Is Bedard more McDavid or Drai/Matthews/Mackinnon level talent?

[daver]

You want Bedard to be the 4th.

I don't know how you can claim that so matter-of-factly.

He could be the fourth, but not everyone agrees. Unless you can explain how it's an open and shut case for him compared to the others, I'm not sure how you've arrived at that position.

He has the statistical argument to be the 2nd best (or even the best if you put a lot of emphasis on goal scoring) offensive prospect in the last 35 years. We don't go back and adjust where someone was rated as a prospect based on how they do as a pro.

You are simply being a contrarian at this point or using the "we don't know yet" as your counter argument.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

He has the statistical argument to be the 2nd best (or even the best if you put a lot of emphasis on goal scoring) offensive prospect in the last 35 years. We don't go back and adjust where someone was rated as a prospect based on how they do as a pro.

You are simply being a contrarian at this point or using the "we don't know yet" as your counter argument.

I’ve asked you to articulate what is the exact statistical measurement we are supposed to use and how Bedard demonstrably performs the best since McDavid at it and here you are still trying to tell me that I should believe you instead of showing me why I should. I’d prefer to discuss specifics, so can you please answer my question? Otherwise, I’m not sure what else there is to discuss. Merely telling someone they’re wrong isn’t likely to convince them.

 

[daver]

I’ve asked you to articulate what is the exact statistical measurement we are supposed to use and how Bedard demonstrably performs the best since McDavid at it and here you are still trying to tell me that I should believe you instead of showing me why I should. I’d prefer to discuss specifics, so can you please answer my question? Otherwise, I’m not sure what else there is to discuss. Merely telling someone they’re wrong isn’t likely to convince them.

Point/PPG dominance vs. the next Top 10/20 players in their respective leagues. Playoff and WJC showings can compliment these numbers. Bedard was a bit more dominant at age 15, 16 and 17 vs. McDavid.

A player like Kane, a good example of a smallish, highly skilled player excelling in the NHL, wasn't as dominant in the OHL while being a bit older. Kane reached a level in the NHL that was befitting his prospect rating/CHL production; Bedard was better than Kane in the CHL while bit a younger and a bit bigger. He is as close to Crosby physically as he is to Kane.

People want to argue his skillset may not translate as well in the NHL, that's fine and very subjective. What can't be denied is the reasonable comparison being made with the very best offensive prospects (Crosby/McDavid) the last 35 years based on his production.

His shot and goalscoring are superior to those two and I like his hockey IQ which, IMO, will elevate his playmaking as he may not score at the same prolific rate as he did in the W. I see him drawing in defenders with the threat of him sniping and dishing off.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Point/PPG dominance vs. the next Top 10/20 players in their respective leagues. Playoff and WJC showings can compliment these numbers. Bedard was a bit more dominant at age 15, 16 and 17 vs. McDavid.

A player like Kane, a good example of a smallish, highly skilled player excelling in the NHL, wasn't as dominant in the OHL while being a bit older. Kane reached a level in the NHL that was befitting his prospect rating; Bedard was better than Kane in the CHL while bit a younger and a bit bigger. He is as close to Crosby physically as he is to Kane.

People want to argue his skillset may not translate as well in the NHL, that's fine and very subjective. What can't be denied is the reasonable comparison being made the very best prospects in the last 35 years based on his production.

But you didn’t demonstrate how he is above those players. You are just pontificating that he is.

Doesn’t seem like you have the appetite to properly make the argument you believe. Fair enough. Doesn’t seem like we have anything left to discuss.

 

[Fatass]

Depends on how we (and why we) rank these players. I place huge value on the best players leading their clubs to Cups. So if Bedard Leads the Hawks to a Cup he ranks up with Mackinnon. If not, then he falls into the category of great players to not lead their clubs to a Cup.

 

[daver]

But you didn’t demonstrate how he is above those players. You are just pontificating that he is.

As you did not demonstrate that he isn't. You are just pontificating that he is (frankly speaking, to fit your narrative).

Go read through the Prospect thread as this was discussed many times.

C Connor Bedard (2023, 1st, CHI) Part 6

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/535584/connor-bedard Alright - time for a new Bedard thread, a lot has happened since the last thread was made. Bedard had the most dominant offensive statline ever posted by a U18 player in WJC history with 23 points in only 7 games on route to a gold...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[Calderon]

I'd say Bedard is comfortably in the Sidney Crosby - Petr Prucha territory, only time will tell if he'll reach the heights of those greats.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

As you did not demonstrate that he isn't. You are just pontificating that he is (frankly speaking, to fit your narrative).

Go read through the Prospect thread as this was discussed many times.

C Connor Bedard (2023, 1st, CHI) Part 6

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/535584/connor-bedard Alright - time for a new Bedard thread, a lot has happened since the last thread was made. Bedard had the most dominant offensive statline ever posted by a U18 player in WJC history with 23 points in only 7 games on route to a gold...

forums.hfboards.com

Uh, you were the one that quoted my post and disagreed with my stated opinion.

The burden is on you.

And believe me, I don’t need to read anything else. I’ve been down this road with many people in that thread. Good arguments are never put forward. The argument you believe (yet seemingly won’t take the time to make) isn’t a strong one. It’s entirely subjective and ignores the similar statistical production of recent players also discussed as potentially being generational. But I get it’s not fun to say he’s not generational. Much more fun when people can say there’s a generational player every two years.

So I’ll bow of our discussion there. I hope you’re right. Would be great for hockey, but I don’t see it happening.

 

[Mathieukferland]

This has been rehashed for months on the prospect thread (with three notable dissenting voices, but I would say the general consensus is he’s near or at the McDavid/Crosby level), but my personal opinion is that when your offensive game (shooting, vision, hands, elusiveness) is as well rounded as I’ve seen in a prospect since Crosby, you enter generational prospect status. How well that translates to the NHL I’m not sure, but certainly the best prospect since McDavid and has the potential to become one of the greatest goal scorers ever if he stays healthy, his shooting mechanics are transformative and revolutionary

 

[Fatass]

Uh, you were the one that quoted my post and disagreed with my stated opinion.

The burden is on you.

And believe me, I don’t need to read anything else. I’ve been down this road with many people in that thread. Good arguments are never put forward. The argument you believe (yet seemingly won’t take the time to make) isn’t a strong one. It’s entirely subjective and ignores the similar statistical production of recent players also discussed as potentially being generational. But I get it’s not fun to say he’s not generational. Much more fun when people can say there’s a generational player every two years.

So I’ll bow of our discussion there. I hope you’re right. Would be great for hockey, but I don’t see it happening.

Are you of the opinion a player needs to lead his team to a Cup before he’s considered a true great? Or can a player put up lots of points (like Dionne, who I see a lot of Bedard in) and still be in that upper tier of greatness?
We can March out numbers, and suggest that creates a valid argument, but really this is about opinion and totally subjective.
Bedard was a fabulous junior. He led Canada to a WJC. Will he lead the Hawks to a Cup? That’s what will determine his level of greatness, imo.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Point/PPG dominance vs. the next Top 10/20 players in their respective leagues. Playoff and WJC showings can compliment these numbers. Bedard was a bit more dominant at age 15, 16 and 17 vs. McDavid.

A player like Kane, a good example of a smallish, highly skilled player excelling in the NHL, wasn't as dominant in the OHL while being a bit older. Kane reached a level in the NHL that was befitting his prospect rating/CHL production; Bedard was better than Kane in the CHL while bit a younger and a bit bigger. He is as close to Crosby physically as he is to Kane.

People want to argue his skillset may not translate as well in the NHL, that's fine and very subjective. What can't be denied is the reasonable comparison being made with the very best offensive prospects (Crosby/McDavid) the last 35 years based on his production.

His shot and goalscoring are superior to those two and I like his hockey IQ which, IMO, will elevate his playmaking as he may not score at the same prolific rate as he did in the W. I see him drawing in defenders with the threat of him sniping and dishing off.

So by this measure, you agree that Bedard is probably a Lafontaine level prospect?

 

[daver]

Are you of the opinion a player needs to lead his team to a Cup before he’s considered a true great? Or can a player put up lots of points (like Dionne, who I see a lot of Bedard in) and still be in that upper tier of greatness?
We can March out numbers, and suggest that creates a valid argument, but really this is about opinion and totally subjective.
Bedard was a fabulous junior. He led Canada to a WJC. Will he lead the Hawks to a Cup? That’s what will determine his level of greatness, imo.

How does one lead their team to the Cup? You mention that MacKinnon did it but it was Makar that won the Smythe. Like McDavid, Mac had built a rep for the playoff prior to winning but was reasonably downgraded for not doing it over four rounds/late in individual series. He was very good in their Cup win but not as outworldly as he had been in other years.

 

[daver]

Uh, you were the one that quoted my post and disagreed with my stated opinion.

The burden is on you.

And believe me, I don’t need to read anything else. I’ve been down this road with many people in that thread. Good arguments are never put forward. The argument you believe (yet seemingly won’t take the time to make) isn’t a strong one. It’s entirely subjective and ignores the similar statistical production of recent players also discussed as potentially being generational. But I get it’s not fun to say he’s not generational. Much more fun when people can say there’s a generational player every two years.

So I’ll bow of our discussion there. I hope you’re right. Would be great for hockey, but I don’t see it happening.

Not even close to McDavid. He’s being overhyped because it doesn’t generate buzz to be rational. It generates buzz to overhype. Every year they do this to a player or two that is going to carry the narrative for a draft. He’s in the same tier as Matthews and a few others. He’s very good, but he’s not even a true 5’10, his skating is good not amazing for that height and his defense needs some improvement.

No, the burden is on you to back your opinion that he is on the "same tier as Matthews" when statistically he is on Crosby/McDavid's tier as a prospect.

You then proceed to throw the predictable shit against the wall to justify your opinion, stuff that has been debunked many times over by now, to see what sticks to back up your opinion.

 

[SML2]

I was gonna vote "how about you let the kid play a freaking game before you try to evaluate his entire career", but I didn't see it as a choice.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

No, the burden is on you to back your opinion that he is on the "same tier as Matthews" when statistically he is on Crosby/McDavid's tier as a prospect.

You then proceed to throw the predictable shit against the wall to justify your opinion, stuff that has been debunked many times over by now, to see what sticks to back up your opinion.

And Lafontaine, right?

 

[GettingYourMoms]

I would say Lafreniere level, future superstar.

 

[Toby91ca]

For what it’s worth which might not be much: I’ve seen both Gretzky and Lemieux from the beginning of their careers….Gretzky was never drafted but I’m sure there was tons of hype around him anyway. For Lemieux I would have been too young at the time to pay attention to draft talk, etc….so for me, I’ve never seen any player get the kind of hype Bedard has gotten besides Crosby and Lindros. That may be do to the difference over the years in terms of social media etc though, but doesn’t matter either as hype doesn’t = anything but hype, question now is whether he lives up to it or not.

People mention his shot and from my perspective, it’s not just the shot itself, but he seems to get it off out of nowhere all the time and so quickly….so with that, I see that being more of a threat on 5v5 vs just the PP where you have more time and space

 

[J bo Jeans]

NHL hasnt seen a release and shot like Bedard. Closest is Matthews and Bedards release is quicker and more deceptive.

Its amazing how where ever he is in the offensive zone he can rifle a shot and score.

 

[Machinehead]

Because I refuse to eat crow on HF

And the T-shirts are too tight too, Billy!

 

[Happyhary9]

But you didn’t demonstrate how he is above those players. You are just pontificating that he is.

Doesn’t seem like you have the appetite to properly make the argument you believe. Fair enough. Doesn’t seem like we have anything left to discuss.

Dude you did this in another thread. When people links actual NHL scouts saying they view him as generational, your response was basically well I don't know all these guys, yet you use hf polls.

As far as statically dominanting, you were show how much he dominanted compared to his peers. Which was massively huge. And that is how you compare different players from different eras/leagues. Then you bring up Laf and his 2 chl player of year awards. Yet he didn't dominant his peers. Then it was well the WHL is watered down. Then people talk about him dominanting WJC. But you always have a excuse, then it is well that is during the war and act like since Russia wasn't there it don't count. When asked well why didn't all the other players also score at a much higher rate in the WJC, since you know according to you it is so watered down, you have no answer.

The facts are a majority of actual NHL scouts (not hf posters) place him in the generational category with Crosby and McDavid. And no I will not go find them again for you, do your own research. And yes like many people have shown you with stats, he had maybe the most dominant draft year this century.

You can sit here and say well imo I don't think he will be this or that in the NHL, cause that is opinion. But to sit around and say players like Laf dominanted like him is false. And always using HF posters (fanatics not actual scouts) as you proof that there is always prospects labeled generational every year is just dumb. Go look at actual scouts comments on all these guys. A guy like Laf doesn't enter the conversation when they talk about generational prospects.

 

[Toby91ca]

I think we need to stop bringing up Lafreniere....I think people hyped him up mostly because of the WJC, but he still had nowhere near the hype of Bedard. Also, his two CHL player of the year awards are not in the same category as Crosby for example....Lafreniere's last year in the Q was as an 18 year old due to Oct birthday...Crosby won it as a 16 and 17 year old and Bedard was 17 as well. Also, Lafreniere, as a year older, did not dominate the competition like Crosby and Bedard.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think we need to stop bringing up Lafreniere....I think people hyped him up mostly because of the WJC, but he still had nowhere near the hype of Bedard. Also, his two CHL player of the year awards are not in the same category as Crosby for example....Lafreniere's last year in the Q was as an 18 year old due to Oct birthday...Crosby won it as a 16 and 17 year old and Bedard was 17 as well. Also, Lafreniere, as a year older, did not dominate the competition like Crosby and Bedard.

Yeah Lafreniere was never a Bedard level prospect. Before the draft, I thought he'd be a 70-80 point winger with some power in his game, kind of like a Landeskog with less grit and more skill. But that's like Bedard's floor.

I have him at right near the top of the class directly behind the generational talents. The more I think about it the more I really like the Lafontaine comparison. Elite junior players who are a bit smaller, but still become HoFers. Hopefully Bedard has better luck with injuries.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

McDavid level prospect. 99.9% he doesn't match/surpass McDavid's NHL career though. That's not questioning his talent, it's just McDavid is going to end up a top 5 player ever and the chances of someone matching that are basically zero.

 

[Happyhary9]

Yeah Lafreniere was never a Bedard level prospect. Before the draft, I thought he'd be a 70-80 point winger with some power in his game, kind of like a Landeskog with less grit and more skill. But that's like Bedard's floor.

I have him at right near the top of the class directly behind the generational talents. The more I think about it the more I really like the Lafontaine comparison. Elite junior players who are a bit smaller, but still become HoFers. Hopefully Bedard has better luck with injuries.

Lafreniere is definitely not a Bedard level prospect.

I see some of the LaFontaine comp. He was a ridiculous talent that could never stay healthy. His game would have also translated better to the modern style today. He would put up 130 today if he was healthy. He is still the highest scoring American in ppg ever at 1.17 per. It really took him a bit to get going in the NHL and all those injuries. He even had a 9 year stretch of over ppg, just never healthy.

As far as the poll. I read it as what level of a prospect he is. To me he is a generational prospect based of his play and NHL scouts. So as a prospect he us closer to McDavid then those other guys. Now that doesn't mean he will absolutely become a generational type player in the NHL. Lindross was absolutely a generational prospect, but to me he didn't become a generational player at the NHL level. Still a great player. Basically of the majority or scouts and his 17 year old production Bedard falls in the generational prospect, we will have to wait and see if he can become that at the NHL level.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

This has been rehashed for months on the prospect thread (with three notable dissenting voices, but I would say the general consensus is he’s near or at the McDavid/Crosby level), but my personal opinion is that when your offensive game (shooting, vision, hands, elusiveness) is as well rounded as I’ve seen in a prospect since Crosby, you enter generational prospect status. How well that translates to the NHL I’m not sure, but certainly the best prospect since McDavid and has the potential to become one of the greatest goal scorers ever if he stays healthy, his shooting mechanics are transformative and revolutionary

Do you not see the poll results?