Interesting Info: Part XXII (Jackets-related "tidbits" here)

[cbjthrowaway]

They are 13 points out of a playoff spot after a soft schedule.

They have to know they are out of it.

Nyquist& Roslovic should be given, Gavrikov as well if he’s not re-signing.

Just don’t see a longterm spot for Roslovic on the team

IMO Jack is gonna get Max Domi'd: traded for a paltry return, produce a few good moments for his new team, go cold for long stretches and eventually sign a 'prove it' deal with a bottom-feeding team.

Him having the extra year might make that hard to do at the deadline, but I'd be shocked if he's still here for opening night in 2023.

As for Gavrikov… well, if he was gonna sign, I think he would have already. Left side of that defense is gonna look rough, but I think they'll trade one of the righties to plug that hole.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Sounds like the FO knows this season is shot , and is going to be aggressive to acquire all the assets possible for this draft . Guys most likely in play , Nyquist, Gavrikov , Texier , Boquist , Roslovic , possibly Robinson , and Merzlikins . Also it time to move KJ to center and let him play major minutes . Same with Chinakov , should be playing 18 min per night .

nyquist: yes

gavrikov: yes, will be the best LHD on the market at the deadline

texier: no team would want a guy who can't come over this year and might not come back ever; CBJ has no reason to move him at what is his lowest possible value

boqvist: tentative yes; I'd give him a chance to re-establish some value, though. I think he's fighting with peeke for the long term #2 RHD spot, kind of depends on who ends up as the #2 LHD after gavrikov leaves. If it looks like mateychuk is gonna kick down the door, peeke would be a better partner.

roslovic: yes. don't think they could get much for him at this point (although some teams out there apparently like him) but it's clear that he's not in their plans and is on the way out.

robinson: yes. people are gonna bring up the johnny stuff but he'd be a very valuable deadline piece. johnny knows it's a business and has other friends in the room.

merzlikins: makes way more sense to move korpisalo imo. more value + expiring contract, could get something nice for him. elvis's contract makes him a negative asset right now, jackets are better off giving him another year (perhaps as tarasov's backup) and a new goalie coach, or buying him out.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

nyquist: yes

gavrikov: yes, will be the best LHD on the market at the deadline

texier: no team would want a guy who can't come over this year and might not come back ever; CBJ has no reason to move him at what is his lowest possible value

boqvist: tentative yes; I'd give him a chance to re-establish some value, though. I think he's fighting with peeke for the long term #2 RHD spot, kind of depends on who ends up as the #2 LHD after gavrikov leaves. If it looks like mateychuk is gonna kick down the door, peeke would be a better partner.

roslovic: yes. don't think they could get much for him at this point (although some teams out there apparently like him) but it's clear that he's not in their plans and is on the way out.

robinson: yes. people are gonna bring up the johnny stuff but he'd be a very valuable deadline piece. johnny knows it's a business and has other friends in the room.

merzlikins: makes way more sense to move korpisalo imo. more value + expiring contract, could get something nice for him. elvis's contract makes him a negative asset right now, jackets are better off giving him another year (perhaps as tarasov's backup) and a new goalie coach, or buying him out.

Buying out 4 years of a 5 year deal is disaster in the long run. Elvis is going to get the opportunity to right the ship. D is a disaster with no real fix in the foreseeable future. Might as well ride it out and hope we become the 2nd coming of the NJ Devils.

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

The Second Coming of the Devils, I like it.

 

[CBJx614]

nyquist: yes

gavrikov: yes, will be the best LHD on the market at the deadline

texier: no team would want a guy who can't come over this year and might not come back ever; CBJ has no reason to move him at what is his lowest possible value

boqvist: tentative yes; I'd give him a chance to re-establish some value, though. I think he's fighting with peeke for the long term #2 RHD spot, kind of depends on who ends up as the #2 LHD after gavrikov leaves. If it looks like mateychuk is gonna kick down the door, peeke would be a better partner.

roslovic: yes. don't think they could get much for him at this point (although some teams out there apparently like him) but it's clear that he's not in their plans and is on the way out.

robinson: yes. people are gonna bring up the johnny stuff but he'd be a very valuable deadline piece. johnny knows it's a business and has other friends in the room.

merzlikins: makes way more sense to move korpisalo imo. more value + expiring contract, could get something nice for him. elvis's contract makes him a negative asset right now, jackets are better off giving him another year (perhaps as tarasov's backup) and a new goalie coach, or buying him out.

Agree with most of this.

I don't think Jarmo is moving Boqvist unless someone offers an overpayment. And agree about Merz, goalies are fickle and having a bad year in a season when our D is absolutely decimated and we are once again the youngest team in the league is not a good time to move a goalie, especially when your not sure if you have the answer in waiting.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Buying out 4 years of a 5 year deal is disaster in the long run. Elvis is going to get the opportunity to right the ship. D is a disaster with no real fix in the foreseeable future. Might as well ride it out and hope we become the 2nd coming of the NJ Devils.

FWIW I was saying to buy Elvis out in the summer of 2024 (i.e. give him one more year under a new goalie coach) if he doesn't turn it around by then. Here's the math on that buyout. Changing the date to 2023, it doesn't look all that bad tbh.

Agree with most of this.

I don't think Jarmo is moving Boqvist unless someone offers an overpayment. And agree about Merz, goalies are fickle and having a bad year in a season when our D is absolutely decimated and we are once again the youngest team in the league is a good time to move a goalie, especially when your not sure if you have the answer in waiting.

Boqvist strikes me as a "main piece in a multi-part package for an established veteran" kind of trade chip rather than someone to squeeze value out of individually.

A lot of people on this board have kinda given up on the guy, but he's still really young. He's still just 22, two years younger than Peeke and Blankenburg. Defensemen are a lot slower to develop, he still has a really high ceiling.

Hopefully he doesn't have too much rust when he returns to the lineup, he should be able to play big time minutes and PP1. Could turn himself back into a significant asset, either forcing his way into the Jackets' future plans or becoming a valuable trade chip.

 

[DarkandStormy]

The Second Coming of the Devils, I like it.

I don't think this FO is smart enough to hire Andrew Brunette. He might not met the Lars Bar.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

FWIW I was saying to buy Elvis out in the summer of 2024 (i.e. give him one more year under a new goalie coach) if he doesn't turn it around by then. Here's the math on that buyout. Changing the date to 2023, it doesn't look all that bad tbh.


Boqvist strikes me as a "main piece in a multi-part package for an established veteran" kind of trade chip rather than someone to squeeze value out of individually.

A lot of people on this board have kinda given up on the guy, but he's still really young. He's still just 22, two years younger than Peeke and Blankenburg. Defensemen are a lot slower to develop, he still has a really high ceiling.

Hopefully he doesn't have too much rust when he returns to the lineup, he should be able to play big time minutes and PP1. Could turn himself back into a significant asset, either forcing his way into the Jackets' future plans or becoming a valuable trade chip.

Buying out and losing 1.8 million a year in cap space for 8 years on a 2023 buyout is horrendous. 6 years and 1.75 isn’t that much better.

The Second Coming of the Devils, I like it.

I do too. Especially when I just realized they still have Luke Hughes playing at Michigan and Simon Nemec in the AHL.

 

[BB88]

IMO Jack is gonna get Max Domi'd: traded for a paltry return, produce a few good moments for his new team, go cold for long stretches and eventually sign a 'prove it' deal with a bottom-feeding team.

Him having the extra year might make that hard to do at the deadline, but I'd be shocked if he's still here for opening night in 2023.

As for Gavrikov… well, if he was gonna sign, I think he would have already. Left side of that defense is gonna look rough, but I think they'll trade one of the righties to plug that hole.

If Gavrikov won’t re-sign that would create a major hole on the defense.

But atleast he should return a 1st+ and it wouldn’t stop them from going after defense during the offseason.
They could have plenty of cap to spend.

If they want to be competitive in 23-24 they have to either get him re-signed or sign someone else to replace him(Toews would be awesome).

 

[majormajor]

If Gavrikov won’t re-sign that would create a major hole on the defense.

But atleast he should return a 1st+ and it wouldn’t stop them from going after defense during the offseason.
They could have plenty of cap to spend.

If they want to be competitive in 23-24 they have to either get him re-signed or sign someone else to replace him(Toews would be awesome).

Devon Toews is unfortunately not a UFA this coming summer. Not that many intriguing candidates. Orlov?

Just checking now, I think the intriguing LD UFAs (as of now) would be Orlov, Graves, Dumoulin, maybe Soucy.

I want a veteran who can skate, hold the fort for a couple years until the kids are ready.

 

[BB88]

Devon Toews is unfortunately not a UFA this coming summer. Not that many intriguing candidates. Orlov?

Just checking now, I think the intriguing LD UFAs (as of now) would be Orlov, Graves, Dumoulin, maybe Soucy.

I want a veteran who can skate, hold the fort for a couple years until the kids are ready.

Toews could be Colorados cap casualty.

With Macks contract it’s going to be difficult to keep the band together longterm.

So their answer is probably one of the Dmen will get traded.

 

[majormajor]

Toews could be Colorados cap casualty.

With Macks contract it’s going to be difficult to keep the band together longterm.

So their answer is probably one of the Dmen will get traded.

They have a short list of more underperforming players, like Girard, that they'll move if they have to. Toews is more core for them.

 

[BB88]

They have a short list of more underperforming players, like Girard, that they'll move if they have to. Toews is more core for them.

But can they sign him longterm?

He’s going to get far more than what Girard is making and then they’d have Makar/Byram/Toews on 1D/2D money contracts while having Mackinnon& Rantanen on big money contracts and having a major hole at 2C.

They need to gain the cap space and/or the assets to add on offense

 

[DougKnowsBest]

Hot rumor.... new years eve game moved up because the arena staff (union) was going to no show... wants to watch the osu game

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Hot rumor.... new years eve game moved up because the arena staff (union) was going to no show... wants to watch the osu game

Or they just moved it because they knew people would not buy tickets or no show and watch football. I find it hard to believe an OSU game was written into a Union contract.

 

[squashmaple]

Hot rumor.... new years eve game moved up because the arena staff (union) was going to no show... wants to watch the osu game

lol, what union? CBJAM certainly isn't union and that's nearly all gameday staff including guest serevices, box office, and security.

 

[Cowumbus]

Athletic player cards are out

 

[Cowumbus]

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Athletic player cards are out

a few notes from the CBJ player cards:


in the preseason, dom had boone (0.3 GSVA) and laine (0.9 GSVA) as poorly projected players even next to gaudreau (4.3) and even suggested that gaudreau's projection was too high. i said on here that the likelihood of that outcome (given how much the model weighs on-ice events) was practically impossible.

well… johnny's projected GSVA is now at 4.4. laine and jenner are both projected at 2.2 GSVA now. likewise, werenski's GSVA projection went from 1.3 to 1.9 before the injury.

as a result, laine ($8.0m) and werenski ($8.3m)'s market values aren't too far off what their actual cap hits are – both from contracts which dom admonished repeatedly. jenner's skyrocketed from $3.6m last year to $8m this year, too.

what does all of that mean? well… not much. his model still conflates on-ice events with individual player impact without accounting for flawed systems/team performance/etc. case in point: CBJ having four defensemen with negative market value, including peeke and gavrikov.

dom isn't the biggest fan of providing context, so let's look for some in his cards.

DEFENSIVE IMPACTS BY YEAR

	Werenski	Gavrikov
19-20	+18.9	+17.8
20-21	+0.6	-0.6
21-22	-24.5	-27.6
22-23 (proj)	-1.6	-24.9

they were both, according to The Model™, very good defensive players in 2019-20, which just happened to be the last time the team made the playoffs and was still clearly built to play john tortorella hockey (still had jones, savard, foligno, anderson, dubois).

they were then average the next year, where the bones of the torts era were still there but the forwards were a mess (pld out for a struggling laine, anderson out for domi, etc).

then in the first larsen year, both guys were suddenly among the worst defensive defensemen in the league. gavrikov is now playing 25+ per night with marcus bjork.

dom's model pins all of that on the individual player, but both had the exact same severe degradation in their results over the same time frame. that timeframe happened to coincide with roster reconstruction and a huge coaching/systems change.

anyway, his model now has four blue jackets defensemen as having straight up negative value. the only two who don't (and the one with the least negative value) have all been out for a long time with injuries. it's presented as individual players being bad when the reality is that it's a team defensive issue.

 

[CBJx614]

Depending on the cost to acquire and the extension costs. Jarmo should be all over this.

If we get the similar play from this team as we've have the last few nights with Horvat added to the roster, I don't see how this team isn't a playoff team, maybe not this year but moving forward.

Also I know "it's gonna affect our draft stock" but does anyone seriously Jarmo is NOT gonna make a move because it might take us out of a lottery pick?!


If Vancouver really is looking to the take the best offer, it signals to me, teams that want him long term are going to be able to offer him the most. I don't see him making it to the market this offseason, whoever gets him is gonna look to extend, so rental teams would likely be out of the discussion.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Also I know "it's gonna affect our draft stock" but does anyone seriously Jarmo is NOT gonna make a move because it might take us out of a lottery pick?!

Jarmo 100% should be all over this. The team is bad enough in net / on defense to still be bad even with Horvat.

Also… assuming Gavrikov ends up eventually getting traded, we're probably looking at Tim Berni as the #1 LHD, or having a couple righties playing on the left. That coupled with Elvis in net means a lot of losses even if we're scoring 4-5 goals a night.

If Vancouver really is looking to the take the best offer, it signals to me, teams that want him long term are going to be able to offer him the most. I don't see him making it to the market this offseason, whoever gets him is gonna look to extend, so rental teams would likely be out of the discussion.

Agreed – and the Jackets can absolutely offer the most. Something around Peeke + one of the young wingers + another prospect and a 2024 pick for Horvat extended $9m x 6 years would make sense for everyone involved IMO.

 

[CBJx614]

Jarmo 100% should be all over this. The team is bad enough in net / on defense to still be bad even with Horvat.

Also… assuming Gavrikov ends up eventually getting traded, we're probably looking at Tim Berni as the #1 LHD, or having a couple righties playing on the left. That coupled with Elvis in net means a lot of losses even if we're scoring 4-5 goals a night.

Agreed – and the Jackets can absolutely offer the most. Something around Peeke + one of the young wingers + another prospect and a 2024 pick for Horvat extended $9m x 6 years would make sense for everyone involved IMO.

9M might be a little to expensive for me. If he wants anything over 8.5M I wouldn't do it. 8M is really pushing it imo but if we get anywhere near the 4M rise in cap next season, I would be willing to go 8.5M ish

 

[cbjthrowaway]

9M might be a little to expensive for me. If he wants anything over 8.5M I wouldn't do it. 8M is really pushing it imo but if we get anywhere near the 4M rise in cap next season, I would be willing to go 8.5M ish

to be clear, i don't think horvat's individual contributions are worth $9m, but i do think it's worth offering him a contract in that range if it ensures that the jackets are the ones to get him.

just trying to weigh the following factors:
- alternative options (few if any)
- opportunity cost
- acquisition cost
- medium-term cap picture
- surplus value from other players
- trickle-down impact on other player roles
- future cap inflation

basically, the jackets have a realistic opportunity to go get him, but only if they pay above (current) market value. the contract won't change, but the market will adjust upwards toward the AAV figure as the cap goes up.

in the meantime, they have enough ELC guys (plus jiricek/mateychuk/2023 pick) to be able to go over market value on a guy like horvat, and horvat's presence here will put younger guys into easier situations where they can provide more excess value.

if we're just looking at individual player value, he's not a $9m player, but what he represents to CBJ specifically is probably worth about that much (if not more) – it's not worth missing out on him over $500k of cap hit given the lack of alternative options out there.

 

[MoeBartoli]

a few notes from the CBJ player cards:


in the preseason, dom had boone (0.3 GSVA) and laine (0.9 GSVA) as poorly projected players even next to gaudreau (4.3) and even suggested that gaudreau's projection was too high. i said on here that the likelihood of that outcome (given how much the model weighs on-ice events) was practically impossible.

well… johnny's projected GSVA is now at 4.4. laine and jenner are both projected at 2.2 GSVA now. likewise, werenski's GSVA projection went from 1.3 to 1.9 before the injury.

as a result, laine ($8.0m) and werenski ($8.3m)'s market values aren't too far off what their actual cap hits are – both from contracts which dom admonished repeatedly. jenner's skyrocketed from $3.6m last year to $8m this year, too.

what does all of that mean? well… not much. his model still conflates on-ice events with individual player impact without accounting for flawed systems/team performance/etc. case in point: CBJ having four defensemen with negative market value, including peeke and gavrikov.

dom isn't the biggest fan of providing context, so let's look for some in his cards.

DEFENSIVE IMPACTS BY YEAR

	Werenski	Gavrikov
19-20	+18.9	+17.8
20-21	+0.6	-0.6
21-22	-24.5	-27.6
22-23 (proj)	-1.6	-24.9

they were both, according to The Model™, very good defensive players in 2019-20, which just happened to be the last time the team made the playoffs and was still clearly built to play john tortorella hockey (still had jones, savard, foligno, anderson, dubois).

they were then average the next year, where the bones of the torts era were still there but the forwards were a mess (pld out for a struggling laine, anderson out for domi, etc).

then in the first larsen year, both guys were suddenly among the worst defensive defensemen in the league. gavrikov is now playing 25+ per night with marcus bjork.

dom's model pins all of that on the individual player, but both had the exact same severe degradation in their results over the same time frame. that timeframe happened to coincide with roster reconstruction and a huge coaching/systems change.

anyway, his model now has four blue jackets defensemen as having straight up negative value. the only two who don't (and the one with the least negative value) have all been out for a long time with injuries. it's presented as individual players being bad when the reality is that it's a team defensive issue.

Overall I have few qualms over Dom’s recent scorecard. Peeke should have been rated low. Gav is the one where I have the greatest issue as he has him slotted as top pair for his model - he’s not - and while he hasn’t had a great year its not been a bad year either……Ranking Elvis, Voracek and Gud as contractual huge negatives were spot on.

 

[majormajor]

if we're just looking at individual player value, he's not a $9m player, but what he represents to CBJ specifically is probably worth about that much (if not more) – it's not worth missing out on him over $500k of cap hit given the lack of alternative options out there.

For me the "but we really need him" premium moves Horvat up from $7m to $8m, not $8m to $9m.

Agreed – and the Jackets can absolutely offer the most. Something around Peeke + one of the young wingers + another prospect and a 2024 pick for Horvat extended $9m x 6 years would make sense for everyone involved IMO.

Peeke, Marchenko, Knazko, 2024 2nd?

If you meant that to be a 2024 1st, I think that's way too much.

If they still want Roslovic I think it would make sense to include him (perhaps in lieu of the pick or the prospect). I hate saying that while Jack is on a heater. But looking at our cap situation for next year I think we want to move that deal.