Is Auston Matthews a "generational goal scorer"? A deep dive.

[34]

Great goal scorer, not generational. Ovechkin is generational. Matthews is not even close yet.

So you came to the Leaf board to say that. Cool.

 

[81Leafs50]

Matthews will be the Ovie of his generation.

Matthews is NOT Ovie. But he is the Ovie of his generation, since Matthews generation has no 60 goal scorers in it.

 

[leburn98]

Matthews will be the Ovie of his generation.

Matthews is NOT Ovie. But he is the Ovie of his generation, since Matthews generation has no 60 goal scorers in it.

The crazy thing about Matthews was that prior to the draft, many were saying that Laine was to Matthews what OV was to Crosby. While not 1-for-1 comparisons, the idea behind it was that Laine was the better goal scorer, while Matthews was the better all around player. I think because of these comparisons, I, and many around here, completely underestimated Matthews goal scoring ability.

It is quite possible that at the end of their careers, Laine may be the better goal scorer. However, at this point in time there is zero doubt that not only is Auston Matthews a better all around player than Laine, he is a better goal scorer too.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The crazy thing about Matthews was that prior to the draft, many were saying that Laine was to Matthews what OV was to Crosby. While not 1-for-1 comparisons, the idea behind it was that Laine was the better goal scorer, while Matthews was the better all around player. I think because of these comparisons, I, and many around here, completely underestimated Matthews goal scoring ability.

It is quite possible that at the end of their careers, Laine may be the better goal scorer. However, at this point in time there is zero doubt that not only is Auston Matthews a better all around player than Laine, he is a better goal scorer too.

How much of that was because Laine got drafted to Winnipeg? If Columbus had got the 2nd overall pick instead of 3rd overall in 2016 would those Matthews vs Laine debates been the same like we saw?

 

[leburn98]

How much of that was because Laine got drafted to Winnipeg? If Columbus had got the 2nd overall pick instead of 3rd overall in 2016 would those Matthews vs Laine debates been the same like we saw?

Being a Jet/Finn certainly had something to do with the hype. The media were really hyping it up at the time too. If he were to go to Columbus, then the debates likely would have simmered down.

 

[TDK67]

Generational doesn't apply to an individual skill-set or position. Either you have the ability to be the best player in the league for a substantial period of time or you don't. Until Matthews wins a couple scoring titles, this isn't even a serious discussion.

Great player, but two things. He wasn't the best prospect of the 2010's (it was McDavid), and he hasn't put himself in serious Hart Trophy discussion yet in his career. So, in my books he isn't generational. If he can win multiple Harts or Lindsay awards I'll change my tune, but that isn't even a realistic discussion at this point. He's an absolutely amazing player. Probably the most talented player I've seen put on a Leafs jersey, but he isn't generational. But, neither were guys like Yzerman or Sakic, and I think we would all be ecstatic if he has a career that mirrors those guys.

I'm glad you at least have this (important) qualifier here. Too many times people present their opinions as facts, so thank you.

People are welcome to call/label Matthews whatever they want. Totally on board with that.

The lack of trophies and high goal totals in a single season are super valid concerns but I think Leafs fans--more than anybody--can appreciate that Matthews' usage under Babcock was far from what normal superstars get. Ovi was averaging nearly 4 minutes more per game in his first 4 years than Matthews has (and 6 mins of PP time vs 2.5 mins for Matthews). Is that because Matthews couldn't "handle" more minutes or because Babcock was a rigid egomaniac? I'm leaning more towards the latter but I guess Keefe will help answer a lot of that moving forward. Combine Matthews' poor usage with games missed from injuries and suddenly the goal total/trophy situation becomes a bit clearer. That's why I think there's genuine value in looking at rate stats--especially when we're talking about a sample size of over 250 games--as it helps even out those discrepancies (player-to-player and/or team-to-team).

Anyway. I think I was hoping that at most (if people actually read the entire OP) I could illustrate how abnormal Matthews' scoring rate is relative to his peers. So abnormal that it hasn't been seen since Ovechkin joined the league and in the case of 5v5 scoring even further back. In that regard the data we have is almost literally a once-in-a-generation phenomenon but again, people are free to label it however they want.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

So you came to the Leaf board to say that. Cool.

What would you like me to say?

 

[Dekes For Days]

There is another poster who has a similarish style to yours in terms of posting (actually thought you had made a 2nd account but one that was giving more hostile/angry opinions). The difference b/w these you and the other poster who also loves to mention /60 stats and EV stars is you made your thread seem much more open to discussion and are okay with people questioning some points/phrasing you used.

You are clearly talking about me, and what a gross misrepresentation of what I do. I post facts, not "hostile/angry opinions". I am always open to people questioning anything, and am consistently friendly and informative to those who wish to learn. I have done a ton of work to substantiate my position against anything people have brought forth. What I do not welcome is people outright dismissing and mocking reality as they provide no evidence or substantiation of their own.

It's easy to come in when he's doing well and has the flashy goal totals and get people to understand the special player we have in front of us. Maybe you forget how long I've been saying exactly this. Wasn't so simple when people were freaking out about his contract or a cold streak.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Matthews generation has no 60 goal scorers in it.

Yet...

And it almost certainly would already if teams got the same amount of PP time as they got back then.

 

[TDK67]

The crazy thing about Matthews was that prior to the draft, many were saying that Laine was to Matthews what OV was to Crosby. While not 1-for-1 comparisons, the idea behind it was that Laine was the better goal scorer, while Matthews was the better all around player. I think because of these comparisons, I, and many around here, completely underestimated Matthews goal scoring ability.

It is quite possible that at the end of their careers, Laine may be the better goal scorer. However, at this point in time there is zero doubt that not only is Auston Matthews a better all around player than Laine, he is a better goal scorer too.

Laine's shot is so otherworldly that I wouldn't be surprised if he won multiple Rockets (especially if Matthews misses games due to injury). However, after looking at all of the numbers and seeing just how absolutely insane Matthews is when it comes to improving his goal scoring each summer, I think Matthews finishes with a higher career G/GP.

The improvement thing is blatantly obvious when scrolling through Matthews' shot & goal maps year-by-year: IcyData » Auston Matthews Stats

The guy came in and was immediately one of the league's best scorers from in close. Then he went away and worked on his now-patented 'deceptive curl & release wrister' and became one of the best at scoring from in close and mid range. Then he went away and worked on his wrister some more and a new slap shot. Suddenly he's scoring from close range, mid range & long range. Then he keeps working on the slap shot and comes back this year to create a goal map that looks like he can score from literally anywhere in the offensive zone.

The training stuff I'm talking about might be a bit intangible but the data speaks for itself. Matthews' is clearly developing more and more elite goal scoring tools every year and I think that'll keep him separated from his peers.

 

[93LEAFS]

How much of that was because Laine got drafted to Winnipeg? If Columbus had got the 2nd overall pick instead of 3rd overall in 2016 would those Matthews vs Laine debates been the same like we saw?

Yes, it was fueled by the Finns. Just look at how they went after Hughes this year.

 

[pcruz]

I see Matthews as the best goal scorer in the league since Ovechkin.
I think he has the capability to score 50 goals every year and be a true, superstar #1 C with all the tools of Malkin and Kopitar rolled into a guy with the scoring prowess of Stamkos/Ovechkin.

Having said that, Laine has a superior shot and possibly so does Pettersson.
Not that I believe they will score more goals, they don't get into the danger areas that Matthews does nearly enough to maximize their goal scoring. EP will never do that as he's far too small.

Honestly, once Ovechkin is gone, Matthews, Laine, Pettersson, Pastrnak will compete for the Rocket.

I would be shocked if between those guys, there aren't 6 or more seasons of 55- 60 goals in their careers. Shocked.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Great goal scorer, not generational. Ovechkin is generational. Matthews is not even close yet.

Ovechkin has become one of the best goal scoring players in the NHL, however at the time he was drafted I don't remember anyone calling him generational the way it said about Crosby and McDavid.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I see Matthews as the best goal scorer in the league since Ovechkin.
I think he has the capability to score 50 goals every year and be a true, superstar #1 C with all the tools of Malkin and Kopitar rolled into a guy with the scoring prowess of Stamkos/Ovechkin.

Having said that, Laine has a superior shot and possibly so does Pettersson.
Not that I believe they will score more goals, they don't get into the danger areas that Matthews does nearly enough to maximize their goal scoring. EP will never do that as he's far too small.

Honestly, once Ovechkin is gone, Matthews, Laine, Pettersson, Pastrnak will compete for the Rocket.

I would be shocked if between those guys, there aren't 6 or more seasons of 55- 60 goals in their careers. Shocked.

I have said this stat before and I will say it again. When Matthews scored 40 goals in his rookie season, those were the most goals scored by any rookie since Ovechkin had 52 goals during his rookie year in the 2005-2006 season.

 

[pcruz]

I have said this stat before and I will say it again. When Matthews scored 40 goals in his rookie season, those were the most goals scored by any rookie since Ovechkin had 52 goals during his rookie year in the 2005-2006 season.

That season was stuffed to the brim with power plays, and he was a year older due to the lockout.

Still, what Alex did was not only continue to score a lot, he scored at a level that is almost incomprehensible.

The great team around him has always helped, as has the dedication of the team to make the guy the trigger man in as many situations as possible.

Something that cannot be said about the Leafs is that Matthews is the trigger man. He goes entire power plays without shooting, and sometimes without even possession in the offensive zone at all.

In Washington, despite having other very good scorers on the pp, they always look to get it to 8.

We don’t.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'm glad you at least have this (important) qualifier here. Too many times people present their opinions as facts, so thank you.

People are welcome to call/label Matthews whatever they want. Totally on board with that.

The lack of trophies and high goal totals in a single season are super valid concerns but I think Leafs fans--more than anybody--can appreciate that Matthews' usage under Babcock was far from what normal superstars get. Ovi was averaging nearly 4 minutes more per game in his first 4 years than Matthews has (and 6 mins of PP time vs 2.5 mins for Matthews). Is that because Matthews couldn't "handle" more minutes or because Babcock was a rigid egomaniac? I'm leaning more towards the latter but I guess Keefe will help answer a lot of that moving forward. Combine Matthews' poor usage with games missed from injuries and suddenly the goal total/trophy situation becomes a bit clearer. That's why I think there's genuine value in looking at rate stats--especially when we're talking about a sample size of over 250 games--as it helps even out those discrepancies (player-to-player and/or team-to-team).

Anyway. I think I was hoping that at most (if people actually read the entire OP) I could illustrate how abnormal Matthews' scoring rate is relative to his peers. So abnormal that it hasn't been seen since Ovechkin joined the league and in the case of 5v5 scoring even further back. In that regard the data we have is almost literally a once-in-a-generation phenomenon but again, people are free to label it however they want.

Matthews scoring is elite, but in my eyes, there are 4 guys who are clearly generational, and that is Gretzky, Lemieux, Howe and Orr. Past that it is debatable. I think you need to win multiple Harts/Lindsay's regardless of outside factors. The only guys of my lifetime, I would put in the discussion as generational are Gretzky and Lemieux, who are obvious. Then, I'd add Hasek, Jagr, Crosby and Ovi. McDavid has a shot to get there. Then, there are generational prospects, who are the best prospects to come along and happen every 5 to 10 years. That's Lemieux (although drafted slightly before I was born), Lindros (who was drafted when I was in preschool), Crosby and McDavid. For that, I think there has to be a clear and realistic expectation that the player is going to win multiple Harts. All have won atleast one. You'll notice, a lot of clear first ballot hall of famers are off my list, including Lidstrom, Yzerman, Roy, Brodeur, Sakic and Ray Bourque. All absolutely unreal players, but never seriously competed for multiple Harts. Matthews is an absolutely ridiculously talented player, if he stays healthy he will accomplish a lot of great things. He has the chance to be the best goal scorer in the league, but if we are throwing around the term generational, I think there should be a realistic expectation that the player will win multiple Harts and/or Lindsay's. To be generational you have to have such a level of dominance over your peers it is blatantly obvious to the writers and players you play against.

I have said this stat before and I will say it again. When Matthews scored 40 goals in his rookie season, those were the most goals scored by any rookie since Ovechkin had 52 goals during his rookie year in the 2005-2006 season.

It's the most goals scored by a D+1 rookie since Lemieux.

 

[LeafsNation75]

It's the most goals scored by a D+1 rookie since Lemieux.

I can honestly say I did not know that.

Also speaking of D+1 rookie seasons when Toronto made the playoffs that year, Matthews was the first player to be selected 1st overall and make the playoffs the following season since Nathan MacKinnon went 1st overall in 2013 and making the playoffs next year Colorado. Prior to that it was last done by Joe Thornton when he went 1st overall in 1997 and made the playoffs in 1998 with Boston.

 

[Chris18820]

Heres a quick list of empty net goals since AM entered the league

Ovi 12
Pasta 6
Kane 14
Mackinnon 9
Marchand 14
laine 8
Bergeron 11
Eichel 13
Auston Matthews 1

Only 1 cheapie from him..

 

[LeafsNation75]

Yes, it was fueled by the Finns. Just look at how they went after Hughes this year.

On the main boards I asked in a poll if Hughes and Kakko would have a similar "rivarly" like Matthews and Laine, since we had an American go 1st overall and a Finn go 2nd overall just like in 2016. The only difference between Matthews and Laine is that Hughes and Kakko would be playing in the division. However I was told it wasn't the same comparison and etc. Anyway I had no idea they went after Hughes, although it doesn't surprise me considering what they thought of Matthews in his rookie season.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Heres a quick list of empty net goals since AM entered the league

Ovi 12
Pasta 6
Kane 14
Mackinnon 9
Marchand 14
laine 8
Bergeron 11
Eichel 13
Auston Matthews 1

Only 1 cheapie from him..

The funny thing about Matthews only empty net goal is that it was his 40th goal in his rookie season. Although it did clinch their win over Pittsburgh and their playoff spot and what a better time to get it.

Also if you watch the replay and the clock on that goal, after the puck went into the net it says 3.4 seconds and Matthews wears #34.

 

[93LEAFS]

The funny thing about that is on the main boards I asked if Hughes and Kakko would have a similar "rivarly" like Matthews and Laine, since we had an American go 1st overall and a Finn go 2nd overall just like in 2016. The only difference between Matthews and Laine is that Hughes and Kakko would be playing in the division. However I was told it wasn't the same comparison and etc. Anyway I had no idea they went after Hughes, although it doesn't surprise me considering what they thought of Matthews in his rookie season.

Very few Jets fans actually drove that argument. It was a group of about 5 or so absurd Finnish posters who went nuts. I was arguing with them pre-draft lottery. Some Jets fans latched on to these peoples ridiculous takes, but they were in the minority. Rookie season it obviously got hectic with both having elite seasons. Obviously over the last 18 or so months, Matthews has created significant distance between the two.

I'm sure if Kakko and Hughes were competing for the Calder, there would be a huge pissing match between Devils fans and Rangers/Fins fans. Obviously, anything that involves the Leafs gets pushed into overdrive here, because of the size and how active our fanbase is, combined with some resentment towards our media coverage in general. Certain teams will always create that type of divide.

 

[hockeyes]

The funny thing about Matthews only empty net goal is that it was his 40th goal in his rookie season. Although it did clinch their win over Pittsburgh and their playoff spot and what a better time to get it.

Also if you watch the replay and the clock on that goal, after the puck went into the net it says 3.4 seconds and Matthews wears #34.

I can never not watch this clip when it's posted. What a great moment.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Very few Jets fans actually drove that argument. It was a group of about 5 or so absurd Finnish posters who went nuts. I was arguing with them pre-draft lottery. Some Jets fans latched on to these peoples ridiculous takes, but they were in the minority. Rookie season it obviously got hectic with both having elite seasons. Obviously over the last 18 or so months, Matthews has created significant distance between the two.

I'm sure if Kakko and Hughes were competing for the Calder, there would be a huge pissing match between Devils fans and Rangers/Fins fans. Obviously, anything that involves the Leafs gets pushed into overdrive here, because of the size and how active our fanbase is, combined with some resentment towards our media coverage in general. Certain teams will always create that type of divide.

I remember having my own debate during their rookie seasons with some Finnish posters and a few Jets fans as well. I also remember after the first time Matthews played Laine when Toronto blew that 4-0 lead and Laine got his first hat trick in overtime, I avoided the boards that night. So later on that season when they played for a second time in Toronto and with the Leafs winning that game in overtime, I was relived because Laine had 2 goals and I thought to myself oh no not again.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I can never not watch this clip when it's posted. What a great moment.

That clip and also this one is something I still watch today because of how big a moment it was for the Maple Leafs.

 

[hamzarocks]

You are clearly talking about me, and what a gross misrepresentation of what I do. I post facts, not "hostile/angry opinions". I am always open to people questioning anything, and am consistently friendly and informative to those who wish to learn. I have done a ton of work to substantiate my position against anything people have brought forth. What I do not welcome is people outright dismissing and mocking reality as they provide no evidence or substantiation of their own.

It's easy to come in when he's doing well and has the flashy goal totals and get people to understand the special player we have in front of us. Maybe you forget how long I've been saying exactly this. Wasn't so simple when people were freaking out about his contract or a cold streak.

You are definately a knowledgeable poster who knows his way around the analytical parts of the game. But I'm not the only one who finds your posts come across as angry/condensing.

In this thread the poster clearly mentions several times what matthews actually needs to go out and accomplish before earning the title of a generational goal scorer(he says he needs to win several Richards and continue this dominance into the future). He clearly does not diminish other players contributions(highlights OV's greatness a s a goal scorer, pastranak being an elite goal scorer? Mcdavid/crosby/OV all being generational players while Matthews is a generational goal scorer with room to maybe get to that stage rather than asserting he is that good already). You already have Matthews ranked as the best player or slightly below McDavid based on what he is done. When people bring up the dominance of guys like Mackinnon/Draisaitl/Eichel you just resort to posting their /60 stats from the past 2 or 3 seasons. Matthews being higher in most of those statistics you define it as a fact that Matthews is superior to all those players.

When he was on his drought he deserved criticism. Just like how he deserves all the love in the world since breaking out from the slump. Matthews did not improve as a player talent wise in 10-15 games. His skills improved over the summer. During the slump people were quesiting his work ethic and effort. That along with some poor luck was pushing him severely behind his comparables. Now that he has started producing the luck has reversed and his effort for the past 10 or so games has been probably the best in the team with him winning puck battles, back checking, taking the body occasionally.

You have made threads like this before, go over and read them. If your being unbiased you'll see there is clearly a difference in how the tone comes across in your writing vs TDK88.