The numbers I've used largely come from the worldometers website, which starts a new day everywhere worldwide at 0:00 GMT. So "today" is now over on that site. Based on its readings, deaths in the US are down slightly compared to yesterday's totals (49 vs. 57) and Washington's new cases are down a bit further to 148.
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Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Really stupid f***ing time for political grandstanding. Be mad at Newsom's other policies later. I'm happy to have state leadership across the country taking drastic action and sharing grim, shocking truths when federal leadership is too busy shorting their stocks and worrying about approval numbers to face reality.
To the boldfaced, good lord, I'd LOVE for you to be extremely right, and if this is the procuring cause, I'm all for it, because there is ample proof from literally almost every other country on the globe that these measures are necessary. Who gives one flying f*** about the factor of infection being off by one tenth? That's one of the biggest cases of missing the forest for the trees I've ever seen on this forum and that's saying something. And who is going to believe an authority figure who lies? hahahahahaahahahahahahahahaha. Got me good with that joke.
A Different Way to Chart the Spread of Coronavirus
Check out Italy's curve. Now check out our curve. Now read, instead of feel. Italy's spread is finally currently slowing (not growing exponentially, growing flatly) at least partially because of said measures.
Edit: from the article linked below: "Mitre, a nonprofit that does work on health care, calculated that coronavirus cases are doubling more quickly in the United States than in any other country it examined, including Italy and Iran."
Yeah, that's a little scarier to me than a governor you don't care for saying big numbers.
See above, and boy, do I have news for you...
Like I said. I'd love you guys to be right and that we all got ahead of this and the usual people can be pissed at Newsom after for 'wrecking' a month of their lives by enacting measures that are successful elsewhere. That would be the best case scenario.
Opinion | The Best-Case Outcome for the Coronavirus, and the Worst
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
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I will stick with a source that is reporting the numbers on actual cases and deaths. As I said even if worldwide they are off by a factor of 100, the total cases reported worldwide is less than half of what Newsom is predicting for California. If anyone is politically grandstanding it is Newsom, and I am criticizing him for stoking fear in the general public.
Given the protective measures in place, California isn't going to come anywhere near 25 million infected citizens.
...and please the NY Times, yeah they are completely objective. BTW, your second link was on the opinion page by this guy:
Nicholas Donabet Kristof is an American journalist and political commentator. A winner of two Pulitzer Prizes, he is a regular CNN contributor and has written an op-ed column for The New York Times since November 2001. Kristof is a self-described progressive.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Er.
Okay, he's a two time pulitzer prize winner, literally cites a best case AND worst case scenario, and quotes Dr. Larry Brilliant, Dr. Charles Prober, Dr. Tom Inglesby, Dr. Neil M. Ferguson, and a plethora of other well credentialed, world renowned physicians. This is you going out of your way to gaslight yourself. Who else do you need to hear from?
The CDC and WHO stats paint a picture that--so far--is mimicking Italy nearly exactly, if not worse when you consider the lack of testing and other factors.
I'm literally praying that you're correct and would love to incur your disdain after this. But hope for the best, plan for the worst. That's what's happening here. Save the sanctimonious partisan fury for another time.
Edit: here, from a more conservative source:
"A worst-case scenario model from the CDC suggests up to 210 million Americans could get the coronavirus.
The number of deaths under the CDC’s scenarios ranged from 200,000 to as many as 1.7 million."
US death toll from coronavirus hits 100
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KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
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Err, you should take your own advice. I provided actual statistics. You are providing opinions of those with whom you happen to agree due to some preconceived notion. The numbers don't agree with you. That's a fact.
The Pulitzer Prize isn't what it used to be, or perhaps you can point out to me the last time it wasn't won by someone leaning toward your way of thinking.
...and by the way you're the one who brought politics into this discussion. I just pointed out that Newsom's projections are BS, because they don't take into account all of the precautions and work that is being accomplished to fight the spread of the virus. Let me know when there are 25 million cases reported in China. That alone should tell you how ridiculous Newsom was being with his projection.
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Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
How many sources--and what credible sources--do you need stats from to be convinced of "my way of thinking" (lol), the one that's confirmed by what's factually taken place in Italy? Because I've just provided several that are using the statistics to show what's literally happened and what could happen based on what's happened in most places--including the measures taken by Italy similar to CA's recommendation--and are modeled by the worlds top experts?
Like I said, if the worst thing that happens is that you're offended by Newsom's projections that fall right in line with research and reality, then we've done right.
Here's a quick one summarizing the Imperial College study: Modeling study suggests 18 months of COVID-19 social distancing, much disruption
(link to the research in the article, it's a long, but worthwhile read)
And here's yet another country following the trajectory above: Indonesia Sways Toward Pandemic's Worst Case Scenario, Announces 19 Deaths From Covid-19
And finally, yes, a source you won't like, but using the actual data: Why we’re not overreacting to the coronavirus, in one chart
"The lesson from Italy isn’t just that you have to act before your hospitals are overwhelmed. It’s that you have to take steps that appear in the moment to be an exceptional overreaction — because by the time it looks like the steps you’re taking are appropriate, it will have been too late. "
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KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
- 32,582
- 11,767
How many sources--and what credible sources--do you need stats from to be convinced of "my way of thinking" (lol), the one that's confirmed by what's factually taken place in Italy? Because I've just provided several that are using the statistics to show what's literally happened and what could happen based on what's happened in most places--including the measures taken by Italy similar to CA's recommendation--and are modeled by the worlds top experts?
Like I said, if the worst thing that happens is that you're offended by Newsom's projections that fall right in line with research and reality, then we've done right.
Here's a quick one summarizing the Imperial College study: Modeling study suggests 18 months of COVID-19 social distancing, much disruption
(link to the research in the article, it's a long, but worthwhile read)
And here's yet another country following the trajectory above: Indonesia Sways Toward Pandemic's Worst Case Scenario, Announces 19 Deaths From Covid-19
And finally, yes, a source you won't like, but using the actual data: Why we’re not overreacting to the coronavirus, in one chart
"The lesson from Italy isn’t just that you have to act before your hospitals are overwhelmed. It’s that you have to take steps that appear in the moment to be an exceptional overreaction — because by the time it looks like the steps you’re taking are appropriate, it will have been too late. "
...and here is a link to actual data from China, which even if they are lying there asses off, will never approach 25 million cases in just 8 weeks. China's curve is flattening, so tell me how Newsom's projections fall right in line with reality (you can't, because they don't), but don't come at me with some BS from the NY Times or Vox, because I can do the math. You have a hell of a lot of nerve calling someone posting actual data sanctimonious, then using the NY Times and Vox as your sources.
China Coronavirus: 81,008 Cases and 3,255 Deaths - Worldometer
Here is a link to what Governor Newsom sent in a letter to President Trump. You have eight weeks from March 19, to see the number of cases in California rise from less than 1,300 to 25,000,000. Now, tell me again how Newsom isn't full of shit, because if it is going to grow at the rate he is suggesting 50 people on my block will surely catch it within a couple of weeks, and you know what? I don't know a single person who has it now.
Coronavirus: California estimates 25.5 million residents — 56% of the state — will get virus in next 8 weeks
California estimates that more than half of the state — 25.5 million people — will get the new coronavirus over the next eight weeks, according to a letter sent by Gov. Gavin Newsom to U.S. President Donald Trump.
Newsom is trying to create more fear, with his blatant exaggeration.
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Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Of course they won't. Because 1. as you note, they're lying their asses off and 2. They took extreme measures to head it off.
To the "I don't know a single person who has it now..." wow. That's all I've got. Part of the reason this thing is such a problem is that literally everyone around you right now could have it and you wouldn't know.
It's not dishonest to use data-based projections of what can happen to secure help to prevent that result. That's all.
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
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That's all is right, because you literally have nothing. I am sure many people have been infected that are unaccounted for, but it doesn't mean literally everyone around me could have it. It actually means literally someone around me as I go about my business could have it. Big difference between everyone and someone, but stick to your pompous rhetoric.
I will stick with the data, and I am willing to bet there haven't been 25 million cases in China. We'll re-visit this in 8 weeks and see what a pompous ass Newsom is on this subject.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Yes, that's literally exactly what it means. You DON'T know. People can be asymptomatic for quite some time, AND tests are relatively scarce. Everyone around you could have it right this moment. It's very unlikely, obviously, but this arrogant faux-invincibility is what leads to the spread.
Spoiler alert: no, you're clearly not sticking to the data. I'll leave you with one last trajectory graph to sleep on while you mock projections based on data.
So yeah, in short, this all boils down to you're letting your disdain for a politician override your common sense, your "I must be right and Newsom must be wrong" is more important than just doing the damn thing.
f***ing politics, man. Where stopping millions of people from getting sick and possible death is less important than scoring points. f*** this, I'm out.
RocketKing
Registered User
- Jul 2, 2017
- 986
- 876
From an overall California POV, the most concerning group of people who I believe are most likely to be spreaders are what cause me the most anxiety as far as being able to contain the spread and beat this thing.
Homeless.
If we cannot control the spread within this group then we are totally screwed. They are literally everywhere constantly co-mingling in our big City Metro Areas. A walking Army of ready to spread and get sick zombies who will spread it with zero controls and then when sick will take up our precious ICU bed capacity when they surge as patients.
If Newsom is making his dire comments because he's thinking that we have no way to control this group, then his prognostication of hell may be closer to the truth than my POV that he is drastically over reporting the potential disaster.
I hope to God that he is doing some real tangible Planning right now as to how to get this population LOCKED DOWN. Without doing this, then he is risking the health and welfare of the entire State of Citizens.
Homeless.
If we cannot control the spread within this group then we are totally screwed. They are literally everywhere constantly co-mingling in our big City Metro Areas. A walking Army of ready to spread and get sick zombies who will spread it with zero controls and then when sick will take up our precious ICU bed capacity when they surge as patients.
If Newsom is making his dire comments because he's thinking that we have no way to control this group, then his prognostication of hell may be closer to the truth than my POV that he is drastically over reporting the potential disaster.
I hope to God that he is doing some real tangible Planning right now as to how to get this population LOCKED DOWN. Without doing this, then he is risking the health and welfare of the entire State of Citizens.
DoktorJeep
Luc and Rob are a waste of time and money.
Not gonna lie. Until I see the crusties and bums start to drop en masse I’m not going to freak out. I’m fortunate to not be impacted by what’s going on at a personal level. So I see the overall value of the shelter in place order.
Good morning everyone.
My comments about the 25.5 million projection are not based on a belief that things aren't as bad as they may seem or anything of that nature. I have no idea how bad things are now or how bad things are going to get. Newsom's letter (to Trump asking for assistance) stated (in an intentionally veiled way) that the 25.5 million figure did not take into consideration mitigation efforts (even though mitigation efforts were well underway). Whether the goal was to scare people or put pressure on Trump to provide the assistance requested, that figure should not have been used. That's my only point on that. Overall, I think Newsom is doing a good job.
Raccoon Jesus points out above that the US rate of increase in infections is similar to (and now surpassing) Italy's rate. That is true, and I've been updating Italy's totals almost daily here (yesterday was particularly bad), but I'm not sure Italy is the best comparable. For whatever reason, the death rate in Italy (deaths divided by total positive tests) is 7 times higher than here (8.6% vs. 1.2%).
Even though there are not enough test kits to go around, something around 90% of tests are coming back negative.
My doctor friend says his hospital has about a week or two of supplies left. They are seeing many younger people. But it's largely people who are obese, diabetic, high blood pressure, etc. There are healthy younger people hospitalized, but mostly its the elderly and people who have underlying conditions.
Ground zero in the US is clearly now New York. Half of total positive tests in the country are from there.
My comments about the 25.5 million projection are not based on a belief that things aren't as bad as they may seem or anything of that nature. I have no idea how bad things are now or how bad things are going to get. Newsom's letter (to Trump asking for assistance) stated (in an intentionally veiled way) that the 25.5 million figure did not take into consideration mitigation efforts (even though mitigation efforts were well underway). Whether the goal was to scare people or put pressure on Trump to provide the assistance requested, that figure should not have been used. That's my only point on that. Overall, I think Newsom is doing a good job.
Raccoon Jesus points out above that the US rate of increase in infections is similar to (and now surpassing) Italy's rate. That is true, and I've been updating Italy's totals almost daily here (yesterday was particularly bad), but I'm not sure Italy is the best comparable. For whatever reason, the death rate in Italy (deaths divided by total positive tests) is 7 times higher than here (8.6% vs. 1.2%).
Even though there are not enough test kits to go around, something around 90% of tests are coming back negative.
My doctor friend says his hospital has about a week or two of supplies left. They are seeing many younger people. But it's largely people who are obese, diabetic, high blood pressure, etc. There are healthy younger people hospitalized, but mostly its the elderly and people who have underlying conditions.
Ground zero in the US is clearly now New York. Half of total positive tests in the country are from there.
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KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
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...and you are free to look at actual data from China, which no doubt is not 100% accurate, but not off by orders of magnitude. I choose to look at actual data, you choose to look at projections based on models which are probably inaccurate.Yes, that's literally exactly what it means. You DON'T know. People can be asymptomatic for quite some time, AND tests are relatively scarce. Everyone around you could have it right this moment. It's very unlikely, obviously, but this arrogant faux-invincibility is what leads to the spread.
Spoiler alert: no, you're clearly not sticking to the data. I'll leave you with one last trajectory graph to sleep on while you mock projections based on data.
So yeah, in short, this all boils down to you're letting your disdain for a politician override your common sense, your "I must be right and Newsom must be wrong" is more important than just doing the damn thing.
f***ing politics, man. Where stopping millions of people from getting sick and possible death is less important than scoring points. f*** this, I'm out.
Don't come in here with a chart of "projected" cases and call it real data. The model for projected cases is based on the opinion of those who created it.
ricardfromage
"You wanted the Germs, you get em"
I thought we were staying away from ANY political debate in this thread. Seems like I need a re-think. Oh and The W.H.O is a totally F'ed up evil monarchist system that should be dismantled immediately. I think that they are a true enemy of ALL people. Lot's of good statistical info (or bad if you consider it is mostly all B.S.) being posted by several people in this thread. It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out and how much factual truth we will get to see when it does.
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
ricardfromage
"You wanted the Germs, you get em"
Yes, that's literally exactly what it means. You DON'T know. People can be asymptomatic for quite some time, AND tests are relatively scarce. Everyone around you could have it right this moment. It's very unlikely, obviously, but this arrogant faux-invincibility is what leads to the spread.
Spoiler alert: no, you're clearly not sticking to the data. I'll leave you with one last trajectory graph to sleep on while you mock projections based on data.
So yeah, in short, this all boils down to you're letting your disdain for a politician override your common sense, your "I must be right and Newsom must be wrong" is more important than just doing the damn thing.
f***ing politics, man. Where stopping millions of people from getting sick and possible death is less important than scoring points. f*** this, I'm out.
So I have known you and posted with/around you for over a decade and I agree with most of what you have said here but with the potential for completely possible inaccuracies and misleading info being put out by everyone I have a hard time agreeing with most all of the information that is being fed us by everyone. Seems to me like something more is going on here but I don't know what it could be. I think my issue with what you are saying here isn't that I disagree or agree with the political aspect of what you are saying but more that I don't trust the information well enough to put any sort of faith in it. I think that simple smart response to ANY outbreak is what is saving lives here. That and the knowledge that there is a virological threat out there. I mean what are they all telling us to do? Wash your hands don't go out and mingle among too many people, be safe in regards to your health. Just like with any flu.
KingLB
Registered User
- Oct 29, 2008
- 9,035
- 1,160
Dude you took an out on context quote, extrapolated it to the nth degree then refused to listen to sources cause your dear leader doesn’t like them. Then talk about “actual data” as if anyone has any accurate data. Hell even when flu season numbers are given, the total sick is filled with numbers of people that got it but were never tested. Those people are added in after the fact. Assuming 80% of ppl have mild or no symptoms, our number of cases would be off by a magnitude of 5 just from that. Let alone things like lack of testing skewing the curve.
So I have probably a sinus infection. Have been quarantining the past week. Took groceries to my 74 year old mum once. Pretty sure there are only one or two verified cases in the Antelope Valley. I hate that having a couple symptoms sends everyone into concern and fear. I hate more that there is no test to rule it out. My wife and child can’t really go somewhere else. You can’t really get treatment until it’s severe and meanwhile your family gets it while you wait. I feel like America should have been better prepared.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
I'm going to be nice today.
Buddy, those are confirmed cases. Cold hard data. Arguably more believable than China depending on which countries you personally believe are lying. Those charts are actual trajectories which make it easy to see how the projections go the way they go. Based on what's happened literally everywhere else with precious few exceptions, we're about to see an explosion of cases this week. Hopefully much of the country got well ahead of it, but based on how Italy responded, not likely.
The reason I posted that NYT article is because they show both extremes--one good, one bad. I think response is everything, which is why I'm ok with the letter and the numbers. And I'm going to put my faith in the "opinion" (actually, peer-researched, stat-informed scientific modeling) of a world renowned virologist over pre-set anger at a governor.
ricardfromage
"You wanted the Germs, you get em"
I like your post and agree with your assessment of the cold hard data with the exception of anything written by the more often than not proven to be incorrect NYT. It is where the term fish wrap came from (it really is). I am certain that they can and might even get things right once in a very very blue moon but I wouldn't use them to support any fact based argument. Nothing to do with political bias, it is just simply garbage.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Yeah, they're still learning lots about Italy, much that will be too hard late to extrapolate and figure out here. It was a mostly older population, very dense, history of smoking, very touchy socially. Maybe more vulnerable due to all of the above, maybe not. That comment unfortunately made people think it was lethal to only the elderly, when a couple of 30 year olds have died here in the last few days. I'd like to think that outside of the population centers at least that restricted travel and quarantine measures will make it fizzle out in the suburbs, but hopefully we did it a day too early rather than a day too late.
My goal isn't trying to say we're exactly like any other country or that we're definitely hitting 25.5 million. It's only that based on people's UNDERreactions to 'stern warnings' around the globe that it makes sense to me to go straight for things that can scare the shit out of people to take it seriously. I don't mind people disagreeing with in and of itself that in principle, but that number isn't a buttpull, it's got a basis.
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
- 32,582
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I have said the data is not accurate. I have also said if you do the math, and the number of cases and deaths reported from China are off by two orders of magnitude (100x), you still do not get to the 25.5 million infections Newsom projected in his letter to President Trump.
I did not politicize this. You are by calling Trump "dear leader". I simply disputed the numbers Newsom published as a projection, and called it irresponsible.
How are you getting an order of magnitude of 5? An order of magnitude is 10x, two orders is 100x, five orders would be 100,000 times. Are you saying their are 100,000 times more cases in California than the approximately 300,000 reported worldwide? 100,000 times more than the approximately 1,300 cases reported in California? Being off by 5 orders of magnitude would mean there are 130,000,000 million cases in California. The population of the state is only 40 million. I don't think you are understanding the term "magnitude" as it is used in statistical analysis.
Here is data from Washington state through yesterday. Scroll down the page to get all the charts:
https://www.doh.wa.gov/emergencies/coronavirus
Some interesting tibdits:
93% of tests have been negative.
94% of deaths are ages 60 and older. 60% of all deaths are ages 80 and older. (This is probably skewed by the breakout in the nursing home there where over 30 people have died.)
Would be really interested to see the rate of hospitalizations/ICU by age.
I saw a doctor on TV last evening suggest that older people's immune systems are actually overreacting to the virus and that's why they are they experiencing so many severe cases. He also mentioned that the chloroquine/azithromycin combo is being used by some doctors in the US.
https://www.doh.wa.gov/emergencies/coronavirus
Some interesting tibdits:
93% of tests have been negative.
94% of deaths are ages 60 and older. 60% of all deaths are ages 80 and older. (This is probably skewed by the breakout in the nursing home there where over 30 people have died.)
Would be really interested to see the rate of hospitalizations/ICU by age.
I saw a doctor on TV last evening suggest that older people's immune systems are actually overreacting to the virus and that's why they are they experiencing so many severe cases. He also mentioned that the chloroquine/azithromycin combo is being used by some doctors in the US.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
You literally said:
As if the shelter-in-place order were pointless/not useful and turned the focus to his policy decisions.
It's water under the bridge now and we've moved to refocus on the trajectory, but that's where it came from, if you weren't aware.
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