How much faith do you have in the core 4?

[rumman]

1. Mess was wrong when he said the very same thing last year.

2. There is zero evidence that the North was in any way weak.

Sometimes your takes make me wonder if your living in a alternate universe, but to each his own.

 

[zeke]

That depends on what you are willing to accept as evidence.

In a "normal" alignment, Florida, Tampa, & Boston were all Top 10 teams this year while having to face 2 other Top 10 teams within their division.

Not one team that the Leafs played this season cracked the NHL's top 10. IMO, that is reasonable evidence of an overall weak division.

I await your overly complex analysis to deny a simple observation.

Not sure what you're talking about tbh.

North v Atlantic

#4 TOR ----- #4 TOR
#7 EDM ---- #8 TBL
#13 WPG -- #9 FLA
#15 MTL -- #11 BOS
#19 CGY --- #15 MTL
#23 OTT --- #23 OTT
#26 VAN --- #25 DET
N/A ---------- #31 BUF


North last year vs Atlantic last year

#12 EDM --- #1 BOS
#13 TOR --- #3 TBL
#15 VAN --- #13 TOR
#18 CGY --- #17 FLA
#20 WPG -- #24 MTL
#24 MTL --- #26 BUF
#30 OTT --- #30 OTT
N/a ----------- #31 DET

 

[zeke]

Sometimes your takes make me wonder if your living in a alternate universe, but to each his own.

In your universe Montreal beating and outplaying the golden knights was a shocker, right?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Its good that fans have short memories, because when the pandemic first hit and the season ended at 70 games the Leafs were ranked #8 on pts% and would have been the last team in the East that would have qualified for the playoffs, without the play-in round. Still despite having the #3rd highest scoring team thanks to that core 4, still lost to the 3rd lowest scoring team and team ranked below them.

The all CDN Div this past seems have given the fan base a false sense of security, where Leafs only played 6 other CDN teams in the regular season to claim the Div only to lose in round #1 to the #18th ranked team where in a normal season only 16 teams qualify.

So far the only thing the core 4 have been good enough at is scoring a lot of regular season points, which is buying the Leafs a playoff spot (even if it was a close call), but required spending 1/2 your cap to do it, which every other playoff team East and West is not required to do, to secure their playoff birth.

Now we return to normalcy of a full 82 game season and play the entire NHL again and re-join the Atlantic where the 2 teams that competed for the Cup this year reside.

This year will be the true test of the core 4 if they can carry the team to a playoff spot as the QofC gets cranked up and the margin for error small. If the Leafs fail to make the playoffs or are again another easy out in round #1 we will have our answer as to how much faith one has in this core because the results will speak for themselves and the experiment will officially be over thereafter.

PS. As of today and current roster construction I see our Leafs in a season long battle for a wild card spot with a group of teams in that same boat just to get in to the playoffs.

Well said.

However, I can see the Leafs finishing anywhere from first (yes I said it) to sixth or even seventh (yes, I said that too) in the Atlantic.

They'll probably still get dumped in the first round.

 

[PromisedLand]

Does not understand.

dubas fans rarely spare thoughts to reason and logic. for them dubas is the alpha and omega and everybody else can go to hell

sometiems i wonder if this is a TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS board or a Kyle Dubas support group board

Dubas has absolutely ruined any promise this club had and yet people pump his tires to the detriment of the team and team's future. nothing disgusts me more than those posts

 

[PromisedLand]

They'll likely be shedding 2-4 roster players

I wish Leafs can win a cup or two and then have to deal with "shedding 2-4 roster players"

it is amazing how you keep supporting the incompetence that is dubas and co

 

[PromisedLand]

I wonder if Tavares gives us the Spezza hometown discount when this current deal expires?

Spezza can still skate given his age. Spezza will outskate tavares when he is 50

 

[egd27]

Not one team that the Leafs played this season cracked the NHL's top 10. IMO, that is reasonable evidence of an overall weak division.

I await your overly complex analysis to deny a simple observation.

Not sure what you're talking about tbh.

North v Atlantic

#4 TOR ----- #4 TOR
#7 EDM ---- #8 TBL
#13 WPG -- #9 FLA
#15 MTL -- #11 BOS
#19 CGY --- #15 MTL
#23 OTT --- #23 OTT
#26 VAN --- #25 DET
N/A ---------- #31 BUF


North last year vs Atlantic last year

#12 EDM --- #1 BOS
#13 TOR --- #3 TBL
#15 VAN --- #13 TOR
#18 CGY --- #17 FLA
#20 WPG -- #24 MTL
#24 MTL --- #26 BUF
#30 OTT --- #30 OTT
N/a ----------- #31 DET

Well at least there's an element of consistency.


You're not sure what I'm talking about? Toronto did not have to play another Top 10 team in their entire 56 game season. In fact 2/3's of their opponents did not finish in the Top Half of the league.

Edm - 11th
Win - 14th
Mon - 18th
Cal - 20th
Ott - 23rd
Van - 24th

IMO, that is evidence of a weak division.

Does that help you understand what I'm talking about or do I need to go into how the actual standings correlate to a team's ability to win games and act as an indicator of their relative strength within the league?

 

[Racer88]

The simple fact that we are even talking about fighting for a wild card spot or possibly missing the playoffs next season is disappointing. Now add the fact that Dubas is paying our core 4 players 50% of the cap and it becomes downright disgusting and riddled with incompetence

 

[Mess]

Well said.

However, I can see the Leafs finishing anywhere from first (yes I said it) to sixth or even seventh (yes, I said that too) in the Atlantic.

They'll probably still get dumped in the first round.

The Leafs are using 1/2 their cap on just 4 forwards in an attempt to buy a playoff spot, they need that top heavy approach to generate enough offense to secure a playoff spot by outspending everybody else on planet in high-end talent at the expense of depth and other positions.

That makes our Leafs Regular Season Warriors and sadly Paper Tigers and all bark and no bite come playoff time, because the wide open end to end rush, low impact style they flourish under during the season, becomes tight checking, hard hitting, low scoring, defense first where they check out when the going gets tough.

So when one asks do you have faith in the core 4 how could one, if they place their priority on playoff success, and not fancy individual stats during the regular season?

So while some feel compelled to claim its not the core 4's fault and point to regular season stats, and thus blaming the poor team results on the rest of the team, that is precisely the biggest problem of the core 4 in that they cost soooooooo much cap that you can't surround them with a Cup competitive team, while they're not built of playoff style hockey themselves.

 

[4thline]

Well at least there's an element of consistency.


You're not sure what I'm talking about? Toronto did not have to play another Top 10 team in their entire 56 game season. In fact 2/3's of their opponents did not finish in the Top Half of the league.

Edm - 11th
Win - 14th
Mon - 18th
Cal - 20th
Ott - 23rd
Van - 24th

IMO, that is evidence of a weak division.

Does that help you understand what I'm talking about or do I need to go into how the actual standings correlate to a team's ability to win games and act as an indicator of their relative strength within the league?

Aggregate standings of what was essentially 4 leagues operating in vacuum is a fools indicator

 

[ShaneFalco]

Shanny and Dubas's messages in the last 2 end of season pressers:

-losing will teach them how to win
-noone is "disposing" of 2 great players (AM, MM) and Shanny - we're going to do it with this core
-need to develop a killer instinct
-need to stand up for eachother
- Shanny - These guys really want to win. They really want to become the team that they're capable of becoming. (2020)
Shanny - I do believe you can develop grit. and "compete level and grit are areas that we might have to help our team a little bit with." (2020)
"We like them and we want to keep them here. They're special players and they're all deeply, deeply committed to winning here in Toronto and it's important for us as a management group to continue to develop them."


So they need help wit compete levels, grit, killer instinct, standing up for eachother but they're deeply deeply committed to winning.

 

[egd27]

Aggregate standings of what was essentially 4 leagues operating in vacuum is a fools indicator

And yet the NHL used those results to seed the Final 4 and determine home ice for the SCF.

 

[Mess]

Sometimes your takes make me wonder if your living in a alternate universe, but to each his own.

Apparently some people from an alternate universe, are of the belief I predicted that Leafs would be in a season long wild card battle in an all CDN Div, where no wild card spots existed in this new format on our planet.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

If you are arguing to trade Marner for another young elite (but expensive) player, I am listening.

In my opinion, two first round exits while running a literally unprecedented experiment is a calling for change. Maybe we should NOT be trying unprecedented experiments with an entire “first time at the job” management team.

Move Marner even for a crap ton of picks/prospects if necessary. We just need to end the failed unprecedented experiment and at least have the cap space to sign players to fill holes when available.

Of course, in hindsight I’d much rather keep young Marner than declining Tavares. But the nmc.

Also in hindsight, the Tavares signing may go down as one of the biggest leaf mistakes of the cap era. It’s left us with two options: 1. Continue a literal unprecedented experiment that is clearly not working. 2. Lose one of our super talented young core members.

 

[zeke]

Well at least there's an element of consistency.


You're not sure what I'm talking about? Toronto did not have to play another Top 10 team in their entire 56 game season. In fact 2/3's of their opponents did not finish in the Top Half of the league.

Edm - 11th
Win - 14th
Mon - 18th
Cal - 20th
Ott - 23rd
Van - 24th

IMO, that is evidence of a weak division.

Does that help you understand what I'm talking about or do I need to go into how the actual standings correlate to a team's ability to win games and act as an indicator of their relative strength within the league?

no im sorry it doesn't help me to understand.

Using "top-10" is both arbitrary and wildly incomplete.


I could point out that Toronto didnt get to face any bottom-5 teams in the league, while TB, BOS, FLA all got to face TWO of them, but that would also be arbitrary and incomplete.

 

[zeke]

In my opinion, two first round exits while running a literally unprecedented experiment is a calling for change. Maybe we should NOT be trying unprecedented experiments with an entire “first time at the job” management team.

Move Marner even for a crap ton of picks/prospects if necessary. We just need to end the failed unprecedented experiment and at least have the cap space to sign players to fill holes when available.

Of course, in hindsight I’d much rather keep young Marner than declining Tavares. But the nmc.

Well then, I disagree.

Most all the cup winners under the cap had a high concentration of elite talent with a high concentration of cap%. Our biggest problem the last 2 years was being in a window where we had zero impact ELC players, which is a necessity to win cups. But that was a drafting failure of previous regimes, not the current one, and is likely to change pretty soon.

BUT, if you are arguing that we'd be better off trading Marner for another young elite expensive talent at a different position, then I'm listening.

 

[zeke]

Apparently some people from an alternate universe, are of the belief I predicted that Leafs would be in a season long wild card battle in an all CDN Div, where no wild card spots existed in this new format on our planet.

You predicted the leafs would be in a tough battle for a playoffs spot all year long in the North division.

 

[4thline]

And yet the NHL used those results to seed the Final 4 and determine home ice for the SCF.

They had to do something, and staying as close as they could to "normal" made sense. Doesn't make it a valid point of comparison, or an argument that stands up to scrutiny.

If you accept that by the "standings" Ottawa and Vancouver were a significantly better bottom pair than Buffalo/Jersey, than you accept that point totals of other North division teams were deflated relative to the East because they didn't have doormats to beat up on.

If you accept that by "standings" Edmonton was a significantly worse 2 than Washington, than you accept that point totals of other North division teams were inflated relative to the East because they didn't have as deep of top end to deal with.

There is literally nothing to support either of those completely contradictory views other than subjective opinion. There's no frame of reference to draw meaningful comparison. Pessimists will take the bottom, optimists the top, realists will recognize that the talent band in the NHL is so narrow that with year over year roster changes it really doesn't matter, idiots will contradict themselves and say it was a weak division but also Ottawa was a strong team so we're screwed from both sides.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

In my opinion, two first round exits while running a literally unprecedented experiment is a calling for change. Maybe we should NOT be trying unprecedented experiments with an entire “first time at the job” management team.

Move Marner even for a crap ton of picks/prospects if necessary. We just need to end the failed unprecedented experiment and at least have the cap space to sign players to fill holes when available.

Of course, in hindsight I’d much rather keep young Marner than declining Tavares. But the nmc.

I know people think its excuses, but they've had the "core 4" in 2/5 of the playoff losses (1 vs boston, 1 vs columbus).

They should have beat Columbus, but given that was a 5 game series in the bubble after what - a 2 month break that saw even Pittsburgh lose, I just don't think they should blow up the four because of that.

They should have won this year. They didn't. They didn't have 1 of the "core 4" that are a part of this thread. I think if Tavares is there they probably win one of the 3 one goal games (g1, g5, g6) and then we're not really talking about this being a flawed experiment that cannot win a round.

If they lose next year in the first round - while being healthy - so be it. I do not think this team gets better without Marner. He's overpaid versus his comparables, but he still provides surplus value over his contract - just less than Braydon Point/others. That doesn't mean they're going to be able to move him and obtain >Marner's value for 10.9M.

I get why people are frustrated and have no issue with people wanting to move Marner/not believing in the setup. I'd give them another year. Last year everyone said Willy couldn't play in the playoffs - then he was their best player.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I know people think its excuses, but they've had the "core 4" in 2/5 of the playoff losses (1 vs boston, 1 vs columbus).

They should have beat Columbus, but given that was a 5 game series in the bubble after what - a 2 month break that saw even Pittsburgh lose, I just don't think they should blow up the four because of that.

They should have won this year. They didn't. They didn't have 1 of the "core 4" that are a part of this thread. I think if Tavares is there they probably win one of the 3 one goal games (g1, g5, g6) and then we're not really talking about this being a flawed experiment that cannot win a round.

If they lose next year in the first round - while being healthy - so be it. I do not think this team gets better without Marner. He's overpaid versus his comparables, but he still provides surplus value over his contract - just less than Braydon Point/others. That doesn't mean they're going to be able to move him and obtain >Marner's value for 10.9M.

I get why people are frustrated and have no issue with people wanting to move Marner/not believing in the setup. I'd give them another year. Last year everyone said Willy couldn't play in the playoffs - then he was their best player.

My problem is that everyone said “ONLY one more year” after the Columbus calamity. Yet here we are after another 1st round loss, and look what happened. An excuse was found to say “Well, let’s give it one MORE year yet again.” I’m 100% confident that if the leafs lose in the first round next year, people like you will just dig for another excuse.
Look what you’ve used so far. Last year “Covid break affected the leafs but not competition.” This year “Nevermind Tampa winning the cup without their Captain #1 C, Tavares was hurt”.

you’ll find something next year. Because things NEVER go 100% according to plan. For any team. Ever. You’ll find something.

 

[rumman]

dubas fans rarely spare thoughts to reason and logic. for them dubas is the alpha and omega and everybody else can go to hell

sometiems i wonder if this is a TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS board or a Kyle Dubas support group board

Dubas has absolutely ruined any promise this club had and yet people pump his tires to the detriment of the team and team's future. nothing disgusts me more than those posts

That’s actually a great idea, let Dubas have his own board, where everything’s alway perfect. It would certainly bring harmony to this board.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

My problem is that everyone said “ONLY one more year” after the Columbus calamity. Yet here we are after another 1st round loss, and look what happened. An excuse was found to say “Well, let’s give it one MORE year yet again.” I’m 100% confident that if the leafs lose in the first round next year, people like you will just dig for another excuse.
Look what you’ve used so far. Last year “Covid break affected the leafs but not competition.” This year “Nevermind Tampa winning the cup without their Capetian #1 C, Tavares was hurt”.

you’ll find something next year. Because things NEVER go 100% according to plan. For any team. Ever. You’ll find something.

Tampa is... really good. Nobody is close to them IMO and I don't think anyone is going to get close to them. They did a tremendous job of getting a group to buy in for cheap, while supplementing them with incredible talent through the draft (Point, Cirelli). I don't think the Leafs should trade Marner because Tampa was able to win without Stamkos - because I don't think trading Marner gets this team any closer to Tampa - personally.

I think people overrate last year's team that lost to Columbus. They were an 8th seed - playing Ceci and Barrie significant minutes. I genuinely think the D is way better now, and this years team was significantly better because of their defensive play.

Vegas lost to MTL in 6 games, playing them worse than Toronto did. They didn't have... Chandler Stephenson (who i like as a player a lot actually, but hes not Tavares). Its not an excuse for losing - but I just don't think trading Marner makes the team better. They need to get young ELC guys to contribute playing bigger roles - and they haven't had that because outside of the big guys they drafted like shit with Mark Hunter. Hopefully Robertson and Sandin are big contributors next year honestly.

 

[IPS]

They had to do something, and staying as close as they could to "normal" made sense. Doesn't make it a valid point of comparison, or an argument that stands up to scrutiny.

If you accept that by the "standings" Ottawa and Vancouver were a significantly better bottom pair than Buffalo/Jersey, than you accept that point totals of other North division teams were deflated relative to the East because they didn't have doormats to beat up on.

If you accept that by "standings" Edmonton was a significantly worse 2 than Washington, than you accept that point totals of other North division teams were inflated relative to the East because they didn't have as deep of top end to deal with.

There is literally nothing to support either of those completely contradictory views other than subjective opinion. There's no frame of reference to draw meaningful comparison. Pessimists will take the bottom, optimists the top, realists will recognize that the talent band in the NHL is so narrow that with year over year roster changes it really doesn't matter, idiots will contradict themselves and say it was a weak division but also Ottawa was a strong team so we're screwed from both sides.

Maybe Jersey and Buffalo were so much worse point-wise is because they had to play a stronger group of teams all year long? It's the same 6 or 7 teams that everybody played all year, the point totals are going to be different across all divisions.

Seems extremely arrogant and condescending to intentionally not take things like that into consideration while presenting something subjective like a cold-hard fact.

 

[IPS]

In your universe Montreal beating and outplaying the golden knights was a shocker, right?

Sometimes shit teams get hot in the playoffs and punch above their weight. Happens every year really.