Interesting Info: Part XXI (Jackets-related "tidbits" here)

[Cowumbus]

 

[DarkandStormy]

^I do think OBJ would be considered a top 15-20 RW in the league if he'd stayed healthy the last few years to play ~95% of the available games.

He had 21-15-36 in 49 games in '19-'20 (the team played, what, 73 games?).
He had 18-26-44 in all 56 games last year, but with the team being so bad he sort of flew under the radar nationally.
He's 6-12-18 in 16 games so far this season.

Each year, he has a month long stretch where he goes above a point a game it seems like.

He's 45-53-98 in his last 121 games. That's a 31-36-67 pace over 82 games with often minimal PP time at best. If he'd been on the top unit of an even league-average power play you're talking closer to 115-120 points since the start of '19-'20.

As it is, since the start of last season (70-75 games total for most teams), here are the RWs who have put up a better points per game average thean Bjorkstrand:
-Nikita Kucherov (just 3 regular season games, but don't think anyone is arguing Ollie is better than Kuch)
-Mikko Rantanen (37-42-79 in 64 games)
-Patrick Kane (21-62-83 in 71 games)
-Mitch Marner (26-58-84 in 75 games)
-Mark Stone (21-46-67 in 62 games)
-David Pastrnak (25-38-63 in 63 games)

That's it. Only Marner and Kane have scored more points at 5v5 among RWs since the start of last season. And Bjorkstrand, while no penalty killer, is no slouch defensively and consistently ranks very high among shot share / possession type stats.

 

[koteka]

Assuming they will do a video for Dubois. I hope they at least troll him and do a video for Riley Nash first.

I like this idea. Let him wonder if it is going to happen.

That said, we have finally had some success as a franchise. So the video tributes would allow the fans to relive that success.

Riley Nash had 2 goals and 3 assists in his playoff career for the Jackets. He played in 17 playoff games including the sweep against Tampa and the win over Toronto in the play in round. Compare that to the guy who had his jersey retired, Rick Nash, who had 1 goal and 2 assists in 4 career playoff games and never won a playoff game. Hell yes Riley Nash deserves a video tribute.

Enjoy the recent success. Don’t feel bitter about it. Play a video that includes Riley Nash scoring a goal against Tampa in the playoffs. Let the fans cheer. That is better to watch than Rick Nash making an absolutely beautiful move in the regular season for a team that had no success. Play a video of PLD’s hattie against Toronto in game 3. Those were the high points of this franchise. Watch them again and again.

 

[thebus88]

Panarin showed up to work everyday and didnt let any contract thought affect his play. Same for Bob even though his situation was also pretty public.

I just have to call BS on the Bobrovsky part. I don’t remember exactly what happened, but, there were legit issues with Bob during training camp and the start of that season. I believe he was “late” in a few situations, and said things that you never want your starting goalie to say. Not professional at all.

I believe the team admittedly had MULTIPLE meetings throughout the ENTIRE year essentially, and while Panarin got much of the focus, I believe they were all mainly because of Bobrovsky, again, your teams starting goalie.

Not only that, but, some may remember that he didn’t play good at all to start that year, there were some questions about his “focus” and effort level and Korpisalo was actually seeing a lot of starts at the beginning of the year.

I believe they might have been evaluating Korpisalo and the possible decision to trade Bob then, but, decided that he wasn’t ready, not much trade value, and/or the optics of trading Bobrovsky weren’t ideal with the team in “win now” mode, and Bobrovsky subsequently got the bulk of the starts after that.

I believe there were many more negative feelings from Jones and others, probably Torts also, regarding Bobrovsky, that we will probably never know about.

 

[thebus88]

since the trade…

Josh Anderson:

31 points in 72 games, 0.43 ppg. -22

Max Domi:

31 points in 60 games, 0.52 ppg. -13

———————

max is at a PPG this season while Josh doesn’t even have a half a point per game. (9 points in 20 games)

Samuel Knazko who the Jackets also acquired (his pick) in the trade is sitting at 14 points in 15 games as a defenseman in

U20 SM-sarja

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Domi is so much better offensively, it’s CRAZY the things that were being said last year regarding the trade. Also, “defensively” I don’t think there’s much difference at all. Anderson ‘cherry picks’ much more than he gets “credit” for, and his defensive awareness, really his entire on-ice awareness, is lacking, IMO.

While Domi clearly isn’t as big or aggressive at times, it’s not as if he doesn’t play with an edge, or that Anderson has some Reaves, Tom Wilson, etc qualities to his physicality. If anything, you could argue that Domi actually does more than Anderson in response to other teams taking liberties against the CBJ.

The other sad thing is just how many people seem to actually even want to (even try to) bring him back after this year. He brings much more to the ice than many other guys.

 

[thebus88]

IIRC Dubois did the same thing on a junior team. When a guy shows you who he is, believe him. For all we know he might get sick of Winnipeg one day and start moping around. Not our problem anymore. I'd be more frustrated with him but I frankly like the team better this way. Laine and Jack are good, and our team isn't dependent on PLD as a long term 1C "solution". If you offered me this outcome or the alternative of him staying I'd genuinely choose this route.

As much as I hate to say it, the team still NEEDS a center, maybe 2, and “on his game Dubois” makes us better than “on his game Laine”. IMO.

We’re LOADED with shooting wingers, Laine or not. Yes, Laine is obviously the better shooter, but…..I don’t know where I’m going with this.

I’d like somebody better or different than Dubois or Laine on the CBJ, for what they do or will get paid moving forward, if I’m honest. More offensive Dubois or better overall playing Laine is what we need.

 

[thebus88]

I wonder who makes the decision if there is a tribute video or not.

I do kinda miss the hilarious ‘John Davidson calls all the shots’ narrative.

Let’s go with that.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I do kinda miss the hilarious ‘John Davidson calls all the shots’ narrative.

Let’s go with that.

He probably edits the hightights for them, too.

 

[LJ7]

As much as I hate to say it, the team still NEEDS a center, maybe 2, and “on his game Dubois” makes us better than “on his game Laine”. IMO.

We’re LOADED with shooting wingers, Laine or not. Yes, Laine is obviously the better shooter, but…..I don’t know where I’m going with this.

I’d like somebody better or different than Dubois or Laine on the CBJ, for what they do or will get paid moving forward, if I’m honest. More offensive Dubois or better overall playing Laine is what we need.

I get what you're saying but in the alternate "we keep PLD" universe we may not have Sillinger in our ranks for all we know. I'm fine with not hitching our wagons to PLD to be a franchise 1C. He's at a position of need but it isn't like we lost another Panarin level player. PLD level centers don't grow on trees, but they're not impossible to acquire. Specific Laine type players are a rarity.

Having the finishing talent of Bjorkstrand and Laine (and Chinakhov if he keeps improving) is a pretty unique and intriguing team build. Multiple truly elite finishing wingers can be a huge positive and cause major problems for opposing defenses. In a league where goalies are so good, deploying multiple wingers who can beat goalies clean from distance can take this team to a different level given some others areas get shored up. In many games the Jackets could end up with 2 (or 3!) guys with better wrist shots than anyone on the opposing team which can be a problem for some modern defenses that prevent chances from in close.

Obviously this is all hypothetical best case scenario outlook stuff, but my point is I can see the vision our FO has with hoarding good finishers.

 

[majormajor]

I get what you're saying but in the alternate "we keep PLD" universe we may not have Sillinger in our ranks for all we know. I'm fine with not hitching our wagons to PLD to be a franchise 1C. He's at a position of need but it isn't like we lost another Panarin level player. PLD level centers don't grow on trees, but they're not impossible to acquire. Specific Laine type players are a rarity.

Having the finishing talent of Bjorkstrand and Laine (and Chinakhov if he keeps improving) is a pretty unique and intriguing team build. Multiple truly elite finishing wingers can be a huge positive and cause major problems for opposing defenses. In a league where goalies are so good, deploying multiple wingers who can beat goalies clean from distance can take this team to a different level given some others areas get shored up. In many games the Jackets could end up with 2 (or 3!) guys with better wrist shots than anyone on the opposing team which can be a problem for some modern defenses that prevent chances from in close.

Obviously this is all hypothetical best case scenario outlook stuff, but my point is I can see the vision our FO has with hoarding good finishers.

It's a bit accidental.

We obviously benefit from having this caliber of shooting talent. But they've been trying to build around centers forever and it just hasn't worked. Johansen was problematic, Dubois forced his way out. Jarmo could have traded Dubois for Laine much earlier and he didn't want to.

 

[Viqsi]

Dom Luszczyszyn's latest has him finally changing his tone about the Jackets to about where many of us have been for the last few weeks:
16 Stats: The Thanksgiving rule, the Islanders's demise, the Leon Draisaitl start

6. I don’t want to come across as too flippant with the Blue Jackets’ chances to make the playoffs this season as the team’s fan base has been through enough. I don’t want to provide false hope either and as I always say to teams my model doubts: It’s fun to have an algorithmic enemy, to prove the math wrong. Columbus is embracing that early.

The team seems like the obvious candidate to fall out of the playoff race with their current odds sitting at just 14 percent. That doesn’t jive with their current 11-6-0 record though and it ignores that the team has been trending up of late. After a sloppy first five games, Columbus has a solid 53 percent expected goals rate over its last 12 games, enough to push the team toward break-even for the season. With great goaltending that should be enough for a playoff spot – so why isn’t the model a fan?

Simply put, the strength of the East is the biggest thing holding Columbus back. A stubborn set of priors that doesn’t quite believe in this team yet is part of the issue as the Blue Jackets current expected win percentage is .440, up from .409 to start the season. But even if the model rated Columbus as an average team it would only bump the team’s playoff chances up to 42 percent. Still more likely to miss.

The competition is just too fierce and there are 11 other teams with more reason to believe in. That, and the Blue Jackets have had a bit of a cushy schedule. Their opponents’ average expected win percentage has been .472 to start the year. It’ll be .515 the rest of the way.

The bolded in particular suggests that his model now reflects the same reason why, despite really enjoying how the team is doing so far, I'm also not ready to proclaim us playoffs-ready quite yet. But hey, it's nice to see more folks finally starting to take a deeper look, especially after that inexcuable heap of garbage from Pronman.

 

[majormajor]

Dom Luszczyszyn's latest has him finally changing his tone about the Jackets to about where many of us have been for the last few weeks:
16 Stats: The Thanksgiving rule, the Islanders's demise, the Leon Draisaitl start

The bolded in particular suggests that his model now reflects the same reason why, despite really enjoying how the team is doing so far, I'm also not ready to proclaim us playoffs-ready quite yet. But hey, it's nice to see more folks finally starting to take a deeper look, especially after that inexcuable heap of garbage from Pronman.

Yes I get the point that the East is probably just going to be too hard, and also that we've had an easier schedule to start with.

Does Dom have player ratings for individual Jackets? He mentioned his "stubborn set of priors" but I'd like to know what exactly that is referring to.

 

[Viqsi]

Yes I get the point that the East is probably just going to be too hard, and also that we've had an easier schedule to start with.

Does Dom have player ratings for individual Jackets? He mentioned his "stubborn set of priors" but I'd like to know what exactly that is referring to.

I've no real idea how his model does this stuff, but I'm kind of assuming he didn't do the wise thing and just throw last year out entirely.

 

[majormajor]

I've no real idea how his model does this stuff, but I'm kind of assuming he didn't do the wise thing and just throw last year out entirely.

He must have projections for individual Jackets though. IIRC he does that for every team. We might be able to see who he is selling short.

 

[Viqsi]

He must have projections for individual Jackets though. IIRC he does that for every team. We might be able to see who he is selling short.

Well, to start, I think it's safe to assume that Sillinger and Chinakov are both above expectations...
Beyond that, IDK. Maybe he stuffed that somewhere in his preseason predictions at one point, but I'm pretty sure those get adjusted as new games come in, so...

 

[ViD]

Podkolzin to Columbus (e4)

 

[Viqsi]

Welp, that's it folks, it's over. We've been jinxed.
NHL power rankings: The Capitals, Hurricanes and Panthers have a lot to be thankful for this season

16. Columbus Blue Jackets
Record: 11-6-0
Last Week: 23
Dom rank: 16
Sean rank: 16

What should this team be thankful for? That they got their due in The Rankings before the wheels could fall off. That one actually goes for the Blues, as well. No greater privilege.

Dom: The best way to predict a slide down the standings is the moment Sean and I give in and say “fine, here’s a spot in the power rankings that’ll probably be too high when all is said and done, but is fine for now.” Who knows how long this will last, but hey it’s fun for now — especially as a vehicle for a spicy “was losing Seth Jones addition by subtraction?” take.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Welp, that's it folks, it's over. We've been jinxed.
NHL power rankings: The Capitals, Hurricanes and Panthers have a lot to be thankful for this season

Still don’t care what the Athletic thinks.

 

[Viqsi]

Still don’t care what the Athletic thinks.

I was mostly approaching that from an "amused detachment" perspective, not a "OMG outrage" perspective. "Now we can watch the team backslide in peace" and stuff like that.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I was mostly approaching that from an "amused detachment" perspective, not a "OMG outrage" perspective. "Now we can watch the team backslide in peace" and stuff like that.

Understood and sharing here is of course totally appropriate. I just wanted to weigh in with my unchanged opinion of that trash.

 

[Bobcat110]

Understood and sharing here is of course totally appropriate. I just wanted to weigh in with my unchanged opinion of that trash.

It’s hilarious, he’s worried about getting CBJ fans hopes up and then letting us down when CBJ ultimately miss playoffs

His “model” has seven eastern teams finishing with 100+ points, six of them with 105+, and Rangers taking 2nd wildcard spot by 9 points over 9th place Flyers. So the top 8 teams finish season with average of 105.375 and bottom 8 finish averaging 80.75.

Something is weighted wrong to expect that much disparity in the playoff and non-playoff teams. Since 2012, the most teams in Eastern Conference to reach 105 points in same year is 4. The most to reach 100 points is 6. And the biggest points difference between 8th and 9th place was 3 points.


Trash indeed.

 

[Cowumbus]

Hmm

 

[tunnelvision]

Hmm

Just hoping he's okay. Has anyone spotted him at NWA?

 

[Cowumbus]

Just hoping he's okay. Has anyone spotted him at NWA?

Hoping he’s okay?

 

[tunnelvision]

Hoping he’s okay?

It is a weird thing to tweet, considering that no one seems to know what he's been up to ever since his career ended. Check the GDT, people supposedly more knowledgeable than me were talking about this.