TSN: How the coronavirus could impact the NHL’s bottom line UPD: NHL Season suspended MOD Warning post139

[KINGS17]

Well, I guess my cousin who lives in Montreal has it / had it and is now recovering from a bone marrow extraction. Apparently, he had some virus previously which he built up antibodies that could help with Covid19.

Glad to hear your cousin is recovering. I know it's an old saying, but "Whatever doesn't kill you only makes you stronger." Not sure that was meant for some of us that are getting on in years though.

 

[HeadInjury]

I've heard it said many times that New York state is doing a much better job of testing than California. Here's something to consider.

The current figures:

New York: 75,795 positive cases and 1,550 deaths.

California: 7,421 positive cases and 146 deaths.

So New York has almost exactly 10 times the cases and ten times the deaths.

With the death ratios being very similar, doesn't this suggest that there are just a lot less cases here? Why? More flights from China to the US land in California than anywhere. We certainly get our far share of visitors from Europe, particularly this time of the year. One would think that if things were going to get as bad here as New York, we would be further along our way by now. This may just be wishful thinking, but perhaps the great determiners are population density and social distancing. Our population is obviously more spread out than metro New York. Maybe we have been doing a better job at social distancing that New York has.

I've heard that CA is bracing for an explosion of cases. But now that we are days from finishing our second week of the stay at home order, if that explosion is coming, we should see it very soon. Because the further down the road we go, the greater impact the stay at home order should have to slow the spread.

 

[KINGS17]

I've heard it said many times that New York state is doing a much better job of testing than California. Here's something to consider.

The current figures:

New York: 75,795 positive cases and 1,550 deaths.

California: 7,421 positive cases and 146 deaths.

So New York has almost exactly 10 times the cases and ten times the deaths.

With the death ratios being very similar, doesn't this suggest that there are just a lot less cases here? Why? More flights from China to the US land in California than anywhere. We certainly get our far share of visitors from Europe, particularly this time of the year. One would think that if things were going to get as bad here as New York, we would be further along our way by now. This may just be wishful thinking, but perhaps the great determiners are population density and social distancing. Our population is obviously more spread out than metro New York. Maybe we have been doing a better job at social distancing that New York has.

I've heard that CA is bracing for an explosion of cases. But now that we are days from finishing our second week of the stay at home order, if that explosion is coming, we should see it very soon. Because the further down the road we go, the greater impact the stay at home order should have to slow the spread.

I don't think we are going to see as many cases and deaths as New York for several reasons:

1. Population density of New York City increased the "community spread" by an enormous amount (I would guess anywhere between 10 to 20 times). We don't ride subways. We go to work in our personal bubbles (vehicles).

2. The New York area has several airports which are points of arrival for flights from western Europe (places like Italy, Spain, France, etc.). The travel ban was late in including flights from Europe, but may have only been slightly late when it comes to China.

3. In California a large percentage of the population lives in a single family home. In New York the average citizen is dwelling in an apartment that is probably around 700-800 square feet. Too many sardines packed into the can. One bad sardine in the bunch spoils the whole can.

Cuomo can say this isn't a New York City problem all he wants, but the fact is the number of cases indicates it is a population density problem.

 

[Lt Dan]

I don't think we are going to see as many cases and deaths as New York for several reasons:

1. Population density of New York City increased the "community spread" by an enormous amount (I would guess anywhere between 10 to 20 times). We don't ride subways. We go to work in our personal bubbles (vehicles).

2. The New York area has several airports which are points of arrival for flights from western Europe (places like Italy, Spain, France, etc.). The travel ban was late in including flights from Europe, but may have only been slightly late when it comes to China.

3. In California a large percentage of the population lives in a single family home. In New York the average citizen is dwelling in an apartment that is probably around 700-800 square feet. Too many sardines packed into the can. One bad sardine in the bunch spoils the whole can.

Cuomo can say this isn't a New York City problem all he wants, but the fact is the number of cases indicates it is a population density problem.

Indeed. What ok ch is also why North NJ has been hit so hard

I am sure the subway spread this like wildfire

 

[HeadInjury]

I think you'll have to use the tab to select California in the green bar on this webpage, but the University of Washington's model suggests about 5,000 Californians will die through August 4.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

They are also projecting no shortage of beds/ICUs and only a 1,500 shortage in ventilators needed.

 

[Legionnaire]

Glad to hear your cousin is recovering. I know it's an old saying, but "Whatever doesn't kill you only makes you stronger." Not sure that was meant for some of us that are getting on in years though.

Funny that you mention that euphemism. Last week a friend on FB was totally freaking - begging for any light and how to make sense of all of this

The only reply he liked was mine. "Whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger."

My cousin tested negative this last time and is only in recovery for the bone marrow. Thanks for the well wishes.

 

[HeadInjury]

At Cuomo's press conference today:

Yesterday, there were 1,297 new hospitalizations and 1,167 discharges.

There does not appear to be a spiking of ICU/ventilations.

ICU admissions the last 4 days: 283, 315, 355 and 312 yesterday.

New intubations: 165, 303, 295 and 291 yesterday.

Here's the ugly statistic. Cuomo says that only 20% of patients intubated survive. I had not heard that said anywhere. So even if we are able to continue to get everyone intubated, the vast majority will still die.

 

[HeadInjury]

The truth about what really happened in China is beginning to leak out:

China hid extent of coronavirus outbreak, US intelligence reportedly says

Reports Show China Hasn’t Contained the Coronavirus Yet | National Review

 

[kingsholygrail]

Shocking. lol

 

[HeadInjury]

This is the research paper from scientists at South China University of Technology, released in early February that people are starting to talk about. It speculates that the virus may have accidentally been released from a medical lab near the wet market in question, that was conducting research on the bats from which COVID-19 is thought to have originated. This is not definitive and is not suggesting it was military or bio weapon related. It is describing a theory that there was a purely accidental release of the virus.

https://img-prod.tgcom24.mediaset.i...0192-5eb8307f-017c-4075-a697-348628da0204.pdf

If you read this, note that there is no evidence of transmission provided to support the theory. At a minimum, assuming the facts asserted are true, it's at least a remarkable coincidence that experiments were being conducted on the bat in question so close to the wet market.

 

[ricardfromage]

Hope this is the right place to put this but I want to respond to all of the well-wishers that I have gotten regarding yesterdays HUGE earthquake up here in Idaho. I like about 7 hours away from the epicenter as the crow flies and it rolled for awhile here. Made me all homesick for my days back in Cali. I was there for all 4 of the big quakes and this one yesterday was a pretty solid tumbler. I live in the flat little space about 1/3rd of the way up the mountain (less or more) and we felt it pretty good.

On the Chinese Corona Virus I live in an area that boasts having over 4 thousand people in our county and we already have 4 confirmed cases. I know it sounds lame as a comparable but we live in an everybody pitches in for each other community up here so each illness is felt pretty hard. I was in hospital with severe cases of kidney disease 3 times over a few years and my neighbors and townsfolk were all very concerned. A few of them who I didn't really even know made the long long drive down to Couer D Alene to visit me. When there are less of us all piled up on top of each other we all seem to truly care for one another. I think that is true of most people regardless of their living situations but it is significantly harder to be so magnanimous n crowded urban areas. Still, I know that my fellow Kings fans and hockey fans in general are doing everything possible to care for each other. Meh, I am rambling again but have had the time to do so with all of hockey shut down. My job has been put on hold (WHL work) and I can't wait for it to start up again. Hope the draft works as well this year as it has the past two for us. Stay Classy Kings fans.

 

[HeadInjury]

Over 1,000 deaths in US today and the day isn't over yet. Half in NY.

 

[HeadInjury]

This is really tragic. A WSJ article demonstrating that deaths from COVID-19 in Italy are much higher than being reported because they do not count deaths as being COVID-19 related unless the person was tested before they died and many were not. The article gives all sorts of examples. Basically saying deaths might be more than twice what is being reported.

Italy’s Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported

"Another problem is that the number of virus carriers is also vastly undercounted. Italy has reported about 111,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus, but testing is mostly limited to those who show symptoms. Many virus carriers with no symptoms aren’t tested. Officials and health experts estimate the true number of infected people at anywhere from hundreds of thousands to six million."

Because the healthcare system is so overwhelmed there, there are increased non-COVID-19 deaths too due to the inability to provide appropriate care.

“We have a problem with the elderly and other sick people like cancer patients who are dying at home,” says Dr. Colombi. “The ambulance won’t come if you are 94 years old and there are 50 other people waiting.”

"An added problem is that 20% of Bergamo’s family doctors have been infected—and those still working only consult with patients over the phone. The local health service has responded to the high infection rate among family doctors by instituting teams of three to four doctors that make house calls in full protective gear. But with only eight teams for all of Bergamo, and each team able to make only about eight visits a day, many people don’t receive care."

 

[HeadInjury]

Here's an intelligent (and dry) discussion of hydroxychloroquine for use in COVID-19 patients, as well as the impact of a potential shortage of it for arthritis and lupus patients.

 

[HeadInjury]

Jeez. France has 509 deaths yesterday. 1,355 today.

Edit: Worldometers indicates that 884 of these deaths were from nursing homes over a period of several weeks, not today.

 

[KINGS17]

One thing we know for sure the Communist Chinese government lied and continues to lie about the number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 in China. Do they really expect us to believe that a virus which made its way to an area of Italy where many Chinese work in the garment industry and to the Seattle area somehow never made it outside of the Hubei province in China. China is insulting the intelligence of the entire world.

Meanwhile, there are fears in China of a second outbreak, or could it be the first one was truly never over?

China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says

China defends its coronavirus data after report says US intelligence doubted numbers

Fearing A Second Coronavirus Outbreak, China Gets Tougher On Foreign Travelers

I found this little nugget in the last article interesting:

China’s Supreme Court issued new rules this week elaborating on what those violations are, and what people violating them will be charged. In short, bring in COVID-19 and you face criminal charges in China.

I believe the Yiddish term for this is "chutzpah".

 

[HeadInjury]

I read that one possible explanation for the under reporting of deaths in China is that local bureaucrats were not reporting the true numbers because they feared they would be blamed for them. One of the unintended consequences of living in a totalitarian state.

 

[Master Yoda]

I don't live in California but with California announcing school closures until the end of the school year, I'm wondering what the plan is?
Let's say we get to a point where it is deemed under control, then what?
There's really no realistic way to stop another outbreak.
And waiting months or years until a vaccine is developed is not an option.

I've mentioned it before, as well as some other here, that ultimately people will have to get back to work and the economy will have to restart.
While there was definitely a need to "flatten the curve", when the health care industry is more prepared to handle the increase, lockdowns orders will need to start being lifted.

Here is a good opinion piece:
When to End the Coronavirus Lockdown? Soon

And she makes a real good point about this creating a whole new slew of mental health problems.
The opioid crises is a serious problem now, and some of that stems from lost manufacturing and mining jobs in the rust belt.
This could become an even bigger problem when millions lose jobs and businesses go bankrupt.

 

[Master Yoda]

Also interested to see what happens in Sweden, who is only loosely applying the social distancing guidelines and appear to be sort of letting people get sick and trying to get herd immunity.

The problem with this would be the same problems other countries are fearing which is if too many people get sick at the same time, the healthcare system couldn't handle it.

 

[Rumpelstiltskin]

Might as well use the old Chinese proverb, "May you live in interesting times:"

San Pedro engineer suspected of intentionally derailing train near USNS Mercy – Daily Breeze

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Also interested to see what happens in Sweden, who is only loosely applying the social distancing guidelines and appear to be sort of letting people get sick and trying to get herd immunity.

The problem with this would be the same problems other countries are fearing which is if too many people get sick at the same time, the healthcare system couldn't handle it.

You know I thought about that this AM too but Sweden's "loosely applying guidelines" is very similar to how we're acting under "Stay at home order." AKA large gatherings are closed and people are encouraged to work from home, but people are going out (responsibly) as relatively normal.

 

[Fishhead]

Any mental health issues caused by economic problems pales in comparison to the loss of life if things just went back to normal. Look what's happening in Northern Italy, where they ignored the order to stay in, then multiply that by hundreds of time. People are a lot softer in general now anyways, we don't roll with the punches like we used to. While there have been a lot of great movements that promote equality and fairness, that's the downside to them. When real adversity hits - not something like someone calling you the wrong gender or looking at you funny because you are wearing a headdress - people don't know how to deal with it.

If current humans were cavemen, we never would have made it as a species.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Any mental health issues caused by economic problems pales in comparison to the loss of life if things just went back to normal. Look what's happening in Northern Italy, where they ignored the order to stay in, then multiply that by hundreds of time. People are a lot softer in general now anyways, we don't roll with the punches like we used to. While there have been a lot of great movements that promote equality and fairness, that's the downside to them. When real adversity hits - not something like someone calling you the wrong gender or looking at you funny because you are wearing a headdress - people don't know how to deal with it.

If current humans were cavemen, we never would have made it as a species.

Problem is if you keep everything shut down for too long you will have civil unrest.

 

[Fishhead]

Problem is if you keep everything shut down for too long you will have civil unrest.

That is true, but that shouldn't happen because of shutting things down for 4 months or so. If it does, there are deeper problems and the shutdown is just the trigger. I could see it in some countries where people are just waiting for a match to light everything up, but in a developed country it really should take a year before that started to happen.

 

[kingsholygrail]

That is true, but that shouldn't happen because of shutting things down for 4 months or so. If it does, there are deeper problems and the shutdown is just the trigger. I could see it in some countries where people are just waiting for a match to light everything up, but in a developed country it really should take a year before that started to happen.

Most people live paycheck to paycheck. 4 months is a lot of money per person. And they won't suddenly have jobs when things re-open again. That all depends on whether or not their businesses survived or even their industry. It's not flipping a switch. And in all likelihood, this disease will be seasonal. Can't shut down the country for half the year every year. At some point we're going to have to manage the losses.