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TSN: How the coronavirus could impact the NHL’s bottom line UPD: NHL Season suspended MOD Warning post139

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KingLB said:
Places that still have malaria problems are also the places not likely to administer tests for this.
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True, but they would have seen people with symptoms by now, likely with some mortality. I don't think those countries are that out of touch, and WHO is likely monitoring them for possible outbreaks.
 
Newsom projects 25 million Californians will become infected with the COVID-19 virus over an 8-week period.

I would like to know the analysis which was done to come up with the 25 million infected number. At this time there are approximately 14,300 reported cases in the United States. Worldwide there are a little under 245,000 cases reported. I understand the number of cases are under reported, but worldwide the number of cases reported would have to be off by a factor of 10 before the number of cases Newsom is expecting in California alone would be reached.

I call BS on this estimated number of cases, and the use of it as a basis to shut down the entire state.
 
It's complete BS. It's what he claims the State estimates would happen without mitigation. But there is already mitigation. Closed schools, social distancing and now shelter in place. So it is an absolutely meaningless number.
 
KINGS17 said:
My favorite episode is the one where William Shatner is taken off a plane and put in a straight jacket after it lands. During the flight he saw a Gremlin on the wing trying to sabotage the engine. Funny to me, because I work in the industry.
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Good choice. I'm always partial to "A stop at Willoughby". I used to take the Amtrak home from union station and every once in a while they would put us on an old style train.
 
HookKing said:
Good choice. I'm always partial to "A stop at Willoughby". I used to take the Amtrak home from union station and every once in a while they would put us on an old style train.
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Did you ever ask the conductor which stop is Willoughby?

I wish Netflix had the hour long episodes, they didn't put that season on though. That episode with young Dennis Hopper as a neonazi had incredible acting
 
CrazyMonkey1208 said:
Did you ever ask the conductor which stop is Willoughby?

I wish Netflix had the hour long episodes, they didn't put that season on though. That episode with young Dennis Hopper as a neonazi had incredible acting
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No, but I kept expecting to hear, "Willoughby, next stop is Willoughby."
 
KINGS17 said:
Newsom projects 25 million Californians will become infected with the COVID-19 virus over an 8-week period.

I would like to know the analysis which was done to come up with the 25 million infected number. At this time there are approximately 14,300 reported cases in the United States. Worldwide there are a little under 245,000 cases reported. I understand the number of cases are under reported, but worldwide the number of cases reported would have to be off by a factor of 10 before the number of cases Newsom is expecting in California alone would be reached.

I call BS on this estimated number of cases, and the use of it as a basis to shut down the entire state.
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If he would have said "worst case" it would have made sense. That could happen.

It's BS, but I'd rather him say that than to take a more nonchalant attitude towards it. The main reason its so prevalent in Spain and Italy is because the people don't really listen and do what they want. There's certainly an element of Californians who need to be scared to actually do things they should, like stay in the house. It's unfortunate, but that's how it is here. Americans, and especially Californians, really don't like disruptions to their every day routines, even when those routines kind of suck :laugh:
 
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KINGS17 said:
Newsom projects 25 million Californians will become infected with the COVID-19 virus over an 8-week period.

I would like to know the analysis which was done to come up with the 25 million infected number. At this time there are approximately 14,300 reported cases in the United States. Worldwide there are a little under 245,000 cases reported. I understand the number of cases are under reported, but worldwide the number of cases reported would have to be off by a factor of 10 before the number of cases Newsom is expecting in California alone would be reached.

I call BS on this estimated number of cases, and the use of it as a basis to shut down the entire state.
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I have to disagree with you here. The power of exponential growth is staggering. If we use this link from the LA Times California coronavirus cases: Tracking the outbreak it appears that there are roughly 1,000 cases confirmed in California right now. If we assume that the virus expands at a factor of roughly 1.3 per day you get the following numbers:

Day 1 - 1,300
Day 2 - 1,690
Day 3 - 2,197
Day 4 - 2,856
Day 5 - 3,713
Day 10 - 13,786
Day 15 - 51,185
Day 20 - 190,049
Day 25 - 705,641
Day 30 - 2,619,995
Day 40 - 36,118,864

And that isn't even the full 8 weeks. And feel free to check my numbers. All I did was plug 1,000 * 1.3 into a calculator and hit "=" the number of times for the number of days. Even if you drop the infection rate to 1.2 you get the following numbers:

Day 1 - 1,200
Day 2 - 1,440
Day 3 - 1,728
Day 4 - 2,074
Day 5 - 2,488
Day 10 - 6,191
Day 15 - 15,407
Day 20 - 38,337
Day 25 - 95,396
Day 30 - 237,376
Day 40 - 1,469,771
Day 50 - 9,100,438
Day 56 - 27,173,762

And again ... feel free to double check my numbers. Maybe you disagree with the rate of infection. That's totally fair ... but exponential growth is a real mf'er
 
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On a lighter note, how prescient was that thread a while back on 70's hairstyles for the players? With everyone unable or afraid to go to a barber shop we will soon see a universal return to 70's bad hair.
 
Chruceg said:
I have to disagree with you here. The power of exponential growth is staggering. If we use this link from the LA Times California coronavirus cases: Tracking the outbreak it appears that there are roughly 1,000 cases confirmed in California right now. If we assume that the virus expands at a factor of roughly 1.3 per day you get the following numbers:

Day 1 - 1,300
Day 2 - 1,690
Day 3 - 2,197
Day 4 - 2,856
Day 5 - 3,713
Day 10 - 13,786
Day 15 - 51,185
Day 20 - 190,049
Day 25 - 705,641
Day 30 - 2,619,995
Day 40 - 36,118,864

And that isn't even the full 8 weeks. And feel free to check my numbers. All I did was plug 1,000 * 1.3 into a calculator and hit "=" the number of times for the number of days. Even if you drop the infection rate to 1.2 you get the following numbers:

Day 1 - 1,200
Day 2 - 1,440
Day 3 - 1,728
Day 4 - 2,074
Day 5 - 2,488
Day 10 - 6,191
Day 15 - 15,407
Day 20 - 38,337
Day 25 - 95,396
Day 30 - 237,376
Day 40 - 1,469,771
Day 50 - 9,100,438
Day 56 - 27,173,762

And again ... feel free to double check my numbers. Maybe you disagree with the rate of infection. That's totally fair ... but exponential growth is a real mf'er
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I don't disagree with your math. I disagree with your assumption of a constant growth factor of 1.3 per day.
 
KINGS17 said:
I don't disagree with your math. I disagree with your assumption of a constant growth factor of 1.3 per day.
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In most other places, the infections doubled every 3 days.

Without accounting for our lack of diagnoses/inaccurate labeling and poor testing availability practices even giving us accurate numbers, and without people following stringent procedure, it's more than fair to extrapolate that's exactly what will happen here as it's exactly what's happened almost everywhere else. That's not an assumption, it's a common documented factor.

But to be fair, those are numbers before current measures, and we're just hoping those measures head it off at the pass. I'd honestly rather have them overestimate and hopefully get in front of this thing by scaring the shit out of everyone and be 'wrong' than let everyone just ride around nonchalantly.
 
Raccoon Jesus said:
In most other places, the infections doubled every 3 days.

Without accounting for our lack of diagnoses/inaccurate labeling and poor testing availability practices even giving us accurate numbers, and without people following stringent procedure, it's more than fair to extrapolate that's exactly what will happen here as it's exactly what's happened almost everywhere else. That's not an assumption, it's a common documented factor.

But to be fair, those are numbers before current measures, and we're just hoping those measures head it off at the pass. I'd honestly rather have them overestimate and hopefully get in front of this thing by scaring the shit out of everyone and be 'wrong' than let everyone just ride around nonchalantly.
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I prefer an honest assessment. Newsom scaring the shit out of people is going to do more harm than good in the short term and the long term.

When he is wrong this time, and he is wrong, will people believe an authority figure the next time?

In Italy at this time they have approximately 47,000 cases. They had approximately 6,000 new cases identified yesterday. The virus is not spreading at anything even close to a rate of 1.3 times per day where people who have tested positive have been quarantined. It's completely irresponsible for Newsom to say 25 million Californians will be infected over the next 8 weeks.

Also, there are currently approximately 170,000 active cases in the entire world, with 162,000 of those classified as mild. Even if the number of active cases is off by two orders of magnitude (100 times), the total number of cases would only be 17,000,000.

If Newsom wants to do something useful, he should solve the problem of vagrants sleeping and defecating in public areas.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 272,056 Cases and 11,300 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
 
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Raccoon Jesus said:
But to be fair, those are numbers before current measures
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Another way to say this is that those are numbers that are based on assumptions which don't exist, i.e., that everyone is just going about their business, schools and restaurants are open, bars are packed, sporting events and concerts are going on as usual, people aren't sheltering in home, etc.

So it's untethered to reality.
 
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At any rate I am no longer worried. I saw this beauty on amazon.com, ordered it and got same day delivery.

qh3Um8U.jpg
 
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Some optimistic news from Washington. Here's info on positive tests:

2/28: 1
2/29: 7 +6 600%
3/2: 18 +11 157%
3/4: 39 +21 117%
3/6: 83 +44 113%
3/8: 137 +54 65%
3/10: 267 +130 95%
3/12: 457 +190 71%
3/14: 642 +185 40%
3/16: 904 +282 44%
3/18: 1,187 +283 31%
3/19: 1,376 +189 16%

The second column is a running total of positive cases. The third column has the daily positive tests. The fourth column shows percentage increase to the running total based on that day's increase.

So far today, they are only showing 2 more positives, so the data presumably hasn't been updated.

(While there days skipped above, the total number of positive cases is correct as of yesterday.)

Washington's death rate per reported case is about 5.4%. That's probably in large part is due to that one nursing home being hit so hard. I think there were about 30 deaths in that one facility.

Washington is now the key location to look at since they began social distancing and sheltering in home first. It also has had relatively good testing compared to other states.

Way too early to jump to conclusions, but at least there's potentially some good news about mitigation efforts under way.
 
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Chruceg said:
I have to disagree with you here. The power of exponential growth is staggering. If we use this link from the LA Times California coronavirus cases: Tracking the outbreak it appears that there are roughly 1,000 cases confirmed in California right now. If we assume that the virus expands at a factor of roughly 1.3 per day you get the following numbers:

Day 1 - 1,300
Day 2 - 1,690
Day 3 - 2,197
Day 4 - 2,856
Day 5 - 3,713
Day 10 - 13,786
Day 15 - 51,185
Day 20 - 190,049
Day 25 - 705,641
Day 30 - 2,619,995
Day 40 - 36,118,864

And that isn't even the full 8 weeks. And feel free to check my numbers. All I did was plug 1,000 * 1.3 into a calculator and hit "=" the number of times for the number of days. Even if you drop the infection rate to 1.2 you get the following numbers:

Day 1 - 1,200
Day 2 - 1,440
Day 3 - 1,728
Day 4 - 2,074
Day 5 - 2,488
Day 10 - 6,191
Day 15 - 15,407
Day 20 - 38,337
Day 25 - 95,396
Day 30 - 237,376
Day 40 - 1,469,771
Day 50 - 9,100,438
Day 56 - 27,173,762

And again ... feel free to double check my numbers. Maybe you disagree with the rate of infection. That's totally fair ... but exponential growth is a real mf'er
Click to expand...

This growth pattern assumes what as preventative measures, none I guess? Because if most/all normal people use basic common sense to prevent the infection of others then there is no way we will see this, especially for California alone IMO.

One way I think about this from a prevention POV is where you KNOW that if you do something dangerous that it will end up in something really bad like added infection and or death for you and or another person.

So for example lets say - you were on a plane for (and assuming you could open the door at altitude) and you DID then it would certainly end up in a deadly result. BUT - you KNOW to proactively avoid THAT in order to remain safe (because you're smart and want to live), so you and most normal people DON'T stupidly do that. It makes flying VERY safe doesn't it?

We face these kinds of choices daily right? Don't run a Red Light, dont drink excessive amounts and then drive, don't play with a loaded gun, how many other examples can be found? My very lame example above was pretty bad, but I'm using it to make the point.

I see a growth progression that isn't NOT necessarily pretty, but the stuff Newsom tossed out is both unrealistic and irresponsible for the Governor to do IMO. The biggest thing with this whole thing that's really in play here is FEAR and his comments stoke that Fear. He comes across like he's just trying to scare everyone and that's not helpful.
 
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HeadInjury said:
Some optimistic news from Washington. Here's info on positive tests:

2/28: 1
2/29: 7 +6 600%
3/2: 18 +11 157%
3/4: 39 +21 117%
3/6: 83 +44 113%
3/8: 137 +54 65%
3/10: 267 +130 95%
3/12: 457 +190 71%
3/14: 642 +185 40%
3/16: 904 +282 44%
3/18: 1,187 +283 31%
3/19: 1,376 +189 16%

The second column is a running total of positive cases. The third column has the daily positive tests. The fourth column shows percentage increase to the running total based on that day's increase.

So far today, they are only showing 2 more positives, so the data presumably hasn't been updated.

(While there days skipped above, the total number of positive cases is correct as of yesterday.)

Washington's death rate per reported case is about 5.4%. That's probably in large part is due to that one nursing home being hit so hard. I think there were about 30 deaths in that one facility.

Washington is now the key location to look at since they began social distancing and sheltering in home first. It also has had relatively good testing compared to other states.

Way too early to jump to conclusions, but at least there's potentially some good news about mitigation efforts under way.
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Certainly good news that cases are going down, I just wonder then what? If all the sheltering in place makes it so that most people don't get it, then it's not like one day you can just go back to business as usual becasue all it takes is one infected person to start the shitshow all over again. Seems returning to normal is going to be real difficult.
 
HeadInjury said:
Another way to say this is that those are numbers that are based on assumptions which don't exist, i.e., that everyone is just going about their business, schools and restaurants are open, bars are packed, sporting events and concerts are going on as usual, people aren't sheltering in home, etc.

So it's untethered to reality.
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But this is a guy who will lecture you on science-based decisions.
 
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