Seravalli: If Capitals retain 50 percent on Dowd, he could be traded for a first round pick

FlappyGiraffe

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Just think about this in terms of proportionality compared to the Sean Monahan deal. Monahan returned a 1st and a 3d, is a UFA who can play 2C. Is Dowd so good that a team would pay a 1st for 2 years of a guy playing 4th line and the difference is a 3rd? I don't think so, but I guess you never know.
And it's only a third if the Jets win the cup. Otherwise Montreal only gets the 1st
 

hockeykicker

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Just think about this in terms of proportionality compared to the Sean Monahan deal. Monahan returned a 1st and a 3d, is a UFA who can play 2C. Is Dowd so good that a team would pay a 1st for 2 years of a guy playing 4th line and the difference is a 3rd? I don't think so, but I guess you never know.

and if you look at the stats over the past few years, monahan has barely scored more goals than dowd in the past few years where monahan gets pp time where dowd gets none. imagine if dowd got pp time
 

le_sean

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well lets break it down then

20-21
Dowd- 11 goals in 56 games
Monahan- 10 goals in 50 games

21-22
Dowd- 10 goals in 64 games
Monahan- 8 goals in 65 games

cant really do 22-23 since monahan was injured

23-24
Dowd- 7 goals in 38 games
Monahan- 13 goals in 49 games

so yes he is totally a more superior player especially since dowd gets zero powerplay time
lol ignoring assists is one way to completely twist the narrative.

Yeah he gets zero PP time because he’s not good offensively. Even the dogshit and offensively inept Capitals don’t think he should get more icetime.
 

Chainshot

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lol ignoring assists is one way to completely twist the narrative.

Yeah he gets zero PP time because he’s not good offensively. Even the dogshit and offensively inept Capitals don’t think he should get more icetime.

And yet year on year, Dowd is regularly one of the league leaders in SHTOI and also one of the Caps best at 5-on-5 positive goal differential. Yeah, he doesn't create as many goals as Monahan. He also doesn't give up as many as Monahan does and is responsible enough that his contributions are particularly strong at ES.

Yeah, Monahan's a better offensive player over, sure. Yet overall, he has given back more than he creates. *shrug* When teams are trying to win playoff matchups, they're going to try to find the sort of player Dowd has shown himself to be. If there is a retention for this playoff and next, that's going to push his value.
 
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pman25

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Best 4C in the league almost doesn’t do Nic Dowd justice. He’s averaging near 16 minutes a game. Do any other true 4Cs get close to that? Hes pretty much a 3C and you can run him on any line you want at 5v5. He gives you a lot of options.

A 1st for Dowd doesn’t look good on paper. It’s not an exciting acquisition. I get that. But when you’re holding a lead with 3 minutes to go in the playoffs, I’m sending Nic Dowd out there. Add in his bargain contract, I think the value is about right
 

le_sean

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And yet year on year, Dowd is regularly one of the league leaders in SHTOI and also one of the Caps best at 5-on-5 positive goal differential. Yeah, he doesn't create as many goals as Monahan. He also doesn't give up as many as Monahan does and is responsible enough that his contributions are particularly strong at ES.

Yeah, Monahan's a better offensive player over, sure. Yet overall, he has given back more than he creates. *shrug* When teams are trying to win playoff matchups, they're going to try to find the sort of player Dowd has shown himself to be. If there is a retention for this playoff and next, that's going to push his value.
And Monahan is so bad 5v5 he’s 2nd on the Habs in points. And his expected points 5v5 is higher than Dowd’s. But sure, he’s far worse.
 

Chainshot

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And Monahan is so bad 5v5 he’s 2nd on the Habs in points. And his expected points 5v5 is higher than Dowd’s. But sure, he’s far worse.

While Monahan is second in points, he's also been on for 9 more goals against at ES than he and his linemates have scored. Last year was 5 more against in just 25 games, the last year in Calgary was 14 more against than for. It's not a good ratio - he gives back everything he creates at ES and more.
 
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le_sean

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While Monahan is second in points, he's also been on for 9 more goals against at ES than he and his linemates have scored. Last year was 5 more against in just 25 games, the last year in Calgary was 14 more against than for. It's not a good ratio - he gives back everything he creates at ES and more.
Because he’s attached to the hip to guys like Anderson and Gallagher who are horrendous defensively.
 
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Chainshot

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Because he’s attached to the hip to guys like Anderson and Gallagher who are horrendous defensively.

He's been a net negative for most of the last five years. That includes being on a defense-first team in Calgary without Anderson and Gallagher but with Sutter making demands of how he play.
 
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JetsFan815

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While Monahan is second in points, he's also been on for 9 more goals against at ES than he and his linemates have scored. Last year was 5 more against in just 25 games, the last year in Calgary was 14 more against than for. It's not a good ratio - he gives back everything he creates at ES and more.

I hated the Monahan trade for the Jets and I hate to even say anything that even might slightly be construed as defending it but I think you are misunderstanding these stats.

"ES" numbers include Empty Net situations on most websites as NHL considers EN an "Even Strength situation", they certainly do on NaturalStatrick and NHL.com (from where I am assuming you are getting these numbers?). A better comparison is to look at 5v5 which doesn't include EN situations which penalize offensive players who are gonna be out there with the EN trying to get the tying goal, esp for bad teams like MTL who are trailing by 1-2 at the end of the 3rd more often than good teams. At 5v5 he is 26-25.

Not saying his good defensively or anything (which he isn't) but NHL polluting ES with EN data and thus ruining all analysis when people think it means "ES in terms of skaters" is a pet peeve of mine.
 

Chainshot

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Also like Gaustad, Dowd is starting in the d-zone at 5-on-5 over 80% of the time and still managing to be winning his matchups. That's some ridiculous deployment.
I hated the Monahan trade for the Jets and I hate to even say anything that even might slightly be construed as defending it but I think you are misunderstanding these stats.

"ES" numbers include Empty Net situations on most websites as NHL considers EN an "Even Strength situation", they certainly do on NaturalStatrick and NHL.com (from where I am assuming you are getting these numbers?). A better comparison is to look at 5v5 which doesn't include EN situations which penalize offensive players who are gonna be out there with the EN trying to get the tying goal, esp for bad teams like MTL who are trailing by 1-2 at the end of the 3rd more often than good teams. At 5v5 he is 26-25.

Not saying his good defensively or anything (which he isn't) but NHL polluting ES with EN data and thus ruining all analysis when people think it means "ES in terms of skaters" is a pet peeve of mine.

Point taken. Monahan is still a net negative 5-on-5 player four out of the last five years, and the one he won his matchup, it's a 1 goal positive differential.

I don't have an issue with Monahan. I do think people don't understand that Dowd wins his matchup and costs a lot less which will carry value.
 

Andrei79

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This is why I like the moderators on the Habs board. Not only are they not completely clueless about hockey, but they're even very insightful. And then there's this thread.
 
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BergyWho37

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This is just an awful take ..

I have hard time taking this guy serious anymore let’s throw muiltiple piles of sh.. at the wall in hopes that I sound smart once..
 

le_sean

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He's been a net negative for most of the last five years. That includes being on a defense-first team in Calgary without Anderson and Gallagher but with Sutter making demands of how he play.
Yeah because Johnny Gaudreau is such a stalwart defensively.

Just admit you simply look at JFresh’s cards and form an opinion on a player. You don’t consider linemates or actually watching them play. Because you’d realize that his “limitations” defensively are completely blown out of proportion.
 
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Fatass

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Also like Gaustad, Dowd is starting in the d-zone at 5-on-5 over 80% of the time and still managing to be winning his matchups. That's some ridiculous deployment.


Point taken. Monahan is still a net negative 5-on-5 player four out of the last five years, and the one he won his matchup, it's a 1 goal positive differential.

I don't have an issue with Monahan. I do think people don't understand that Dowd wins his matchup and costs a lot less which will carry value.
True. And Down has an extra year, no? A club would get him for two playoff runs.
 
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Chainshot

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Yeah because Johnny Gaudreau is such a stalwart defensively.

Just admit you simply look at JFresh’s cards and form an opinion on a player. You don’t consider linemates or actually watching them play. Because you’d realize that his “limitations” defensively are completely blown out of proportion.

Who?
 

The Great Weal

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If you think Nic Dowd is a better player than Sean Monahan please message me so I can have you over for poker night
 

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