Is Auston Matthews a "generational goal scorer"? A deep dive.

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Ovechkin has become one of the best goal scoring players in the NHL, however at the time he was drafted I don't remember anyone calling him generational the way it said about Crosby and McDavid.
Ovechkins reputation took a huge hit in that 05' world juniors during the lockout before he even entered the NHL. The whole hockey world was watching that tournament and the fact that they got smoked and Ovechkin left the gold medal game with an injury made him look "soft" or like the "typical Russian".

First impressions are big and probably a reason he was never looked at the same way as those guys.
 
In 2004 OV was not considered Generational, neither was Matthews. Would you trade OV for Sid in 2009? Or Matthews for McDavid now? The answer is no. It is not possible to be a Generational talent unless you are unanimously considered to be the best player in the NHL

There have been 5 Generational Talents at their draft year

LaFleur
Mario
Lindros
Sid
McDavid

Those are the only 5 names that should show up on discussion about Generational Talents.
Is this a joke of some sort? Like, I don't even think that Matthews is a generational talent (although, that isn't the argument being made in this thread - it is specifically focusing on his goal scoring, and how it relates to his peers)...but anyways, this argument is quite funny. The five players you've chosen don't include the three of the four greatest players of all-time? Howe, Orr, & Gretzky? I know they weren't drafted, something that seems to have factored into your strange definition of 'generational talent', but like, seriously man...you're totally undermining any ounce of credibility to your argument when you say "those are the only five names that should be discussed for generational talents".
 
Guy has the wrister and at some point will develop the bomb from the slot. What he has accomplished to this point is pretty amazing but he needs to work on his defensive game and being more consistent. I really think he needs to train with Crosby and MacKinnon this summer to take his game to the next level.
 
You are definately a knowledgeable poster who knows his way around the analytical parts of the game. But I'm not the only one who finds your posts come across as angry/condensing.
I'm sure you're not. People tend to feel that way when being proven wrong. Some people show repeatedly that they deserve a harsher tone, just like how the person who was making ridiculous comparisons about "generational ____" got a harsher tone in this thread from the OP.

In this thread the poster clearly mentions several times what matthews actually needs to go out and accomplish before earning the title of a generational goal scorer
No, he lays out what some people will need from Matthews before giving him his credit. He flat out calls him a generational scorer, which is beyond the terminology that I usually even go to, even though it is correct. He calls him the best goal scorer in the league, just like I have for some time. He explains how that level of dominance hasn't been seen in so long, just like I have for some time. He explains how using per 60 stats is better than the alternatives, just like I have for some time.

He clearly does not diminish other players contributions(highlights OV's greatness a s a goal scorer, pastranak being an elite goal scorer?
I do not diminish the contribution/accomplishments of other players. I repeatedly give them credit and call them the amazing players they are. Some people have raw points/goals so ingrained as an evaluation tool for player ability, despite the countless problems, that they equate explaining the context behind their production to be "diminishing" them.

You already have Matthews ranked as the best player
Please show me where I have said this. Seems like you're just making stuff up now.

or slightly below McDavid based on what he is done.
It is a fact that he is not as far behind McDavid as people think.

When people bring up the dominance of guys like Mackinnon/Draisaitl/Eichel you just resort to posting their /60 stats from the past 2 or 3 seasons. Matthews being higher in most of those statistics you define it as a fact that Matthews is superior to all those players.
While those players have had nice runs over small samples, Matthews has been a superior player over that time (despite being younger, in worse situations to produce), so when people on the Leaf forum gush and aww over them while we literally have the best goal scorer in the world and one of the best players in the world, then yeah, I'll point out how the Leaf player compares when context is accounted for.

Why do you not feel the same type of feelings when those original people are gushing over Mackinnon/Draisaitl/Eichel? Why are you okay with it being said about Matthews now? Seems to me you're just blindly following raw points. But when I post and substantiate why looking at per 60 statistics are more representative, and consider context, I'm arrogant and only care about one thing? Seems like a double standard.

When he was on his drought he deserved criticism.
No. Every player has cold streaks. He did not deserve 99% of the "criticism" (let's be honest, hate) that was being thrown his way. The team was struggling, but he was literally still the team MVP during the beginning of the year.

You have made threads like this before, go over and read them. If your being unbiased you'll see there is clearly a difference in how the tone comes across in your writing vs TDK88.
I suggest you go back and read the reception to those posts/threads, even from you specifically. You will see that the only thing that changed is people's willingness to accept it and not be so hostile towards the suggestion.
 
Glad auston is scoring goals but there is more to hockey than just putting the puck in the net. He is still 16 points behind mcdavid, 12 behind mackinnon, 11 behind pasta, etc.

Also, auston having a bigger lead on his peers than ovechkin in regards to /60 rates means absolutely nothing when ovi was actually winning rockets and scoring 65 goals.
 
Matthews is an elite goal scorer, that part is indisputable on the facts in evidence.

"generational talent" by definition is something that doesn't come along regularly .

Generational Talent – a player for the ages, one who can do things with a puck that no other player would even contemplate doing. Very, very few players will be deserving of this rating, probably one per decade.
 
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Glad auston is scoring goals but there is more to hockey than just putting the puck in the net. He is still 16 points behind mcdavid, 12 behind mackinnon, 11 behind pasta, etc.

Also, auston having a bigger lead on his peers than ovechkin in regards to /60 rates means absolutely nothing when ovi was actually winning rockets and scoring 65 goals.
so your idea of there being more to hockey than putting the puck in the net is having a linemate who puts the puck in the next. Very interesting analysis. It's also especially useful in a thread about his goal scoring
 
so your idea of there being more to hockey than putting the puck in the net is having a linemate who puts the puck in the next. Very interesting analysis. It's also especially useful in a thread about his goal scoring

Are you serious? Being a skilled playmaker is a part of being a good hockey player.

McDavid already has 5 more assists than auston is on pace for. But sure, mcdavid only has that many assists because he (paraphrasing) "has someone to put the puck in the net" rofl.

All I'm saying is that there is more to hockey than scoring goals. Also, that /60 rates don't mean very much compared to actually winning awards.
 
Glad auston is scoring goals but there is more to hockey than just putting the puck in the net. He is still 16 points behind mcdavid, 12 behind mackinnon, 11 behind pasta, etc.

Also, auston having a bigger lead on his peers than ovechkin in regards to /60 rates means absolutely nothing when ovi was actually winning rockets and scoring 65 goals.

Its simply one part of a larger equation and I think I was pretty explicit about the Ovi data not being any kind of "silly" attempt at saying Matthews > Ovi.

The main thing people should be getting from the Ovi stuff is that Matthews is outscoring his peers at rates not seen since Ovi some 12+ years ago (and in the case of 5v5 data, even longer).

Let's look at (arguably) the next best goal scorer of the last 15 years, Stamkos. Taking his first 4 years (09/10-12/13) and comparing him to his peers at the time shows him as #1 in g/gp by 0.04 (Matthews is #1 by 0.09), not even #1 in 5v5 g/60 (that was Crosby with a significant edge) and only #1 in all sit g/60 by about half of Matthews' lead on his peers (0.13 gap over #2 vs Matthews' 0.21 gap over #2).

So again, the idea here is that Matthews is obliterating his peers in a way that hasn't been seen since Ovi entered the league.

The lack of trophies and high single season goal totals is a completely valid concern and has been addressed a ton already (injuries, usage, etc). Assuming good health, I believe Keefe's usage will at the very least put Matthews' in a good position to contend for the Rocket each year moving forward.
 
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Its simply one part of a larger equation and I think I was pretty explicit about the Ovi data not being any kind of "silly" attempt at saying Matthews > Ovi.

The main thing people should be getting from the Ovi stuff is that Matthews is outscoring his peers at rates not seen since Ovi some 12+ years ago (and in the case of 5v5 data, even longer).

Let's look at (arguably) the next best goal scorer of the last 15 years, Stamkos. Taking his first 4 years (09/10-12/13) and comparing him to his peers at the time shows him as #1 in g/gp by 0.04 (Matthews is #1 by 0.09), not even #1 in 5v5 g/60 (that was Crosby with a significant edge) and only #1 in all sit g/60 by about half of Matthews' lead on his peers (0.13 gap over #2 vs Matthews' 0.21 gap over #2).

So again, the idea here is that Matthews is obliterating his peers in a way that hasn't been seen since Ovi entered the league.

The lack of trophies and high single season goal totals is a completely valid concern and has been addressed a ton already (injuries, usage, etc). Assuming good health, I believe Keefe's usage will at the very least put Matthews' in a good position to contend for the Rocket each year moving forward.

Good post.

I just disagree with the term "generational" being used for Matthew's and I don't believe /60 rates are the deciding factor in who is better at certain aspects.

I will take the player who actually scores more and wins the rocket over a player with a higher /60 rate.

But glad to see you're back. You are one of the better posters around here.
 
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In 2004 OV was not considered Generational, neither was Matthews. Would you trade OV for Sid in 2009? Or Matthews for McDavid now? The answer is no. It is not possible to be a Generational talent unless you are unanimously considered to be the best player in the NHL

There have been 5 Generational Talents at their draft year

LaFleur
Mario
Lindros
Sid
McDavid

Those are the only 5 names that should show up on discussion about Generational Talents.
Really?

If we are going back... it might be more like

Rocket Richard
Gordie "Mr Hockey" Howe
#4 Bobby Orr
The Great One
Super Mario
Sid the "Kid"
Connor McD

That is it, excluding goaltenders. Players that defined generations and truly changed the game. LaFleur falls into that next tier along with guys like Bossy, Beliveau, Messier, Ovi... top tier all-stars, but not quite generational. Lindros is an interesting one because he clearly was going to be generational, but injuries took that away from him, fairly or not.
 
Remember when Winnipeg thought Laine was a better goal scorer? Good times.
I remember their fans and his fans from Finland who said if Laine never got a concussion he would have won the Calder instead of Matthews. The most stupid argument was Laine deserved it more since he was 7 months younger than Matthews.
 
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Guy has the wrister and at some point will develop the bomb from the slot. What he has accomplished to this point is pretty amazing but he needs to work on his defensive game and being more consistent. I really think he needs to train with Crosby and MacKinnon this summer to take his game to the next level.

Imagine Matthews with a drive-train like Mack, Crosby or McDavid..Would be scary. He seemed to show signs of it in his rookie year but doesn't play with that same intensity much these days although it's clearly in him.

There were so many flashes of Forsberg in Matthews rookie year. The Trouba hit made him really change his game from "bulldog on a bone" to "rich man's Kessel".

He's playing amazing and has yet to even scratch the ceiling in potential imo.
 
I love Auston but I'm not a fan of handing out "Generational" titles (a much too overused term) until very late in or after a career. It is tiresome when Oiler fans do it and it's no better when we do it.

Yes he's a special goal scorer, best since Ovie (not sure how era comparisons work on this) but it is only recently that Ovie has been looked at as generational. Until we see some high 50s/low 60s goal seasons we just look silly. Goals per 60 are nice and all but he has to actually stay healthy and score the goals to ever be considered generational.

So the answer is no, but he may yet prove to be. Great read though and appreciate the OP's fine work.
 
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so your idea of there being more to hockey than putting the puck in the net is having a linemate who puts the puck in the next. Very interesting analysis. It's also especially useful in a thread about his goal scoring

It's giving up the puck to generate more goals instead of just shooting and trying to get personal goals. Sacrafice 2 own goals and create 5 team goals. Some people create the goals they don't just have a linemate that puts puck in net.
 
I'm sure you're not. People tend to feel that way when being proven wrong. Some people show repeatedly that they deserve a harsher tone, just like how the person who was making ridiculous comparisons about "generational ____" got a harsher tone in this thread from the OP.


No, he lays out what some people will need from Matthews before giving him his credit. He flat out calls him a generational scorer, which is beyond the terminology that I usually even go to, even though it is correct. He calls him the best goal scorer in the league, just like I have for some time. He explains how that level of dominance hasn't been seen in so long, just like I have for some time. He explains how using per 60 stats is better than the alternatives, just like I have for some time.


I do not diminish the contribution/accomplishments of other players. I repeatedly give them credit and call them the amazing players they are. Some people have raw points/goals so ingrained as an evaluation tool for player ability, despite the countless problems, that they equate explaining the context behind their production to be "diminishing" them.


Please show me where I have said this. Seems like you're just making stuff up now.


It is a fact that he is not as far behind McDavid as people think.



While those players have had nice runs over small samples, Matthews has been a superior player over that time (despite being younger, in worse situations to produce), so when people on the Leaf forum gush and aww over them while we literally have the best goal scorer in the world and one of the best players in the world, then yeah, I'll point out how the Leaf player compares when context is accounted for.

Why do you not feel the same type of feelings when those original people are gushing over Mackinnon/Draisaitl/Eichel? Why are you okay with it being said about Matthews now? Seems to me you're just blindly following raw points. But when I post and substantiate why looking at per 60 statistics are more representative, and consider context, I'm arrogant and only care about one thing? Seems like a double standard.


No. Every player has cold streaks. He did not deserve 99% of the "criticism" (let's be honest, hate) that was being thrown his way. The team was struggling, but he was literally still the team MVP during the beginning of the year.


I suggest you go back and read the reception to those posts/threads, even from you specifically. You will see that the only thing that changed is people's willingness to accept it and not be so hostile towards the suggestion.

McDavid has almost as many assists as Matthews has points.

Yeah, they’re real close alright. One’s about to win his third art ross trophy and likely his 2nd Hart but hey they’re close because your high school level advanced stats say so.

You do realize there is nothing advanced about advanced stats right? Not a single integral or derivative taken in anything I’ve seen. No distributions; neither Gaussian, Poisson, Laplace, whatever. Stochastic processes probably never even enter the picture either. Just p/60, WAR and other dumb numbers that you can crunch with an abacus.
 
Nope
 

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Honestly, once Ovechkin is gone, Matthews, Laine, Pettersson, Pastrnak will compete for the Rocket.

I would be shocked if between those guys, there aren't 6 or more seasons of 55- 60 goals in their careers. Shocked.

I'm afraid it's happening now. Ovie is going to have to start getting used to watching younger guys collect his trophy going forward. Slim chance he wins this year but I predict this is his last year even in the conversation.

Besides, 8 Richards for the Great 8 is just too perfect, he doesn't need another.
 
Matthews is NOT a generational talent. He has potential to be that dominant over his career. This is a thread thats about 16 years to early. Generational is a career distinction! Wtf with this stupid interpretation of a mere rookie in the league. Kicks mic
 
I'm afraid it's happening now. Ovie is going to have to start getting used to watching younger guys collect his trophy going forward. Slim chance he wins this year but I predict this is his last year even in the conversation.

Besides, 8 Richards for the Great 8 is just too perfect, he doesn't need another.

Haha I didn’t realize he holds 8. That is perfect and He is a generational talent. You know because he has played a era/ career at a highest level long enough for the distinguishing reputation among his peers
 

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