TSN: How the coronavirus could impact the NHL’s bottom line UPD: NHL Season suspended MOD Warning post139

[Raccoon Jesus]

Here is data from Washington state through yesterday. Scroll down the page to get all the charts:

https://www.doh.wa.gov/emergencies/coronavirus

Some interesting tibdits:

93% of tests have been negative.

94% of deaths are ages 60 and older. 60% of all deaths are ages 80 and older. (This is probably skewed by the breakout in the nursing home there where over 30 people have died.)

Would be really interested to see the rate of hospitalizations/ICU by age.

I saw a doctor on TV last evening suggest that older people's immune systems are actually overreacting to the virus and that's why they are they experiencing so many severe cases. He also mentioned that the chloroquine/azithromycin combo is being used by some doctors in the US.

Yeah, especially given the sample size.

But so far given 1524 positive tests and 83 deaths, that's a 5.4 death rate. I imagine that will come down. Crazy how many negative tests there are though, what's up with that? Must be testing anyone that's had proximity?

 

[Rusty Batch]

This is going to play out one of two ways.

1.) The media is right and this is a terribly dangerous disease and the threat is so great that it is worth shutting down our economy, spending a ridiculous amount of taxpayer dollars, and costing a bunch of people their jobs (yes many young healthy people will permanently lose their job over this.)

2.) Or it's just another example of the real harm and panic that our media can inflict on the people of this country.

 

[KingLB]

This is going to play out one of two ways.

1.) The media is right and this is a terribly dangerous disease and the threat is so great that it is worth shutting down our economy, spending a ridiculous amount of taxpayer dollars, and costing a bunch of people their jobs (yes many young healthy people will permanently lose their job over this.)

2.) Or it's just another example of the real harm and panic that our media can inflict on the people of this country.

I disagree with the premise that this is media driven. This same “reaction” is happening in all western countries+most the developed Asian countries, the media isn’t driving any different narrative here then every other country’s government and media are also driving.

Its only recently there have been constant attacks on the media and government institutions (calling your own state department the deep state department) to try and get people to see “hoaxes” in everything.

 

[KINGS17]

I'm going to be nice today.

Buddy, those are confirmed cases. Cold hard data. Arguably more believable than China depending on which countries you personally believe are lying. Those charts are actual trajectories which make it easy to see how the projections go the way they go. Based on what's happened literally everywhere else with precious few exceptions, we're about to see an explosion of cases this week. Hopefully much of the country got well ahead of it, but based on how Italy responded, not likely.

The reason I posted that NYT article is because they show both extremes--one good, one bad. I think response is everything, which is why I'm ok with the letter and the numbers. And I'm going to put my faith in the "opinion" (actually, peer-researched, stat-informed scientific modeling) of a world renowned virologist over pre-set anger at a governor.

No need to be condescending, because you are not being "nice". You immediately attacked by saying I politicized the issue when I called Newsom irresponsible for making a projection of 25.5 million cases in 8 weeks, which is based on a flawed model. Trajectories are not data. Trajectories are models, which have human assumptions and bias built in. Again here is a link to actual reported cases:

Coronavirus Update (Live): 300,227 Cases and 12,948 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

These are confirmed cases. Look at the curve on the logarithmic scale for total cases. It is flattening and decelerating. Will we see more cases in the United States as testing becomes more readily available? Yes, most definitely. Is it an "explosion" as you call it? No.

The United States experienced an increase in reported cases of under 3,400 in the last day, raising the total to approximately 22,400 reported cases.

China has reported 81,000 total cases, with only 41 new cases reported in the last 24 hours. Their curve is flattening by a significant amount. Now even if China is lying their asses off, and they are, I don't think its by an order of magnitude that is equal to 1,000 times. That would mean there are or have been 81 million cases in China. Impossible to keep a number like that quiet.

There is no way we are going to see 25.5 million cases in California in 8 weeks. That was pure fabrication seeking protection in the shield of it's "worse case", when in reality it's pure baloney.

At any rate I tire of providing you the same data and facts over and over again with conservative estimates of how much it might be incorrect. You instead rely on "trajectories" based on models which are obviously flawed, because you either can't or won't do the basic math for yourself.

 

[HeadInjury]

Yeah, especially given the sample size.

But so far given 1524 positive tests and 83 deaths, that's a 5.4 death rate. I imagine that will come down. Crazy how many negative tests there are though, what's up with that? Must be testing anyone that's had proximity?

Washington says there are not enough test kits there too, although I think testing is better there than most places in US.

Speaking of death rates, New York is only 0.5%, even though it has half the cases in the country. California's is 1.8%. Now perhaps that's because a lot of the cases are newer and death isn't something that usually happens within a few days. But the death rate in the US has been steadily coming down.

Looks like New York is where we are going to find out first what happens when there aren't enough hospital beds and ventilators.

 

[KingLB]

Washington says there are not enough test kits there too, although I think testing is better there than most places in US.

Speaking of death rates, New York is only 0.5%, even though it has half the cases in the country. California's is 1.8%. Now perhaps that's because a lot of the cases are newer and death isn't something that usually happens within a few days. But the death rate in the US has been steadily coming down.

Looks like New York is where we are going to find out first what happens when there aren't enough hospital beds and respirators.

Agree, when you look at Italy’s numbers, do they have any numbers that say how many may have been from inability to provide proper care (ie ventilators)? If that number is 50% it changes trajectories a lot if you assume we have more capacity than Italy. (obviously other factors as well will effect capacity needs/usage)

 

[Rusty Batch]

I disagree with the premise that this is media driven. This same “reaction” is happening in all western countries+most the developed Asian countries, the media isn’t driving any different narrative here then every other country’s government and media are also driving.

Its only recently there have been constant attacks on the media and government institutions (calling your own state department the deep state department) to try and get people to see “hoaxes” in everything.

It's definitely media driven in our country. I don't know how it's worked in other countries. But from the beginning of this our government tried to downplay the threat of this.
Which was met with ridicule from our media.
And it certainly feels like a vast majority of he news coverage on this is grossly in favor of representing this to be incredibly dangerous and constantly critizing our government for not doing enough.

 

[HeadInjury]

Agree, when you look at Italy’s numbers, do they have any numbers that say how many may have been from inability to provide proper care (ie ventilators)? If that number is 50% it changes trajectories a lot if you assume we have more capacity than Italy. (obviously other factors as well will effect capacity needs/usage)

I've seen no data on that. I did read that the first reports (maybe a week ago?) that they were picking who got treatment and who would be left to die were overstated and that it was more about planning for that. But I'm pretty sure now that is in fact happening. Supposedly over 20% of all cases are healthcare providers.

There are a lot of reasons not to focus on Italy now in my view. The population is much older than the US. Smoking rates are higher. Custom to kiss twice on the cheek as a greeting increased the spread. Grandparents more likely to live with families rather than on their own. I've also read that their healthcare system was overtaxed before the COVID-19 outbreak.

Interesting question is why does Germany have a death rate of only .3%? It has nearly as many cases as we do.

 

[BamBam1031]

Raccoon Jesus,

Again, politicizing the CV-19 is counter-productive. I pointed it out earlier, even flushed a few of the more egregious offenders out of the brush, and nothing was done (perhaps because their politics aligned with your own). So now your ambivalence has backed you into a corner, and this thread is becoming less and less useful because no one took measures to flatten the political curve of this thread. You have no right to lash out at posters when you did nothing when you should have. Indeed, I would say you even contributed a healthy amount to the problem itself.

Please, people. President Trump and Governor Newsom need and deserve our full support and our prayers. When we come of this, then criticize and politicize away. Until then, please remember that we are in this together. And please post accordingly.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Raccoon Jesus,

Again, politicizing the CV-19 is counter-productive. I pointed it out earlier, even flushed a few of the more egregious offenders out of the brush, and nothing was done (perhaps because their politics aligned with your own). So now your ambivalence has backed you into a corner, and this thread is becoming less and less useful because no one took measures to flatten the political curve of this thread. You have no right to lash out at posters when you did nothing when you should have. Indeed, I would say you even contributed a healthy amount to the problem itself.

Please, people. President Trump and Governor Newsom need and deserve our full support and our prayers. When we come of this, then criticize and politicize away. Until then, please remember that we are in this together. And please post accordingly.

Oh please.

We've redirected everything and now you want to play mod AND accuse me of playing favorites? I don't know if you've noticed, but I'm an equal-opportunity asshole, I'm pretty sure I've pissed everyone here off at one point or another and it has nothing to do with anyone's politics.

No, I'm going to continue calling it as I see it, feel free to report things you don't like.

Feel free to ask the higher-ups if you can be a mod, I'd love to 'retire' so participating in discussions doesn't come with this smug bullshit idea that I'm censoring people who disagree with me.

 

[HeadInjury]

I can't wait till we can just go back to arguing over whether Quick should be traded.

The answer is no by the way.

 

[KingLB]

I can't wait till we can just go back to arguing over whether Quick should be traded.

The answer is no by the way.

I’m more excited about the compliance buyout arguments to come.

 

[HeadInjury]

I’m more excited about the compliance buyout arguments to come.

Yep. Can't wait until the NHL announces the cap is going down by $20 million.

 

[KINGS17]

Yep. Can't wait until the NHL announces the cap is going down by $20 million.

It's not going to be bad just because the tail end of this season has been canceled. The Canadian dollar is a dumpster fire, and won't recover quickly from this. It is at or near a 3-year low. Canadian dollar revenues taken in next season when converted to the USD are going to be down as well.

 

[KingLB]

It's not going to be bad just because the tail end of this season has been canceled. The Canadian dollar is a dumpster fire, and won't recover quickly from this. It is at or near a 3-year low. Canadian dollar revenues taken in next season when converted to the USD are going to be down as well.

It’s kinda crazy how much a country like Canada’s economy is tied to the value of oil, and how a drop in oil prices have such a ripple effect across their whole economy.

 

[KINGS17]

It’s kinda crazy how much a country like Canada’s economy is tied to the value of oil, and how a drop in oil prices have such a ripple effect across their whole economy.

Yeah, it's a big challenge for Canada. They need to find a way to diversify their economy.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Beyond compliance buyouts--they might just need to implement a 'soft cap' just due to salaries being over the cap by current default (which the NHL will--and should--bristle at), unless they have some way of scaling salaries down accordingly (which the PA would never agree to). That might be a lockout/hiatus battleground. Unless there's an easy solution I'm just overlooking.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

So WRT hockey players and the virus--the Sens played here 3/11. They probably left the 12th? The first Senator player to test positive was 3-4 days ago. The 2nd today. That's 10 days before knowing...and that's faster than most people will know (based on the 7-10 testing turnaround my friends are dealing with). It may have been as early as before the 3/7 Sharks game. And those are just the cases we know about ... that's the ticking time bomb I'm worried about. and what makes this thing so unique and morbidly fascinating.

 

[KingLB]

It’s interesting that so many of the visiting teams have been infected, have to wonder if maybe a game day ops employee working for Staples could be the link?

(since basketball and hockey teams use different locker rooms)

 

[KINGS17]

It’s interesting that so many of the visiting teams have been infected, have to wonder if maybe a game day ops employee working for Staples could be the link?

(since basketball and hockey teams use different locker rooms)

One would have to think it might be someone the visiting teams are coming in contact with, because I would think the visiting locker rooms are getting a thorough cleaning after being used by each team.

Is Bailey a Laker girl, maybe?

 

[HeadInjury]

Regarding testing, 45,000 tests have been performed in New York state, compared to 23,000 in California and 23,000 in Washington state.

 

[KINGS17]

Regarding testing, 45,000 tests have been performed in New York state, compared to 23,000 in California and 23,000 in Washington state.

That should be expected. New York suddenly appears to be the epicenter now for the United States. There are over 10,000 reported cases reported in New York compared to around 1,500 in Washington.

Certainly much more travel to New York from western Europe than to the west coast. Earlier cases in Washington state were probably the result of travel from the Far East. Since travel from the Far East was restricted much earlier than from anywhere else, it should calm down faster in Washington than in New York.

 

[crassbonanza]

It’s interesting that so many of the visiting teams have been infected, have to wonder if maybe a game day ops employee working for Staples could be the link?

(since basketball and hockey teams use different locker rooms)

Someone mentioned that media for the Kings/Sens was done in the NBA visitors locker room, so that could provide a link.

 

[HeadInjury]

Based on GMT, the "day" has now ended with 4,825 new cases and 46 deaths.

Deaths the last 4 days are 41, 57, 49 and 46.

Is this good news? I'm starting to think the answer is not really. There are so many new cases reported that they are having the effect of lowering the death rate possibly because the illness hasn't yet had a chance to run its course.

Washington's totals today were 269 new cases vs. 148 yesterday and 11 new deaths vs. 9 yesterday. Death rate down to 5.2%.

 

[Rumpelstiltskin]

Oh and The W.H.O is a totally F'ed up evil monarchist system that should be dismantled immediately.

Taiwan shares your acrimony towards the W.H.O. (I came across these - one from a progressive source; the other conservative - while researching "why" Taiwan has had such low #s of confirmed cases so far). One major factor appears to be: Taiwan was severely impacted by the SARs outbreak in the early-Oughts (whereas, IIRC, it wasn't nearly as big a deal to us - maybe my memory is failing <?>); so, they were a bit better prepared for dealing with a nearby-emanating viral outbreak than most nations.

Taiwan shows its mettle in coronavirus crisis, while the WHO is MIA

Taiwan: WHO Failed to Heed Warning of Coronavirus Human-to-Human Transmission | National Review