Hypothetical If Arizona Pick Bedard would a Matthews/Bedard deal be possible?

[ACC1224]

Can they agree to an extension in principle prior to the date that he can sign/no trade kicks in? I’m assuming not, so the only leverage Dubas has left himself is if he thinks they can’t reach a deal is to trade him before the deadline this spring. Otherwise Matthews can ask for whatever he wants and has all the power.

Of course they can talk but obviously nothing would be binding.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Can they agree to an extension in principle prior to the date that he can sign/no trade kicks in? I’m assuming not, so the only leverage Dubas has left himself is if he thinks they can’t reach a deal is to trade him before the deadline this spring. Otherwise Matthews can ask for whatever he wants and has all the power.

I believe they can discuss intentions, but not contract specifics. Matthews isn't being traded, and there's no reason to think Matthews is trying to screw over the Leafs.

 

[Racer88]

I believe they can discuss intentions, but not contract specifics. Matthews isn't being traded, and there's no reason to think Matthews is trying to screw over the Leafs.

We hope he decides to be reasonable in his contract demands but we really don’t know for sure.

 

[Notsince67]

I don’t think either team does this. Arizona risks not resigning Matthews and I don’t think it’ll happen but we risk Bedard turns into Lafrenerie or Yakupov

Offer him the max and he will re-sign all right.

 

[Notsince67]

I'm not sure a one year rental of Matthews would land a 1st. overall pick in this draft?

It might if the very existence of a home boy superstar can revive the franchise. The carrot is the 8 year re-sign option made available.

 

[AvroArrow]

No, Arizona can't pay Matthews contract. They can't afford an arena, lockers, player bills, hotel bills, they're not paying Matthews 13M or whatever his next contract will be.

 

[HogTown06]

LOL at calling Bedard "a prospect".

Not trying to take anything from him but Matthews is a proven player. It would be an incredible risk to trade him even for someone as Bedard.

 

[therealkoho]

Can they agree to an extension in principle prior to the date that he can sign/no trade kicks in? I’m assuming not, so the only leverage Dubas has left himself is if he thinks they can’t reach a deal is to trade him before the deadline this spring. Otherwise Matthews can ask for whatever he wants and has all the power.

Dubas probably is already having coffee with Shanny the capologist and Austons agent and father. Spitballing ideas for ways Auston can remain a Leaf. If they don't like what they're hearing or the other side isn't engaged in any meaningful way. The answer is obvious and you make the move.

If the Leafs win it all that may change sentiments and not for the good because now 20% becomes a reality in which case I move him.

 

[Aashir]

I agree with the last paragraph. However some want to trade Matthews for him no matter what. I'm confident management won't do it.

It’s not like Matthews is Joe NHL. If he’s willing to commit, I’ll take him back and see what front office can surround him with and hope he carries us to a cup

My idea is more of a last resort

 

[therealkoho]

Not trying to take anything from him but Matthews is a proven player. It would be an incredible risk to trade him even for someone as Bedard.

Bedard is making the opposition look like bantam AAs in that tournament that's something very few players could do or have done.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not trying to take anything from him but Matthews is a proven player. It would be an incredible risk to trade him even for someone as Bedard.

Well, there's obviously risk on both sides.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

Hypothetically speaking - if the Leafs get bounced in the first round, I make this trade in a heartbeat. Bedard for Matthews straight up. Hell, I'd even throw in a 2nd or 3rd round pick + multiple mid-tier assets like Niemala/SDA/Robertson. And I'm still not sure if Arizona would go for it.

You could easily trade the rest of Rielly, Marner, Nylander, etc. for a ton of assets/picks and rebuild around Bedard with a fresh cap to contend again before Bedard's 20th birthday. This is an absolute no brainer - you'd have to blow up the team if they lose in the 1st round again, and there's no better reset than Bedard. There's always a chance that the guy busts, but barring significant injury I'd give it a 1% chance. You don't put up a 4 ppg ratio in the WJC and scoring repeated clutch goals as a 17 year old in this era. The #2 leading scorer of this tournament is 10 points behind Bedard....

Having said that, if the Leafs win a round or two this season (and I think they will finally get over the psychological hump), I would turn down the any permutation of the above and ride with the core, which I think has a good 3-5 year window if they can re-sign Matthews, Marner, and Nylander. I'm a firm believer that the talent is there in the team this year - it's mostly psychological/maturity and a bit of tinkering.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Bedard + what?

lol
Mathews plus what? and then what else. It would have to be a lot.

Bedard is not 18 yet, fcs.
He will be under team control for at least 7 years at UFA prices, at least for the first 3.
Mathews is under contract for only 1 more year - at 11.64 mil - and then he is a UFA. Ari would either lose him or have to give him a big raise from that.
Bedard is unproven but his potential is through the roof.

 

[ACC1224]

Hypothetically speaking - if the Leafs get bounced in the first round, I make this trade in a heartbeat. Bedard for Matthews straight up. Hell, I'd even throw in a 2nd or 3rd round pick + multiple mid-tier assets like Niemala/SDA/Robertson. And I'm still not sure if Arizona would go for it.

You could easily trade the rest of Rielly, Marner, Nylander, etc. for a ton of assets/picks and rebuild around Bedard with a fresh cap to contend again before Bedard's 20th birthday. This is an absolute no brainer - you'd have to blow up the team if they lose in the 1st round again, and there's no better reset than Bedard. There's always a chance that the guy busts, but barring significant injury I'd give it a 1% chance. You don't put up a 4 ppg ratio in the WJC and scoring repeated clutch goals as a 17 year old in this era. The #2 leading scorer of this tournament is 10 points behind Bedard....

Having said that, if the Leafs win a round or two this season (and I think they will finally get over the psychological hump), I would turn down the any permutation of the above and ride with the core, which I think has a good 3-5 year window if they can re-sign Matthews, Marner, and Nylander. I'm a firm believer that the talent is there in the team this year - it's mostly psychological/maturity and a bit of tinkering.

Safe to say the bolded won't happen nor should it.
Sure if they lose again it may be time to move 'a piece' but certainly not all of them.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

Safe to say the bolded won't happen nor should it.
Sure if they lose again it may be time to move 'a piece' but certainly not all of them.

On what basis though? I think if they lose in the 1st round this season, it's lights out for the core. I don't think it will happen / hope it won't happen, but you're facing into the following:

- a likely new GM
- a likely coaching change
- AM34 heading into a final year of UFA with his last season as a NMC (i.e. you have to move him before the draft) or re-sign him with a $4-6M premium + long-term under a stretched cap
- no all-star calibre or top-line prospects in the farm
- a 32 year old centre who has a NMC until his 34th birthday
- a rising star in Nylander on $7M who will be an UFA after next season and ask for $12M on the open market and likely get $10-11M
- a pass-first star in Marner who is on $11M and will be looking for $14-15M on the open market
- an offense heavy, defensively average defenceman on $7.5M a year until his 35th birthday for the remainder of this decade
- no proven playoff winning goaltender but $3.5-5M locked up in contracts with a middle-AHL goalie prospect who is frequently injured and soon to be in his mid-20s
- a solid #2 in Brodie who is making $5M and UFA after next season
- a stalwart defencemen who will also become a 41 year old dinosaur

If the team still hasn't won a single playoff round after two decades (and 5+ years with the core), I don't see how moving a piece or even two suffices given the above. You'd almost certainly have to blow the whole thing up. Win two rounds and fall short in the ECF and it's a completely different narrative (but you would still need to address a lot of the above.

 

[ACC1224]

On what basis though? I think if they lose in the 1st round this season, it's lights out for the core. I don't think it will happen / hope it won't happen, but you're facing into the following:

- a likely new GM
- a likely coaching change
- AM34 heading into a final year of UFA with his last season as a NMC (i.e. you have to move him before the draft) or re-sign him with a $4-6M premium + long-term under a stretched cap
- no all-star calibre or top-line prospects in the farm
- a 32 year old centre who has a NMC until his 34th birthday
- a rising star in Nylander on $7M who will be an UFA after next season and ask for $12M on the open market and likely get $10-11M
- a pass-first star in Marner who is on $11M and will be looking for $14-15M on the open market
- an offense heavy, defensively average defenceman on $7.5M a year until his 35th birthday for the remainder of this decade
- no proven playoff winning goaltender but $3.5-5M locked up in contracts with a middle-AHL goalie prospect who is frequently injured and soon to be in his mid-20s
- a solid #2 in Brodie who is making $5M and UFA after next season
- a stalwart defencemen who will also become a 41 year old dinosaur

If the team still hasn't won a single playoff round after two decades (and 5+ years with the core), I don't see how moving a piece or even two suffices given the above. You'd almost certainly have to blow the whole thing up. Win two rounds and fall short in the ECF and it's a completely different narrative (but you would still need to address a lot of the above.

On the basis that it's never happened in the history of the league.

You honestly believe that another loss will mean the end for Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Rielly, the goalies, Brodie and Giordano?

 

[WilliamInLondon]

On the basis that it's never happened in the history of the league.

You honestly believe that another loss will mean the end for Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Rielly, the goalies, Brodie and Giordano?

Yeah, I do really believe that another 1st round loss will lead to wholesale changes starting with the summer offseason and over the course of the next 12 months.

History and precedence doesn't mean much given how pretty unprecedented the Leafs roster is constructed - it is i) extremely top heavy...your top 7 players are making a combined $59 million next season; and ii) the salary cap is not forecasted to increase by more than 3-5% if macroeconomic indicators hold firm these next 6-12 months. No team in history in the salary cap era has been constructed in this way. If it doesn't work this season, something has to give....

You can barely make the cap work over the next season or two if a few things work out (i.e. Muzzin LTIR, entry-level rookies come in to replace Kerfoot, etc.), but you certainly can't justify doing so if this team doesn't get out of the 1st round. Throw in the fact that 2 out of your top 3 stars will be 1 season away from UFA and the 3rd one 2 seasons away, you'd want to at least maximize your returns to replenish your assets and kickstart a full rebuild.

Outcomes:
- Matthews and Nylander 1 season away from UFA (they may choose to sign elsewhere)
- Tavares 2 years left going into his 33rd year - up to him whether he'd waive his NMC for a contender
- Rielly - most likely to stay as veteran captain
- Samsonov/Murray - off-season or 2023-2024 TDL
- Giordano - the guy is going to be 40 years old next season lol; he may also want to go to an SC contender by next TDL
- Brodie - 1 season away and would fetch good returns.

I'm hoping it doesn't happen - like I said, I think they get over the hump in the playoffs this year. But if they don't, I think it'll be a lot more than moving a single piece and rolling the dice again next season given all of the factors above.

 

[Menzinger]

Why is it literally impossible for Matthews to refuse to sign an extension hold out for his final year and walk for free. This happens all the time in the NHL

It doesn't tend to happen to star caliber players after their first rfa deal sthough.

Happens quite infrequently in fact. Tavares was one of the few, who ironically came to Toronto. Aside from him you'd have to head back to around 2012 when Suters and Praise both left for the Wild.

 

[hfman]

Arizona is going to need some star power for their new building .

​

exaaaaaaactly

they didnt put up Arizona in a small temporary arena for nothing. Any other team just loses their franchise and then it goes up for bids to another city. So why the obsession with keeping the Coyotes around? Hmmmm, well Matthews' deal is up in a year and they just put Arizona in a temporary 'bridge' arena until "further notice"... not to mention Arizona is his hometown so yeah.....put 2 and 2 together folks....they have their plan in place and it's in full swing right now

 

[Gabriel426]

Got a better question, if Leafs missed the playoffs and ended up drafting Bedard and AM refuses to sign or wants too much. Would you trade AM this summer for a package or risk him walking for nothing the following summer while having AM, JT, MM, Willie and Bedard as your top 6?

exaaaaaaactly

they didnt put up Arizona in a small temporary arena for nothing. Any other team just loses their franchise and then it goes up for bids to another city. So why the obsession with keeping the Coyotes around? Hmmmm, well Matthews' deal is up in a year and they just put Arizona in a temporary 'bridge' arena until "further notice"... not to mention Arizona is his hometown so yeah.....put 2 and 2 together folks....they have their plan in place and it's in full swing right now

Or the fact that Yokes can’t get a decent price and if Yokes is sold at their current discount price, it will lower the sale of the Penns and Sens.

 

[hfman]

Not saying it's gonna happen but anyone who thinks it's can't happen is out of their mind

If the Yotes can't sell tickets now then who the heck is investing in another full-sized arena for a team that can't sell tickets? Is a new arena all of a sudden going to sell the tickets? Of course not. But a bonafide superstar WILL. Just ask Gretzky and Crosby.

The road is perfectly paved for it to happen:


1. Matthews deal is approaching expiry
2. Arizona has been placed in a temporary building at this exact same time
3. Matthews hometown is Arizona

Again, not saying this will happen but no one can deny the timing of all of this. Anyone who denies that it's a good possibility is crazy

 

[WilliamInLondon]

Not saying it's gonna happen but anyone who thinks it's can't happen is out of their mind

If the Yotes can't sell tickets now then who the heck is investing in another full-sized arena for a team that can't sell tickets? Is a new arena all of a sudden going to sell the tickets? Of course not. But a bonafide superstar WILL. Just ask Gretzky and Crosby.

The road is perfectly paved for it to happen:


1. Matthews deal is approaching expiry
2. Arizona has been placed in a temporary building at this exact same time
3. Matthews hometown is Arizona

Again, not saying this will happen but no one can deny the timing of all of this. Anyone who denies that it's a good possibility is crazy

Agree. It's not likely, but it's not as far-fetched as one may think. The US Southwest is a rapidly growing hockey hotbed and we've seen how successful teams like Vegas can build a rapid fanbase pretty quickly. Hometown kid with mixed heritage and a tremendous talent - he would make a ton in endorsements and be a celebrity beyond just hockey.

Win a few rounds, and I think he re-signs this summer without much discussion. Lose in the 1st round again, and I think it's safe to assume that he'd think beyond just winning in hockey and at least think about going to Arizona. If the latter happens, I offer him a max budget, 8 year extension in the offseason; if he turns it down, I would trade him before the season starts for a boatload rather than go for one last Hail Mary of playoff success and hope he re-ups with you as a UFA when he could go anywhere....

 

[rocketman588]

Maybe getting AM would actually fill their 5000 seat arena lots of open seats on occasion despite it being "sold out"

 

[WilliamInLondon]

Maybe getting AM would actually fill their 5000 seat arena lots of open seats on occasion despite it being "sold out"

in your opinion, how much of this is driven by the A) (lack of) interest in hockey within the Arizona market versus B) fielding an absolutely abysmal team with no success or star power for the past decade?

 

[ACC1224]

Agree. It's not likely, but it's not as far-fetched as one may think. The US Southwest is a rapidly growing hockey hotbed and we've seen how successful teams like Vegas can build a rapid fanbase pretty quickly. Hometown kid with mixed heritage and a tremendous talent - he would make a ton in endorsements and be a celebrity beyond just hockey.

Win a few rounds, and I think he re-signs this summer without much discussion. Lose in the 1st round again, and I think it's safe to assume that he'd think beyond just winning in hockey and at least think about going to Arizona. If the latter happens, I offer him a max budget, 8 year extension in the offseason; if he turns it down, I would trade him before the season starts for a boatload rather than go for one last Hail Mary of playoff success and hope he re-ups with you as a UFA when he could go anywhere....

It's absolutely far fetched. Why would Matthews go along with this? It can't be money.