs GM knows what he's doing? Adams dodn't.

 

[Javaman]

Pretty much everyone agrees with you, minus a handful of people who either don't understand development or post nonsense just for the reactions. 2022 is still a big mystery box with no obvious stars and no clear 'best player'.

That said, after a slow start, Slafkovsky continues to outscore/outplay everyone else in his draft year. Here's the 2022 draft class over the past two months and over the past month.

View attachment 796367
View attachment 796368

This has got to be the most selective use of stats over a small sample size I've ever seen. Cooley and Mintyukov are both outscoring Slafkovsky this season. Arbitrarily excising the bad bits of Slaf's offensive production this season is hardly the foundation of a convincing argument.

Slafkovsky is still on pace for 30 points at (almost) the halfway point of the season, despite his recent improved procution.

That being said, if he can continue his production rate over the past 10 to 20-ish games, then he stands a fair chance of overtaking both Cooley and Mintyukov. But he still needs to, you know, actually do it. We can't just assume he will.

 

[Javaman]

If we have to wait until the end of the year, then does that mean that this thread and all your posts in it are premature?

By that standard, yes, everyone's posts in this thread are premature. Including the ones that guarantee Slafkovsky will have a longer and more productive career than Yakupov et al.

It doesn't mean posters can't speculate and hypothesize about the future of NHL prospects.

 

[Kennerback]

His production sucks and he’s an clear outlier for a 1OA. If he makes it, he’ll be the new benchmark for slow progress displacing Joe Thornton.

With that said, for the last two weeks he’s been the Habs most dominant player. He’s an elite passer and the strongest guy on the ice. He was credited with 1 assist vs the Stars this week but was directly responsible for 3 goals.

As a Habs fan, I can’t flex because the stats don’t back me up. However, I would wait and see what happens in the next few weeks before saying the goose is cooked.

 

[Javaman]

His production sucks and he’s an clear outlier for a 1OA. If he makes it, he’ll be the new benchmark for slow progress displacing Joe Thornton.

With that said, for the last two weeks he’s been the Habs most dominant player. He’s an elite passer and the strongest guy on the ice. He was credited with 1 assist vs the Stars this week but was directly responsible for 3 goals.

As a Habs fan, I can’t flex because the stats don’t back me up. However, I would wait and see what happens in the next few weeks before saying the goose is cooked.

This all sounds very reasonable to me.

 

[Javaman]

He didn't select himself as a 1OA, in a weak draft no less, not sure why all the fuss. If he was a 3-5OA would there be any issue or concern?
It's not liked he was a consensus 1OA that's long hyped as the next big generational player. There are only so many of those. In weaker draft classes the 1OA often may carve out a great career but is not viewed as the top or even top5 player from their draft class, if not busting.
People should temper their expectations.
Former 2020 2OA Quinton Byfield for example had a slow start but has broken out this season, maybe people can be patient and calm down?
In his draft some touted Slafkovsky as Rantanen-lite in terms of playstyle. Rantanen spent D+1 mostly in the AHL with 0 points in a 9 game cup of coffee, before in D+2 put 38pts in 72 games, finally breaking out in D+3.
Slafkovsky probably shouldn't have been rushed into the NHL last year, but that doesn't mean he won't become a good player.
His production hasn't been high, yet, but he's still 3rd in scoring this year from his draft class only 4pt behind Cooley and Mintyukov.He seems to have taken a step lately by the sounds of it, maybe he has a bigger 2nd half and has a major brrak out next year?

Neither Byfield nor Rantanen were drafted 1OA. This renders your comments irrelevant, IMO.

But, for what it's worth, Rantanen's D+2 season was superior to Slaf's D+2 season thus far. In fairness to Slafkovsky, he still has about half the season to catch up to Rantanen. In fairness to the conversation, Rantanen was drafted 10th overall, not first.

We should be comparing Slaf to the player who was drafted 1OA in 2015, not the player drafted 10th overall if we want to keep with the intent of the OP.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

It’s insane Nail is only 30.

I wonder how his career would have been if he didn't go straight to the NHL and spent another year in juniors or played a season in the AHL.

 

[Pazucha]

I wonder how his career would have been if he didn't go straight to the NHL and spent another year in juniors or played a season in the AHL.

He is the best habs forward most of the nights since he was moved to the first line.

I think his career is pretty good.

 

[Lshap]

This has got to be the most selective use of stats over a small sample size I've ever seen. Cooley and Mintyukov are both outscoring Slafkovsky this season. Arbitrarily excising the bad bits of Slaf's offensive production this season is hardly the foundation of a convincing argument.

Slafkovsky's entire NHL career is a small sample size, which is why your fixation on total points has been completely wrong from the beginning.

Nobody cares about Slafkovsky's first 10 games when he's been outscoring everyone in his draft class since November. It's a very positive development curve, no more, no less. You're desperately trying to turn it into a points race.

That being said, if he can continue his production rate over the past 10 to 20-ish games, then he stands a fair chance of overtaking both Cooley and Mintyukov. But he still needs to, you know, actually do it. We can't just assume he will.

The stats simply prove Slafkovsky is developing well after a slow start. Nobody is proclaiming Cooley to be a bust because his production has fallen off. Again - this season isn't a points race.

 

[Javaman]

Slafkovsky's entire NHL career is a small sample size, which is why your fixation on total points has been completely wrong from the beginning.

Nobody cares about Slafkovsky's first 10 games when he's been outscoring everyone in his draft class since November. It's a very positive development curve, no more, no less. You're desperately trying to turn it into a points race.


The stats simply prove Slafkovsky is developing well after a slow start. Nobody is proclaiming Cooley to be a bust because his production has fallen off. Again - this season isn't a points race.

Lshap: makes post that focuses on Slaf's points production over a small sample size as a positive sign

Lshap: makes post criticizing another poster for focusing on points production over a small sample size as a negative sign.

I can't take you seriously when you do this.

To repeat the point I've made over and over again: if Slafkovsky doesn't significantly improve his offensive production beyond the 30 point pace he is currently on, it is entirely fair to contemplate that he might be the worst 1OA in recent memory.

I just can't understand why you and so many others are being so irrational about this.

 

[Lshap]

Lshap: makes post that focuses on Slaf's points production over a small sample size as a positive sign

Lshap: makes post criticizing another poster for focusing on points production over a small sample size as a negative sign.

I can't take you seriously when you do this.

To repeat the point I've made over and over again: if Slafkovsky doesn't significantly improve his offensive production beyond the 30 point pace he is currently on, it is entirely fair to contemplate that he might be the worst 1OA in recent memory.

I just can't understand why you and so many others are being so irrational about this.

You must be deliberately missing the point. it's clear as day to everyone (except you) that we're discussing a young player's development curve, not some make-believe points race.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

Atleast mtl won’t have to worry about overpaying their players !