is it just me or is Necas going to explode this year?

[AhosDatsyukian]

If anyone was wondering if Connor Bedard was worth all the hype, here’s your answer.

I mean, sure but also don't downplay Turbo's abilities. He was a 70-80+ point guy multiple seasons here, despite our system limiting forward's scoring upsides. Chicago, Bedard or not, does not have a system that holds forwards back like ours. And despite the pace, he's not hitting 130 points lol

 

[Svechhammer]

I mean, sure but also don't downplay Turbo's abilities. He was a 70-80+ point guy multiple seasons here, despite our system limiting forward's scoring upsides. Chicago, Bedard or not, does not have a system that holds forwards back like ours. And despite the pace, he's not hitting 130 points lol

Turbo is a great setup player, and as much as we justifiably love Aho, Bedard is simply a better player, so its not surprising that Turbo is seeing great results when his high level passes are finding the stick of an elite scorer. He's a perfect fit for that line, and he will do well there.

Doesn't change the fact that he had shown through his own play that he wasn't a good fit here anymore.

 

[Derailed75]

Turbo is a great setup player, and as much as we justifiably love Aho, Bedard is simply a better player,

WTF are you talking about?

Does Bedard have the potential and pedigree to be better than Aho absolutely. Is he simply a better player? Absolutely not he has had one 60 point season, I think we would all bet on him being a better player in the future but now, no and it's not even close

 

[Discipline Daddy]

Back to Necas.

I was of the opinion that we should trade Necas after last year. I do think we would have a better team for the next 5 years if we gave Guentzel $8.5Mx8 (assuming he would have stayed with more money, which we don't know) and traded Necas.

I have to imagine the Borg did their due diligence and did look to trade Necas, but the deals weren't there. I'm positive Necas would look better in another system, but I think we've had enough sample size to know who he is as a player. We've seen him to score 72 points here and he can do it again. That is definitely worth $6.5M. We don't have better options than him on PP1 and I think that unit will eventually have good chemistry and score a lot of points.

I don't love his game for the playoffs, in general, but we have seen him be a man possessed for a game here and there. His play last postseason left me frustrated at times, but 9 points in 11 games isn't bad, and I thought he was overall more impactful than Jake Guentzel.

I also think it's likely he walks after 2 years, but 2 years from now is an eternity by NHL standards.

 

[WreckingCrew]

I mean, sure but also don't downplay Turbo's abilities. He was a 70-80+ point guy multiple seasons here, despite our system limiting forward's scoring upsides. Chicago, Bedard or not, does not have a system that holds forwards back like ours. And despite the pace, he's not hitting 130 points lol

I mean the evidence is clear, Aho hasn't gotten a single regular-season point since Turbo left, and the team only has 1 goal...Turbo has 3x as many goals alone as our WHOLE TEAM does!

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Back to Necas.

I was of the opinion that we should trade Necas after last year. I do think we would have a better team for the next 5 years if we gave Guentzel $8.5Mx8 (assuming he would have stayed with more money, which we don't know) and traded Necas.

I have to imagine the Borg did their due diligence and did look to trade Necas, but the deals weren't there. I'm positive Necas would look better in another system, but I think we've had enough sample size to know who he is as a player. We've seen him to score 72 points here and he can do it again. That is definitely worth $6.5M. We don't have better options than him on PP1 and I think that unit will eventually have good chemistry and score a lot of points.

I don't love his game for the playoffs, in general, but we have seen him be a man possessed for a game here and there. His play last postseason left me frustrated at times, but 9 points in 11 games isn't bad, and I thought he was overall more impactful than Jake Guentzel.

I also think it's likely he walks after 2 years, but 2 years from now is an eternity by NHL standards.

To be fair, we did try to trade Necas, and apparently had a few deals lined up, but the deals we set up required Necas to sign an extension with the team we were trading him to. And Necas wasn't willing to do that.

So we essentially kicked the ball down the road until this off-season, where I'm sure we'll try again. Hell, depending on how the season goes, it may even be a deadline deal.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

To be fair, we did try to trade Necas, and apparently had a few deals lined up, but the deals we set up required Necas to sign an extension with the team we were trading him to. And Necas wasn't willing to do that.

So we essentially kicked the ball down the road until this off-season, where I'm sure we'll try again. Hell, depending on how the season goes, it may even be a deadline deal.

Yeah. I got the same sense as well though I'm just an outsider speculating. It seemed obvious to me that Guentz would be better on this year's team than Necas, plus you get an asset from trading Necas. Alas. The silver lining is not re-signing Guentzel means you don't get saddled with dead cap for the last few years. And silver lining is that in the playoffs all in all Necas was debatably a better player than Guentzel was and had much worse linemates.

I'd be fine moving on from Necas if we do get good value, but that seems less and less likely. Better to hope he finds good chemistry and boosts our powerplay and we live with the warts in his game.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Turbo is a great setup player, and as much as we justifiably love Aho, Bedard is simply a better player, so its not surprising that Turbo is seeing great results when his high level passes are finding the stick of an elite scorer.

Honestly, if we go back and watch the actual replays of his points so far, it’s not even that complicated. Two were off a world-class play by Bedard, one was a fluke bounce off an Oiler, and one he passed the puck away and had nothing to do with the scoring play.

He did have a nice slap shot goal, but this is more Bedard and early season puck luck than anything he’s directly contributing.

 

[The Faulker 27]

Honestly, there's no way to quantify a difference in his production without more games under his belt. Turbo was also a streaky player. He'd have flashes of brilliance then nothing for multiple games in a row. How many times did we say he should be shooting the puck more than passing. He has an elite shot when he uses it. OR maybe that was Tripp always saying that. Either way.

 

[MinJaBen]

Honestly, if we go back and watch the actual replays of his points so far, it’s not even that complicated. Two were off a world-class play by Bedard, one was a fluke bounce off an Oiler, and one he passed the puck away and had nothing to do with the scoring play.

He did have a nice slap shot goal, but this is more Bedard and early season puck luck than anything he’s directly contributing.

I mean, who is this team to turn their noses up at some puck luck?

 

[chaz4hockey]

Are we going to act like TT didn't have similar success here? The problem wasn't that he couldn't put up points while attached to the best player on the respective team. It was that, if he wasn't attached to Aho, his production disappeared.

So if we wanted to have a successful line like the Jarvis - Aho - Guentzel one, that would put TT on our 2nd line, where he was essentially a non-factor.

Now maybe that doesn't happen in Chicago, but I'd wait until he doesn't have Bedard on his wing before complaining about his stifled production here

I'd add, he had only 2 out of 6 successful playoffs (19 & 22), lacked needed size/physicality, is now 30 and has been suggested wasn't a big workout kind of guy (which is key for RBA and an area that is even more important as you age).

We do miss his on-ice sophistication, PK work and the fact that was a jack of all trades line of guy (hopefully his productivity is picked up by JR).

I'd also suggest that often a player gets a new impetus to perform once they are a placed in a new situation and then they continue succesfully or over time fall back into the same old/less successful habits.

I wish him and most of our recent guys who have travelled away; ie Noesen, Pesce (damn autocorrect keeps on changing his name), Nino and even Guentzel (not Dougie though.....something about how he left bothered me)

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Freed from the shackles..it's amazing what can happen. TT, Nino, Trocheck...

As for Nino, he scored at a rate of 24G and 48 points per 82 games during his time in Carolina. He's scored at a rate of 21G and 40 points per 82 games since leaving.

As for Trocheck, he scored at a rate of 24G, 60P per 82 games during his two full seasons in Carolina. He's scored at a rate of 23G, 71P per 82 games in NY.

Looking under the covers a bit to understand why his production went up, it is simply because:
1) he's getting top line TOI 5v5 in NY vs. 2nd line TOI in Carolina
2) he's getting more PP time because the Rangers have gotten more PP time than what the Canes were getting while he was here.

His scoring rates (Goals and point / 60) aren't really any different than when he was under the "shackles" in Carolina. It's simply just more ice time (and playing with Fox, Kreider and Panarin doesn't hurt).

So if by freeing him from the shackles, means giving him top line TOI and Aho 2nd line TOI, then sure. Otherwise, he's scoring at similar rates in both places.

Details are below for those that care to read them:

In his time in NY, Trocheck has scored at a rate of .48 G/60 and 1.92 P/60 5v5, while playing with Panarin, Laf, and Kreider as his primary linemates.
In his time in Carolina, Trocheck has scored at a rate of .71 G/60 and 1.84 P/60 5v5 with Necas, Svech and Nino being his top line mates.
So 5v5 in NY, he scores goals at a worse rate and scores points at a slightly higher rate 5v5 while playing with one of the best players in the NHL and a couple of guys that score 40-50 goals.

On the PP, in his time in NY, he's scored at a rate of 2.24 G/60 and 4.7 P/60 while playing with Panarin, Zib, Kreider and Adam Fox (one of the best PP QBs in the NHL).
On the PP, in his time in Carolina, he's scored at a rate of 2.20 G/60 and 5.02 P/60 while playing with Aho, Svech, TT and DeAngelo.

So his PP rate of production went down in NY even though he played with better players.

The biggest reason why his production is higher is simply more TOI.
1) In his last season in Carolina, the Canes got 365 min of PP time. In his first two seasons in NY, the Rangers got 400 min. of PP time so he's getting more PP TOI
2) He's on the top line in NY so he's getting top line ES TOI vs. 2nd line ES TOI in CAR.

 

[WreckingCrew]

As for Nino, he scored at a rate of 24G and 48 points per 82 games during his time in Carolina. He's scored at a rate of 21G and 40 points per 82 games since leaving.

As for Trocheck, he scored at a rate of 24G, 60P per 82 games during his two full seasons in Carolina. He's scored at a rate of 23G, 71P per 82 games in NY.

Looking under the covers a bit to understand why his production went up, it is simply because:
1) he's getting top line TOI 5v5 in NY vs. 2nd line TOI in Carolina
2) he's getting more PP time because the Rangers have gotten more PP time than what the Canes were getting while he was here.

His scoring rates (Goals and point / 60) aren't really any different than when he was under the "shackles" in Carolina. It's simply just more ice time (and playing with Fox, Kreider and Panarin doesn't hurt).

So if by freeing him from the shackles, means giving him top line TOI and Aho 2nd line TOI, then sure. Otherwise, he's scoring at similar rates in both places.

Details are below for those that care to read them:

In his time in NY, Trocheck has scored at a rate of .48 G/60 and 1.92 P/60 5v5, while playing with Panarin, Laf, and Kreider as his primary linemates.
In his time in Carolina, Trocheck has scored at a rate of .71 G/60 and 1.84 P/60 5v5 with Necas, Svech and Nino being his top line mates.
So 5v5 in NY, he scores goals at a worse rate and scores points at a slightly higher rate 5v5 while playing with one of the best players in the NHL and a couple of guys that score 40-50 goals.

On the PP, in his time in NY, he's scored at a rate of 2.24 G/60 and 4.7 P/60 while playing with Panarin, Zib, Kreider and Adam Fox (one of the best PP QBs in the NHL).
On the PP, in his time in Carolina, he's scored at a rate of 2.20 G/60 and 5.02 P/60 while playing with Aho, Svech, TT and DeAngelo.

So his PP rate of production went down in NY even though he played with better players.

The biggest reason why his production is higher is simply more TOI.
1) In his last season in Carolina, the Canes got 365 min of PP time. In his first two seasons in NY, the Rangers got 400 min. of PP time so he's getting more PP TOI
2) He's on the top line in NY so he's getting top line ES TOI vs. 2nd line ES TOI in CAR.

For Tro it's not just more TOI and PP time in NYR...it's also 20 less PIM because of the "Rangers Factor" (or just normal penalty calling instead of the extra CAR-ticky-tacky factor). Tro was actually very much the kind of 2C that worked great in our system and is exactly the kind of player that can thrive with our setup, we just weren't willing to commit the term to him he wanted. He's the exact same thing with NYR, but he definitely gets to feed a bit off better linemates, I don't think they "unlocked" better offense out of him. There are definitely some players who I think could do better in other systems that might be somewhat "handcuffed" by our style, but Tro isn't one of them as his strengths played right into that style (same with Nino and our 3rd line guys)

 

[bleedgreen]

I mean, sure but also don't downplay Turbo's abilities. He was a 70-80+ point guy multiple seasons here, despite our system limiting forward's scoring upsides. Chicago, Bedard or not, does not have a system that holds forwards back like ours. And despite the pace, he's not hitting 130 points lol

Aho and TT were never really held back by the system. Rod always allowed them to essentially do what they want as long as they didn’t make bad choices with turning over the puck. How many goals did you see those two score after dumping/chasing/grinding and generally physically out working the opponent? Our system is what you saw from the Staal line the other night, and Aho/TT never played it. They did give and go’s and used their skill.

TT is a great complementary player when he has someone to feed off of. He came to us for cheap during a time when we were desperate for skill, and for the first few years of Rod we still needed it despite him not being a great stylistic fit for the team. Once we had the next generation coming along to replace him it didn’t make sense to pay him to stay when we needed the money elsewhere. He was no longer essential to Aho’s success, he never really played the game Rod wants of the team and never seemed to have a home on other lines.

The problem isn’t letting guys go when it’s time, it’s replacing the guys we let go. That’s been a theme under the Borg imo. We try to find smart replacements under TD’s “there’s always someone who’s willing to do the job for less money” concept and that’s how you get Roslovic instead of TT.