Interesting Marner note

[Confucius]

I remember reporting that both CBJ and NYI were prepared to offer the McDavid contract to Marner and also that he was purely using them as a negotiating tactic.

I would have let them and taken the picks and capspace. Marner gone for 4 1sts, Mathews gone for 4 1sts. I think with 8 extra 1sts and 22 million in cap space for UFA signings we would be a better team today.

 

[Metroid]

I would have let them and taken the picks and capspace. Marner gone for 4 1sts, Mathews gone for 4 1sts. I think with 8 extra 1sts and 22 million in cap space for UFA signings we would be a better team today.

That would excite me.

 

[Racer88]

I would have let them and taken the picks and capspace. Marner gone for 4 1sts, Mathews gone for 4 1sts. I think with 8 extra 1sts and 22 million in cap space for UFA signings we would be a better team today.

Agree 100%. We would have been way further ahead now then with these two playoff ghosts

 

[Brobust]

I would have let them and taken the picks and capspace. Marner gone for 4 1sts, Mathews gone for 4 1sts. I think with 8 extra 1sts and 22 million in cap space for UFA signings we would be a better team today.

A bird in hand is better than two in the bush.

 

[Nineteen67]

I would have let them and taken the picks and capspace. Marner gone for 4 1sts, Mathews gone for 4 1sts. I think with 8 extra 1sts and 22 million in cap space for UFA signings we would be a better team today.

and not having to give away picks to unload salary in order to ice a compliant team.

 

[notDatsyuk]

A bird in hand is better than two in the bush.

Not if the bird in hand is scrawny, diseased, and can't lay eggs.

 

[Dayjobdave]

Cowan
Amirov
Sandin
Liljigren
Nylander
Gauthier
Reilly
Biggs/Percy

our last 8 firsts not counting Mpartner and Matthews.

I’ll keep the superstars. You could make a case for letting one of them go for the picks, not the unicorn centre though.

 

[Arzak]

I know math is difficult, I can help you.

Let's talk taxes.

Here is the estimated tax rate for the teams in question:
Colorado: 43.77%
Columbus: 46.61%
Tampa: 39.14%
Toronto: 53.17%

Here is what Marner's remaining contract would look like after taxes, if he played for the following teams:

Colorado: $6,130,756.9 [DIF: +$1,024,882]
Columbus: $5,821,111.7 [DIF: +$715,236.8]
Tampa: $6,635,565.8 [DIF: +$1,529,690.9]
Toronto: $5,105,874.9

Cap hits, adjusted to balance advantages:
Marner: $10,903,000
Kutch: $9,500,000 + $1,529,690.9 = $11,029,690.9
Gaudreau: $9,750,000 + $715,236.8 = $10,465,236.8
Rantanen: $9,250,000 + $1,024,882 = $10,274,882

Hey look at that, your point was disingenuous. Here to help.

Obviously the topic is more deep than this and you can adjust taxes further based off many other factors; but, let's not pretend each team has the same salary cap without advantages.

Try it again with a heavy signing bonus you can tax at the place of your choosing (off-season residence).


Oh boy, are you really using cap hits to calculate tax on his salary?


Even if we are assuming Marner is not able to earn any money from investments and/or is getting 0 interest, you still have to consider inflation.


No worries here to help, Marner got a $15,2 mill signing bonus +750k in the first year and $14.3mill + 750k the second year.

Yeah, it's the taxes because no one debunked that before.


Nice post, now tell us how you missed he got 30 mills as a signing bonus in his first year ( 1 year+1 day).

 

[sittler rules!!!]

Oh, if this were true. Rid of the Marners and 4 firsts as well. We might have a Cup by now

 

[Arzak]

Actually it tends to. The cap had a small increase between 08-09 at $56.7mil to $56.8 mil during the 09-10 season. And then increased up to $59.4 mil in 10-11. And then all the way up to $64.3 mil by the next season.

COVID was a unique/unpredictable impact on the league finances beacuse it impacted gate revenues in every market in the league all at once.

I get your point, it can go up, but it wasn't backed up by NHL balance sheet, it was players pushing the escalator otherwise we would have a flat cap.

 

[Gabriel426]

I don’t think we will be better if we traded MM and AM for 8 1st and 22mil cap space. But how much worse can we get? Not making the playoffs or first round exit is really not a huge difference.

Maybe with more play time and development guys like Kap and AJ would be better players today.
Having Hyman and Brown on the team would be great too.
Maybe we can pay Pietra more money and make him come home.
All these what if.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I would have let them and taken the picks and capspace. Marner gone for 4 1sts, Mathews gone for 4 1sts. I think with 8 extra 1sts and 22 million in cap space for UFA signings we would be a better team today.

We might have drafted Bedard and Fantili this year.

 

[Racer88]

We might have drafted Bedard and Fantili this year.

Or we might have gone deep in a cup run or even won the cup…….something we have never done with these 2

 

[Leaf Fans]

Or we might have gone deep in a cup run or even won the cup…….something we have never done with these 2

We might have. When we are discussing something that didn't happen, the possibilities are endless. I can just imagine Dubas enjoying the Cup(s) he won.

 

[Notsince67]

I would have let them and taken the picks and capspace. Marner gone for 4 1sts, Mathews gone for 4 1sts. I think with 8 extra 1sts and 22 million in cap space for UFA signings we would be a better team today.

Columbus would be a far better team today too. Might have gone to the playoffs while Toronto was left pining about why they keep missing them

 

[Funk21]

I remember reporting that both CBJ and NYI were prepared to offer the McDavid contract to Marner and also that he was purely using them as a negotiating tactic.

And we should have told him to leave and don’t let the door hit him on the way out. Instead we overpaid by a million dollars and have been in cap hell ever since and set a terrible precedent.

If some team is stupid enough to pay a play far more than he is worth then go let them. Chances are that offer sheet would have meant 4 first rounders and knowing how bad they were we would have likely gotten lottery picks.

 

[Notsince67]

And we should have told him to leave and don’t let the door hit him on the way out. Instead we overpaid by a million dollars and have been in cap hell ever since and set a terrible precedent.

If some team is stupid enough to pay a play far more than he is worth then go let them. Chances are that offer sheet would have meant 4 first rounders and knowing how bad they were we would have likely gotten lottery picks.

1 million is cap hell?

 

[ToneDog]

I don’t think we will be better if we traded MM and AM for 8 1st and 22mil cap space. But how much worse can we get? Not making the playoffs or first round exit is really not a huge difference.

Maybe with more play time and development guys like Kap and AJ would be better players today.
Having Hyman and Brown on the team would be great too.
Maybe we can pay Pietra more money and make him come home.
All these what if.

Dubas probably does not give away all the draft capital he did at the TDL. Hindsight is 20/20 but if we could have a redo, I'd take the 8 1sts and the cap space which could be used to acquire more picks/prospects.

 

[Gabriel426]

Dubas probably does not give away all the draft capital he did at the TDL. Hindsight is 20/20 but if we could have a redo, I'd take the 8 1sts and the cap space which could be used to acquire more picks/prospects.

Like I said, there is not really any different between losing the first round and missing the playoffs.

I think if Dubas had those 8 picks instead of AM and MM. Assuming JT was also signed. The Leafs would had end up with JT, Willie, Kadri, Marleau, Brown, Hyman, Kap, AJ, Moore, Soup and Goat as forwards. Defence still needed work and Andersen is in net. But Dubas would have 8 more 1sts and all the other TDL picks to either draft or trade for players.

Now would we have more success in the playoffs, that’s the question

 

[mydnyte]

I would have let them and taken the picks and capspace. Marner gone for 4 1sts, Mathews gone for 4 1sts. I think with 8 extra 1sts and 22 million in cap space for UFA signings we would be a better team today.

absolutely ZERO chance of that.
those 4 picks would be late 1st's to whatever team signed Matthews/Marner and likely would be of zero impact to our club.
Unless we also tanked hard afterwards and got really lucky and drafted well, we'd be 100% screwed.
in 2020 Isles had pick 28 (traded it) (without Marner) Greig 20 games played in nhl, next 5 picks zero nhl games
in 2021 Isles had pick 29 (traded it) (without Marner) Chase Stillman zero games, and zero games by any player picked after till the 52nd pick
in 2022 Isles had pick 13 (traded it) Nazar
in 2023 Isles had pick 17 (traded it) Sandin-Pellika
with Marner, 22 and 23's picks wouldnt have been as low as they were, and are still nothing to write home about.

 

[Confucius]

absolutely ZERO chance of that.
those 4 picks would be late 1st's to whatever team signed Matthews/Marner and likely would be of zero impact to our club.
Unless we also tanked hard afterwards and got really lucky and drafted well, we'd be 100% screwed.
in 2020 Isles had pick 28 (traded it) (without Marner) Greig 20 games played in nhl, next 5 picks zero nhl games
in 2021 Isles had pick 29 (traded it) (without Marner) Chase Stillman zero games, and zero games by any player picked after till the 52nd pick
in 2022 Isles had pick 13 (traded it) Nazar
in 2023 Isles had pick 17 (traded it) Sandin-Pellika
with Marner, 22 and 23's picks wouldnt have been as low as they were, and are still nothing to write home about.

And who could have we added for 10.5 million per year from the ufa market those years? No matter how you spin it, Marner has less value than a 10.5 million ufa and 4 1sts. What would you expect to get for Marner in a trade?

 

[mydnyte]

And who could have we added for 10.5 million per year from the ufa market those years? No matter how you spin it, Marner has less value than a 10.5 million ufa and 4 1sts. What would you expect to get for Marner in a trade?

i'd expect at least a #1D of like age,
or
an up and coming future #1D, plus for Marner. i.e. Power

lets use the Isles as an example, Dobson may have #1 D potential, but, there would be some serious adds to Dobson for marner.

we may undersell Marner because of his salary, but, he's a arguably the 2nd-3rd best RWer in hockey

Rantanen had a career season unlike anything he's done before, so, expectation of a repeat are slim, and every other season Marner has been the better overall player.
Pasta is right handed but is usually on the left side
then there is Kutch, and now (only the past 2 seasons) Tkachuk in the mix
as an overall player Marner is better than all of them, though, not as a goal scorer, but, as a complete player.

He slots into any teams top line RW spot with ease and would play on their top PP, and PK ...none of the others can say that to the same level as Marner.

​

 

[Buds17]

Like I said, there is not really any different between losing the first round and missing the playoffs.

I think if Dubas had those 8 picks instead of AM and MM. Assuming JT was also signed. The Leafs would had end up with JT, Willie, Kadri, Marleau, Brown, Hyman, Kap, AJ, Moore, Soup and Goat as forwards. Defence still needed work and Andersen is in net. But Dubas would have 8 more 1sts and all the other TDL picks to either draft or trade for players.

Now would we have more success in the playoffs, that’s the question

I think there's a meaningful difference between being first round fodder and missing out on the playoffs altogether (save for the playoff berth in 2013, I remember 2006-2016 for all the wrong reasons). I also can't imagine any of Andersen, Marleau or Tavares being brought in if the plan was going to involve letting Matthews and Marner go for offer sheet compensation.

 

[Funk21]

1 million is cap hell?

1 million for Marner. 500k for Nylander, AM getting 500-750 more than he should have. That is a pretty decent player we could have had on our team.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think there's a meaningful difference between being first round fodder and missing out on the playoffs altogether (save for the playoff berth in 2013, I remember 2006-2016 for all the wrong reasons). I also can't imagine any of Andersen, Marleau or Tavares being brought in if the plan was going to involve letting Matthews and Marner go for offer sheet compensation.

Well, whats difference is that between missing out on playoffs and first round exits?
We will still most likely watch the games, win or lose, we will still most likely curse the team for losing and praise the team for winning.

Also, Andersen, Marleau and JT was brought in before AM and MM got their new contracts.

The scenario would be after the first season of JT where AM and MM will be RFA. What happened was AM signed the new contract before hitting RFA status but MM didn't.

This is all a what if and hindsight discussions. What if Dubas didn't sign a new contract with AM and MM and let them sign OS and end up getting 8 first rounders. I really don't think the Leafs at that time would miss the playoffs without AM and MM as this would be their team at that time.

Hyman-JT-Willie
AJ-Kadri-Kap
Marleau-Spezza-Brown
Soup-Engvall-Moore

Reilly-Hainsy(will probably be resign by Dubas)
Muzzin-Zait
Dermott-Holl

Andersen and Sparks

The difference is the lineup are Kadri, Marleau, Brown, Hainsy and Zait out and AM, MM, Kerfoot, Ceci and Barri in.
The difference between those five are not as big as we you can imagine. No doubt AM and MM are more talented than anyone there but I would take Hainsy and Zai over Ceci and Barri that season any day. Plus Brown and Kadri were really good 2 liners at that time.

That along with 8 picks plus Dubas manage to keep Marleau instead of giving away a 1st and got another 16mil or so of cap space to spend.
Then you look at what Vegas had done with their draft currency and how they turned them into trades to get players. Not saying Dubas would make the Leafs into a contenders or even win the Cup but the results will most likely be the same as now. Which is ONE playoff round victory.