Interesting Marner note

[Lightsol]

It's nice to know that a bunch of people here are so excited over the possibility of multiple first rounders that they've entirely forgotten how well the Leafs draft in the teens. And let's not kid ourselves; barring a collapse by the team in question, there's a good chance any team that offer sheets either Matthews or Marner ends up with a pick between 11 and 20. Check out the history of the Leafs picking in that range, and then come back and say you'd rather take that chance.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It's nice to know that a bunch of people here are so excited over the possibility of multiple first rounders that they've entirely forgotten how well the Leafs draft in the teens. And let's not kid ourselves; barring a collapse by the team in question, there's a good chance any team that offer sheets either Matthews or Marner ends up with a pick between 11 and 20. Check out the history of the Leafs picking in that range, and then come back and say you'd rather take that chance.

I think we've drafted pretty well the last few years, no reason to think we can't draft well going forward because of "history". I mean if we're just going assume history keeps repeating itself, then were doomed and it doesn't matter what we do. I don't believe that though and I'd be surprised if anyone else does either.

 

[Buds17]

Well, whats difference is that between missing out on playoffs and first round exits?
We will still most likely watch the games, win or lose, we will still most likely curse the team for losing and praise the team for winning.

Also, Andersen, Marleau and JT was brought in before AM and MM got their new contracts.

The scenario would be after the first season of JT where AM and MM will be RFA. What happened was AM signed the new contract before hitting RFA status but MM didn't.

This is all a what if and hindsight discussions. What if Dubas didn't sign a new contract with AM and MM and let them sign OS and end up getting 8 first rounders. I really don't think the Leafs at that time would miss the playoffs without AM and MM as this would be their team at that time.

Hyman-JT-Willie
AJ-Kadri-Kap
Marleau-Spezza-Brown
Soup-Engvall-Moore

Reilly-Hainsy(will probably be resign by Dubas)
Muzzin-Zait
Dermott-Holl

Andersen and Sparks

The difference is the lineup are Kadri, Marleau, Brown, Hainsy and Zait out and AM, MM, Kerfoot, Ceci and Barri in.
The difference between those five are not as big as we you can imagine. No doubt AM and MM are more talented than anyone there but I would take Hainsy and Zai over Ceci and Barri that season any day. Plus Brown and Kadri were really good 2 liners at that time.

That along with 8 picks plus Dubas manage to keep Marleau instead of giving away a 1st and got another 16mil or so of cap space to spend.
Then you look at what Vegas had done with their draft currency and how they turned them into trades to get players. Not saying Dubas would make the Leafs into a contenders or even win the Cup but the results will most likely be the same as now. Which is ONE playoff round victory.

The difference is the Burke era (no playoffs) versus the Lamoriello era (first round exits). Lamoriello traded for a starter in Andersen in order to augment the young stars that were deemed capable of propelling the team from the basement. The GM then signed Marleau after the team made the jump into a playoff spot. Continued playoff appearances and the opportunity to play alongside Marner formed part of the pitch for Dubas landing Tavares as a free agent. I'm suggesting that it doesn't make sense to add those players externally if the plan is ultimately to convert Matthews and Marner into a boatload of draft picks. I believe any worst case scenario for the team would have involved matching the hypothetical offer sheets (Dubas/management wasn't letting go of either Matthews or Marner).

 

[Gabriel426]

The difference is the Burke era (no playoffs) versus the Lamoriello era (first round exits). Lamoriello traded for a starter in Andersen in order to augment the young stars that were deemed capable of propelling the team from the basement. The GM then signed Marleau after the team made the jump into a playoff spot. Continued playoff appearances and the opportunity to play alongside Marner formed part of the pitch for Dubas landing Tavares as a free agent. I'm suggesting that it doesn't make sense to add those players externally if the plan is ultimately to convert Matthews and Marner into a boatload of draft picks. I believe any worst case scenario for the team would have involved matching the hypothetical offer sheets (Dubas/management wasn't letting go of either Matthews or Marner).

It is a hypothetical discussions of what would happen to the Leafs if they let AM and MM go via OS.
You are reasoning they won’t do it….but what the others and I are discussing is the what if scenario not if it is possible. You are free to join the discussions by saying Leafs won’t be better off as they might sign Duchense with the extra cap space or getting swept in the playoffs…but it is quite fruitless to just say it wasn’t their intentions to do it bc we are not discussing reasons to do it but rather what would happen with the Leafs if they did.

Like we can start a discussion about Leafs trading AM and MM before AM even play a game in the NHL for McD and wonder if the Leafs will be better off.

 

[Arzak]

I would have let them and taken the picks and capspace. Marner gone for 4 1sts, Mathews gone for 4 1sts. I think with 8 extra 1sts and 22 million in cap space for UFA signings we would be a better team today.

Realistically we would also have another 3-4 1st rounders on Folignos and buybacks to compete now with this core.

Imho we paid for both. First top dollars and now we are paying top picks just to keep this core afloat - not to improve (because no we can't sign them all despite what happened), take a step back and see the whole picture. We need to pay high-end picks every year as additional sacrifice to these albatross contracts.

 

[Notsince67]

1 million for Marner. 500k for Nylander, AM getting 500-750 more than he should have. That is a pretty decent player we could have had on our team.

Less than a kerfoot.

 

[darrylsittler27]

I think Marner has more value to some teams eager to make the playoffs than people think. Colombus doesnt need him to win them a round but they sure need his points to get into the playoffs and that has major value.

Im convinced either Nylander or Marner will be moved now. For cap and mere fact we need a stud defensemen.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

These guys remind me of Beaker from the Muppets.

It's all "me me me me me me me".

Once upon a time there was pride in wearing the blue leaf. It meant something. I don't see that in these younger guys.

At some point the players became more important than the team.

It's because these guys are far more valuable than the four first round draft picks compensation an offer sheet would provide. Take eight swings at it. Chances are you won't get two players like Matthews and Marner.

Just ask Ottawa, Arizona, and Buffalo.

That's why Marner's agent using offer sheets as a bargaining tool is blasphemous. Whether it was Ferris who approached those other teams, or the other way around, I'll let you decide for yourself. The fact is Marner had not one, but two offer sheets that summer.

I don't think it's a coincidence Marner signed first among his peers.

And took home the most.

 

[Sypher04]

Ah back to the old tax excuses. How about factoring in the wads of money Marner is paid up front and the money he gets for endorsements ?? Nah, let's ignore those "advantages"..

Taxes are a factor that directly effect take home NHL pay. Endorsements are money paid for services provided outside of NHL obligations. They are not the same.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think Marner has more value to some teams eager to make the playoffs than people think. Colombus doesnt need him to win them a round but they sure need his points to get into the playoffs and that has major value.

Im convinced either Nylander or Marner will be moved now. For cap and mere fact we need a stud defensemen.

Another valuable thing that Marner brings is the ability to sell tickets. Say what you want about the kid but he's a ton of fun to watch during the regular season.

I've was saying this after we lost to MTL - Marner is more valuable to some other teams than he is to us. We want to win in the playoffs, playoffs are Marner's weak spot so trade him to a team that needs sell tickets and isn't a lock to make the playoffs. That way we extract max value because his playoff f***ups won't be held against him.

Of course his NMC has kicked in, he's not going anywhere so whatever.

 

[ToneDog]

Taxes are a factor that directly effect take home NHL pay. Endorsements are money paid for services provided outside of NHL obligations. They are not the same.

Sure but how much is he getting in endorsements playing in another market? I'm guessing less that he is as a Leaf??

 

[Sypher04]

Sure but how much is he getting in endorsements playing in another market? I'm guessing less that he is as a Leaf??

Likely, but ultimately immaterial. While the amount one can make in endorsements might affect their decision to sign here, no question, it won’t change what they expect to be paid for their NHL work.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

This place is gonna be on fire when Mitchy signs his $13m per year extension, I'm gonna love it.

 

[tmlms13]

I would have let them and taken the picks and capspace. Marner gone for 4 1sts, Mathews gone for 4 1sts. I think with 8 extra 1sts and 22 million in cap space for UFA signings we would be a better team today.

Agree 100%. We would have been way further ahead now then with these two playoff ghosts

Those might be the dumbest posts I have ever seen

I hope you realize that they don't get them all in the same draft right? All those extra picks will be in the 20's from 2020,21,22,23 drafts. Not to mention players drafted in the 20's take longer to develop if they ever become anything at all. But 22 million in cap space? Because we all know that the most important players on a team are the ones who got signed through UFA, and those contracts never age bad. Just ask John Tavares. The Leafs would become a lottery team again for those 4 years.

But that's okay because we got to walk on stage at the draft a few extra times.

 

[tmlms13]

And we should have told him to leave and don’t let the door hit him on the way out. Instead we overpaid by a million dollars and have been in cap hell ever since and set a terrible precedent.

If some team is stupid enough to pay a play far more than he is worth then go let them. Chances are that offer sheet would have meant 4 first rounders and knowing how bad they were we would have likely gotten lottery picks.

You realize that the player who got offer sheeted gets to play for that team too right. And that they are likely going to make that team better? And that the better the team the worse the draft picks will be?

Not sure if you can wrap your brain around that one.

 

[tmlms13]

Well, whats difference is that between missing out on playoffs and first round exits?
We will still most likely watch the games, win or lose, we will still most likely curse the team for losing and praise the team for winning.

Also, Andersen, Marleau and JT was brought in before AM and MM got their new contracts.

The scenario would be after the first season of JT where AM and MM will be RFA. What happened was AM signed the new contract before hitting RFA status but MM didn't.

This is all a what if and hindsight discussions. What if Dubas didn't sign a new contract with AM and MM and let them sign OS and end up getting 8 first rounders. I really don't think the Leafs at that time would miss the playoffs without AM and MM as this would be their team at that time.

Hyman-JT-Willie
AJ-Kadri-Kap
Marleau-Spezza-Brown
Soup-Engvall-Moore

Reilly-Hainsy(will probably be resign by Dubas)
Muzzin-Zait
Dermott-Holl

Andersen and Sparks

You honestly think that is a playoff roster? It's barely an AHL roster.

 

[Confucius]

Those might be the dumbest posts I have ever seen

I hope you realize that they don't get them all in the same draft right? All those extra picks will be in the 20's from 2020,21,22,23 drafts. Not to mention players drafted in the 20's take longer to develop if they ever become anything at all. But 22 million in cap space? Because we all know that the most important players on a team are the ones who got signed through UFA, and those contracts never age bad. Just ask John Tavares. The Leafs would become a lottery team again for those 4 years.

But that's okay because we got to walk on stage at the draft a few extra times.

Draft shmaft, ok Cliff… I guess you’re surprised the league even bothers with a 2nd round because anybody after 20 in the 1st can’t help.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

But not a hint of any of this for players like Rantanen. Aho can't get more than 8.5x5 yet Marner with slightly better (and even that's arguable) stats gets 13x7.

I have a bridge to sell you...

The "offer" from CBJ was supposedly around $11M for 7yrs and MM wanted 5yrs at $11M and the Marner camp "Gave" us a deal by giving us a 6yr 11M deal....that's how good Dubas was at negotiating. You would have thought that if Dubas won the Willy negotiation like we are being told...he would have been more bold in his dealings with AM and MM...but alas...he was good at squeezing marginal bargain bin guys...so that's something I guess.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

"Marner isn't overpaid. It's just that all of his direct comparables are underpaid." Interesting take.

Sometimes I'm literally bewildered by what I read on these forums...

Isn't it amazing to read that their comparables are underpaid and our guy is NOT overpaid? If you have 5 guys and 3 of them go under and 2 over...you can argue semantics and say they took below market...but when 4 of the 5 take less...that IS the market and the 5th guy is overpaid....it really boggles my mind that we keep hearing that only leaf players know their worth out in the market but players with the same agency somehow miss out on this fact when doing their deals....astounding logic...astounding.

 

[666]

I was shocked that compensation for a $2 - $4.1m offer is only 2nd rounder but then once you offer $4.2 it becomes 1st and 3rd...like where is the middle ground?!?!?

It's even worse because a bad team has to give up earlier / better picks than a good team.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Notice how when there are rumors like this for other players, they're just "rumors" and rarely turn out to be true? But when they're about Marner being given a 7x12.5 offer sheet, it's "fact"?

It's infuriating.

To make things worse...they are saying Guadreau was rumored to be offered 12.5M which is 3M more than what he signed for. So how can we seriously believe that Marner was offered 13mx7? How can anyone believe it?

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Do you actually believe that Marner would take less if he had a do over? Hell no, he’d take his 10.93 over and over again and I don’t blame him. A lot of fans call players greedy but we’ve never been in that position. You’re trying to create generational wealth and maximize the amount of money you can make. You’re going to fight for every penny you think you deserve.

Taking less than you deserve isn’t noble, it’s stupid as f*** from a business standpoint. Players are a brand and their own entity.

Fair enough...but when they retire without a cup because they got every penny they deserved....don't complain when people have the "Ya but.." inserted into the conversation when talking about the best players at their position. You just can't have every penny and win with a lackluster supporting cast in this league. So if the player is more concerned with the penny's they grab than their legacy...that is totally up to them.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The "offer" from CBJ was supposedly around $11M for 7yrs

Media claims about negotiations should be taken with a grain of salt, but the rumour was actually 13m x 7.

 

[andora]

Media claims about negotiations should be taken with a grain of salt, but the rumour was actually 13m x 7.

That is insane if legit

 

[IPS]

Less than a kerfoot.

Interesting way to diminish the value of cap space.

I look at it as those few extra milloon that could have been used for a high impact player via trade or free agency.