How much faith do you have in the core 4?

[Stonehands1990]

I wonder if Tavares gives us the Spezza hometown discount when this current deal expires?

I think at 34 he might still be worth 1-2 million per year. But when his fitness drops off I expect the Spezza deal especially if he expects the front office job like the one Spezza will eventually get

 

[Omar23]

You said he has no shot, can't score on the PP, not a great skater, not physical. How is that not a cap dump?[/QUOTE
Now that you mentioned all his shortcomings, I’m also convinced, marner is a cap dump. Dubas will have to do what’s necessary to to get rid of him

 

[zeke]

PS. As of today and current roster construction I see our Leafs in a season long battle for a wild card spot with a group of teams in that same boat just to get in to the playoffs.

For the record, this is exactly what you thought coming into this last season, too.

 

[rumman]

For the record, this is exactly what you thought coming into this last season, too.

Mess is right, without the gift of a very weak Northern Division this team will have all they can handles getting a wildcard spot this upcoming season.

 

[HarryLime]

Tkachuk for Marner would be perfect imo.

 

[Trapper]

Mess is right, without the gift of a very weak Northern Division this team will have all they can handles getting a wildcard spot this upcoming season.

At least that mystery will be solved in the coming season, unlike the mystery of waiting for the core to just get it.

 

[ToneDog]

Mess is right, without the gift of a very weak Northern Division this team will have all they can handles getting a wildcard spot this upcoming season.

You only can see this from a mile away if you are not wearing blue and white glasses or drinking the same kool-aid Shanny and Dubas are drinking and feeding to the board.

 

[Seras]

Tkachuk for Marner would be perfect imo.

PPG winger on an upward trajectory every single season to date who is over a PPG in his young career or a whiny man-child who just had a worse season than his previous two and apparently has asked to be trade.

I'm sure Calgary would also love this trade...


This coming season will likely be the best the leafs have had since Shanahan has been here, as this team has gotten better every single year since he arrived.

 

[zeke]

Mess is right, without the gift of a very weak Northern Division this team will have all they can handles getting a wildcard spot this upcoming season.

1. Mess was wrong when he said the very same thing last year.

2. There is zero evidence that the North was in any way weak.

 

[Arzak]

I think at 34 he might still be worth 1-2 million per year. But when his fitness drops off I expect the Spezza deal especially if he expects the front office job like the one Spezza will eventually get

Agree. The problem he'll be 36 when the 2025-2026 season starts. While one could agree he might still be worth 1-2million per year, his AVV will be 11 between his 34 and 36th birthdays ..

 

[Dreakmur]

2. There is zero evidence that the North was in any way weak.

The teams were weak. Doesn't that make the division weak?

 

[zeke]

The teams were weak. Doesn't that make the division weak?

The teams in the North, West, and Central all had pretty much identical cumulative records in 19-20.

And the consensus was that the majority of the North teams improved in the offseason after the 19-20 season coming into the 20-21 season.

 

[Mess]

Mess is right, without the gift of a very weak Northern Division this team will have all they can handles getting a wildcard spot this upcoming season.

In the all CDN Div I thought it was Final 4 or Bust for me, and if the Leafs didn't coast through the regular season having to beat out only 3 weak CDN teams, and then make it the the final 4 against this level of competition the season would be considered a disappointment.

There wasn't even wildcards and a CDN team was gifted a final 4 spot guaranteed with 4 playoff spots also guaranteed. All the strongest and best teams reside in the USA and that is why a CDN team hasn't won the Stanley Cup in 28 years dating back to 1993. Leafs were never going to get a better opportunity than this last year to make playoff noise.

Now that we return to normal, there is going to be a real awakening and Leafs are going to take on the full NHL again and this time Leafs enter a make and break full 82 game season with a soon to be 30 year career backup goalie with an injury history, and never started more than 25 games in a single season as their new starter and currently no known backup other than Micheal Hutchinson.

"Good teams are built from the goalie out" and this year the core 4 cap consumption is going to test this to its limits.
&
Because of the core 4 cost, the middle of Leafs roster has been gutted out and its forward depth is so shallow that Leafs can't even protect 7-3-1 for the expansion draft if they wanted to. Its really the core 4 and Kerfoot and it might very well be Kerfoot the one lost to Seattle leaving nothing but the Haves and Haves Nots, and those 4 forwards left to carry almost the full weight of the offense.

 

[zeke]

In the all CDN Div I thought it was Final 4 or Bust for me, and if the Leafs didn't coast through the regular season having to beat out only 3 weak CDN teams, and then make it the the final 4 against this level of competition the season would be considered a disappointment.

There wasn't even wildcards and a CDN team was gifted a final 4 spot guaranteed with 4 playoff spots also guaranteed. All the strongest and best teams reside in the USA and that is why a CDN team hasn't won the Stanley Cup in 28 years dating back to 1993. Leafs were never going to get a better opportunity than this last year to make playoff noise.

Now that we return to normal, there is going to be a real awakening and Leafs are going to take on the full NHL again and this time Leafs enter a make and break full 82 game season with a soon to be 30 year career backup goalie with an injury history, and never started more than 25 games in a single season as their new starter and currently no known backup other than Micheal Hutchinson.

"Good teams are built from the goalie out" and this year the core 4 cap consumption is going to test this to its limits.
&
Because of the core 4 cost, the middle of Leafs roster has been gutted out and its forward depth is so shallow that Leafs can't even protect 7-3-1 for the expansion draft if they wanted to. Its really the core 4 and Kerfoot and it might very well be Kerfoot the one lost to Seattle leaving nothing but the Haves and Haves Nots, and those 4 forwards left to carry almost the full weight of the offense.

Public Service Announcement:

No matter how much Mess tries to memory-hole it, he in fact predicted the leafs would be battling for a playoffs spot all year in the North division.

 

[Dreakmur]

The teams in the North, West, and Central all had pretty much identical cumulative records in 19-20.

And the consensus was that the majority of the North teams improved in the offseason after the 19-20 season coming into the 20-21 season.

Edmonton was the best team to join the North division, and they were 12th place in 2020.

 

[zeke]

Edmonton was the best team to join the North division, and they were 12th place in 2020.

My statement of fact stands.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Doesnt this just support the trade Marner narrative?

what everyone’s been saying is that half the cap on 4 FORWARDS is unprecedented.

You respond by showing a team with (not quite) half the cap on TWO forwards, a Norris D, and Vezina goalie?

Its bewildering. Bewildering.

Yeah, Tampa spends that on a C, RW, D & G. We spend it on two C and two RW. The diminishing returns of having two RW that play the same role for 18 million is a huge problem. Need to diversify that spending to get full value.

 

[ACC1224]

Public Service Announcement:

No matter how much Mess tries to memory-hole it, he in fact predicted the leafs would be battling for a playoffs spot all year in the North division.

..... and you predicted they would sweep their way to the finals. Good call there.

 

[Dreakmur]

My statement of fact stands.

You said there was zero evidence. I provided some. You keep standing on that "fact"....

 

[Mickey Marner]

Needn't even compare the North division to the others to determine whether it were weak. You can just compare it to the average Leafs division and pre-season expectations. The last time the Leafs were in such a poor division was when they were in mid-late 80's Norris division and everyone was predicting we would win our first division title in two decades this year. It was understood by everyone, even if tacitly, that this setup was a layup for us.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Agree. The problem he'll be 36 when the 2025-2026 season starts. While one could agree he might still be worth 1-2million per year, his AVV will be 11 between his 34 and 36th birthdays ..

Tavares will be 34 at the start of the last year of his deal (2024/2025). He's a late 90'.

Starting at 35, he won't be making anywhere close to 11 mill.

 

[zeke]

Needn't even compare the North division to the others to determine whether it were weak. You can just compare it to the average Leafs division and pre-season expectations. The last time the Leafs were in such a poor division was when they were in mid-late 80's Norris division and everyone was predicting we would win our first division title in two decades this year. It was understood by everyone, even if tacitly, that this setup was a layup for us.

Actually, you do need to compare it to other divisions to determine whether it's weak.

And please do compare it to the Atlantic division which included Detroit, buffalo, and a much weaker Ottawa.

 

[zeke]

You said there was zero evidence. I provided some. You keep standing on that "fact"....

You provided partial data, I provided complete data.

 

[zeke]

Doesnt this just support the trade Marner narrative?

what everyone’s been saying is that half the cap on 4 FORWARDS is unprecedented.

You respond by showing a team with (not quite) half the cap on TWO forwards, a Norris D, and Vezina goalie?

Its bewildering. Bewildering.

If you are arguing to trade Marner for another young elite (but expensive) player, I am listening.

 

[egd27]

1. Mess was wrong when he said the very same thing last year.

2. There is zero evidence that the North was in any way weak.

That depends on what you are willing to accept as evidence.

In a "normal" alignment, Florida, Tampa, & Boston were all Top 10 teams this year while having to face 2 other Top 10 teams within their division.

Not one team that the Leafs played this season cracked the NHL's top 10. IMO, that is reasonable evidence of an overall weak division.

I await your overly complex analysis to deny a simple observation.