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Is Kirby Dach ready to be the #1 centre next season?

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Illinihockey said:
It’s like with debrincat, you knew he was good right away. Great players almost always flash immediately.
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Yep, that's my point.

Obviously there's no reason to give up on Kirby yet, but my expectations have been adjusted significantly.

Again, so that my point isn't completely lost here, I am not saying that late bloomers don't happen, but rather that they're the exception rather than the rule and you shouldn't count on players developing past a certain point, unless there are extenuating circumstances like injury or whatnot. (Dach falls into that category)

I mean even in Baseball stars usually announce themselves within 1-3 seasons of full time MLB play.
 
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clydesdale line said:
So KBS and Illini would've given up on both the Sedin twins after 2-3 years into their careers when they were both basically 30 point players. Am I getting this right?
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Not necessarily. But I wouldn't have counted on them being anything more than 30 pt players when building my team after year three.

I'm not saying it doesn't happen, just that those players are the exceptions rather than the rule.
 
clydesdale line said:
So KBS and Illini would've given up on both the Sedin twins after 2-3 years into their careers when they were both basically 30 point players. Am I getting this right?
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hockey was completely different before the lockout. Had the rules stayed the same I’m not sure the sedin’s flourish like they did in the immediate aftermath. That said of course there will be outliers but I don’t remember anyone on this forum talking about how Alex Nylander was going to become some dominant player, why?
 
Lots of talk about ‘develop into’

the more common theme is that every sport is littered with top 10 picks who were meh, busts or ‘never lived up to it’

not saying that’s Kirby, but he wouldn’t be the first top 3 pick in a sport that didn’t excel if that does indeed happen
 
Kaners Bald Spot said:
My question to you is this: Look at the top players in the league and which ones weren't great within a season or two of being in the NHL?
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Kirby has hardly even played 2 seasons of NHL hockey.

That's 164 games.

Kirby has played 112.

And he obviously needs AHL time which many of the top players in the league required.
 
So I know plus/minus isn’t the greatest indicator of defensive prowess.

But when I see guys like Toews and Kubalik are -11 while Dach is breaking even, he’s not getting caved in which is at least a good sign, and the advanced stats usually back that up, and he plays plenty.

Now obviously we’d all like to see more offense. But Kirby needs to play a North/south game. The only guys who are producing currently are Kane and Cat who like playing their non sense cross ice passing game. That doesn’t suit Kirby.

We need Kane gone in the offseason so we can get Cat playing a more simplified game and a coach who supports that. The way this team plays currently makes no sense, hence so many guys struggling offensively.
 
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Imagine seeing a bunch of new replies in this thread, and thinking it wasn't more of the same stupid shit you read in most threads here. No idea what I was thinking.
 
Pez68 said:
Imagine seeing a bunch of new replies in this thread, and thinking it wasn't more of the same stupid shit you read in most threads here. No idea what I was thinking.
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I'm really interested in the data. How often does patience pay off, or is it usually that athletes are what they are when they get to the highest level?

I'm surprised nobody has done a deep dive on this yet.

I don't wish to waste the time on it.
 
Kaners Bald Spot said:
I'm really interested in the data. How often does patience pay off, or is it usually that athletes are what they are when they get to the highest level?

I'm surprised nobody has done a deep dive on this yet.

I don't wish to waste the time on it.
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No, you aren't. Your cognitive dissonance is forcing you to try and find data that supports your belief that Dach and Fields are busts. That's all this is. More of the same.
 
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Pez68 said:
No, you aren't. Your cognitive dissonance is forcing you to try and find data that supports your belief that Dach and Fields are busts. That's all this is. More of the same.
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No, I want the data. My opinion doesn't override facts. If there is data out there that supports the opposite view, I'll surely listen to it.

A clean, well understood chart that shows success probabilities.

I know about the NHLe one for Dach, and it's not kind to him. But I want more than just NHLe. Something a bit deeper about historical data from 2005-2015 or something like that.

Despite what you think, I have not made up my mind that Dach and Fields are busts. But I do think they're trending in that direction, and I have adjusted my expectations accordingly.

There's no use bitching about who else the Hawks could have taken 3rd overall in 2019 so I just hope that Dach can be a 45-55 pt 2nd liner right now. Anything better is gravy. I really hope that he can do better.

There's also no use complaining about Fields. I hope that he becomes the QB that we're all looking for.

I am not rooting for either player's failure.
 
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You hope Dach becomes a 45-55pt 2nd liner?

That's like hoping you win 2 dollars from the lottery. Maybe it's more realistic than hitting it big, but f*** that pessimistic shit, I'm hoping for the jackpot.

And sure, he's had a meh year. Newsflash: the whole team has a had a meh year. And he's the youngest guy on the roster. I'd be more surprised if he was excelling this season given how the rest of the team has been playing.

Like I said earlier, I could see 2 weeks off as a good reset for him. When guys struggle, it's nice to have that break. DeBrincat struggled in the 19-20 season and, despite the many posters here wanting us to move on from him that summer, he had his best season of his career in 20-21.

What I'm trying to say is, yall need to chill the f*** out.
 
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Pez68 said:
He has 26 points in 30 games, 23 ESP. 14 goals. He's having a career year and is playing great. I'm not sure what your point is.

Oh, you're just being a smart ass again. Yeah.
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Yeah a nearly PPG player playing 18 minutes a night with a +22 would do wonders on this team right now.
 
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