Is Bedard more McDavid or Drai/Matthews/Mackinnon level talent?

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Dude you did this in another thread. When people links actual NHL scouts saying they view him as generational, your response was basically well I don't know all these guys, yet you use hf polls.

As far as statically dominanting, you were show how much he dominanted compared to his peers. Which was massively huge. And that is how you compare different players from different eras/leagues. Then you bring up Laf and his 2 chl player of year awards. Yet he didn't dominant his peers. Then it was well the WHL is watered down. Then people talk about him dominanting WJC. But you always have a excuse, then it is well that is during the war and act like since Russia wasn't there it don't count. When asked well why didn't all the other players also score at a much higher rate in the WJC, since you know according to you it is so watered down, you have no answer.

The facts are a majority of actual NHL scouts (not hf posters) place him in the generational category with Crosby and McDavid. And no I will not go find them again for you, do your own research. And yes like many people have shown you with stats, he had maybe the most dominant draft year this century.

You can sit here and say well imo I don't think he will be this or that in the NHL, cause that is opinion. But to sit around and say players like Laf dominanted like him is false. And always using HF posters (fanatics not actual scouts) as you proof that there is always prospects labeled generational every year is just dumb. Go look at actual scouts comments on all these guys. A guy like Laf doesn't enter the conversation when they talk about generational prospects.

Yeah, I did do this. I have pretty much shown how the proponents are just excited fans that can't come up with a coherent argument for why he is. It's based on emotion and the feeling they get watching Bedard. I'm not saying they don't have that right, but let's be real that's all their argument comes down to. When I am begging someone to make an argument and trying to coax it out of them for the sake of debate and they succumb to refusing to make the argument, it kind of does hurt the Bedard proponents side of things.

And you just wrote 3 paragraphs not proving what makes him statistically superior to others who've come before him that were discussed as generational yet weren't. This is what I've been told is undeniable, yet none of you want to prove it. So I'm not sure why I should take these arguments at face value anymore when no one can even make it. Your pontificating is no better than others pontificating. Either make the argument or don't claim it's anything other than your own whim.

 

[Mathieukferland]

Do you not see the poll results?

I was referring to the consensus in the prospect thread not this particular poll

 

[daver]

I was referring to the consensus in the prospect thread not this particular poll

This poll is subjective. That Bedard statistically dominated the W like no other player has dominated any of the CHL leagues in the last 35 years except for Crosby is really not debatable.

 

[Happyhary9]

Do you not see the poll results?

It is a HF poll, haha. Go back to pre lottery and every fan of a team that had a chance at the #1 pick would vote he is generational. Now half those guys say well ya this and that because there is now zero chance he is on their team. There is a reason the word fan comes from fanatics. HF polls/opinions change faster then the weather in the Midwest of America.

Go look at the consensus/majority of opinions of actual NHL scouts. It is absolutely mind boggling that you try to use HF as some legitimate source, a vast majority of polls on HF are just the latest hot take on something. Kinda like you hot take of Lafreniere being the same level of prospect as Bedard (which no NHL scouts claim) and you claim that he dominanted on Bedard's level (which the statical comparison to peers is not close).

 

[blundluntman]

He has a generational shot, amazing hands, Crosby/McDavid level hockey IQ, Great playmaking/vision and is extremely shifty. That gives him more tools than Matthews. He is better than Draisaitl at just about everything but puck protection as I can tell. He's not as fast/explosive as Mackinnon but he's a better shooter, has higher hockey IQ and probably is equally good as a playmaker. I'd say he's more talented than Mackinnon/Matthews/Draisaitl. He's closer to McDavid than the latter as far as I'm concerned. People are placing too much emphasis on speed. Crosby doesn't have McDavid's speed either but he was an equally talented player before injuries.

Like I said earlier, he dominated the CHL, World Juniors and playoffs at a level the other 3 couldn't.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I was referring to the consensus in the prospect thread not this particular poll

But it's tough to know what the consensus is there. That's only based on the people that have the appetite to engage in those discussions. It doesn't necessarily entail everyone that has an opinion on the question. We know what the consensus is here because the results make that obvious.

 

[TLEH]

Yeah, I did do this. I have pretty much shown how the proponents are just excited fans that can't come up with a coherent argument for why he is. It's based on emotion and the feeling they get watching Bedard. I'm not saying they don't have that right, but let's be real that's all their argument comes down to. When I am begging someone to make an argument and trying to coax it out of them for the sake of debate and they succumb to refusing to make the argument, it kind of does hurt the Bedard proponents side of things.

And you just wrote 3 paragraphs not proving what makes him statistically superior to others who've come before him that were discussed as generational yet weren't. This is what I've been told is undeniable, yet none of you want to prove it. So I'm not sure why I should take these arguments at face value anymore when no one can even make it. Your pontificating is no better than others pontificating. Either make the argument or don't claim it's anything other than your own whim.

What are you even talking about? You compared him as a prospect to Laf when the level Bedard was at vs his peers is pretty far beyond. Had 13 more points in 2 more WJC games but because Russia wasn't there its "washed"? Also doesn't take into account their 9 month age difference. Talk about emotions and feelings when you spout that Michkov is going to terrorize and be the best player after McDavid gets older, but Bedard won't due to his size and skating. As if Michkov has size, or skating advantage.

The question is, is he a McDavid level talent, or is he a Drai, Matthews, MacK level talent? Up to D0. He is a McDavid level talent. That part, to me, is very clear when you take his production vs peers into account.

McDavid has exceeded expectations at this point (which is crazy). Its yet to be determined if Bedard will be McDavid level by 27. He doesn't have the same physical tools. Who knows. But if anyone in here is making a "emotion and feeling" argument, its you, because the numbers suggest otherwise.

 

[Happyhary9]

Yeah, I did do this. I have pretty much shown how the proponents are just excited fans that can't come up with a coherent argument for why he is. It's based on emotion and the feeling they get watching Bedard. I'm not saying they don't have that right, but let's be real that's all their argument comes down to. When I am begging someone to make an argument and trying to coax it out of them for the sake of debate and they succumb to refusing to make the argument, it kind of does hurt the Bedard proponents side of things.

And you just wrote 3 paragraphs not proving what makes him statistically superior to others who've come before him that were discussed as generational yet weren't. This is what I've been told is undeniable, yet none of you want to prove it. So I'm not sure why I should take these arguments at face value anymore when no one can even make it. Your pontificating is no better than others pontificating. Either make the argument or don't claim it's anything other than your own whim.

Okay I will do the math for you with your boy Lafreniere, who zero scouts labeled generational going into the draft.

What people refer to as dominant stats, is how much above your peers. Bedard scored at 2.51 ppg, while the next 3 highest scorers were 1.72 ppg. Laf was at 2.15 ppg while the next 3 were 1.89 ppg. Bedard scored at a rate of .79 ppg over his peers, while Laf was .26 over his peers. Bedard score at a rate 3x Laf vs his peers, that is a huge difference. Note if you want to go down farther like top 10 it is basically, you do it if you want.

Now for the real kicker. Goals which carry a little more weight then assists. Bedard 1.25 gpg, next 3 at .73 gpg, for difference of .52 gpg. Laf .67 gpg, top 3 at .76 gpg, for a difference of -.09. As you can see they are not even in the same universe as each other in goals scoring vs their peers.

You can do the same for the WJC as will get the same type results. Laf was no where close to statically dominant at Bedard in draft year (all while almost a year older). Only guy in Bedards level of dominant stats over peers in their draft years this decade is Crosby/McDavid.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Okay I will do the math for you with your boy Lafreniere, who zero scouts labeled generational going into the draft.

What people refer to as dominant stats, is how much above your peers. Bedard scored at 2.51 ppg, while the next 3 highest scorers were 1.72 ppg. Laf was at 2.15 ppg while the next 3 were 1.89 ppg. Bedard scored at a rate of .79 ppg over his peers, while Laf was .26 over his peers. Bedard score at a rate 3x Laf vs his peers, that is a huge difference. Note if you want to go down farther like top 10 it is basically, you do it if you want.

Now for the real kicker. Goals which carry a little more weight then assists. Bedard 1.25 gpg, next 3 at .73 gpg, for difference of .52 gpg. Laf .67 gpg, top 3 at .76 gpg, for a difference of -.09. As you can see they are not even in the same universe as each other in goals scoring vs their peers.

You can do the same for the WJC as will get the same type results. Laf was no where close to statically dominant at Bedard in draft year (all while almost a year older). Only guy in Bedards level of dominant stats over peers in their draft years this decade is Crosby/McDavid.

To be clear, this is not what is even being discussed.

Please show how it’s undeniable that Bedard is statistically superior to every player that has been discussed with this generational label pre-draft since McDavid. This is the claim. This includes Michkov, Wright, Lafreniere, Hughes, Dahlin, Svechnikov, Patrick, Matthews, Laine and I guess you can throw in Eichel (same draft as McDavid, but a pick later).

This is the claim. Don’t deflect this about one player. The claim was he’s the best. It’s not a contest how he compares statistically to one player.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

What are you even talking about? You compared him as a prospect to Laf when the level Bedard was at vs his peers is pretty far beyond. Had 13 more points in 2 more WJC games but because Russia wasn't there its "washed"? Also doesn't take into account their 9 month age difference. Talk about emotions and feelings when you spout that Michkov is going to terrorize and be the best player after McDavid gets older, but Bedard won't due to his size and skating. As if Michkov has size, or skating advantage.

The question is, is he a McDavid level talent, or is he a Drai, Matthews, MacK level talent? Up to D0. He is a McDavid level talent. That part, to me, is very clear when you take his production vs peers into account.

McDavid has exceeded expectations at this point (which is crazy). Its yet to be determined if Bedard will be McDavid level by 27. He doesn't have the same physical tools. Who knows. But if anyone in here is making a "emotion and feeling" argument, its you, because the numbers suggest otherwise.

Deflecting.

The Bedard proponents have said it’s undeniable Bedard is statistically superior to every player that has been discussed with this generational label pre-draft since McDavid. This is the claim. Either you can show it or not.

It doesn’t matter how he compares to one player. Of course, you want to lower the burden and compare him to one player. That’s deflecting off the initial claim, which is apparently the reason people are saying is the basis for why they are voting for Bedard being on the same level as McDavid. He’s supposedly so statistically superior to everyone since McDavid. If that’s obvious, let’s see it.

 

[Happyhary9]

To be clear, this is not what is even being discussed.

Please show how it’s undeniable that Bedard is statistically superior to every player that has been discussed with this generational label pre-draft since McDavid. This is the claim. This includes Michkov, Wright, Lafreniere, Hughes, Dahlin, Svechnikov, Patrick, Matthews, Laine and I guess you can throw in Eichel (same draft as McDavid, but a pick later).

This is the claim. Don’t deflect this about one player. The claim was he’s the best. It’s not a contest how he compares statistically to one player.

WTF man. Goal posts moving again. You kept bringing up Laf left and right and his CHL player of the year awards. Completely proven wrong and then say prove all these guys. Out of all those guys listed only Dahlin was basically the only one scouts(not HF fan boys)viewed as a possible generational type and that is impossible to compare D vs C. Again go find multiple NHL scouts that label any of those as generational or in the same tier as McDavid/Crosby. I listed listed multiple NHL scouts (with links) that say that about Bedard. Your response I don't even know all those guys. Yet you constantly use HF for your claim that every year people are labeled as generational. So dumb, NHL scout I don't know him so he doesn't count, a random user on HF counts.

It us just comical at this point how hard you are trying to discredit how amazing of a 17 year old season Bedard just had, as in one for the ages. You sound like you just hate Bedard and refuse to give any credit. I am fine if you want to say I just don’t feel he is going to be great because of a physical/skill type thing, but the constant down playing of the type of season he had as a 17 year old is just ignorant. There is tons of scouts that say he may have had the most dominant 17 year old season they have ever seen, none of those scouts say that about all those other guys.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

WTF man. Goal posts moving again. You kept bringing up Laf left and right and his CHL player of the year awards. Completely proven wrong and then say prove all these guys. Out of all those guys listed only Dahlin was basically the only one scouts(not HF fan boys)viewed as a possible generational type and that is impossible to compare D vs C. Again go find multiple NHL scouts that label any of those as generational or in the same tier as McDavid/Crosby. I listed listed multiple NHL scouts (with links) that say that about Bedard. Your response I don't even know all those guys. Yet you constantly use HF for your claim that every year people are labeled as generational. So dumb, NHL scout I don't know him so he doesn't count, a random user on HF counts.

It us just comical at this point how hard you are trying to discredit how amazing of a 17 year old season Bedard just had, as in one for the ages. You sound like you just hate Bedard and refuse to give any credit. I am fine if you want to say I just don’t feel he is going to be great because of a physical/skill type thing, but the constant down playing of the type of season he had as a 17 year old is just ignorant. There is tons of scouts that say he may have had the most dominant 17 year old season they have ever seen, none of those scouts say that about all those other guys.

I didn’t bring up only Lafreniere. I brought up Lafreniere AND MANY OTHER PLAYERS. Trying to pounce on one of many is your attempt to deflect from proving the claim you seem to support. Either you can do it or not. I’m not waiting around any longer for it, so your next post is proving the claim or I guess there’s nothing further for us to discuss.

 

[TLEH]

Jack Hughes had generational production too. Not generational. Alexis Lafreniere had generational production too. Certainly not generational. I can keep going, but I think you get the point.

YOU made the argument that Laf had generational production and then when people show that his production does not reach Bedards level at all, then you deflect.

YOU also said that people are working off of emotion but refuse to talk about the things you "dont like" about Bedard (size, skating) but apparently ignore for Michkov (size, skating).

The only player since Dahlin I've been hoping to keep out of the Metro. And that's because I think there's an avenue where Michkov keeps scoring goals at this historic rate in the NHL, and is the best player of his generation.

Like even with Bedard, I have little doubt he'll be very good. Anything is always possible, but none of those conspiracies people voice for Michkov come with him. He skates better and he plays center too. His floor is higher. However, he doesn't have such overwhelming gifts that I believe there's almost any chance he ends up the best player in the league. Yeah, the shot is great, but it's not Ovechkin-like. It's more like Stamkos. He'll score at a similar rate to injury-free Stamkos. And the playmaking is very good, but it's not too elite. I have little doubt he'll be like a top 10 player in the NHL, a little like Hughes. But those players exist league wide. You can't really be too worried about them, as good as they are.

The players you worry about are the players that have that true generational potential. His goal scoring instincts really worry me as a fan of a team in his division. I have a feeling he'll score like 50 career goals against my team for his career and be the best player in the league once McDavid is into his early/mid 30's. Just got the feeling this is how his career is going to unfold, although it's obviously no certainty for many reasons.

 

[TLEH]

To be clear, this is not what is even being discussed.

Please show how it’s undeniable that Bedard is statistically superior to every player that has been discussed with this generational label pre-draft since McDavid. This is the claim. This includes Michkov, Wright, Lafreniere, Hughes, Dahlin, Svechnikov, Patrick, Matthews, Laine and I guess you can throw in Eichel (same draft as McDavid, but a pick later).

This is the claim. Don’t deflect this about one player. The claim was he’s the best. It’s not a contest how he compares statistically to one player.

Bedard PPG WHL 2.5 (17)
Stankoven PPG 2.0 (19)

Last player in a similar league to have this level of lead on his peers was McDavid.

Shane Wright? The same Shane Wright that didn't even lead the OHL in his draft year? That got outscored by 30+ points?

Matthews is the last player to be around Bedards level of draft year. Hard to compare him when he is playing in a much different league and environment than the other CHL comparables.

Also who is calling like almost this whole list generational?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

YOU made the argument that Laf had generational production and then when people show that his production does not reach Bedards level at all, then you deflect.

YOU also said that people are working off of emotion but refuse to talk about the things you "dont like" about Bedard (size, skating) but apparently ignore for Michkov (size, skating).

Dishonesty. What do you think this means and why did you leave it out of your explanation of my post?

Jack Hughes had generational production too. Not generational. Alexis Lafreniere had generational production too. Certainly not generational. I can keep going, but I think you get the point.

And to be clear, I didn’t say Michkov was a generational prospect. I was quite clear about that. He has areas that make it such that he’s not a generational prospect. Michkov simply lacks the talents needed to be a generational prospect. He has too many flaws. Do I think there’s a chance he’ll outplay his lower than generational prospect tag and be the best player in the NHL of his generation based on accomplishments when it’s said and done? Yes, I think there’s a decent chance of that.

I’m done arguing with you. I have no burden to prove your claim. You didn’t prove your claim and now want to muddy the waters.

 

[daver]

Looks like a contrarian, acts like a contrarian, is probably a contrarian.

 

[TLEH]

Dishonesty. What do you think this means and why did you leave it out of your explanation of my post?

And to be clear, I didn’t say Michkov was a generational prospect. I was quite clear about that. He has areas that make it such that he’s not a generational prospect. Michkov simply lacks the talents needed to be a generational prospect. He has too many flaws. Do I think there’s a chance he’ll outplay his lower than generational prospect tag and be the best player in the NHL of his generation based on accomplishments when it’s said and done? Yes, I think there’s a decent chance of that.

I’m done arguing with you. I have no burden to prove your claim. You didn’t prove your claim and now want to muddy the waters.

Never said you called Michkov generational. "It's based on emotion and the feeling they get watching Bedard."

You said this about Bedard, as if there is no STATISTICAL reason that people would come to this conclusion. When he is 17 his entire draft year yet still outscores the rest of the league by 36 points in 11 less games and has a .5 PPG lead on anyone else. While using emotion and feeling to talk about why Michkov is going to "possibly" be the best player in the NHL. Its hypocrisy.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Except when they don't. Kane, Kucherov, Gaudreau etc..

Bedard was a bit bigger than Kane (arguably closer to Crosby than Kane) at his draft and dominated more than Kane did at a slightly younger age. No reason to expect his dominance in the CHL will not translate as Kane's did but at a higher level.

Those 3 players would be even better if they were as big as fast as McDavid.

 

[Albatros]

Bedard is the best prospect since Crosby.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

He has a generational shot, amazing hands, Crosby/McDavid level hockey IQ, Great playmaking/vision and is extremely shifty. That gives him more tools than Matthews. He is better than Draisaitl at just about everything but puck protection as I can tell. He's not as fast/explosive as Mackinnon but he's a better shooter, has higher hockey IQ and probably is equally good as a playmaker. I'd say he's more talented than Mackinnon/Matthews/Draisaitl. He's closer to McDavid than the latter as far as I'm concerned. People are placing too much emphasis on speed. Crosby doesn't have McDavid's speed either but he was an equally talented player before injuries.

not when you're not even 5'10

big and slow can work...see: Mark Stone

small and slow isn't a recipe for success though..now obviously Bedard isn't slow, he's an above average skater but he doesn't have that "elite" gear in his arsenal that separates him from defenders

Like I said earlier, he dominated the CHL, World Juniors and playoffs at a level the other 3 couldn't.

to be fair, the World Juniors is watered down without Russia in it

 

[Toby91ca]

To be clear, this is not what is even being discussed.

Please show how it’s undeniable that Bedard is statistically superior to every player that has been discussed with this generational label pre-draft since McDavid. This is the claim. This includes Michkov, Wright, Lafreniere, Hughes, Dahlin, Svechnikov, Patrick, Matthews, Laine and I guess you can throw in Eichel (same draft as McDavid, but a pick later).

This is the claim. Don’t deflect this about one player. The claim was he’s the best. It’s not a contest how he compares statistically to one player.

I don't know of a single played that was hyped as "generational" since McDavid....in fact, I don't even know if McDavid was given that type of hype.

 

[ello]

not when you're not even 5'10

big and slow can work...see: Mark Stone

small and slow isn't a recipe for success though..now obviously Bedard isn't slow, he's an above average skater but he doesn't have that "elite" gear in his arsenal that separates him from defenders

to be fair, the World Juniors is watered down without Russia in it

Bedard outscored everyone on his own WJC team by at least 12 points

 

[Happyhary9]

I didn’t bring up only Lafreniere. I brought up Lafreniere AND MANY OTHER PLAYERS. Trying to pounce on one of many is your attempt to deflect from proving the claim you seem to support. Either you can do it or not. I’m not waiting around any longer for it, so your next post is proving the claim or I guess there’s nothing further for us to discuss.

Okay let's play your little game as dumb as it is.

Wright- is this a joke? Draft year wasn't even top 5 scorer in OHL let alone dominating it. Didn't make Canada at U20. Weak crap here.

Lafreniere- done proven already.

Hughes- a bit harder comparison. But Hughes scored a lost less on a US team that plays USHL (nit as good as CHL) and exhibition games vs college teams. Only direct comparison is WJC-20. Hughes 1ppg vs Bedard at 3.29 ppg. Ya not even close, so don't bring up your war excuse on this.

Dahlin- he plays D why even bring up his name. Can't compare stats.

Svechnikov- another joke right? Not even top 10 in points in the OHL. WJC-20 he had 5 assets in 5gp. Do I need to list Bedards stats again?

Patrick- another joke? Was averaging 1.39 ppg we he got hurt in the WHL, not in the same universe as Bedard.

Matthews- another hard comparison as he played in the NLA in draft year. Only direct comparison is WJC-20. Matthew 1.57 ppg t4th in scoring. Bedard 3.29 ppg 1st in scoring and dominanted. So ya don't bring up that weak war excuse.

Laine- tough direct comparison as he was in Liiga. So on to the WJC-20. Laine was very good 1.86 and 3rd in scoring. Didn't come close to dominanting like Bedard.

Eichel- the closest as he lead NCAA in ppg. But then fell way short of Bedard in the WJC-20 at under a ppg.


There happy. Sorry none of those guys had the statistical domminace as Bedard in his draft year. A couple of the closet were Eichel/Matthews (both 8/9 months older) both fell way short in the WJC-20, and the war excuse doesn't cover the gap not even close.

Look you can say I don’t think Bedard will be a generational NHL player because such and such skill, cause that is an opinion. But to try and deny that Bedard had an historic draft/17 year old season from a statical points is just flat wrong and sticking your head in the sand. Pretty much every scout and hockey historian acknowledge how dominant he was as a 17 year old. Now that doesn't guarantee anything in the NHL, but what he did/accomplished as a 17 year old is very very rare.

 

[ello]

At this point Bedard has done pretty much anything he possibly can to put himself into the Mcdavid tier, other than growing 3 inches. However, until he plays in the NHL there are always going to be valid reasons to question his physical ability to reach the heights that McDavid has. I feel like McDavid's skating will ultimately be more of a difference maker than Bedard's shot will be and if I had to guess I would say Bedard likely falls into his own tier. Maybe Matthews-like with more playmaking skills and increased competitiveness.

 

[Happyhary9]

Bedard outscored everyone on his own WJC team by at least 12 points

Funny how a couple posters keep saying that watered down theory about the WJC-20. Don't think they understand what watered down means. Why didn't players break records the year before? Why didn't everyone but up huge numbers this year like Bedard. Seems like the only guy that somehow a watered down bump in points was Bedard, didn't effect anyone else I guess.