If it's not Jack Campbell who should be the Leafs new #1 goalie?

[BertCorbeau]

So you're saying if he plays in a team line the Leafs that will be to 3 in their division we should expect .920sv% from him? I agree. There is no reason he can't bounce back. He's 28 and to your point been playing on a team that for the last 3 years has been bad.

Certainly potential there.

But the Leafs market tends to not favour goalies very well

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Odds are low Mrazek is not moved but there is a small chance that Mrazek is part of a tandem with a goalie making up to $3m IMO if Leafs think he can come back or they can't find a taker for a reasonable sweetener or he is healthy enough not to qualify for Robidas island.

Dubas has definitely got some fancy foot moves to make soon when it comes to his goaltending situation. Goaltending has been his kryptonite since he took over from Lou. Here we are into year 5 with Kyle in charge and our goaltending situation is the worst it has been since Shanny took over. Dubas needs to get this right or it will probably be 7 consecutive first round exits.

I am so curious as to how things play out with Mrazek. He has 2 more seasons under contract which makes things harder for Kyle.

What if Kyle still believes in him? What if his intentions are to continue with his tandem vision (Campbell/Mrazek)? Why else would he offer Mrazek 3 years in the first place?

Let's say Mrazek is 100% healthy. Is he capable (enough talent/head strong) to be part of a tandem on a winning team?

 

[ToneDog]

I am so curious as to how things play out with Mrazek. He has 2 more seasons under contract which makes things harder for Kyle.

What if Kyle still believes in him? What if his intentions are to continue with his tandem vision (Campbell/Mrazek)? Why else would he offer Mrazek 3 years in the first place?

Let's say Mrazek is 100% healthy. Is he capable (enough talent/head strong) to be part of a tandem on a winning team?

As much as some fans don't like the option, a tandem of Mrazek and a 2-3m partner is an option. Risky but an option but my guess is that Leafs have seen enough of Mrazek.

 

[Mess]

Odds are low Mrazek is not moved but there is a small chance that Mrazek is part of a tandem with a goalie making up to $3m IMO if Leafs think he can come back or they can't find a taker for a reasonable sweetener or he is healthy enough not to qualify for Robidas island.

Dubas has definitely got some fancy foot moves to make soon when it comes to his goaltending situation. Goaltending has been his kryptonite since he took over from Lou. Here we are into year 5 with Kyle in charge and our goaltending situation is the worst it has been since Shanny took over. Dubas needs to get this right or it will probably be 7 consecutive first round exits.

With goaltending being the most critical position in a teams playoff success, I agree we haven't been in this bad a position for a long time and we're suppose to be considered Cup contenders.

At least with Freddy Andersen we knew we had a capable starting #1G that could play 65+ games a year as a #1, but left some questions come playoff time particularly in series clinching games.

Now even mentioning Mrazek the only "real NHL" goalie we have under contract strikes a nerve in some Leaf fans,

With so limited cap space to address the most important position, its really going to be interesting to see how the GM attempts to fix his own self inflicted mistakes and addresses the position. Without a real goalie never mind winning a round, we might be talking about scrambling to secure a playoff spot based on the current situation at present.

 

[ITM]

Simple answer to the question.... Because Murray will never play because he will be injured all the time...

So long story short... you don't want to take a chance on Gibson because he might not turn out good for us.
But you want to take a chance on Husso who might not turn out good for us?

Husso has proved nothing so far aside from the fact he's as good as Campbell... Taking a chance on him is the same as taking a chance on Gibson... At least with Gibson you know he's been an elite goalie and can maybe get back to that... With Husso you might just have another Campbell and more wasted years.

Simple answer: But you don't know that to a certainty anymore than you know Gibson will or for that matter that Gibson is a factor in the Leafs addressing their goaltending. One report has Murray, post-concussion, ready for camp. If that's true, you have two goalies in similar situations, meaning, they will have opportunities to correct their past three or so seasons. One has Cups - plural. The other was good for a couple of seasons. The one that has won Cups will be the cheaper option, but you're dismissing the better goalie (historically speaking) on the basis of health history...not performance history. And that brings us back to which one is the better gamble in a set of bad options. Neither of which I'm in favor for and certainly not at the expense of actually exchanging assets to do so.

There's one exception another member noted: Trading Mrazek for a retained Gibson. Yep: I'd roll the dice on him in that instance and only that instance. Which says more about Mrazek than it does Gibson.

So long story: Correct: It logically follows, if there's a likelihood that one option is no better than the other, the less expensive option between the two is the best choice in any asset management scenario. Husso will cost us a contract, Gibson will cost us assets. As noted, if the asset is Mrazek: Welcome to Toronto John Gibson. But that's the only scenario that's justified. And truth be told, it's garbage in, garbage out, and a roll of the dice all the same. So I would prefer the goalie that's upward trending, likely to cost only a contract and a contract that will be less than the one some of us are apparently determined to trade assets for.

Taking a chance on him (ie Husso) is the same as taking a chance on Gibson: If that's you're opinion then see above. You're affirming my claim. IF they're equivocal you take the least expensive option. I'm not sure you can say Gibson's been elite. His best season was 31-18-7. Season before was 25-16-9 (GAA 2.43/2.22; PCT: .926/.924). So that's from 2016-2018.

Campbell as a Maple Leaf is 51-14-9. In 2021-2022, warts and all he still pushed out a 31-9-6 record. And Husso was 25-7-6. And Gibson was 18-26-11. And the year before that and the year before that...

The fixation on Gibson is baffling.

He is not a guarantee. He is the most expensive option in the conversation. He has NOT been a workhorse number one goalie. His trend is downward. His contract has five more years on it. Etc, etc, etc...

 

[ITM]

Gibson has five 50+ game seasons under his belt, many with elite numbers, on a weak team and has maintained relatively strong brand value throughout his career. Only 28 years old.

Campbell has a few backup seasons and one 49 game season during which he he went sub .900 for several months and cratered to the point where he had to take a break behind a fairly good D corps. Sub .900 in the playoffs. He's 30 now.

I'm not a goalie expert - very difficult to separate goaltening from team D - but on the surface Gibson seems a safer option for a serious contender looking for stability through an extended cup window.

Still a gamble, but we have to take one now that we foolishly ran Freddy out of town.

Well it seems Freddie was Jack before Jack. Moreover, he rebounded in a system that was conducive to better numbers. That lends to my position that our depth is at least as important to address. It may improve whomever we acquire or retain.

Campbell was a back-up to Kari Lehtonen and Jonathan Quick. That speaks volumes. And yes he dipped. But he also peaked and he finished with a respectable record and a Leaf he has absolutely provided this club with wins albeit not that one more when it counts. Qualified by saying: Our offense lacking when it counts overshadows.

I'm not a goalie expert either whatever that entails. But I think equally you don't have to have professional accreditation to know the cheaper option between equal options is the better option. And the idea of paying for the largest (and likely longest) contract when cheaper options are available and at the cost of only a contract, is just nuts to me.

Thank God it's just all speculation at the moment.

 

[Mess]

As much as some fans don't like the option, a tandem of Mrazek and a 2-3m partner is an option. Risky but an option but my guess is that Leafs have seen enough of Mrazek.

What if the other plan is to use future assets picks/ prospects to dump the Mrazek contract, and then use future picks/prospects to acquire a new #1 goalie in trade?

Dubas has traded Leafs 1st round pick in 3 consecutive years (2019, 20 and 21) since taking over, and this might be looking like we're heading for another draft year where the future is mortgaged further to address this most vital position of goaltending.

Other GMs can see what Leaf fans see both with Mrazek and a desperate need to address the goaltending position by the Leafs GM and that could come at quite a steep cost.

If Leafs protect Matthew Knies and their 1st, we might be looking at a Mrazek and new backup tandem situation if Campbell is not back.

Perhaps Leafs are hoping Campbell takes a discount to return after he sees the market this summer and staying might be in his best interest even if he takes less than Mrazek, despite being the better goalie. Leafs goalie situation might be the same as last year 1A/1B tandem.

 

[Folignos Helmet]

1A options
Jack
Gibson
Varlamov
Kuemper
Husso
Fleury
Freddie
Lehner
Ullmark
Grubauer
Blackwood

1b/2
Kallgren
Mrazek
Holtby
Desmith
Raanta
Jones
Khudobin
Samsonov
Georgiev
Reimer
Hill

I think there are some long lists of guys who are free agents and might be available for trade because their team is either not ready needs some cap relief or doesn’t like the player anymore.

From above I would go all in on Gibson and get some like Jones or Hill as a cheap backup.

You see with the Oilers you can’t waste questionable tending on elite talent. I know all the back and forth about Gibsons numbers but I think he is the best shot at a legitimate horse to back.

 

[Tarmore]

It doesn't have anything to do with Mess, I don't know Mess, Mess might be the nicest, guy in the world, hell I don't even know that Mess is a guy.

It has to do with asking ridiculous questions that only take about 3.5 seconds to know the answer to.

Asking how we know Mrazek won't be #1 is ridiculous

LOL you are getting more and more 'out there' with your takes.

Not everyone has the same opinion as you.

Given Mrazek's performance so far with the Leafs it doesn't look like he will play as a #1, but it's not ridiculous to think he could.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

View attachment 559715


This gives 4.7 million to fill out 2 forward spots.
With Campbell at 5 And Mrazek.

I’m not suggesting this is likely. It seems like dubas wants to move on. From both goalies. But we could easily take on a 5 million goalie and keep mrazek if we absolutely had to.

If we got rid of both we would have 13 million to spend on 2 forwards and 2 goalies.

Leaf cap somehow is actually better than a lot

Only issue is the depth scoring will be horrible and Robertson certainly isn't a lock for the 2nd line.

The way I see it the leafs almost certainly will be a worse team on paper if no major trades happen. Its where they choose to be worse. Do they want to run a bare bones goalie tandem or destroy the depth scoring even further. I think Dubas values the depth scoring more so we will see a bare bones goalie tandem and instead some non league min/1 million dollar forwards in the bottom 6.

 

[Legion34]

Only issue is the depth scoring will be horrible and Robertson certainly isn't a lock for the 2nd line.

The way I see it the leafs almost certainly will be a worse team on paper if no major trades happen. Its where they choose to be worse. Do they want to run a bare bones goalie tandem or destroy the depth scoring even further. I think Dubas values the depth scoring more so we will see a bare bones goalie tandem and instead some non league min/1 million dollar forwards in the bottom 6.

Robertson could be on the 4th there. Cap friendly doesn’t give you space holders.

Worst case with realistic FA signings. They have 4.7 to find 2 forwards. That’s not too bad in a flat cap.

Best case they have 13.5 for 2 f and goaltending.

 

[mydnyte]

I know you don't like Mess but that is kinda silly. Mess has a valid point.

Mrazek has been a serviceable goalie during his carrier. If we consider that the medical staff has deemed him healthy and ready to go at the beginning of the season no reason to think he can't be a good goalie for the Leafs.

Personally I'm not sold on him being a #1, more of a 1B. Time will tell I guess.

agree there, he's too streaky, when he's 'on' he's great but when he's off, he's barely better than Hutch. ...and thats oogly

 

[mydnyte]

What if the other plan is to use future assets picks/ prospects to dump the Mrazek contract, and then use future picks/prospects to acquire a new #1 goalie in trade?

Dubas has traded Leafs 1st round pick in 3 consecutive years (2019, 20 and 21) since taking over, and this might be looking like we're heading for another draft year where the future is mortgaged further to address this most vital position of goaltending.

Other GMs can see what Leaf fans see both with Mrazek and a desperate need to address the goaltending position by the Leafs GM and that could come at quite a steep cost.

If Leafs protect Matthew Knies and their 1st, we might be looking at a Mrazek and new backup tandem situation if Campbell is not back.

Perhaps Leafs are hoping Campbell takes a discount to return after he sees the market this summer and staying might be in his best interest even if he takes less than Mrazek, despite being the better goalie. Leafs goalie situation might be the same as last year 1A/1B tandem.

what is the plan is to sign Comrie to a Campbell like deal (just under 2) and use him in tandem with Mrazek? Husso could be an option but he likely gets more $$ though, so, i dont think he's an option.
Personally, i'd like to snag one of the Capitals goalies Vanecek in particular, as he has great high danger stats, and we give up too many high danger shots, sucked in the payoffs last year though (in game 2 at least), but, Caps didnt help him much, it was an onslaught.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

LOL you are getting more and more 'out there' with your takes.

Not everyone has the same opinion as you.

Given Mrazek's performance so far with the Leafs it doesn't look like he will play as a #1, but it's not ridiculous to think he could.

yes it is because he hasn't even shown he can be healthy the last 2 years, if you can't be healthy you can't be a #1

 

[Felix the Cat Potvin]

I don't know if I like it, but I think we'll see a Petr Mrazek for Matt Murray deal, with salary retention. Murray has the experience to handle the market, Dubas connections, improved last year despite injuries, and has Stanley Cup pedigree. I think he'll be given every opportunity to be our number 1 next year. They simply can't bring back Mrazek. I could also see us being in on Desmith.

Murray + Desmith. I can see the logic... but yikes...

 

[Nylanderthal]

I dunno if anyone watched Rangers vs Lightning...

But one of the luxuries that the Rangers have in Shesterkin is that he's good enough to cover up for what is a pretty poor defensive team. Rather than trying to shut the Lightning down defensively, the Rangers went all out on offense and ask Shesterkin to cover for them which he did for Games 1, 2 and 3. When he came back down to Earth, they lost. There are only 3-4 goalies like that in the league. The fans here are too hung up on that.

The Leafs ARE NOT the Rangers. They are a very good defensive team, Shesterkin would obviously put this team over the top but he can't be traded for so you just need a guy who is good enough. When he had that hot November, we went 14-2. But the team also had a winning record in every month where they were getting sub .900 goaltending (which was every month outside of November).

If you're just looking for Good Enough, Gibson is in that category but he's got a cap hit of $6.4 million. That's a lot of money to be spending on Good Enough. If you're gonna spend $6.4 million, you'd like someone like Hellybyuck.

A Honda Civic is a fine car but you don't pay $80,000 for one.

This is the crux of the issue, posters like @Mess and others continually cry about other teams being built from the net out, but the reality is you have to get lucky with those guys, and when teams do they never trade them. Where teams bury themselves is by investing too many cap dollars in a guy who isn’t that elite difference maker and thus the rest of the line up is lacking.
Unless you have Vasi shesterkin Hellebyuck or maybe Demko & saros there’s almost no point in spending big in net. Utilize your deep front office and unearth two undervalued guys that can keep it on the rails

 

[Nylanderthal]

You do have a point…..


Looks like the guy has been made of glass all along

“All along”….. a thumb surgery last year and then….. a nine game stretch in 2018 and a 6 game stretch over a decade long career. Lol laughable

 

[TheRumble]

This is the crux of the issue, posters like @Mess and others continually cry about other teams being built from the net out, but the reality is you have to get lucky with those guys, and when teams do they never trade them. Where teams bury themselves is by investing too many cap dollars in a guy who isn’t that elite difference maker and thus the rest of the line up is lacking.
Unless you have Vasi shesterkin Hellebyuck or maybe Demko & saros there’s almost no point in spending big in net. Utilize your deep front office and unearth two undervalued guys that can keep it on the rails

Building a team from the net out is actually a very old idea in hockey and it has never produced a Cup champ. Several teams have gotten really close but these goalie centric teams always run into a well rounded team that ends up beating them.

2021 Habs, 2014 Rangers, 2003 Ducks, 2004 Flames, 1999 Sabres are examples of such teams that have made the Cup finals.

If an .910 caliber goalie can steal 1 or 2 games per series for you, that's good enough to win the Cup if you are a well rounded team. If he gets hot, even better, but Cup winning teams do not lean heavily on their goalies. Tampa just happens to have a goalie they can heavily lean on AND also are a well rounded team.

 

[Nylanderthal]

yes it is because he hasn't even shown he can be healthy the last 2 years, if you can't be healthy you can't be a #1

He had thumb surgery last year, completely unrelated to his groin issue this year, also not something that comes across as a potentially lingering issue. I mean Kadri has a thumb injury should teams be wary of him this offseason because of it?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

He had thumb surgery last year, completely unrelated to his groin issue this year, also not something that comes across as a potentially lingering issue. I mean Kadri has a thumb injury should teams be wary of him this offseason because of it?

No but Kadri isn't a goalie not the same

 

[Nylanderthal]

No but Kadri isn't a goalie not the same

Can you explain how a thumb injury on a goalies catching hand is vastly much worse and cause for more concern than on a skater who is desired because of his scoring ability which is directly related to hand/thumb dexterity?

 

[Mess]

Building a team from the net out is actually a very old idea in hockey and it has never produced a Cup champ. Several teams have gotten really close but these goalie centric teams always run into a well rounded team that ends up beating them.

2021 Habs, 2014 Rangers, 2003 Ducks, 2004 Flames, 1999 Sabres are examples of such teams that have made the Cup finals.

If an .910 caliber goalie can steal 1 or 2 games per series for you, that's good enough to win the Cup if you are a well rounded team. If he gets hot, even better, but Cup winning teams do not lean heavily on their goalies. Tampa just happens to have a goalie they can heavily lean on AND also are a well rounded team.

The 2021 Habs lost to Conn Smythe winning goalie Vasilevskiy, while having Carey Price to help the Habs blow by our Leafs.
2014 Rangers had "King" Henrik Lundqvist in net a seasonal Vezina finalist.
2004 Flames Miikka Kiprusoff
1999 Sabres has Dominik Hasek

These were all All-star goalies and Vezina and even got Hart trophy nominations.

PS. The whole arguement against the Leafs is they can't be a well rounded team because they have 3 X $11 mil forwards and cheap out on their goalies and haven't won a single playoff round in a Salary Cap era.

 

[ToneDog]

This is the crux of the issue, posters like @Mess and others continually cry about other teams being built from the net out, but the reality is you have to get lucky with those guys, and when teams do they never trade them. Where teams bury themselves is by investing too many cap dollars in a guy who isn’t that elite difference maker and thus the rest of the line up is lacking.
Unless you have Vasi shesterkin Hellebyuck or maybe Demko & saros there’s almost no point in spending big in net. Utilize your deep front office and unearth two undervalued guys that can keep it on the rails

Yup just let's not lay the blame on these undervalued guys when we only score 1 goal in a game #7.

 

[Tarmore]

yes it is because he hasn't even shown he can be healthy the last 2 years, if you can't be healthy you can't be a #1

OK so in your world no-one ever recovers from injury good to know. Too bad for Matthews and his wrist....

Note: Not saying I expect Mrázek's groin to be 100% for the year, but it's possible and I'm hopeful (if he remains a Leaf)

 

[Racer88]

“All along”….. a thumb surgery last year and then….. a nine game stretch in 2018 and a 6 game stretch over a decade long career. Lol laughable

I think you need to do better research on him before you spew your nonsense
30 seconds of research show that Mrazek was out this spring for 6 weeks due to another groin injury