Hypothetical - does McDavid win the Conn Smythe even if Oilers lose the cup? Assuming he has an above average finals

[WetcoastOrca]

McDavid has Hyman, Draisaitl, Bouchard, and RNH carrying the load with him. It's hilariously wrong to paint him as some messiah dragging an offensively challenged team. He has a great supporting cast, at least offensively.

The problem, as always been obvious, is the defense and goaltending.

One goal scored by the Oilers in 2 games. Goaltending has been fine. Offense has been awful including the PP.

 

[HolyGhost]

Oilers dominated G1 and got Goalued, come on be realistic. Series could easily be 1-1.
I expect a 2-2 series coming into G5.

Oilers are a broken bunch. This is the SCF--the facts are the Oilers are down 2-0 and they looked broken in the third

The myth that Edmonton has no supporting cast needs to die. It hasn't been true for the last couple of years at least. Goaltending is still a problem but there's been a couple of games these playoffs were Skinner also stole a couple of games.

As for the Conn Smythe I see your point, but in a scenario where Barkov is matching up against McDavid and shuts him down and Florida wins the cup, the Smythe should be his.



Sitting back and playing defense doesn't equal playing good defense. I agree they looked quite horrible defending that lead for the first half of the game. Likely nerves was a factor.

1 goal in 2 games--where is the supporting cast you talk of?

 

[Elvs]

Goaltending we can agree on but I don't think you are seeing the big picture.

I'm not saying the other guys arnt coming togther to form an incredibly potent PP unit or arnt meshing well playing with him, I'm just pointing out the difference in depth:

The Oilers 5v5 with McDavid:
Goals for/60: 3.54
Goals against:/60: 2.16

5v5 the rest of the Oilers team not playing with McDavid:
Goals for/60: 1.70
Goals against:/60: 2.71

You at least expect those bottom numbers to be a little closer to even. Take it a little further and take out both McDavid and Drai from the mix:

McDavid/Drai 5v5:
TOI: 100:58
Goals for/60: 4.22
Goals against:/60: 1.74

McDavid without Drai:
TOI: 255:12
Goals for/60: 3.28
Goals against:/60: 2.33

Drai without McDavid:
TOI: 222.22
Goals for/60: 2.94
Goals against:/60: 3.23

5v5 the rest of the Oilers team not playing with McDavid or Draisaitl:
TOI: 414:22
Goals for/60: 1.03
Goals against:/60: 2.43

Almost a 1-2.5 goals for/against ratio.....

The problem with your calculations is that McDavid and Draisaitl are McDavid and Draisaitl. They are gonna run away with those goal ratios no matter who their teammates are. The better and simpler way to compare teams depth is simply to look at the team's depth charts. And yes, the Florida Panthers are deeper than the Oilers, but the Oilers is still among the deeper teams in the league nowadays. They could swap McDavid with Barkov and still be one of the better if not best teams in the league, imo.

 

[Elvs]

1 goal in 2 games--where is the supporting cast you talk of?

Yeah, a two game sample size. Any team can hit a slump. Dallas did in the last two games of the conference finals and are widely considered to be one of the deepest teams in the league.

How many teams in the league has a #3 and #4 forward better than Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins? How many teams in the league has a #5 and #6 forward better than Henrique (when healthy) and Kane? The answer is a few teams but not overly many.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Oilers are a broken bunch. This is the SCF--the facts are the Oilers are down 2-0 and they looked broken in the third




1 goal in 2 games--where is the supporting cast you talk of?

We will see how valid your 2 game sample size evaluation is. 97&29 break thru in G3
and you look like a know nothing real quickly.

 

[Felidae]

The Conn Smythe is for overall playoffs, not just the finals.

McDavid finishing with 35+ points is something done only by 3 players outside of Lemieux and Gretzky. 2 of those didn't win the Smythe, but that's cause one was Gretzky's teammate and the other was in a dynasty with some of the greatest players of all time (NYI). The one that did win was Malkin, and McDavid's situation is closer to his than the other 2.

McDavid has an opportunity to accomplish a historic feat. If he finishes with 38 or more points, that's prime Gretzky territory. As good as Barkov and Bobrovsky are, looking at even just the Conn Smythe history the past few decades, their runs (so far) wouldnt really stand out.

 

[daver]

The precedent for a forward winning is Reggie Leach. I don't see McDavid as having such a dominant run coming into the finals that he was in that conversation. Many had Draisaitl as having been better through three rounds.

Leach was dominating not just in goals but also points. Of course Clarke was a dominant 2-way player for Philly but Draisaitl was seen as being the better 2-way player between him and McDavid through three rounds.

 

[Zbynek]

The Conn Smythe is for overall playoffs, not just the finals.

McDavid finishing with 35+ points is something done only by 3 players outside of Lemieux and Gretzky. 2 of those didn't win the Smythe, but that's cause one was Gretzky's teammate and the other was in a dynasty with some of the greatest players of all time (NYI). The one that did win was Malkin, and McDavid's situation is closer to his than the other 2.

McDavid has an opportunity to accomplish a historic feat. If he finishes with 38 or more points, that's prime Gretzky territory. As good as Barkov and Bobrovsky are, looking at even just the Conn Smythe history the past few decades, their runs (so far) wouldnt really stand out.

McDavid's situation is not close to Malkin's unless he raises Lord Stanley.

 

[Ryuji Yamazaki]

Nope.

Not after his disappearing act in the finals.

 

[RMF5630]

We're down to 2 teams - so 50/50 chance Oilers win the cup. If they do - I think McDavid is the current Conn Smythe favorite (Bouchard and Drai not far behind, but I do think McDavid is the current clear #1). What if Florida wins though, does McDavid still win the Smythe in a losing cause?

McDavid is up to 31 points. Barkov, who gets floated a lot for Florida - has 17. Tkachuk with 19. Really great players and very strong team obviously, but in terms of individual contributors I don't think anyone stands out as much as the Oilers trio.

Assuming McDavid doesn't completely self-implode and have a horrible final - so let's say he's at least average/above average - does he win the Smythe even if Florida wins the cup?

At first I was just going to make this a simple yes/no poll, but I thought I'd add in consideration for his actual performance in finals, to see if people think he'd win even if he's horrible in the finals. In my opinion - McDavid will win the Conn Smythe win or lose cup, but that's assuming he's at least average in finals. If he completely self-implodes and has a horrible final, then no, Florida player wins.

If FLA wins, Bob gets the Conn Smythe. Really a no brainer he has played outstanding, plus he is the new media darling.

 

[Amorgus]

A flying elbow of his own might do it

 

[MCR74]

If FLA wins, Bob gets the Conn Smythe. Really a no brainer he has played outstanding, plus he is the new media darling.

Bob should then give it to Barkov, in tribute to Draisaitl.

 

[Qurpiz]

This keeps on and it's Bobrovski AINEC

"BOBROVSKI YOU SOLVED THE CASE!"

 

[Video Nasty]

Nope.

Not after his disappearing act in the finals.

You have to watch the games to make that call. Yes, he only has a lone assist this far and he certainly needs to be better, but he’s been very noticeable on the ice. Their stellar goaltending has kept him from having a few goals and a few more assists. Fantastic effort by Bob.

 

[Ryuji Yamazaki]

You have to watch the games to make that call. Yes, he only has a lone assist this far and he certainly needs to be better, but he’s been very noticeable on the ice. Their stellar goaltending has kept him from having a few goals and a few more assists. Fantastic effort by Bob.

Yeah I haven’t watched either of the games my team has played in the finals.

 

[ManofSteel55]

If Bobrovsky continues to pitch 0's and 1's in the finals, I think the Conn Smythe has to go to him, doesn't it?

 

[T REX]

The @34 seal of approval. I’ve noticed that when you start getting emotional, it goes disastrously wrong for you, ala @SeanMoneyHands.

Oilers will tie this up tonight.

did not age well

 

[Video Nasty]

did not age well

Yet here I am, not hiding in the shadows like most who make a boatload of wrong predictions and only slink out of the shadows when they think they smell blood. 34 has been laughably wrong countless times, but you’re calling me out? Haha.

 

[HugginThePost]

You have to watch the games to make that call. Yes, he only has a lone assist this far and he certainly needs to be better, but he’s been very noticeable on the ice. Their stellar goaltending has kept him from having a few goals and a few more assists. Fantastic effort by Bob.

Yeah, how many even strength points in the last 4-5 games?

They've been relying on the PP for a while now. Now that it's dried up, everyone has stopped putting up numbers.

I suppose it comes with playing a very, very, structured team.

 

[T REX]

Yet here I am, not hiding in the shadows like most who make a boatload of wrong predictions and only slink out of the shadows when they think they smell blood. 34 has been laughably wrong countless times, but you’re calling me out? Haha.

I really try to avoid Leaf fans as much as possible to avoid racking up infarctions(correct spelling as well as the other one) LOL

 

[Video Nasty]

I really try to avoid Leaf fans as much as possible to avoid racking up infarctions(correct spelling as well as the other one) LOL

 

[McVespa99]

Did not know that, thanks.

So yeah, basically you need to be a goalie who dragged teams through to an “almost” Cup to have any chance

exactly

 

[keglu]

McDavid or Bob are the most obvious choices. Game 1 was straight up stolen by goaltending.

Oddly enough, depth players and goaltending are playing the biggest role in peoples perceptions.

Take a guy like Barkov who many are mentioning and compare him to McDavid.



McDavid:

All situations: 32 points in 20 games
5v5 points: 15 points in 20 games:
(these both lead all players)

5v5:
Goals for/60: 3.54
Goals against:/60: 2.16
Differential % with REL: 62.11 (+23.56)

The rest of the Oilers team not playing with McDavid:
Goals for/60: 1.70
Goals against:/60: 2.71
Differential %: 38.55

Oilers Goaltending: 89.13



Barkov:

All situations: 19 points in 19 games
5v5 points: 8 points in 19 games:

5v5:
Goals for/60: 2.36
Goals against:/60: 1.77
Differential with REL: 57.13 (-2.66)

The rest of the Panthers team not playing with Barkov:
Goals for/60: 2.29
Goals against:/60: 1.54
Differential: 59.79

Panthers Goaltending: 91.43


Not saying Barkov isnt having a great playoffs but McDavid is literally carrying a sad sack team as far as he can here. Barkov is a great player getting great support and great goaltending and McDavid is the best player in the playoffs getting neither.

Now do Bouchard vs McDavid, From what i checked Oilers look beter at 5v5 with Bouchard and w/o McDavid than in opposite situation. Also Bouchard raw production is more impressive considering he is D. So why McDavid over Bouchard?

 

[wetcoast]

You have to watch the games to make that call. Yes, he only has a lone assist this far and he certainly needs to be better, but he’s been very noticeable on the ice. Their stellar goaltending has kept him from having a few goals and a few more assists. Fantastic effort by Bob.

Not to mention the number of goalposts and missed chances.

People saying that McDavid hasn't been one of the better positions players out there simply aren't watching.

 

[BB88]

Its been 2 games and don't give me this BS. G1 clearly was stolen by Bob. You play the first 2 games 100 times Oilers win that game 80 times at least. Edmonton is far from dead.

What were you thinking in 2011 when Boston came back 0-2 and Horton was layed out early in G3?

So I take it you watched game 6 against Dallas and saw Oilers get dominated….
I said after the game not once did it look like Dallas was in real controll of that game, they looked defeated even while ”dominating” the shot clock

I haven’t said Oilers are dead